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Trade up or down or stay scenario

badboy

badboy

Hall of Fame
http://www.nfl.com/standings?category=league
Based on standings as of Dec 12th.

Scenario 1: New England (49rs) has 3rd pick in first and Houston the 15th. Our team can move up or down a spot or two but premise should be the same. IMO, there is only one "franchise type" player that will go above us and fits our team holes. That player is McFadden. New England does not need a back but is projected by most to select him. Would a RB such as Stewart interest them enough at 15 to trade down with us? Our cupboards are bare, but would our 15th, a fourth round this year and a third next season plus LB Zach Diles be enough to get the NE pick? (Diles is good but he will not beat or Demeco). Imagine our current team with IR players that are expected back and a D. McFadden. Our defense seems to keep getting better and an RB that can keep the D off the field can only make that side of the ball better. Really, do any of our current backs excite you? NE could get an RB to fit with what they now have and pay much less and get two extra selections that are significant the way NE drafts. Diles is going to be a very good player. We still would have a third to select an OLT (Alex Boone?) and the loss of a fourth in 09 draft does not bother me.

Scenario #2: Hell no to #1! Even with a 15th pick we can hold our breath (we are getting pretty good at that) and hope a Clady or Stewart will be there. Or maybe we can go CB. Clady seems to be moving up (and out of range)and Stewart will either be the 2nd best back (especially for the difference in $) or at least be the best back on our team anyway.

Scenario #3: First round 15th pick can still get us a second round pick and the 18th pick from Arizona. Clady a true LT will be gone and probably Sam Baker, at least two of the CBs, probably Phillips (if you like him) and good chance Stewart also.

Now I am depressed.
 
We aren't trading up to the 3rd pick. We can't afford to give up any picks and we can't afford to pay a running back $60 million
 
Well I'm on the record that Dallas is going to do it. New England needs DBs and Line backers and that is where those things live, at the bottom of the first. If they squeeze a few picks out of J.J. along the way, so much the better. So how many draft picks stuck with New England last year ? I think it was exactly two. They just dumped the DT a couple of weeks ago.

I think McFaddin is worth the money. I don't think we have the ammo to go up and get him. If they are dead set on RB, I think beerlovers guy Stewart would do nicley. I also think in day two you can get a guy a little less of an athlete but a similar player in Cory Boyd of South Carolina.

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/player/profile?playerId=146825

See that missing 2005...that's what'll push him down the boards. Dunno what it was but I hope it was fun...cost him about 2 million to 400K.

also notice his recieving Stats....that's what'll get him drafted. Going to have to put him on Meds is all.
 
threetoedpete said:
Well I'm on the record that Dallas is going to do it. New England needs DBs and Line backers and that is where those things live, at the bottom of the first. If they squeeze a few picks out of J.J. along the way, so much the better. So how many draft picks stuck with New England last year ? I think it was exactly two. They just dumped the DT a couple of weeds ago.

I think McFaddin is worth the money. I don't think we have the ammo to go up and get him. If they are dead set on RB, I think beerlovers guy Stewart would do nicley. I also think in day two you can get a guy a little less of an athlete but a simalar player in Cory Boyd of South Carolina.
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I'm interested in knowing why everybody is so sure that Dallas is making this move. What's your reasoning?
 
threetoedpete said:
Well I'm on the record that Dallas is going to do it. New England needs DBs and Line backers and that is where those things live, at the bottom of the first. If they squeeze a few picks out of J.J. along the way, so much the better. So how many draft picks stuck with New England last year ? I think it was exactly two. They just dumped the DT a couple of weeks ago.

I think McFaddin is worth the money. I don't think we have the ammo to go up and get him. If they are dead set on RB, I think beerlovers guy Stewart would do nicley. I also think in day two you can get a guy a little less of an athlete but a similar player in Cory Boyd of South Carolina.

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/player/profile?playerId=146825

See that missing 2005...that's what'll push him down the boards. Dunno what it was but I hope it was fun...cost him about 2 million to 400K.

also notice his recieving Stats....that's what'll get him drafted. Going to have to put him on Meds is all.
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I dunno, can't seem to improve past that 5.0 rushing avg. (sarcasm) Thanks for that info was not aware of this guy. Would a 4th or 5th round get him?

