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Another Carr Statistic TD/Comp

Wharton

Wharton

Rookie
Well, it’s the day before Turkey day and since I have nothing better to do, I decided to think about football. Specifically, How does DC throw 22 strait completions without a TD? How does DC fair against the rest of th e league? The table below was taken from Yahoo and modified slightly to show us the percentage of TD per completion and the percentage of TD per attempt.
Name____________G_____QBRat____Comp____Att____Pct_____TD____TD/Comp____TD/Att
Rex Grossman________10_____83.5_____177_____312_____56.7_____18_____10.17%_____5.77%
Donovan McNabb_____10_____95.5_____180_____316_____57.0_____18_____10.00%_____5.70%
Seneca Wallace_________6_____76.2_____82_____141_____58.2______8_____9.76%_____5.67%
Matt Hasselbeck________6_____82.8_____103_____176_____58.5_____10_____9.71%_____5.68%
Tom Brady___________10_____88.1_____199_____334_____59.6_____19_____9.55%_____5.69%
Michael Vick_________10_____74.3_____140_____267_____52.4_____13_____9.29%_____4.87%
Carson Palmer________10_____97.7_____203_____322_____63.0_____18_____8.87%_____5.59%
Peyton Manning_______10_____100.5____230_____359_____64.1_____20_____8.70%_____5.57%
Eli Manning___________9_____81.0_____174_____293_____59.4_____15_____8.62%_____5.12%
Drew Bledsoe_________6_____69.2______90_____169_____53.3______7_____7.78%_____4.14%
Tony Romo__________10_____100.0___103_____151_____68.2_______8_____7.77%_____5.30%
Damon Huard_________9_____97.6_____146_____241_____60.6_____11_____7.53%_____4.56%
Philip Rivers_________10_____99.7_____201_____300_____67.0_____15_____7.46%_____5.00%
Bruce Gradkowski_____9_____73.7_____129_____239_____54.0_______9_____6.98%_____3.77%
Drew Brees__________10_____95.1_____254_____383_____66.3_____17_____6.69%_____4.44%
Jake Plummer________10_____69.7_____150_____276_____54.3_____10_____6.67%_____3.62%
Byron Leftwich_______6_____79.0_____108_____183_____59.0_______7_____6.48%_____3.83%
Brett Favre__________10_____80.1_____208_____367_____56.7_____13_____6.25%_____3.54%
Ben Roethlisberger____9_____75.8_____192_____306_____62.7______12_____6.25%_____3.92%
J.P. Losman_________10_____85.1_____164_____262_____62.6_____10_____6.10%_____3.82%
Alex Smith__________10_____82.7_____169_____274_____61.7_____10_____5.92%_____3.65%
Chad Pennington_____10_____76.8_____177_____286_____61.9_____10_____5.65%_____3.50%
Jake Delhomme______10_____81.1_____195_____329_____59.3_____11_____5.64%_____3.34%
Marc Bulger_________10_____93.9_____231_____364_____63.5_____13_____5.63%_____3.57%
Steve McNair________10_____78.1_____186_____304_____61.2_____10_____5.38%_____3.29%
Matt Leinart__________7_____68.1_____118_____220_____53.6______6_____5.08%_____2.73%
Mark Brunell_________9_____86.5_____162_____260_____62.3_______8_____4.94%_____3.08%
Jon Kitna___________10_____80.9_____229_____364_____62.9_____11_____4.80%_____3.02%
David Carr__________10_____89.5_____198_____285_____69.5______9_____4.55%_____3.16%
Charlie Frye_________10_____73.8_____198_____316_____62.7_____9_____4.55%_____2.85%
Brad Johnson________10_____73.4_____207_____332_____62.3_____5_____2.42%_____1.51%

Its pretty obvious, DC does not fair well against the rest of the league when it comes to throwing TDs. Then I thought, is this a pattern with DC? Well, 2004 DC’s TD/Comp was ranked 26th in the NFL at 5.61% and in 2005 he ranked 25th at 5.47%.

