NFL undervalues lower picks

NFL undervalues lower picks
The Bears should trade down in April. Every team should.

NFL teams rely heavily on a draft value chart, first dreamed up by then-Dallas coach Jimmy Johnson. The chart is skewed too heavily toward the top in the unpredictable NFL draft. The first pick (3,000 points) is worth twice as much as the No. 7 overall choice (1,500 points) five times as much as the last pick in the first round (590 points).

Yet only four of the last 17 No. 1 overall picks (Peyton Manning, Carson Palmer, Orlando Pace and Michael Vick) have been worth anything close to five low No. 1s. Most of this crowd — Jeff George, Russell Maryland, Steve Emtman, Drew Bledsoe, Dan Wilkinson, Ki-Jana Carter, Keyshawn Johnson, Tim Couch, Courtney Brown, David Carr, Eli Manning, Alex Smith and Mario Williams — weren’t even worth one low first-round pick.

The NFL’s value chart says Cade McNown should have been worth more to the Bears than the rest of their 1999 draft class combined, which included Marty Booker, Warrick Holdman, Rosevelt Colvin and Jerry Azumah combined.

The truth is, lower round picks Mike Brown, Charles Tillman, Lance Briggs and Devin Hester have been better than all of Chicago’s last 15 first-round picks except for Brian Urlacher and Tommie Harris.

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