Do you think Arizona would be interested in a trade up with us and would they give a 2nd to move up a projected 3-5 spots? I would trade with them for an extra third round, would you?
 
Maddict5 said:
lol what did zac diles do?
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He has been compared very favorably to Ryans and projection or potential is what most of NFL or most sports for that matter is about. He is cheap and has the size. With the coaching of NE he could develop into a starter and NE is deep enough that he does not have to do it all at once. He is part of a deal due to who is in front of him.
 
badboy said:
I dunno, can't seem to improve past that 5.0 rushing avg. (sarcasm) Thanks for that info was not aware of this guy. Would a 4th or 5th round get him?

Do you think Arizona would be interested in a trade up with us and would they give a 2nd to move up a projected 3-5 spots? I would trade with them for an extra third round, would you?
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I think so...I also am not an SEC or a gamecocks insider. So...I dunno what it was he did. Bad enough to get the boot for a season. Now our owner...I would bet money..he knows.

Arizona could get a DE or replace the linebcker...I'm assuming they'll tag the safty...there's some prety good LBs on the board...couple of USC guys...not out of sight for sure. The question is why would they want to move up ? We're heading for the 14-18 range our selves unless Salaam goes down. They'd have to be in love with someone aweful bad to part with a day one pick.

Only two prime DTs on the board...now that's a thingy if your having trouble with the rush teams might move up for. Only two of them then everybody else. Someone might get nervous on the USC DT.
 
bah007 said:
I'm interested in knowing why everybody is so sure that Dallas is making this move. What's your reasoning?
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Tony Dorsett, Hershal Walker, And Emmit Smith. The line is in place. The kid is the hotest thing out of arkansas since fourteen year old girls could leagaly wed. J.J. Gets to splash with the home state guy. And finally, he's the best player on the board. He's worth the ammo they give up. Only thing missing out of the triangle is the stud , with all due respect to Marion Barber, RB. They get that mule behind that line and with those recievers and that QB, they will dominate...I post dominate The NFC for eight years. No one will touch them. I'm also thinking they got Julius Jones to throw into the package. They only need one third down back with McFaddin. And what is new England going to do with another power back when they need defensive guys and they already have Maroney ? They don't rush the ball thirty per cent of the time. Why would they ? they got the #1 or #2 QB in the league...they don't need to set up nothing. Why would they pay two premere backs when they barly use the one they got ? I know the mockers got it locked where he should go...but I mean com'on it makes no fricken sense what so ever. It would be the first stupid thing I've seen the wolf in New England ever do. Belichick doesn't do stupid things.
 
the problem is that Dallas doesn't have the ammunition at all to make that move. wishful thinking by Cowboys fans before the season when it looked like Cleveland would pick top 3.
 
badboy said:
He has been compared very favorably to Ryans and projection or potential is what most of NFL or most sports for that matter is about. He is cheap and has the size. With the coaching of NE he could develop into a starter and NE is deep enough that he does not have to do it all at once. He is part of a deal due to who is in front of him.
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If he is compared favorable to Ryans, why dont we use him as an OLB? The idea being, 2 Mecos> 1 Meco
 
kastofsna said:
the problem is that Dallas doesn't have the ammunition at all to make that move. wishful thinking by Cowboys fans before the season when it looked like Cleveland would pick top 3.
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So what does NE do if they do not trade with Dallas? Trade down for whatever and go with a defensive player? Why should one SB contender help another?
 
badboy said:
So what does NE do if they do not trade with Dallas? Trade down for whatever and go with a defensive player? Why should one SB contender help another?
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Players and that is the point. He gets reload that defense. I'm figuring in back to back years. Without over paying for guys. That's what they do.

We'll See Kast...I'm believeing it's a buyers market this year. Phins don't take him...New England will make damn sure the jets don't get him. Believe anything believe that one. McFaddin's in the nfc, Patties get to dominate that division as long as the prety boy wants to play. and there won't be anything the division can do about it for a while. I think the value of screwing with the Jets and Phins is priceless to them.