Surprisingly, this data actually shows DC regressing in some ways. Since 2003 DC has increased his % complete each year, yet the percentage of TD completions has fallen. Also, considering he has been sacked less this year then in years past, DC is still not getting the ball into the endzone.

There is a lot of reason for DC to be at the bottom of the list as far as number of TD completions other then his poor play such as:
Poor field position: While I don’t have any number on this, considering our defense doesn’t get too many turnovers, I suspect, the Texans are at the low end of the field position scale.
Poor line play: While the line is playing better this year then last, I wouldn’t exactly say they are good.
Mediocre running game: I suspect when DD was healthy, DC played better, but all in all, I’d say we have not displayed a good running game.

Oh well, that's all the time I have to play at work. All you Carr Homers can trash me now.
 
Wharton, good analysis and breakdown, but this shouldn't be surprising because the Texans average about 16 points a game since 2002 any which way slice it. So, the stats you are pointing out are going to be low.
 
Wharton said:
There is a lot of reason for DC to be at the bottom of the list as far as number of TD completions other then his poor play such as:
Poor field position: While I don’t have any number on this, considering our defense doesn’t get too many turnovers, I suspect, the Texans are at the low end of the field position scale.
Poor line play: While the line is playing better this year then last, I wouldn’t exactly say they are good.
Mediocre running game: I suspect when DD was healthy, DC played better, but all in all, I’d say we have not displayed a good running game.
Click to expand...

I think you started to touch on it right there. Statistics only tell you a part of the story. On Sunday what I saw was a guy growing in confidence, throwing well, making a ton of completions and doing his part to get the team into good field positions and hold onto the football. There were also a few big passing plays that would have gone for a TD if Nate Clements wasn't so damn good.

We're playing conservative football this year, so his TDs are bound to be down, but his INTs are down too and - most importantly - we're competing every week. More TDs would be great, but he's got 2 more than this time last year (and 1 less INT) and next year I suspect it'll be considerably more than that. :twocents:
 
hollywood_texan said:
Wharton, good analysis and breakdown, but this shouldn't be surprising because the Texans average about 16 points a game since 2002 any which way slice it. So, the stats you are pointing out are going to be low.
Click to expand...
Oh, I agree. It was either play on excel breaking down DC's statistics or doing work. What can I say, I chose to play.
 
wharton, we had a running game against buffalo and he had 0 td's. Interesting to look at Sage's stat at 11.11% in the limited action he has seen with a qb rating of 103.
 
profan said:
wharton, we had a running game against buffalo and he had 0 td's. Interesting to look at Sage's stat at 11.11% in the limited action he has seen with a qb rating of 103.
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Well, your right.

My comment was more general then a specific game. I think in general we could say that our running game over the past three years has been inconsistant.

While the Buffalo game looks like a freak occurance. It was actually predictable given DC's TD/Comp has fallen from '04 and '05 numbers and ranking even though DC has gotten better protection and better weapons, specifically a pass catching TE and a legit #2 WR.

Carr does not show the appearance of being a "gunslinger" as many on this board have predicted for next year.
 
Wharton said:
Surprisingly, this data actually shows DC regressing in some ways. Since 2003 DC has increased his % complete each year, yet the percentage of TD completions has fallen. Also, considering he has been sacked less this year then in years past, DC is still not getting the ball into the endzone.
Click to expand...


I think what people fail to realize when it comes to Carr and the "long ball" or "field vision" is the fact that we're still in the midst of transitioning to a West Coast offense, and while Carr has run a similar type of offense in college, the Pro-style West Coast offense generally takes 2-3 years for a QB to get fully acclimated to.

