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How to not become the 49ers

Texanmike02

Texanmike02

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Ok Mr. Smith. Kubiak you too. Here is a step by step guide to avoid becoming next year's 49ers.

1. First be objective about your roster.
There are a few players on this team that are playing out of their mind. They are savy vets that belong as backups and will step up big when asked to start a few but I have serious doubts about their ability to start for a playoff team. Sage, Dayne, Hutchins, Demps all fall into that category. Salaam belongs there too. He is just too old at this point to be starting 16 games. Don't go into next season planning to have them starting.

2. Don't fool yourself into thinking you only have two or three holes.
We are not a superstar away from being in the playoffs. We have several holes on this team. LT/LG/C on the OL alone. Flanagan won't be back and Mckinney won't cut it at C. I know, I heard Spencer talking a few days ago. He will be back next year. But at what strength. We will have cap room but we need to be judicious with this cap money. This team shouldn't have to overspend like we have in the past. Especially if we finish 8-8 or better. After the line RB has to be the next priority. Turner is my first option but there are others out there. Then move back to defense. Don't count on Drob being back at full strength. Oh and we need a safety. Did I mention Oline? And finally get some OLBs with speed.

3. Recognize where the franchise is.
This is an up and coming team. It has an average amount of talent and some guys who know the system now. Bringing in old Broncos when you were installing your system was great. Stop. We now have arguably more talent on the roster than Denver does.

4. Somtimes a splash isn't needed.
We signed Green last offseason. It was a "Splash". The only problem is it was a belly flop. 30 year old RBs aren't going to cut it. It is going to eat between 3 and 5 million of our cap space when he's released. The fans are excited. The town is buzzing. You don't really need a splash this time around. Just upgrade and win. The city will get behind you.

5. Don't buy into your own success.
Yes we will have won 7 games again. We're still not that good. Look at our division record. Don't think that some minor tweaking of the roster will do. Protect your investment in the 48 million dollar arm. Get him a running game threat and some OL help.

We've lost a few close games I know. But this team is still young. We're going to look great one week and terrible the next. From the GM down to the waterboy this organization is starting to learn what it takes to win. I'm not down on the team at all. I think that a playoff run is possible next year if we make signifigant improvement but if we were to start the season over today I still wouldn't pick this team to go to the playoffs.

Mike
 
I don't really agree with much you're saying.

Demps was ousted in NY because he got hurt and didn't get along with Coughlin. He has played great for us and there is no reason to believe he can't do so next year too. He's 28, not 34. He will be back and there's no reason to think he is overachieving right now.

I also don't see what is wrong with our LG position. Pitts is no probowler but he's certainly not the weakest spot on the line. We don't have a RG for next year and if anyone is over the hill it is Salaam. I also don't see why McKinney won't be back and ready to contribute to the level he did this year.

As for Michael Turner, I agree that we need a RB but I'd rather draft one than pay a bloated contract to an older, equally unproven player.

But hey, this is why Smith gets paid to do this kind of stuff and not us.
 
nero THE zero said:
I don't really agree with much you're saying.

Demps was ousted in NY because he got hurt and didn't get along with Coughlin. He has played great for us and there is no reason to believe he can't do so next year too. He's 28, not 34. He will be back and there's no reason to think he is overachieving right now.

I also don't see what is wrong with our LG position. Pitts is no probowler but he's certainly not the weakest spot on the line. We don't have a RG for next year and if anyone is over the hill it is Salaam. I also don't see why McKinney won't be back and ready to contribute to the level he did this year.

So far as Michael Turner goes, I agree that we need a RB but I'd rather draft one than pay a bloated contract to an older, equally unproven player.

But hey, this is why Smith gets paid to do this kind of stuff and not us.
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That's not saying a lot. Our line is pitiful. Being relatively decent on OUR o-line should not be something to note when deciding whether or not to hang onto a player. I wouldn't mind keeping Pitts for back-up purposes, but the entire left side of our line needs help. I am actually satisfied with Winston and I like what I see out of Brisiel. We'll just have to see how things pan out in the off season.
 
