As I write this, I'm coming across as awful homerish to myself. But, I can't help it.
Wk1 -
Win over KC: Our pass D is suspect, but our run D looks to be pretty solid. We have a great MLB and our safeties and corners are good in run support, for the most part. They have Damon Huard to pass on us. I think LJ will probably still get his 100 yds. and a TD, and the KC D-line will give us hell, with Jared Allen and Co., but it won't be enough.
Wk2 -
Win @CAR: Their offense has looked bad. Steve Smith might be the best WR in football, but he still has Delhomme throwing to him (or worse). Their RBs have not performed up to par, and their defense is very up-and-down. I think we surprise some folks and pull one out on the road against a mediocre CAR team. We'll benefit from a turnover or two.
Wk3 -
Loss to Indy: Early in the season, they'll be clicking and all their guys are healthy. I just think they're a bit too much to handle, and we'll be riding the high of the first couple games. It won't be a blowout, as we'll run and keep Manning off the field, but he'll find a way to beat us.
Wk4 -
Win @ATL: I'm not buying into the "Woe is Atlanta" rhetoric that the media is selling, but their strength matches up with our defensive strength, and I think our offense can beat their defense. Harrington has beat us before, but not this time.
Wk5 -
Win vs. MIA: They just aren't a good team, and not substantially different from the team we beat last year. In some ways, they are worse. We are a better team than last year, and I can see the home crowd making a difference in this one.
Wk6 -
Loss @JAX: I just get the feeling they'll win one, so I'm giving them the home win over us. It'll be close, but they have a great running game. We might shut down Fred Taylor, but MJD will likely burn us on a screen or somesuch. Their D-line is still better than our O-line, and will win most of those battles on the day.
Wk7 -
Win vs. TEN: Home crowd will be fired up for this one. The Tacks have not substantially improved their team. I worry about our play vs. the TEs, because VY has a thing working with Scaife there, but I think we'll stop them in all phases of the game. VY will probably hit a big play here or there, but it won't be enough.
Wk8 -
Loss @SD: The Chargers very well might be the most complete team in the NFL, and we really shouldn't stand a chance at beating them. Still, stranger things have happened, but I won't predict it for this one. There's no shame in losing to the Chargers in SD.
Wk9 -
Win @OAK: Culpepper, if he really is healthy, probably improves their team, and their defense is still solid. Lamont Jordan is a good RB, but their line is still pretty questionable. If our D-line can stop the run and get a little pressure on the QB, I think we win this one. I could see it coming down to turnovers, or the return game, or a big play. I think we take this one, though.
Wk10 - BYE (and good timing, after a back-to-back West Coast roadie)
Wk11 -
Loss vs. NO: I really could go either way on this one. I think the crowd is definitely going to be fired up about this one and will help provide an advantage here. We're coming off a bye week, so the rest will have been good for guys. Still, Brees-Colston-Deuce is a nice trio on offense. Their defensive line is pretty good at putting pressure on the QB, even if their secondary is suspect. It wouldn't surprise me too much to win this one, but if I predict too many wins, I'll get light-headed.
Wk12 -
Win @CLE: The Browns should either be squarely embroiled in a QB controversy by this point, or starting Quinn. We are a better team, in my estimation, and should win, but they are at home. If Quinn is starting, we stand a pretty good chance of taking advantage of rookie mistakes. If Frye is starting, we stand a pretty good chance of taking advantage of mediocre QB play. To say tthis won't be the toughest D we face all year is an understatement.
Wk13 -
Win @TEN: The sweep is on. The Tacks have forgotten about the sweep from '04, so it's time to remind them. We're just a better team, in all phases.
Wk14 -
Win vs. TB: Their O-line is worse than ours. Jeff Garcia has shown he can be a good QB when playing for a good team, but he also was a bad QB when playing for a bad team. I think he'll be fairly worn down by this point, and the Reliant advantage will help as well. Their defense is a shell of what it used to be, and their running game is not good. We should win this one.
Wk15 -
Loss vs. DEN: I'm curious to see what kind of fight we put up in this one. I hate to think we'll lose a nationally-televised game, but the Broncos are a good team all around. I expect big things from Cutler, and Javon Walker is a real threat at WR. Travis Henry is the best back the Broncos have had since Portis left, and this one just feels like a looss coming our way. I think we'll put up a much better fight than we would if we were on the road for this one.
Wk16 -
Win @IND: This is where we take command of the division. We beat the Colts in their house and relegate them to the wild card. Prior to looking at the schedule, I predicted a split with the Colts, but in looking at the schedule, I just get the feeling they'll pull the first one out against us. Later in the season, with everything to play for, Kubiak gets the best out of our guys and we take control.
Wk17 -
Win vs. JAX: If we haven't clinched the division by now, we will. A split on the season with JAX is what I predicted prior to seeing the schedule, and the home game is ours. Is this one Battle Red Day? Regardless, we take this one and go 11-5.
Final division standings:
HOU 11-5
IND 10-6
JAX 8-8
TEN 5-11
Blast away
Edit To Add: Since I placed my futures bet in Vegas at 120-1, I may as well call it on here - Texans win the SB!!!
OK, I am slightly less serious about that (though I did place the bet), but I am 100% serious about 11-5.