That being said...I do think he should be vastly improved next season compared to now. He's shown the flashes of what he can do in this offense, and he obviously excels in the West Coast philosophy (short passes, etc.). I think when Kubiak feels Carr is more comfortable with things, he'll open up the long ball more (I think this will especially be the case when we get Mathis back).
 
troubling to me, was www.footballoutsiders.com had stats on it and it was redzone td percentage.. last season Carr had 1 more chance than hasselback, but hasselback had more TD's.

of course I am comparing a superbowl team to ours and the talent isn't there.
and Capers will never be compared to Holgrem in terms of coaching an offense.
 
he has the best completion percentage...that would be cool with me if the running game was getting the TDs done, but they are not
 
I love the stats, and it tells me, Homer, that Carr needs to improve. I also saw that Kubiak stated that teams are playing us three deep keeping everything in front of them so we have to call the short pass ( just passing HIS words ). I still have a major problem with Cook, he could have kept us in the Giant game and this last one, he needs the same treatment Carr received, your out of there, put Bruner in, if for nothing else to show him he can be replaced too.
I only get to watch the game once, but it seems to me that in the third quarter Kubiak went 3 & out, 4 & out, 3 & out, trying to run, and behind the line WR screens, that we do poorly, my opinion on the play/play calling still is as it always has been, throw MORE, short passing works for us use it, till someone stops us, our game still can make a first down with any consistantcy. I think Kubiak needs to attack when he has a lead, no-one will be looking for it.
 
Carr threw 4 TDs in his 1st 2 games-5 in his last 8. Too. we don't light up the score board from the rushing side either. We don't have a defense that can go 'lights out,' so what's a team suppose to do?...if it wants to win games? Last year, Carr threw 6 TDs in the last 6 games, so that's not a 'big' hurdle to climb and he only needs 5 TDs to match '05's dismal total of 14.

Scoring points has never been a 'strong' point of the Texans, and that certainly continues this year. If Carr continues on his 10 game avg, he will match last years 14--if he continues his last 8 avg (zero in his last 4), he won't.

IMO, these last 6 games are going to say a lot about where this team is headed with Carr as the QB. This is turning into one of those 'would you have thought years?' If I told you before the season that Carr would not match his anemic TD total passes of 14 of '05, what would you have said?:yahoo:
 
NATHANHALE said:
Scoring points has never been a 'strong' point of the Texans, and that certainly continues this year. If Carr continues on his 10 game avg, he will match last years 14--if he continues his last 8 avg (zero in his last 4), he won't.
Click to expand...

it's curious that those last 4 games were also games that we were still in..... Our offense doesn't score touchdowns when we have the lead. It's the damndest thing I've ever seen.
 
Tayton said:
Any list that has Rex Grossman on top has got to have inherent problems.
Click to expand...

Well, he must be doing something right, as his team has won 3 times more games than the Texans--part of the problem may be, that while somw QB's improve in the league to lead their teams to wins, some don't..............
 
NATHANHALE said:
Well, he must be doing something right, as his team has won 3 times more games than the Texans--part of the problem may be, that while somw QB's improve in the league to lead their teams to wins, some don't..............
Click to expand...

yeah and we have a defense that rivals the bears
 
Scoring points--our offense has scored 0-7 pts in 33/40 qtrs-82.5%.
our defense has given up 0-7 pts in 30/40 qtrs-75%
 
NATHANHALE said:
...question is, would Carr be able to put points on the board with the Bears?
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Having the Bears defense may shorten the field a bit, but I doubt the quality of defense has much to do with the QB's ability to put the ball in the endzone.

The Seahawks defense rated in the bottom half of the NFL and Seneca Wallace (a backup) is ranked no. 3 on the list and the Colts defense isn’t much better and Payton has some big numbers too. Not to mention Bruce Gradkowski is also a backup QB with a crappy defense and his TD / Comp is very respectable.

So I don’t see the connection between Grossman having a good defense and him throwing TDs.
 
I am not saying Carr is the greatest ever ,but this is a team game and most bashers forget that.
 
Wolf said:
I am not saying Carr is the greatest ever ,but this is a team game and most bashers forget that.
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That's a tired arguement.

Ok here our usual reply - Yes and Carr Homers blame it on everything else but David. Apparently now it's the defense's fault that DC stinks.

Come up with something new.

:neener:
 
After watching Rivers and Romo the one thing I'm sure of is its better to take a little longer with your QB than to rush him . Of course this is only for rookies .
 
Wolf said:
I am not saying Carr is the greatest ever ,but this is a team game and most bashers forget that.
Click to expand...

