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HPF:sizing up what Carr could be worth in a trade.

Wolf

Wolf

100% Texan
http://www.houstonprofootball.com/draft/

Checking the Comps
by Warren DeLuca
HoustonProFootball.com

Without question, the Texans have made a significant investment in David Carr. They used the first overall pick in the 2002 draft on him, signed him to a significant contract, made him the sole focus of their quarterback development efforts, and extended his contract a year ago. So if they are indeed considering trading him, they should be doing the same due diligence that any business does when deciding whether to divest itself of a major asset. Usually that includes obtaining an appraisal of the asset’s market value, and a significant component in determining the appraised value is the sales prices of comparable assets. As we ponder what deals may be out there for Carr, to estimate his trade value we should take a look at the “comps.”

Using a draft value chart, I have attempted to value and rank the return received for each quarterback traded since 2000. Each component of a trade was assessed based upon what it appeared to be worth when the deal was made. Picks traded in the summer or preseason for the following draft were slotted based upon the previous season’s draft order and picks traded during the season were estimated based roughly upon where the team stood in the standings at that point.

The values of future draft picks (for example, a 2007 pick traded during or before the 2006 draft) were adjusted down a round. The exact pick(s) dealt in a trade are not listed unless the trade occurred between the end of the season and the draft so that those picks would have been known at the time of the deal. Trades for unsigned rookies (such as the Eli Manning/Philip Rivers trade and the Drew Henson trade) were not included.
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An interesting read, especially if you want to see the world through rose-colored glasses. Carr is routinely overvalued, while others are routinely undervalued. Much is made of Carr's "upside" which, if I be plainspoken, seems like a figment of the writer's imagination, or, viewed another way, wishful thinking.

People looking at Carr now are going to see a shell-shocked QB (and I do not mean just the sacks, which take a toll, but also the fall from the "grace" of #1 overall pick, which has got to be a huge psychological toll) on whom they're taking a big chance. I will be stunned if anyone offers better than a mid-fourth rounder, but I wouldn't be surprised if it were a conditional 4th (with move up to a mid-third based on whatever goals to be reached).

I think this must be the sticking point and explains why Carr is still with us.

The interesting question is which side is going to bend first. I have a feeling it's not going to be the Texans, possibly to their detriment.
 
"Based on those trades, the minimum price for Carr would be a 2007 fourth-round pick or the equivalent.

Notably absent from that group are the two players to whom Carr has been most often compared throughout his pro career, fellow 2002 first-rounders Joey Harrington and, to a lesser extent, Patrick Ramsey. Some would argue that the three are so similar that the Texans would not be able to get more than the fifth-round pick that the Lions garnered for Harrington last year."
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That is an optimistic assessment, IMO. What's worth noting it is not Carr himself that, in my view, would be the "sticking point" in a trade. Rather it's Carr's contract.

Put his contract size up against Harrington's or Ramsey's, and the comparisons go out the window.

I'll be flat out shocked if he's traded . . . for anything.
 
His salary is definitly one thing that teams won't like.

But the whole comparison w/ ramsey and harrington is a delicate situation. The situation changes from year to year. If the lions got a 5th for harrington that year...the next maybe they could have gotten a 4th ...or even a 6th. It just depends on 'supply and demand'...something tampa bay has taken into their own hands w/ plummer/garcia...lol

next year a team may be more desperate and give us a 2nd for carr. on the flip side..there could be a lot more 'better' qb's available and offer a 6th..
 
Without even reading all of the article or other posts on here this tood out to me immediately:Without question, the Texans have made a significant investment in David Carr. They used the first overall pick in the 2002 draft on him, signed him to a significant contract, made him the sole focus of their quarterback development efforts, I think being the sole focus of quarterback development efforts is the kindest thing to possibly be said for what DC has gone through here. I'm not a str8 up DC hater like a few on here. I feel he's been done wrong since day1(except monetarily)and been set up for failure from the 1st snap. The Texans "quarterback development" program should be reviewed under the Geneva Convention or something. Whatever happens, I hope he has a great rest of his career....as long as it's with us or someone outside our division(I KNOW I'm getting hate mail for that one!!!!):victory:
 
Marcus said:
I'll be flat out shocked if he's traded . . . for anything.
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Me, too.

