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I do not think Texans will select a Corner

Joe, I moved your thread to the Draft forum.

I think Joe is right. Psychotic, but right. The Texans would prefer that one of the LTs fall to them at #18. The problem is that scenario is not likely. And it's also possible that the top 4 CBs are off the board, as well. Then what? I have no idea.

Joe, don't be so negative about mock drafts. They're the cornerstone of a drafnik's nutritious offseason.
 
agreed...if there are two QBs taken in the top fifteen we'll have a shot at the olt.
If they don't...Better get use to the thought of the King Dunlops and Tony Hills of the NFL world. By far.... CB is the teams most glaring need i.e. the biggest hole. Unless you believe that the CB they bought from the cow polks is the second coming of Samuels...nothing has changed that fact. From my tree ...they bought a warm body. My only hope is that the new guy is worthy enough to clean the toe jam out of Von Hutchins' toe nails. Untill I read different, that is what he is...Hutchin's replacement. Not a front line NFL starter.
 
Love the toe-jam refrence

I hope I'm wrong & Reeves plays better than toe-jam.

Of course I'm biased, my ex- wifes madien name was Reeves & I consider her to be a form of toe-jam.
 
I agree that the Texans may be targeting a LT with their 1st. Rick said in one of the early off season interviews that the LT position had been ignored long enough & indicated that it would be addressed this off season. Thus far in free agency, they've made no real serious run at a LT. Thus, it would tend to make one think they've got that position earmarked to go after in the 1st.

I think they'll work the 18th pick in this order:

1) LT: One of Long, Clady, or Williams.

2) CB: If the targeted LT's are gone, they go after McKelvin or DRC, both of which should be gone before the 18th pick.

3) Trade Down: Assuming the 5 players mentioned are gone, I believe they'll work a trade down deal to pick up an extra pick.

4) RB: Assuming 1-3 don't work out, with Brown, Taylor, Green, & Walker holding down the position, they have the luxury of taking Stewart & waiting until he heals up from his surgery (mid-season?).

However, as Lucky has alluded to, the top 4 LT's (Long, Clady, Otah, & Williams) may very well be gone by the 18th pick, as well as the top 2 CB's.

That brings me to #3 & a half-witted trade down scenario that I wouldn't mind seeing play out. If we assume that Stewart is still on the board at #18 (I think he will be) & Seattle really wants him, they'll most likely need to move ahead of Dallas, Tennessee, & whomever else might want Stewart. This could tie in with another potential trade scenario that's out there.

Houston trades #18 (900 pts) to Seattle for #25 (720 pts), their 3rd #86 (160 pts), & their 5th #150 (31 pts). That's 900 pts for 911 pts.

Now, here's where it really get's half-witted. We then call Minnesota & propose this deal:

Houston trades Sage & the just acquired 3rd #86 (160 pts) from Seattle to Minnesota in exchange for their 2nd #47 (440 pts).

So, by trading back 7 spots in the 1st, we pick up the 2nd we've been trying to get, & replace the 5th we traded for our new starting center. I'd do it.

One last thought. By trading back, we still have the same needs to fill (LT, CB, long term RB). At #25, we could take either Branden Albert (G/LT), Anthony Collins (LT) or Sam Baker (LT). Yes, I said Sam Baker. No one is talking about him & he's dropped quite a bit. He could be the steal of the draft at #25.

With the 2nd round pick #47, we'd be able to take one of the 2nd tier CB's like Porter, Godfrey, Cason, or Flowers.
 
The Pencil Neck said:
?

We wanted their 2nd for Sage straight up but now we're going to give them Sage AND a 3rd for their 2nd? I don't think so.
Click to expand...

The 2nd is the asking price we threw out there. No one in their right mind is going to give a 2nd round pick for a 30 year old career back up QB, to be a backup on their roster. He's had 1 decent year out of 7. Think again.

In this scenario, the 3rd might be what it takes to be able to move up & select a player that is 49 players better than what we'd get at #86.

We'd still have our own 3rd round pick (#79).
 
Hottoddie said:
The 2nd is the asking price we threw out there. No one in their right mind is going to give a 2nd round pick for a 30 year old career back up QB, to be a backup on their roster. He's had 1 decent year out of 7. Think again.
Click to expand...

I think the point is that they set the price for Sage really high because they don't want to get rid of him unless someone's willing to give up something ridiculous for him.

In your scenario, I could see the trade with Seattle but I think they'd stop there and just use the two 3rds and the extra 5th but I don't buy the second trade.
 
