MorKnolle
All Pro
Going into the weekend I really thought the winner of the Patriots/Chargers game would be the eventual champ, and after this set of games I have to say I believe that as much as ever now. The Patriots easily have the most balanced team left, they have a ton of playoff experience, and they are playing very good defense right now. I'd love to see Peyton Manning finally win a Super Bowl and I despise the Patriots franchise, but Peyton is already struggling as of late anyways and he always has problems against 3-4 defenses, especially the Patriots. The Chiefs and Ravens both have a pretty badly one-sided offense that the Colts defense could concentrate on, but the Pats have shown the ability to win games all year long either passing the ball a bunch, running the ball a bunch, or a combination thereof. Here's a look at the offensive and defensive ranks of the remaining teams during the regular season:
Patriots - 11th total offense, 7th scoring offense, 6th total defense, 2nd scoring defense
Colts - 3rd total offense, T-2nd scoring offense, 21st total defense, 23rd scoring defense
Saints - 1st total offense, 5th scoring offense, 11th total defense, 13th scoring defense
Bears - 15th total offense, T-2nd scoring offense, 5th total defense, 3rd scoring defense
I composed a thread back before the draft comparing the last 20 Super Bowl winners, and in the last 20 years the worst scoring defense to win the Super Bowl was ranked 8th during that season, and the average league rank among those winners was 3.6, so if you want to follow that pattern the Saints and Colts won't win the big game. Add in that the Patriots have plenty of experience winning in the playoffs in winning three of the last five Super Bowls whereas the Saints just won their 2nd playoff game ever, the first since the 2000 season, and the Bears just had their first playoff win since the 1994 season, and although the Colts have had very successful regular seasons this is just the 2nd time in Manning's career that they've made it to the AFC championship game, for that matter coming into this season Peyton was only 3-6 in the playoffs for his career.
As much as it pains me to say so, I think they Patriots are too complete of a team and are playing too well right now to be beat. The Colts have managed to win two playoff games despite Peyton Manning so far and I expect his struggles will continue and likely get worse next week, and the Patriots are too good of a team for the Colts to beat without Maning putting up a career day. I don't think either NFC teams can hang with them, but then again on any given Sunday anything can happen, just not looking likely at this point.
Patriots - 11th total offense, 7th scoring offense, 6th total defense, 2nd scoring defense
Colts - 3rd total offense, T-2nd scoring offense, 21st total defense, 23rd scoring defense
Saints - 1st total offense, 5th scoring offense, 11th total defense, 13th scoring defense
Bears - 15th total offense, T-2nd scoring offense, 5th total defense, 3rd scoring defense
I composed a thread back before the draft comparing the last 20 Super Bowl winners, and in the last 20 years the worst scoring defense to win the Super Bowl was ranked 8th during that season, and the average league rank among those winners was 3.6, so if you want to follow that pattern the Saints and Colts won't win the big game. Add in that the Patriots have plenty of experience winning in the playoffs in winning three of the last five Super Bowls whereas the Saints just won their 2nd playoff game ever, the first since the 2000 season, and the Bears just had their first playoff win since the 1994 season, and although the Colts have had very successful regular seasons this is just the 2nd time in Manning's career that they've made it to the AFC championship game, for that matter coming into this season Peyton was only 3-6 in the playoffs for his career.
As much as it pains me to say so, I think they Patriots are too complete of a team and are playing too well right now to be beat. The Colts have managed to win two playoff games despite Peyton Manning so far and I expect his struggles will continue and likely get worse next week, and the Patriots are too good of a team for the Colts to beat without Maning putting up a career day. I don't think either NFC teams can hang with them, but then again on any given Sunday anything can happen, just not looking likely at this point.