Texanmike said:
4. Somtimes a splash isn't needed.
We signed Green last offseason. It was a "Splash". The only problem is it was a belly flop. 30 year old RBs aren't going to cut it. It is going to eat between 3 and 5 million of our cap space when he's released. The fans are excited. The town is buzzing. You don't really need a splash this time around. Just upgrade and win. The city will get behind you.
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Ahman Green was not a splash signing. He was a placeholder they took a gamble on because 1. he knew the system; 2. the rest of the playmakers on offense were young; 3. he was an attempt at an upgrade over the placeholders they currently had.

They hoped they could get two workmanlike seasons from him. They were wrong. When he played, he was better than what they had, but he's messed up.

Every team has placeholder players that they acquire to hope to plug holes and not cause embarrassing rookie mistakes until they get the young guy that can carry the load. The Texans have their share of those guys, and Green didn't work out. The Browns got a mo better deal on the Jamal Lewis thing--a player with similar tread on his tires total rushing.

Green got hurt this season, Jamal Lewis didn't. The Browns got a better contract with Lewis, but then again, the Browns aren't a team who has never had a winning season. The Texans will always pay a little extra until free agents don't see the Texans as a place where their careers quietly go to die.
 
adam said:
That's not saying a lot. Our line is pitiful. Being relatively decent on OUR o-line should not be something to note when deciding whether or not to hang onto a player. I wouldn't mind keeping Pitts for back-up purposes, but the entire left side of our line needs help. I am actually satisfied with Winston and I like what I see out of Brisiel. We'll just have to see how things pan out in the off season.
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We still have Fred Weary and Chris White who didn't completely implode, assuming they come back healthy.
 
I guess I don't see why everyone some think Demps is a back up. Doesn't he have a ring? Didn't he start for one of the most feared defenses ever? Hasn't he been to pro bowls in the past? Demps fell into the Texans lap B/C we were one of the only teams desperate enough to take a one armed safety. In just a few short Weeks after landing here, not only did he start, but he has made more plays than any one else at that position.

I would like to see how Studdard develops over the next off season and Mike has done a fine job of filling in for Weary. I feel bad for Salaam. He is just tired and goes out there and gives it his all on every play. The man has no quite but I think the body is telling him its time to stop. I will be surprised if he does not retire after this year.

Samuel and Briggs would be the only money that I throw around next year. Without DRob, speculation, next year someone has got to fill his shoes. Briggs would give us a legit OLB.
 
build from the inside out- not the outside in like the niners

they have no d-line and a meh o-line.. we have a decent d-line and a meh o-line so we should be ok
 
I agree on a few of your points, but not all. Michael Turner is a pit fall. He will want max cash and hasnt prooven anything except that he caan run behind the 5 bull dozers over there. And Dayne is a compatent starter if you put a speed guy with him.

OLB is in need of an upgrade, but Demps has put together a season where in 9 ish games he is a pro bowl alt. In an off season where you have limited resources, his isnt a position you upgrade. CB is a huge need for sure, and as painful as it is to say it, the guy you are looking for will need to be good since you have to treat Dunta as if he will never come back.

Spencer may end up playing RG, with a LT coming via draft. If its a guy who cant play right away, you could play Pitts there for a year to allow the growth needed.

Add a speed rushing DE in the later rounds of the draft or FA, and move Weaver to the DT rotation and our line will solidify a little.

We are about 6ish players away from serious play off contention. One more off season like we had the past two years and we could be playing in January.
 
Demps is a starter, Sage is a starter that we pay back up wages, good back up wages. Depending on Sages play these last two games we may have a challenge ahead of us. As I have said all along Matt throws high and behind and Sage hits the recievers were they can catch a ball. Von Hutchins has filled nicely for a playmaker corner that we have on IR. Ron Dayne just needs a few more burgers and he will be fine. He is a good punch to compliment a running back which we will search out or breed from within. Mike I think you are to far behind in you analisis. We do need o-line but wee have always needed o-line. Our line has played very well the last two games and it could be a result of what Gary Teaches. I am sure we have a coaching staff that can put a winner on the feild next year and they do not need to be coached themselves. From what I have seen we keep Andre for the games he missed and we are a wild card this year. Health is a critical part of a winning football team. Fred Bennet will Compliment Dunta very well. All I can say is I am excited as I see a team that is coming into its own with a powerful defense who will be hell on the run and the devil on the pass. Lets go Texans
 
I still think Green can be a valuable part of our RB staff...he obviously just can't be a 20 carries a game back, but IMO he still looked good in the first part of the season (pre-injury).
 