My thought right now is one of the top Ts will drop. It's been supposed that Carolina takes Williams and kicks Travelle Wharton inside.

They have signed Milford Brown and Fonoti. Maybe I am making a leap here but with Starter Evan Mathis at one side it leaves the other TBD. Both of those guys have starting experience. I'm starting to doubt Wharton is moved inside like some people have discussed therefore having Williams selected to go to Carolina. I think they could very well Pick Brohm.
 
I think its pretty much a lock that we are drafting a CB at #18. It's the biggest need and I just don't see Gibbs coming in as the new guy on the block and asking them to use their top pick on a young LT. Just doesn't seem his style based on his past at Denver and briefly Atlanta. Work with what you got and find players that can fit your system later in the draft.

(disclaimer) - if the Texans trade down, all bets are off of course. I just don't see anyone possibly around at #18 that would entice someone to jump on in a trade-up scenario. Would love for it to happen though. A bunch of good 2nd tier LT prospects graded in the 2nd-4th Rounds (just like Winston and Spencer were in 2006). I would love for us to go defense at #18, then OL in both the 3rd and 4th Rounds then maybe Hart from Michigan is available in the 6th Round. Draft the best athlete remaining in the 7th and you are golden. You got yourself a top prospects on defense and a few quality prospects for the offense including 2 OL to coach up under Gibbs (not to mention spending your 5th on a proven NFL starter at Center..a position of need for years.

Until we can stop people from driving down the field on us at will, it won't matter how many LT prospects we draft. CB or a DE/OLB at #18 unless someone just drops in your lap. We need to fix the defense so Kubiak and Gibbs can shepherd the offense along with the talent we already have. I don't want Richard Smith to have any more excuses for his poor results as DC. Right now, our coverage schemes are just horrible and unproductive. Blaming poor play on injuries or derth of talent will get you nowhere. At some point a change is needed if poor results continue. I don't want it to come to that. Let's get RS some help and see what the guy can do, once and for all.
 
Goldensilence said:
My thought right now is one of the top Ts will drop.
Click to expand...
Let's look at the teams above the Texans that could draft a OT.

St. Louis - Said to be considering Jake Long.
Atlanta - Also considering Long.
Kansas City - Long doesn't get past here. Could still go OT with Long off the board.
Baltimore - Ogden retirement looms.
Denver - Could go LT if they can't move up for a top DT.
Carolina - "Carolina takes Williams and kicks Travelle Wharton inside." - Goldensilence
Chicago - Need an OT opposite whatever side Tait ends up at.
Detroit - Need a RT opposite Backus, who could replace him at LT in a year or 2.

That's 8 teams with 4 OTs available. Obviously, these teams have other needs than OT. Still, only 50% have to go that route to leave the Texans without a OT a #18. And what if the guy who drops is Jeff Otah?

Yes, he compares favorably to Charles Spencer, another Pitt OT the Texans selected just 2 years ago. But, have the Texans soured on jumbo type o-linemen? Spencer has had difficulty keeping his weight down and the Texans may have decided that leaner, Gibbsesque linemen are the prototypes.

Taking all of this into consideration, a 1st round OT may not be in the texans future.
 
I believe that the Texans will take BPA (with few exceptions to the tiny number positions where the Texans are fairly set, though they could stand to upgrade at just about every position on the field.)

Though I am not as optimistic as Dunta Robinson (thinking he is going to play 10-12 games next season), I do think that the Texans reject the notion that they have to pick cornerback first no matter who is available because that is their biggest need.

They have thumbed their nose at conventional wisdom in the past as well.

Who picked Amobi Okoye in their mock drafts last year? Most people thought he was going to be gone already. He dropped, and he was at the top of the Texans' board for defense.

Notably, right after John McClain said that the Texans would most certainly pick cornerback with their first pick, on HT.com, the Texans had a video of Jon Hoke talking about the draft. Talking about how there were likely going to be good secondary players in lower rounds.

Smokescreen or reality?

I discussed this about a month ago at FanHouse. Link here.

I believe that the way that the Texans have been working their offseason moves is to acquire free agents that don't force their hand in the draft. That the free agents they get may not be the best, but they are the best at the price the Texans can pay, and they can maybe help prevent the Texans from reaching for need, and afford them the ability to take the BPA, especially if it is a high value one drops for some reason.

All that being said, barring a blasted miracle, I really do not have particularly high expectations for the Texans secondary. Even if they draft a guy high, it is still going to be a bunch of young guys and old guys and a dude trying to come back from injury trying to keep the lid on.
 
