Welcome back, John.
So, $72 million with almost $35 million guaranteed. That is the deal Matt Ryan signed with the Falcons.
I thought it was a horrible move by the Falcons to draft him at number 3 and I think it is even more horrible now.
It is just too expensive these days to take a QB early in the first round. And that is even more true because of the uncertainty of whether those players will be successful or not.
I think most everyone agrees that QB is one of the most difficult positions to play in the NFL. It takes time for the players to acclimate to the professional game. The first couple of years are typically learning years and they don't really start to pan out (if they do at all) until around their third season.
Drafting a QB is a real crapshoot, especially drafting one in the first round.
It is still too early to call for the 2006 and 2007 drafts. But if we go back 20 years from the 2005 draft (essentially 1986 through 2005), here is what you've got:
1986
(3) Jim Everett - Not a bust
(12) Chuck Long - Bust
1987
(1) Vinny Testeverde - Overall you can't exactly call his career a bust (though he really had only two outstanding seasons), but he was most certainly a bust for the Buccaneers (the team that drafted him)
(6) Kelly Stouffer - Bust
(13) Chris Miller - Not exactly a bust (but not a major success either)
(26) Jim Harbaugh - Based on the numbers he is probably a borderline bust (though he did take the Colts to the AFC Championship game)
1988
no QB drafted in first round (in fact, the first QB was not taken until the third round)
1989
(1) Troy Aikman - Hall of Famer
1990
(1) Jeff George - a punk, a jerk, and a loser (the famous John McClain quote)
(7) Andre Ware - Bust (sorry 'Dre)
1991
(16) Dan McGwire - Bust
(24) Todd Marinovich - Bust
(Brett Favre was taken in the second round of this draft)
1992
(6) David Klingler - Bust
(25) Tommy Maddox - Bust
1993
(1) Drew Bledsoe - Not a bust
(2) Rick Mirer - Bust
1994
(3) Heath Shuler - Bust
(6) Trent Dilfer - I'm gonna go with bust (he certainly didn't do anything for the Buccaneers and they were the team who drafted him)
1995
(3) Steve McNair - Homerun (though not a Hall of Famer)
(5) Kerry Collins - Not a bust
1996
No QB drafted in first round
1997
(26) Jim Druckenmiller - Bust
1998
(1) Peyton Manning - future Hall of Famer
(2) Ryan Leaf - Bust
1999
(1)Tim Couch - Bust
(2) Donovan McNabb - Not a bust (Hall of Famer??)
(3) Akili Smith - Bust
(11) Daunte Culpepper - Not a bust (had 3 outstanding seasons with the Vikings - coaching change and a knee injury seem to have derailed his career)
(12) Cade McNown - Bust
2000
(18) Chad Pennington - Not a bust
2001
(1) Michael Vick - Not a bust (though he got busted)
(Drew Brees was taken with the first pick of the second round)
2002
(1) David Carr - Bust (I blame Casserly for never getting him any offensive line help --- we'll never really know what he might have been had he played behind a good offensive line his first few seasons)
(3) Joey Harrington - Bust
(32) Patrick Ramsey - Bust
2003
(1) Carson Palmer - Not a bust
(7) Byron Leftwich - Can go either way (I guess given that he was the 7th pick and is no longer with the Jags, I'd lean to bust)
(19) Kyle Boller - Bust
(22) Rex Grossman - I'd say Bust (the team did make the Super Bowl with him, but that was more because of the defense and Devin Hester than anything else)
2004
(1) Eli Manning - Can't really call a Super Bowl winner a bust -- but he still hasn't quite taken the leap
(4) Philip Rivers - Wouldn't call him a bust at this point
(11) Ben Roethlisberger - Not a bust
(22) J.P. Losman - Bust
2005
(1) Alex Smith - I'm ready to call him a bust
(24) Aaron Rogers - Jury is still out (this season will tell the tale)
(25) Jason Campbell - Indications are he'll be a credible QB
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Let's add up the damage
16 who were not busts (of those - 2 are definite Hall of Famers)
25 who were busts
2 jury still out (won't include in the final numbers)
16 out of 41 = 39% success rate
Arthur Blank wants to risk almost $35 million in guaranteed money on a 39% success rate.
Of the QBs drafted within the first 3 picks, 10 were not busts and 9 were busts. That is a better average than 39% ... still, $35 million is a lot to risk on a 53% success rate.
I'm still of the opinion that the franchise would have been far better served taking another player (perhaps Glenn Dorsey) with the 3rd pick and then drafting a QB in the second round (they could have had Chad Henne or Joe Flacco --- I'm assuming Baltimore would have drafted Ryan at 8 --- and they would have cost them SUBSTANTIALLY less).
The way I look at it, Ryan isn't going to bring $35 million in value to the Falcons. I'm not just talking about statistics (or wins and losses). I'm talking overall value to the franchise in terms of marketability and such. I don't think he is ever going to be a great QB in the NFL. He might be a a good enough QB to win with as long as they have a good supporting cast around him, but I don't think that is really going to make him any different from Henne and/or Flacco. I think the same could be and probably will be the same with both of those QBs in terms of their chances for success. There was more value with Dorsey at number 3 (he defintely wouldn't have cost them $72 million with almost $35 million of that guaranteed) and then taking a QB in the second round (because if the QB fails, they are not on the hook the way they are now). You also have to take into account that the Falcons have a new coaching staff. So they don't have a track record in terms of developing QBs in their current conglomeration. So again, Blank is risking a ton of money on a major unknown quantity (player + coaching staff).
I really think Blank made a bad business decision and a bad football decision on this one.
Posted by: Hutch at May 21, 2008 01:26 AM