Are we talking this year's 49ers or their franchise's history? Based upon the nihilistic posts of the member in the past I will assume it is in relation to this year's 49ers.

Simply do not take any player from Helix HS in San Diego or California at the top of the draft. The Texans learned that lesson from 2002 and selected AJ in 2003 and Mario in 2006. Stay away from the West Coast softies is the best way to build a championship team.
 
Silver Oak said:
I still think Green can be a valuable part of our RB staff...he obviously just can't be a 20 carries a game back, but IMO he still looked good in the first part of the season (pre-injury).
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I think it's one of those situations where if it costs you more to keep him than it does to cut him you hang on and hope he stays healthy next season. You don't let him keep you from drafting a RB in the first or upgrading the position in other ways, but if he's cheaper to keep you do it and hope he stays healthy and gives you a trio of good RBs (Green, Dayne, Rookie/Addition.)
 
Turner will be a FA bust for whomever pays out the ass to get him.

He's a product of the San Diego's line, Lorenzo Neal, and the fact that teams go to sleep on the run game of the Chargers when LT isn't there. Darren Sproles put up monster numbers with the same line and FB.
 
The1ApplePie said:
Turner will be a FA bust for whomever pays out the ass to get him.

He's a product of the San Diego's line, Lorenzo Neal, and the fact that teams go to sleep on the run game of the Chargers when LT isn't there. Darren Sproles put up monster numbers with the same line and FB.
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I'll second this. Michael Turner is more hype than substance, you can see it in the way he carries the ball. I would prefer to either draft Jonathon Stewart out of Oregon or Ray Rice out of Rutgers. I was originally in the Julius Jones camp, but Ron Dayne has done nothing but improve and I have confidence in him to be a good relief back for a stud rookie (should Stewart or Rice be one). I have also come to the conclusion that older running backs are not a good road to take, see Ahman Green.
 
Great post Mike.

Really do Agree on building from the inside out. San Fran really let down this year i had them pegged to win the West. But the boring but well rounded Seachickens won it out once again. Kearney has been a really nice addition out there.

I'll add the the notion about nervousness to adding Turner. Much rather draft one and I think Allen Patrick in the third would fit into what we're wanting to do nicely. I want us going Oline in the first.

I'd rather pass on Samuel and instead go after Trufant from Seattle. Ex Patriots after they've left NE make me nervous. They just don't seem to be as successful or nearly as good as players as up there. Briggs I'm sold on and I think would solidify this LB corps past DeMeco. Don't have any problems with Demps and from the looks of it his play exemplifies what the staff wants in the S position. We could've gone after a guy like Gattis and I'm thinking we're still relately unknown with what Brandon Harrison can do.

I never thought I'd say this but Chris Taylor probably would've helped the running game this year tremendously, of course that's assuming he has learned to hold onto the rock. I think at this point with Green you hope he's healthy next year and it prolly hurts more to cut right now then jsut keep him and see what he produces. The way the contract is structured makes it a lesser hit after the second year. If we're keeping Dayne, start him from day one. He's not the type of back you can spot him in. He's always been a rythym and wear down runner. It's no coicidence that this time last year and this year he's looking and running much better.

As for Sage. I've said my feeling many times on him. He's a good BACKUP. If he thinks he's got a shot at starting There's about three teams he can look at in Chicago, Tampa(loves QBs), and things might not be so well for Alex Smith in SF. That's what you get with Urban Meyer system Qbs. Hear that Tebow fans? Sage can probably look to those teams but i honestly think he's found a good fit here as a BACKUP. But get an extra third if you can trade him and rememeber McNabb rumours will probably pop up again this offseason.

Next year playoffs.
 
The Niners have COACHING problems, pure and simple. Same as the Texans. With five SB rings I don't think I would knock them to much.:)
 
I'm not going to pick you apart, but i will go point by point.