Lucky said:
Let's look at the teams above the Texans that could draft a OT.

St. Louis - Said to be considering Jake Long.
Atlanta - Also considering Long.
Kansas City - Long doesn't get past here. Could still go OT with Long off the board.
Baltimore - Ogden retirement looms.
Denver - Could go LT if they can't move up for a top DT.
Carolina - "Carolina takes Williams and kicks Travelle Wharton inside." - Goldensilence
Chicago - Need an OT opposite whatever side Tait ends up at.
Detroit - Need a RT opposite Backus, who could replace him at LT in a year or 2.

That's 8 teams with 4 OTs available. Obviously, these teams have other needs than OT. Still, only 50% have to go that route to leave the Texans without a OT a #18. And what if the guy who drops is Jeff Otah?

Yes, he compares favorably to Charles Spencer, another Pitt OT the Texans selected just 2 years ago. But, have the Texans soured on jumbo type o-linemen? Spencer has had difficulty keeping his weight down and the Texans may have decided that leaner, Gibbsesque linemen are the prototypes.

Taking all of this into consideration, a 1st round OT may not be in the texans future.
Click to expand...


Sam Baker has dropped because of what a deep class of Tackles. Add Collins and Carl Nicks into the mix and some of the top teams might consider them as viable second round options.How about Duane Brown?

I think Chicago might prefer Jeff Otah if they aren't in love with Drafting Mendenhall. I would think they prefer the bigger mauler type.

Baltimore drafted Jared Gaither in the supplemental draft. Might go Brohm or CB help.

As far as Carolina. I'm not the only one saying that.
http://walterfootball.com/draft2008.php
Again though they just signed help at Guard so I'm starting to think that becomes less of a possibility.

Malcom Kelly might look interesting to the Lions...JK. Well Maybe. They could go RB.
 
Goldensilence said:
As far as Carolina. I'm not the only one saying that.
http://walterfootball.com/draft2008.php
Again though they just signed help at Guard so I'm starting to think that becomes less of a possibility.
Click to expand...
All I saw in the link you provided was Denver, Carolina, and Chicago taking consecutive OTs off the board.

The Panthers hinging their draft plans on the Brown and Fonoti signings seems far fetched. Fonoti hasn't been a factor in the league since 2004. Brown's claim to fame is that he can play 3 positions on the O-line poorly. The reason the Panthers may not go OT in the 1st round likely rests on how much they may like Rashard Mendenhall. If he's available.
 
Hottoddie said:
I agree that the Texans may be targeting a LT with their 1st. Rick said in one of the early off season interviews that the LT position had been ignored long enough & indicated that it would be addressed this off season. Thus far in free agency, they've made no real serious run at a LT. Thus, it would tend to make one think they've got that position earmarked to go after in the 1st.

I think they'll work the 18th pick in this order:

1) LT: One of Long, Clady, or Williams.

2) CB: If the targeted LT's are gone, they go after McKelvin or DRC, both of which should be gone before the 18th pick.

3) Trade Down: Assuming the 5 players mentioned are gone, I believe they'll work a trade down deal to pick up an extra pick.

4) RB: Assuming 1-3 don't work out, with Brown, Taylor, Green, & Walker holding down the position, they have the luxury of taking Stewart & waiting until he heals up from his surgery (mid-season?).

However, as Lucky has alluded to, the top 4 LT's (Long, Clady, Otah, & Williams) may very well be gone by the 18th pick, as well as the top 2 CB's.

That brings me to #3 & a half-witted trade down scenario that I wouldn't mind seeing play out. If we assume that Stewart is still on the board at #18 (I think he will be) & Seattle really wants him, they'll most likely need to move ahead of Dallas, Tennessee, & whomever else might want Stewart. This could tie in with another potential trade scenario that's out there.

Houston trades #18 (900 pts) to Seattle for #25 (720 pts), their 3rd #86 (160 pts), & their 5th #150 (31 pts). That's 900 pts for 911 pts.

Now, here's where it really get's half-witted. We then call Minnesota & propose this deal:

Houston trades Sage & the just acquired 3rd #86 (160 pts) from Seattle to Minnesota in exchange for their 2nd #47 (440 pts).

So, by trading back 7 spots in the 1st, we pick up the 2nd we've been trying to get, & replace the 5th we traded for our new starting center. I'd do it.