IMO, no NFL player is 'coddled' the way Carr has been. From different protection schemes to different receiver and running backs and tight ends to play calling designed not to upset him, etc.

Yes, it's a team game so why does Carr require so much 'personal attention?'
All around the NFL, new QB's are stepping up and leading their team to victories but David has to have a game plan that features 3yds of the ball in the air and a run for the other 4 yds. How many QBs in the NFL have to have 'max protect?'--2 tackles/2guards/a center/2 tight ends/ and a running back....geezzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

What's left to give Carr? Yea, it's suppose to be a team game...but not in Houston.:brickwall :brickwall :brickwall
 
wow Carr was coddled by capers and not kubiak , but y'all can't give a half a season to unlearn what he has learned for 4 years ..o well, I guess y'alll learn ever new job in a day
 
I might sound like a total carr homer but those Stats don't measure David Carr's heart LMAO its the system that hurt him all along Capers never let him develop the line doesn't block no running game what else Vince Young Put A curse on him im running out of excuses here Homer's unite help me they are bashing our Golden Boy.
 
Wharton said:
That's a tired arguement.

Ok here our usual reply - Yes and Carr Homers blame it on everything else but David. Apparently now it's the defense's fault that DC stinks.

Come up with something new.

:neener:
Click to expand...
and the carr haters don't see that the team helps out
 
Wolf said:
wow Carr was coddled by capers and not kubiak , but y'all can't give a half a season to unlearn what he has learned for 4 years ..o well, I guess y'alll learn ever new job in a day
Click to expand...

Kubiak has stated many times he has had to 'dumb down' the playbook for Carr. He has also said Carr has a long way to go. Our offense has virtually the same results/out put of last year. Kubiak said we'd be aggressive and do whatever it took to win---notttttttttt.

Please.please, tell me where this years offense is so much different than last years! We're on pace to score 'fewer' points and I wonder if we will go down in history as the only NFL team without a verticle passing attack with Carr at QB.

Kubiak's not 'coddling' Carr? What more could he do to 'cater' to David?:yahoo:
 
NATHANHALE said:
Kubiak has stated many times he has had to 'dumb down' the playbook for Carr.
Click to expand...

That is not true. If you have a place where you can point to that says that, please provide the link, should be easy if he has stated it many times. Otherwise, please don't post false info. Please bear in mind that saying they are working to institute the play book, or there are more things they are going to work on, does not constitute dumbing anything down.
 
Kubiak said that he needs to find ways to help Carr get off to a faster start. He said he had thought he had done it, but may have to make it even simpler.....

It'll take some time to find it, but we had a whole thread based on that statement.

You don't have to believe it if you don't want. but it's true.

It's even true that Kubiak has said that he has had to un-install, and re-install the system three times... one reason, was because of the difficulty David has had in picking it up.......
 
You have AJ run out at the 1 yard line in the last game for no reason, and its more about wins than #8s TD ratio.
 
This is from a John McClain`s blog in the Houston Chronicle. What's wrong with this picture: Don Meredith, Roger Staubach, Danny White, Troy Aikman, Tony Romo. Tony Romo? If the kid's not a one-hit wonder, he looks like he could be special. And guess who's coaching him? Chris Palmer. Yes, the same Chris Palmer who was the Texans' scapegoat in 2005 when he was fired after the first two games. Railroaded out of town because the team was in disarray.

I guess Palmer can still coach a little, huh? Romo hadn't throw a pass until Palmer started coaching him early in the offseason. The Tuna was smart to hire Palmer to coach a young quarterback. So many of you were quick to blame what was wrong with Carr and the offense on Palmer, and now you're saying Carr's making the same mistakes. If Chris Palmer and Gary Kubiak can't make a legitimate, winning NFL quarterback out of David Carr, I don't think anybody can.
 
the number that stands out to me is the completion percentage ... it leads the league however we cant score. i'm not appologizing for carr because i want more out of him also, but if he's completing 70% of his passes, it's up to his receivers to start making those big plays. a big play doesnt have to be a 40 yard jump ball to AJ, it has to be a catch and run. our receivers and tight ends are getting open short (as the west coast offense is designed to do), carr's finding them, completing it ... and that's it. i cant off of the top of my head think of a single big run this season. there arent any broken tackles. no major downfield blocks to spring a crossing route. this offense was built to feature a whole lot of running, and a qb that is able to complete a lot of short "catch & run" passes or be able to take off himself. carr's done his job IMO.