1 Miami 0-13 .548
2 New England (from San Francisco) 3-10 .481
3 St. Louis 3-10 .514
4 Atlanta 3-10 .519
5 New York Jets 3-10 .524
 
awtysst said:
If he is compared favorable to Ryans, why dont we use him as an OLB? The idea being, 2 Mecos> 1 Meco
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Man, I've posted that exact thing. Maybe they like Barber more than I do. If they were going to let Barber go in off season and move ZIles over, I'd be for that but seems like he would have gotten some playing time there by now. Size alone DIles is almost the same as Demeco and some say hits as hard and is very smart.
 
badboy said:
Man, I've posted that exact thing. Maybe they like Barber more than I do. If they were going to let Barber go in off season and move ZIles over, I'd be for that but seems like he would have gotten some playing time there by now. Size alone DIles is almost the same as Demeco and some say hits as hard and is very smart.
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Because this HC doesnot throw veterans under the bus. Unless they're dead or indisposed by inury...they go over the rookie. I would of had Flanagan out of town three weeks ago.
 
Don't think so. He's said repeatedly he's not going to just hand playing time to a guy because he's next in line. About Flanny specifically, though, McKinney did win the job, and they were looking at Chris White.

I'd go with Scenario no. 3 as well if no decent LT is there - cough, Jammal Brown, cough.
 
badboy said:
http://www.nfl.com/standings?category=league
Based on standings as of Dec 12th.

Scenario 1: New England (49rs) has 3rd pick in first and Houston the 15th. Our team can move up or down a spot or two but premise should be the same. IMO, there is only one "franchise type" player that will go above us and fits our team holes. That player is McFadden. New England does not need a back but is projected by most to select him. Would a RB such as Stewart interest them enough at 15 to trade down with us? Our cupboards are bare, but would our 15th, a fourth round this year and a third next season plus LB Zach Diles be enough to get the NE pick? (Diles is good but he will not beat or Demeco). Imagine our current team with IR players that are expected back and a D. McFadden. Our defense seems to keep getting better and an RB that can keep the D off the field can only make that side of the ball better. Really, do any of our current backs excite you? NE could get an RB to fit with what they now have and pay much less and get two extra selections that are significant the way NE drafts. Diles is going to be a very good player. We still would have a third to select an OLT (Alex Boone?) and the loss of a fourth in 09 draft does not bother me.

Scenario #2: Hell no to #1! Even with a 15th pick we can hold our breath (we are getting pretty good at that) and hope a Clady or Stewart will be there. Or maybe we can go CB. Clady seems to be moving up (and out of range)and Stewart will either be the 2nd best back (especially for the difference in $) or at least be the best back on our team anyway.

Scenario #3: First round 15th pick can still get us a second round pick and the 18th pick from Arizona. Clady a true LT will be gone and probably Sam Baker, at least two of the CBs, probably Phillips (if you like him) and good chance Stewart also.

Now I am depressed.
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I hate to get "nit picky", but if we traded back to Arizona for #18 and they got our #15, we wouldn't get their 2nd rounder at #50 because the points don't add up. In reality, we would probably only get their 3rd rounder. The only way to get their 2nd rounder would be if we threw in another pick or added a player so the draft value would be somewhat equal.

Now to the scenario's.

The 1st scenario ain't gonna happen. It's just too much to give up and too much money to pay. If McFadden fell to #10 or #13, by some miracle, then I think Kubes & Smith would probably go for it. But, it ain't gonna happen. And, don't be surprised if no one wants to trade up for him. I also won't be surprised to see N.E. keep McFadden (if he does fall to them) and then try to shop Maroney around for extra picks.

The 2nd scenario is probably what will likely play out and we will take BPA. Hopefully Stewart or Clady will still be there.

Scenario 3 is what I would like to see happen just so we can get an extra pick. I think if the offer is there and the players Smith & Kubes have targeted at #15 are gone, then the trade down will likely happen. I just don't know if they would do it if any of their targeted players are still there at #15. Like this past draft for example. I'm pretty sure they had offers to trade down from #10 and I remember hearing things from Smith or Kubes that they were in a good spot to trade down, but when Okoye dropped to #10, they just couldn't pass him up. Bottom line, if their targets at #15 are gone and there is an offer to trade down, they do it. JMHO!
 