One last thought. By trading back, we still have the same needs to fill (LT, CB, long term RB). At #25, we could take either Branden Albert (G/LT), Anthony Collins (LT) or Sam Baker (LT). Yes, I said Sam Baker. No one is talking about him & he's dropped quite a bit. He could be the steal of the draft at #25.

With the 2nd round pick #47, we'd be able to take one of the 2nd tier CB's like Porter, Godfrey, Cason, or Flowers.
Click to expand...
I'm ok with your trade downs but if I am seeing this correctly with the Sage and a 3rd for Vikings 2nd, Smith turned down a 3rd for Sage and did not say Sage is off the board. That indicates to me he either wants a two or a player or combo of 3rd and a player. Why would Smith give Sage and a 3rd for a two that is not that high anyway. It may have been brought upf after your post as I have yet to finish the thread but Myers was a 6th not a fifth. I also agree that Baker would be solid in ZBS but may fall to 2nd. If we had 25th and Vikings 2nd, I'd go Baker and then Forte. Although that is subject to change if I think a few minutes.
 
Goldensilence said:
Sam Baker has dropped because of what a deep class of Tackles. Add Collins and Carl Nicks into the mix and some of the top teams might consider them as viable second round options.How about Duane Brown?

I think Chicago might prefer Jeff Otah if they aren't in love with Drafting Mendenhall. I would think they prefer the bigger mauler type.

Baltimore drafted Jared Gaither in the supplemental draft. Might go Brohm or CB help.

As far as Carolina. I'm not the only one saying that.
http://walterfootball.com/draft2008.php
Again though they just signed help at Guard so I'm starting to think that becomes less of a possibility.

Malcom Kelly might look interesting to the Lions...JK. Well Maybe. They could go RB.
Click to expand...
Duane Brown seems to be climbing the boards. http://www.nfldraftscout.com/ratings/profile.php?pyid=11685 I am asking this of all, if some have noted concern over Otah speed, Collins is 1/100th of a second faster and he is getting a lot of notice. Reasons?
 
badboy said:
...I am asking this of all, if some have noted concern over Otah speed, Collins is 1/100th of a second faster and he is getting a lot of notice. Reasons?
Click to expand...
I don't know much about Collins, but Otah got a late start in training due to a high ankle sprain last season. He'll have his workout on 4/9.
 
Lucky said:
I don't know much about Collins, but Otah got a late start in training due to a high ankle sprain last season. He'll have his workout on 4/9.
Click to expand...

I think Collins is right up there with the Williams and Cladys of the draft but for whatever reason people have him going in the 2nd. 2x all americans that came out early are usually solid OLs I would think.
 
Lucky said:
I don't know much about Collins, but Otah got a late start in training due to a high ankle sprain last season. He'll have his workout on 4/9.
Click to expand...
I just have difficulty in seeing a big bruiser in the ZBS. I think LZ voiced concern also. Just in case anyone is going to bring up Charles Spencer, he did not play in the same O we will use and probably would not be a LT anyway, even if he loses some LBs.
 
Lucky said:
All I saw in the link you provided was Denver, Carolina, and Chicago taking consecutive OTs off the board.

The Panthers hinging their draft plans on the Brown and Fonoti signings seems far fetched. Fonoti hasn't been a factor in the league since 2004. Brown's claim to fame is that he can play 3 positions on the O-line poorly. The reason the Panthers may not go OT in the 1st round likely rests on how much they may like Rashard Mendenhall. If he's available.
Click to expand...

I provided it because you quoted me as saying the Panthers wanted to take Williams so they could move Travelle Wharton inside. I wasn't the one with that thought.

Do i think the Brown and Fonoti signings will for sure hinge their draft on having one of those two to start and not move Wharton inside? I don't know but Brown did start last year in St. Louis. I'm not sayin either is an all pro but that could well eliminate the moving Wharton inside scenario.
 
TheRealJoker said:
I think Collins is right up there with the Williams and Cladys of the draft but for whatever reason people have him going in the 2nd. 2x all americans that came out early are usually solid OLs I would think.
Click to expand...

The reason is speed. Collins ran a very slow 5.53 in the 40 at the Combine, and then ran a 5.35 at his Pro Day. These times don't bode well for a ZB scheme and I doubt the Texans will select Collins in any round.

My guess is if Williams, by some miracle, falls to #18, we will take him. If not, then look for us to take a Duane Brown or Jeremy Zuttah in the later rounds, or trade down at #18 and maybe go for Branden Albert later in the 1st. JMHO!
 
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