rushing yards ..... 22nd
rushing td's ....... 24th (with only 6 td's, 2 of which are carr's)
passing yards ..... 19th
passing td's ....... 16th
field goals ......... 28th

our passing attack is the best thing going for us, and carr's rating & completion percentage reflect that he's doing his part. our running backs (where we're supposed to be scoring our td's) have had their combined year long output tied by ladanian tomlinson, in a single game, in consecutive games.
 
Wolf said:
troubling to me, was www.footballoutsiders.com had stats on it and it was redzone td percentage.. last season Carr had 1 more chance than hasselback, but hasselback had more TD's.

of course I am comparing a superbowl team to ours and the talent isn't there.
and Capers will never be compared to Holgrem in terms of coaching an offense.
Click to expand...

Yeah no sheet shelock. Be nice one year in the draft, instaed of watching them sail away to other clubs we actually land a top OLT prospect. Ya think that might have something to do with it ? I mean IMHO it's kind of a steep drop off between Walter Jones and Efferin. I mean some of the big posters were ready to kick Salaam out onto the street out of camp. Blind man can see it. The guy is so shell shocked now he is pretty much worthless. Kinda like a self fulfilling prophecey for the Carr Bashers. We deserve to be picking where we're picking this year. Fix the GD offensive line. Dump Carr if y'all want. Draft the OU power back. The FS out of LSU...Stick with the guys we currently have on the rooster on the o-line. We'll be right back here next thanksgiving disscussing the short commings of the new guy or Sage or whomever. It ain't the running backs. It ain't the quarterback. I mean it'd of been one thing after Bosselli they had gone after another coner stone. And there are still people on the board upset of Wand getting cut loose. But the bottom line is, this organization took this guy over Peppers...and then left the guy twisting under the scoffolding. You can rag on Carr all you want...the rest of the league, the ones who don't have a dog in this fight knows. And I do too. We took a great prospect and squandered him.
 
Scooter said:
the number that stands out to me is the completion percentage ... it leads the league however we cant score. i'm not appologizing for carr because i want more out of him also, but if he's completing 70% of his passes, it's up to his receivers to start making those big plays. a big play doesnt have to be a 40 yard jump ball to AJ, it has to be a catch and run. our receivers and tight ends are getting open short (as the west coast offense is designed to do), carr's finding them, completing it ... and that's it. i cant off of the top of my head think of a single big run this season. there arent any broken tackles. no major downfield blocks to spring a crossing route. this offense was built to feature a whole lot of running, and a qb that is able to complete a lot of short "catch & run" passes or be able to take off himself. carr's done his job IMO.

rushing yards ..... 22nd
rushing td's ....... 24th (with only 6 td's, 2 of which are carr's)
passing yards ..... 19th
passing td's ....... 16th
field goals ......... 28th

our passing attack is the best thing going for us, and carr's rating & completion percentage reflect that he's doing his part. our running backs (where we're supposed to be scoring our td's) have had their combined year long output tied by ladanian tomlinson, in a single game, in consecutive games.
Click to expand...

...agree, except there is also the 'verticle' passing game that goes with the WCO--because no one respects are verticle game, they key on our short game--that is why, like on that 3rd/2 play, AJ had 3 defenders on him for a 'dink' pass.

Carr is not getting the ball down field enough and, IMO, is a big reason we don't score many points--Carr has always thrown short, so I'm not suprised he's accurate at tossing tha ball a few feet

Too, Carr has only thrown 9 TD passes (0 in the last 4 games), which ranks him at 28th in the league...as I posted before, his most recent trend has him at fewer TDs than '05--entire season trend has him matching last yr--1/3 of his 9 tds came in one game (3 in garbage time against the Colts)...

Without question-if we want to see more wins-we need more points from somewhere...
 
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