A lot of folks are unsatisfied (or furious) with the pick because:
(1) they feel Brown is talented, but was a "reach", or
(2) that Brown is just not going to succeed for a long while (not that talented at all). I think most folks are in scenario (1). For those of you that are, you're kinda thinking that if Smithiak really wanted Brown, they should have moved down and grabbed more value.
My specific question is directed at that crowd. You're Smithiak:
- Assume Brown was truly the Texan's target after Williams and Albert. (To me, this seems true)
- Assume Smithiak rated Brown as a high 2nd round pick. (I think this is probably true or very close)
Assume that we could have traded down 10 spots, from 26th to 36th, and picked up a high/mid 3rd round pick. But also assume that there was 50% chance that Brown is not available at 36.
The 50% is arbitrarily made up by me, but consider the following:
- Zero OT's were selected in round 2. To me, this indicates that Brown was the last OT worth a 1st or 2nd round pick. Recall that Baker and Cherilous were both considered 2nd rounders but moved up because of the value placed on OT's.
- St Louis sat at 33, (2nd pick in round 2) and Orlando Pace is getting older; St Louis took OT at the top of 3rd round. The next 3 OT's were taken very late in 4th round.
- SF sat at 39 and could also use an OT/OG (if you're pessimistic) prospect.
(Now that I type this, I'm starting to think that there would have been more than 50% chance of someone grabbing Brown before 36th pick in my hypothetical.)
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I don't think this hypothetical is that far off from reality. Here's my question --
Do you roll the dice and grab that extra 3rd rounder; or do you take Brown a little higher than you really wanted?
If I'm Smithiak, I take Brown at 26. Here's why -- We have alex gibbs for 2 years or so. NOW is the time to get our OT, to give Gibbs talent to mold into a ZBS unit. That's why we got the new center. Now with Brown in to the fold, we have the right talent base to develop that unit.
The alternative is to wait until next year. That's another year's delay in the ZBS unit. I've had enough of not being able to run the ball and not having the future LT in the fold.
Thoughts from the gallery?
(I love football and know a fair amount about sports generally, but Bball is what I know best; I'd be very curious to hear from the experts around here on this).
(1) they feel Brown is talented, but was a "reach", or
(2) that Brown is just not going to succeed for a long while (not that talented at all). I think most folks are in scenario (1). For those of you that are, you're kinda thinking that if Smithiak really wanted Brown, they should have moved down and grabbed more value.
My specific question is directed at that crowd. You're Smithiak:
- Assume Brown was truly the Texan's target after Williams and Albert. (To me, this seems true)
- Assume Smithiak rated Brown as a high 2nd round pick. (I think this is probably true or very close)
Assume that we could have traded down 10 spots, from 26th to 36th, and picked up a high/mid 3rd round pick. But also assume that there was 50% chance that Brown is not available at 36.
The 50% is arbitrarily made up by me, but consider the following:
- Zero OT's were selected in round 2. To me, this indicates that Brown was the last OT worth a 1st or 2nd round pick. Recall that Baker and Cherilous were both considered 2nd rounders but moved up because of the value placed on OT's.
- St Louis sat at 33, (2nd pick in round 2) and Orlando Pace is getting older; St Louis took OT at the top of 3rd round. The next 3 OT's were taken very late in 4th round.
- SF sat at 39 and could also use an OT/OG (if you're pessimistic) prospect.
(Now that I type this, I'm starting to think that there would have been more than 50% chance of someone grabbing Brown before 36th pick in my hypothetical.)
----------------
I don't think this hypothetical is that far off from reality. Here's my question --
Do you roll the dice and grab that extra 3rd rounder; or do you take Brown a little higher than you really wanted?
If I'm Smithiak, I take Brown at 26. Here's why -- We have alex gibbs for 2 years or so. NOW is the time to get our OT, to give Gibbs talent to mold into a ZBS unit. That's why we got the new center. Now with Brown in to the fold, we have the right talent base to develop that unit.
The alternative is to wait until next year. That's another year's delay in the ZBS unit. I've had enough of not being able to run the ball and not having the future LT in the fold.
Thoughts from the gallery?
(I love football and know a fair amount about sports generally, but Bball is what I know best; I'd be very curious to hear from the experts around here on this).