Insideop said:
The 1st scenario ain't gonna happen. It's just too much to give up and too much money to pay. If McFadden fell to #10 or #13, by some miracle, then I think Kubes & Smith would probably go for it. But, it ain't gonna happen. And, don't be surprised if no one wants to trade up for him. I also won't be surprised to see N.E. keep McFadden (if he does fall to them) and then try to shop Maroney around for extra picks.
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If we can't afford McFadden then I sure know New England won't be able to. Think about it,if they're going to re-sign Moss then they won't have enough cap for McFadden.
 
Rick Smith has his work cut out for him & will be open to trading down I'm sure if a team comes knocking in panic mode, otherwise he surely won't trade up & most likely stays put taking the BPA who fills one of our biggest needs (remember we have many) so its not limited to a single position (LT, CB, FS, RB). :shades:
 
I think we would go with BPA at the positions that we need (CB,FS,LT,RB). I really don't see us drafting a WR or DE even if they are the BPA.
 
Insideop said:
I hate to get "nit picky", but if we traded back to Arizona for #18 and they got our #15, we wouldn't get their 2nd rounder at #50 because the points don't add up. In reality, we would probably only get their 3rd rounder. The only way to get their 2nd rounder would be if we threw in another pick or added a player so the draft value would be somewhat equal.

Now to the scenario's.

The 1st scenario ain't gonna happen. It's just too much to give up and too much money to pay. If McFadden fell to #10 or #13, by some miracle, then I think Kubes & Smith would probably go for it. But, it ain't gonna happen. And, don't be surprised if no one wants to trade up for him. I also won't be surprised to see N.E. keep McFadden (if he does fall to them) and then try to shop Maroney around for extra picks.

The 2nd scenario is probably what will likely play out and we will take BPA. Hopefully Stewart or Clady will still be there.

Scenario 3 is what I would like to see happen just so we can get an extra pick. I think if the offer is there and the players Smith & Kubes have targeted at #15 are gone, then the trade down will likely happen. I just don't know if they would do it if any of their targeted players are still there at #15. Like this past draft for example. I'm pretty sure they had offers to trade down from #10 and I remember hearing things from Smith or Kubes that they were in a good spot to trade down, but when Okoye dropped to #10, they just couldn't pass him up. Bottom line, if their targets at #15 are gone and there is an offer to trade down, they do it. JMHO!
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My understanding is the points do not have to match up to make a trade. You may be thinking of NBA trades. The point system is to just give an idea to the worth. If Arizona wants a defensive LB or DE like Dan Connor or Vernon Gholston & that player is available @ Texans pick, Arizona can give a 2nd round if they want the player bad enough. Personally I would trade 15th for 18th and a 3rd round.

I think Stewart may be there when we pick but Clady appears to be a goner. Although, most were surprised when Okoye dropped. So to say it can't happen to McFadden is speaking to soon. Remember the QB that dropped to I think Green Bay and the pictures of him being the only one in the green room. I think DM will be a top 5 but I will hope.
 
tulexan said:
I think we would go with BPA at the positions that we need (CB,FS,LT,RB). I really don't see us drafting a WR or DE even if they are the BPA.
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heres about as much insight as we're going to get-

"It wasn't a matter of something you liked more," Kubiak said of the comparison between Williams and Bush. "It was a matter of direction of the organization. ... We had many issues here in Houston, not just one."

just specualtion/interpretation on my part but it would seem that the direction of the organization is

if given a choice between top defensive prospect vs. offensive prospect they feel more comfortable going defense, as the direction a expansion franchise should build, remembering this is a buisness investment.

timming is everything, one wonders if Joe Thomas was available vs D'Brickashaw Ferguson in the 06 draft would the outcome have been the same?

everydown players needed more than situational specialists, this means more return for linemen, specificly Center/QB in this case Mario is a everydown DE.

war is won in the trenches, both offensive & defensive lines so you need to address your building blocks first then build around them.
 
beerlover said:
heres about as much insight as we're going to get-

"It wasn't a matter of something you liked more," Kubiak said of the comparison between Williams and Bush. "It was a matter of direction of the organization. ... We had many issues here in Houston, not just one."

just specualtion/interpretation on my part but it would seem that the direction of the organization is

if given a choice between top defensive prospect vs. offensive prospect they feel more comfortable going defense, as the direction a expansion franchise should build, remembering this is a buisness investment.

timming is everything, one wonders if Joe Thomas was available vs D'Brickashaw Ferguson in the 06 draft would the outcome have been the same?

everydown players needed more than situational specialists, this means more return for linemen, specificly Center/QB in this case Mario is a everydown DE.

war is won in the trenches, both offensive & defensive lines so you need to address your building blocks first then build around them.
Click to expand...