Texanmike said:
Ok Mr. Smith. Kubiak you too. Here is a step by step guide to avoid becoming next year's 49ers.

1. First be objective about your roster.
There are a few players on this team that are playing out of their mind. They are savy vets that belong as backups and will step up big when asked to start a few but I have serious doubts about their ability to start for a playoff team. Sage, Dayne, Hutchins, Demps all fall into that category. Salaam belongs there too. He is just too old at this point to be starting 16 games. Don't go into next season planning to have them starting.
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Sage, Dayne, and Hutchins are all backups and will go back to their backup roles after the season is over when we get our starters back. Demps is different. He's really made a lot of plays in the short time that he's had as a starter. He's a hitter, and he scares other teams. I think he's just doing what he does (only with 1 arm right now), which is big physical safety play. I agree with you on Salaam, and the poster above me saying he wouldn't be surprised if he retired. If you listen to his radio show on 610 at 5pm on Tuesdays, you can tell that his hands hurt along with the rest of his body and he's tired.

Texanmike said:
2. Don't fool yourself into thinking you only have two or three holes.
We are not a superstar away from being in the playoffs. We have several holes on this team. LT/LG/C on the OL alone. Flanagan won't be back and Mckinney won't cut it at C. I know, I heard Spencer talking a few days ago. He will be back next year. But at what strength. We will have cap room but we need to be judicious with this cap money. This team shouldn't have to overspend like we have in the past. Especially if we finish 8-8 or better. After the line RB has to be the next priority. Turner is my first option but there are others out there. Then move back to defense. Don't count on Drob being back at full strength. Oh and we need a safety. Did I mention Oline? And finally get some OLBs with speed.
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I think Smith and Kubiak both recognize that we have a lot of holes to fill. Remember when everybody was happy when we were 2-0 and I think both of them said that we aren't where they want us to be, and that there's still a lot of work to do on this team. I remember how upset some fans got, but now I see what they meant. I think if McKinney comes back from his ACL tear as normal, I think he'll be good for 1 or 2 more seasons. More than enough time to find a replacement. I really hope that they don't throw a lot of money at yet another RB in FA this year. I don't know if Turner is a product of SD, but it wouldn't shock me if he falters quite a bit on a new team (unless that new team is like the Vikings, but I doubt that will happen). I don't think we really need a Safety. I think Brown and Demps will be our safety tandem next year. Unless they replace Brown. I don't see them taking Demps out of his spot, especially if his elbow heals up and he's 100%. I think they might have a chance to get Briggs in FA for OLB, but Greenwood has been playing really good the last 2 games, so you never know.

Texanmike said:
3. Recognize where the franchise is.
This is an up and coming team. It has an average amount of talent and some guys who know the system now. Bringing in old Broncos when you were installing your system was great. Stop. We now have arguably more talent on the roster than Denver does.
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I think that's just something that we are going to see for a little while. Those players are players that the staff is familiar with, and knows their strengths and weaknesses. I don't mind really, as long as we're not bringing in Titans or Cowboys players.

Texanmike said:
4. Somtimes a splash isn't needed.
We signed Green last offseason. It was a "Splash". The only problem is it was a belly flop. 30 year old RBs aren't going to cut it. It is going to eat between 3 and 5 million of our cap space when he's released. The fans are excited. The town is buzzing. You don't really need a splash this time around. Just upgrade and win. The city will get behind you.
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Decent placeholder like Texans_Chick said. Nate Clements was a "splash". Next year Asante Samuels will be a "splash". Michael Turner will also be another "splash" along with Alan Faneca. I think they are going to re-sign Davis and Demps, and that will count a little bit towards the cap space.

Texanmike said:
5. Don't buy into your own success.
Yes we will have won 7 games again. We're still not that good. Look at our division record. Don't think that some minor tweaking of the roster will do. Protect your investment in the 48 million dollar arm. Get him a running game threat and some OL help.
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Yes, I think if we can improve the level of QB play, but improving the line mostly, and then the RB, we'll be in business. If we can cut our turnovers in half, then we will really be a force.