And based on that assumption, I am fully prepared to see Carr in TC. If he gets the starting job, I'll root for him like I would any Texan player on gameday. It's all about wins, and nothing else matters from a fan's pov.
 
Value is very relitive, and hind sight is 20/20. Last year for instance the Dolphins offered Culpepper a contract and not Breese, that played out well didn't it. Oakland cut Collins and picked up Aaron Brooks, another stroke of genius, The Bears started and stayed with Rex Grossman, well no decision that gets you to the SB is a bad one so let's move on. Eli-bad to worse, Rivers rookie starter to star, Pennington completeed the year, that's a big one. So look at what the players are getting this year. NFL QB's are always hot comodities, and Carr is worth what the maket will bear, and if it is not enough, keep him let him compete for the job.

Yes I know my spellings s&^%s,
 
Smith and Kubiak know what they can get. I think it is pretty obvious that Denver wanted a 4th for Plummer and we wouldn't give it up for him. They want to keep picks or wait until we have more. My thoughts are Carr will be traded at draft time. In fact it leads me to believe that we may trade down and still be able to get a guy like Nelson at safety and pick up picks. I also think at that point we would be able to get a 4th for carr and then we will see what happens wioth TB and Plummer. Do I think this is a perfect scenario?No. But it makes sense to me. I think Plummer wants to work with Kubes and the feeling is mutual. I think Kubes assessment, the team bickering, etc has led to the point where Carr will not be here. Before anyone jumps me, it is my opinion on the setup and the trade scenarios, nto rumors I have heard. Just feelings. As I've said 100 times lately, I don't think keeping Dave is a practical thing for the team right now.
 
Eli wouldn't have a job if his last name wasn't Manning. Trading them would be useless as they are both 1st Pick Busts.
 
Does this sound familiar or what?

Some excuses about Eli's "bad play" are: Loss of Toomer, Loss of Petigout,Bad Playcalling, all these are bad excuses. The loss of Toomer is not an excuse, he shuld've looked to shockey more often than just stare down Burress and his play was regressing befoe that anyways it was around the time the Giants played the Redskins at the beinning f the season, the loss of Petigout is not an excuse he was a mediocre LT and Manning is just afraid to step into his throws, and the pla calling wasn't bad, it's the QBs decision where the ball goes he's our general, Manning cannot manage the game all he does is throw to Burress, hes had so many offensive weapons to his disposal and his stats regressed last season.
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:)
 
I think if there's no draft day trade, the Texans will cut him.
Then I expect him to retire, Carr thinks he's starter material and quite honestly he never was or will be. So instead of being a backup QB somewhere, he'll retire and go count all his money.
good riddance.
 
Malloy said:
Only if we can have Peyton :)
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Just to be clear, I'm on the "Carr needs to go" bandwagon, but some of you "Eli is a bust" characters need to get back on the "quarterback can't do it all" bandwagon.

Carr has made some you jaded. Or maybe, it's the QB from Tennessee that did it.
 
Marcus said:
Just to be clear, I'm on the "Carr needs to go" bandwagon, but some of you "Eli is a bust" characters need to get back on the "quarterback can't do it all" bandwagon.

Carr has made some you jaded. Or maybe, it's the QB from Tennessee that did it.
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I agree, it's way to early to call Eli a bust. But he brought this criticism on himself.

It's hard enough playing in the Shadow of "The Great Archie Manning" imagine having to live up to that along with the expectations of living up to what Peyton has done.

Then on top of all that, the team he refused to play on was 14-2 in '06, and are probably SuperBowl favorites for '07.

The thing about Eli, is that he has all the things that some here say Carr needs to be successful. Grossman is the same way. They've both had good games, and they've both had Awefull games. But the rest of the team gets them wins. My point, is even with good teams, bad QB play gets called out. Eli's only been in the league 3 years... Grossman was darn near a rookie in '06... but the expectations are high. Fair or not, that's the way it is.
 
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