I agree that we are going to look for the most bang for our buck and a major knock against Bush leading up to the draft was that his price/plays on the field ratio was much higher than Mario's. That is why I think we will draft the BPA at LT, FS, CB, and a distant option of RB. All of those positions see significant playing time and FS or CB would upgrade a porous secondary that will dramatically help our DL. I think we have too much money invested in the DL to add another first round pick. We could add an OLB if the top tackles are gone, Phillips is gone, and we aren't sold on the CB's available.

I think the current position preference for the first pick is...

1. FS
2. LT
3. CB
4. RB/OLB
 
beerlover said:
heres about as much insight as we're going to get-

"It wasn't a matter of something you liked more," Kubiak said of the comparison between Williams and Bush. "It was a matter of direction of the organization. ... We had many issues here in Houston, not just one."

just specualtion/interpretation on my part but it would seem that the direction of the organization is

if given a choice between top defensive prospect vs. offensive prospect they feel more comfortable going defense, as the direction a expansion franchise should build, remembering this is a buisness investment.

timming is everything, one wonders if Joe Thomas was available vs D'Brickashaw Ferguson in the 06 draft would the outcome have been the same?

everydown players needed more than situational specialists, this means more return for linemen, specificly Center/QB in this case Mario is a everydown DE.

war is won in the trenches, both offensive & defensive lines so you need to address your building blocks first then build around them.
Click to expand...

The choice between Mario and Reggie was not limited to need or skills.
 
tulexan said:
But you're willing to trade up and sign an unproven RB who will cost at least 2x what Turner will?
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Well I'm not Jerry Jones. But yes if the Texans had a two and a better line than we have now...I'd certinly make an offer for the two. I don't think McFaddin fits what this HC wants to do do you ? I mean we're running with Vonte Leech alot. But I also believe that he'd like to be bit more flexble in formations. I believe he has been protecting the offensive line for two years. He has what he has and he couldn't fix it in one off season.


I think McFaddin is going to be devestating at the next level. And what the hell is unproven bout him as compred to what ? Adrian Petteron ? Please...Peterson alredy has knee. McFaddin has been playing hurt for two years. Dosen't seem to have slowed him too much. Turner ? There is no less risk with Turner than there is with McFaddin. And the upside with McFaddin is limitless. Turner what we saw the other week, needs a line. He can be shut down. I see turner as an over paid Ronnie. But what ever...be cheap if he hits the waiver wire. You're telling me you're going to part with our lone day one pick for the guy...you must be joking ? Just as soon they move down and take Stewart at the bottom of the first or Cory Boyd in the forth.
 
beerlover said:
just specualtion/interpretation on my part but it would seem that the direction of the organization is

if given a choice between top defensive prospect vs. offensive prospect they feel more comfortable going defense, as the direction a expansion franchise should build, remembering this is a buisness investment.
Click to expand...

Another theory.

A good coach in one area builds on his arrogance. Jimmy Johnson--great defensive coach--draft offense and figure you can scheme the D. Kubiak--great offensive coach--draft D and figure you can scheme the O. Scheme the O seems to be happening, and the D has potential.
 
threetoedpete said:
Well I'm not Jerry Jones. But yes if the Texans had a two and a better line than we have now...I'd certinly make an offer for the two. I don't think McFaddin fits what this HC wants to do do you ? I mean we're running with Vonte Leech alot. But I also believe that he'd like to be bit more flexble in formations. I believe he has been protecting the offensive line for two years. He has what he has and he couldn't fix it in one off season.