Texanmike said:
We've lost a few close games I know. But this team is still young. We're going to look great one week and terrible the next. From the GM down to the waterboy this organization is starting to learn what it takes to win. I'm not down on the team at all. I think that a playoff run is possible next year if we make signifigant improvement but if we were to start the season over today I still wouldn't pick this team to go to the playoffs.

Mike
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Overall I agree with a lot of your points, and find fault with a few. I think we are still a few major improvements away from contending with the elite, but I do have faith that the people in charge of that (Smith and Kubiak) have their heads screwed on pretty good, and know what we need.
 
SheTexan said:
The Niners have COACHING problems, pure and simple. Same as the Texans. With five SB rings I don't think I would knock them to much.:)
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How many offensive coordinators have they gone through? They may lose Mike Singletary this year as well. Hard for a young QB and an offensive unit to progress with that many changes.

This is something the Texans are dealing with, yes I know Kubiak is the main offensive guy but having to replace the offensive coordinator for the thir year in a row sucks to high heaven.

Mike, I agree with what you said for the most part. Anyone who thinks we are one or two players away is nutz, but I temper that with no one thought I WR were worth a crap and now we are all happy with our WR as long as we dont not lose anyone of importance, like Andre Davis. Not sure how Demps will play fulltime next year but at the very least he is better than what has been on the field and is a key person who needs be signed as well.

I am not sure any of you say Michael Turner will be a bust because he has all the tools and has shown that he can play. Is he the next LT? probably not but I say he is as good as Gore showed in 2006 or as good as anyone else of that elk. He may not be top tier talent be he can be in that next class with the supporting cast and giving him the ball 20 to 30 times a game.
 
Can we afford Will Demps if he demands a contract similar to the one he got previously? 5-yr, $12MM
With the Pro-Bowl thinggy, his agent might go banana and ask for more. who knows.
 
76Texan said:
Can we afford Will Demps if he demands a contract similar to the one he got previously? 5-yr, $12MM
With the Pro-Bowl thinggy, his agent might go banana and ask for more. who knows.
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5 years for $12 million @ $2.4 a year for a pro bowl alternate? I say "hell, yeah". If he can sew up the FS and he will have two arms next season, I think that would be a "sold" sign on that deal.
 
76Texan said:
Can we afford Will Demps if he demands a contract similar to the one he got previously? 5-yr, $12MM
With the Pro-Bowl thinggy, his agent might go banana and ask for more. who knows.
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I'm not sure we will give him the 5 year deal because he's 28 and he his arm isn't 100%. We do have to resign him though.
 
I for one wouldn't mind if the Texans turned into the 49ers of the late 80's/early 90's. 5 Lombardi trophies would be kinda nice.:trophy: Especially if at least one of them came at the expense of a certain team from north Texas.:splits:
 
adam said:
That's not saying a lot. Our line is pitiful. Being relatively decent on OUR o-line should not be something to note when deciding whether or not to hang onto a player. I wouldn't mind keeping Pitts for back-up purposes, but the entire left side of our line needs help. I am actually satisfied with Winston and I like what I see out of Brisiel. We'll just have to see how things pan out in the off season.
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I am not sure the O-line is as bad as people are thinking. They are creating holes for our non-impact backs and the Texans have only allowed 21 sacks all season. That puts them in 7th place in the league.

The 6 teams ahead of us? Saints, Bengals, Browns, Packers, Patriots and Colts.

I am not saying our line is perfect, but even with all the injuries, the team has improved in that area. Who would have ever thought with mostly the same guys on the o-line that we would be in the top ten of least sacks allowed?
 
dskillz said:
I am not sure the O-line is as bad as people are thinking. They are creating holes for our non-impact backs and the Texans have only allowed 21 sacks all season. That puts them in 7th place in the league.

The 6 teams ahead of us? Saints, Bengals, Browns, Packers, Patriots and Colts.

I am not saying our line is perfect, but even with all the injuries, the team has improved in that area. Who would have ever thought with mostly the same guys on the o-line that we would be in the top ten of least sacks allowed?
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At the beginning of the season, my opinions were:
Salaam when healthy is better than Black who started for the Chiefs the year before.
Pitts, Weary, and Winston are young players and should improve, especially since they seem to be hard-working type.
Both Flanagan or McKinney are old pros. Same as with Salaam, we cannot expect the linemen to win every battle. They don't need to look pretty either. All they need to be is efficient.

And with more time in the system, they start playing better together.
Brisiel's time on the PS squad last year also helps.

They are all C+, B- players, IMHO.
 
76Texan said:
At the beginning of the season, my opinions were:
Salaam when healthy is better than Black who started for the Chiefs the year before.
Pitts, Weary, and Winston are young players and should improve, especially since they seem to be hard-working type.
Both Flanagan or McKinney are old pros. Same as with Salaam, we cannot expect the linemen to win every battle. They don't need to look pretty either. All they need to be is efficient.

And with more time in the system, they start playing better together.
Brisiel's time on the PS squad last year also helps.

They are all C+, B- players, IMHO.
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"c+" Oline with a "c" RB might get you to 8-8; but we need a better report card to go deep in play offs imo.
 
badboy said:
"c+" Oline with a "c" RB might get you to 8-8; but we need a better report card to go deep in play offs imo.
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Agree, we need to upgrade wherever we can. I'm just not sure which position should be first though. Or whether it's the D.

We'll see what the F.O. target in the off-season.
 
Here's how I see it going by position:

QB--regardless of where you are on Schaub v. Sage, we've got our guys unless we deal one away.

TB--definite need. But TBs who get through a 16 game season are incredibly rare these days. As of right now, we'll only have one of the top 80 picks in the draft; can we afford to use it on a guy that may not last a season?

FB--Leach is fine, but he needs to play more consistently.

WR--a need no more if we keep Davis. I really like a foursome of AJ/Davis/Walter/Jacoby if JJ makes strides next year.

TE--if Daniels is done fumbling, this is not a need.

OT--LT is a huge, huge need; top priority IMHO. Winston is a nice RT.

G--can get better, but this is a place where you can plug in guys off the street.

C--a need, but not as urgent as LT.

DT--I like our rotation here, assuming Okoye continues to develop and Johnson plays like he cares.

DE--could use a bookend for Mario, but this is not a crying need in my mind. I like Kalu as a pass-rush specialist.

MLB--We're good here.

OLB--Not optimal, but we have bigger needs elsewhere.

CB--Big time need unless Robinson comes back quickly.

S--I really like Demps, but this is always a need for us.

PK--can't argue with a Pro Bowl who's perfect beyond 50

P--Turk's been a tad disappointing, but this is not worth a draft pick or (certainly) a big FA contract.

Assuming no trade and the absence of an obvious BPA that we can't pass up, I'd draft this way:
Round 1: LT (or CB if the elite LTs are gone)
3: CB (or LT if we went CB with #1)
4: S (can get good ones later on)
5: C
6&7 are crapshoots. Take a flyer on a late round RB.
 
dskillz said:
I am not sure the O-line is as bad as people are thinking. They are creating holes for our non-impact backs and the Texans have only allowed 21 sacks all season. That puts them in 7th place in the league.

The 6 teams ahead of us? Saints, Bengals, Browns, Packers, Patriots and Colts.

I am not saying our line is perfect, but even with all the injuries, the team has improved in that area. Who would have ever thought with mostly the same guys on the o-line that we would be in the top ten of least sacks allowed?
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Sacks allowed is also sort of a sketchy measurement. Not having a QB who assumes the fetal position whenever a defensive lineman gets within 10 ft. of him helps a good deal in that department. Either way, the amount of pressure getting through is ridiculous. Granted, the line has improved a good deal in recent games. I'll give them that. None-the-less, Salaam isn't hacking it and neither is Pitts or Flanagan. From the center to the left, we need help. I also don't think that Spencer is going to be back at 100% either.
 
I just want the linemen to hold their ground for 1-1/2 seconds.
In the WCO, the QB should be able to get rid of the ball during that time, or buys himself an extra 1/2 - 1 sec.

In this regard, I see Salaam as worse, and then Winston (yes, Winston).
(Just my observations, of course.)
 
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