I think McFaddin is going to be devestating at the next level. And what the hell is unproven bout him as compred to what ? Adrian Petteron ? Please...Peterson alredy has knee. McFaddin has been playing hurt for two years. Dosen't seem to have slowed him too much. Turner ? There is no less risk with Turner than there is with McFaddin. And the upside with McFaddin is limitless. Turner what we saw the other week, needs a line. He can be shut down. I see turner as an over paid Ronnie. But what ever...be cheap if he hits the waiver wire. You're telling me you're going to part with our lone day one pick for the guy...you must be joking ? Just as soon they move down and take Stewart at the bottom of the first or Cory Boyd in the forth.
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I don't doubt that McFadden is going to be an unbelievable player and if he were to fall to us I obviously would want to take him. What I am saying is that we would have to give up multiple picks and then pay him $60M+ on top of that for someone who is unproven in the NFL. Turner is a UFA and we won't have to give up any picks/players to get him. Sure, his upside isn't as high as McFadden's, but he has proven to be a very dangerous back with big play ability. He will also be substantially cheaper than McFadden and is still young. By going the Turner route we can still fill our holes at OT and DB in the first day. Trading up for McFadden will not allow us to do that.
 
infantrycak said:
Another theory.

A good coach in one area builds on his arrogance. Jimmy Johnson--great defensive coach--draft offense and figure you can scheme the D. Kubiak--great offensive coach--draft D and figure you can scheme the O. Scheme the O seems to be happening, and the D has potential.
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very good, excatly what I was trying to hint towards. you hit the nail on the head once again :)
 
tulexan said:
I don't doubt that McFadden is going to be an unbelievable player and if he were to fall to us I obviously would want to take him. What I am saying is that we would have to give up multiple picks and then pay him $60M+ on top of that for someone who is unproven in the NFL. Turner is a UFA and we won't have to give up any picks/players to get him. Sure, his upside isn't as high as McFadden's, but he has proven to be a very dangerous back with big play ability. He will also be substantially cheaper than McFadden and is still young. By going the Turner route we can still fill our holes at OT and DB in the first day. Trading up for McFadden will not allow us to do that.
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Got it.
 
beerlover said:
.

war is won in the trenches, both offensive & defensive lines so you need to address your building blocks first then build around them.
Click to expand...

look no further than denver last night to see what happens when you're built from the outside in v us being inside out
 
badboy said:
My understanding is the points do not have to match up to make a trade. ... The point system is to just give an idea to the worth.
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That's true. But, the trades you have listed are way outside of the range of worth. The other trade you mention:
Personally I would trade 15th for 18th and a 3rd round.
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is at least in the ballpark of the right amount. Even though the team with the 18th would be "overpaying" to move up, it wouldn't be unreasonable if they really had someone targeted that they felt number 16/17 would grab. The first trade, though, isn't really reasonable, unless you are valuing Diles as equivalent to a mid to low 1st round draft pick:
Pick 3 (2200 points) vs.

1st round Pick 15 (1050 points)
4th round Pick 111 (72 points)
next year's 3rd round Pick (195 points this year, but should be discounted by 1/2 to 1 round for the extra year)
Zach Diles
That's a big gap for Diles to overcome. My guess is that this trade could allow us to move up somewhere in the 8-12 range, which probably is not enough to get McFadden.

That said, I think the draft "value" charts are way off - overvaluing the top picks pretty significantly. Maybe NE would be willing to trash the chart to make a trade they wanted, but I seriously doubt they'd be willing to make something this far off. If they were, though, I'd take it in a heartbeat.
 
kastofsna said:
the problem is that Dallas doesn't have the ammunition at all to make that move. wishful thinking by Cowboys fans before the season when it looked like Cleveland would pick top 3.
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Actually, Dallas does have the ammunition to make that move. They're deep at linebacker, which is one area that New England is going to have to address real soon. Depending upon where San Francisco & Cleveland end up this year, & the reported rumor that JJ has a real woody for McFadden, I could see Dallas giving both #1's this year, their #1 next year, & one of their young linebackers (Bobby Carpenter?) to New England for McFadden.

New England could then grab a CB (Dejuan Tribble, Mike Jenkins, Aquib Talib, Antoine Cason, Tracey Porter?) to replace the soon to be gone Asante Samuel & another linebacker.

It's a heavy price to pay, but JJ tends to operate under his own rules & if he's really hot for McFadden, I could see some variation of this deal going down.
 
I had to give you rep jsut for the name roc haha that was classic. Love how Mark Schlereth was all full of himself when he did that show
 
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