Picking first - Blessing or curse?

So reading the Bush thread got me thinking. Is the way the NFL set up really beneficial? The worst team picks first, landing the best rookie available and hopefully building their franchisse around him. But lets look at the numbers:

1st round picks are averaging insane salaries. They are making nearly 10 million a year, without ever playing a single down of football. And the majority of that is guaranteed money.

Unless they play as well as a top 5 player at their position, they are being overpaid. And even then sometimes they are being overpaid. Here are the
averages for the top 5 highest paid players at each position:

Quarterback $8.789 million $8.327 million
Defensive end $8.332 million $7.075 million
Linebacker $7.169 million $6.144 million
Offensive line $6.983 million $6.391 million
Wide receiver $6.172 million $5.160 million
Running back $6.085 million $5.153 million
Cornerback $5.893 million $4.774 million
Defensive tackle $5.656 million $4.463 million
Safety $4.109 million $3.592 million
Tight end $3.327 million $2.718 million
Kicker-punter $2.468 million $2.045 million

So if you draft a player who doesnt produce, you are screwed, as all your salary is tied up and you can't sign good FAs.

I know it doesn't make sense to have the draft in any other order, but there needs to be a limit imposed on rookie contracts. In my opinion, they are getting completely out of hand. If a rookie WR or Safety is taken first in the draft, they could be the highest paid player at their position without ever even playing a single snap.

And so, you have hit on why it's almost impossible to trade out of a top 5 pick. Too much risk and too much impact on your cap.

hard to call it a curse when you have a chance to add the best player in the draft to your team.

kastofsna said:

hard to call it a curse when you have a chance to add the best player in the draft to your team.

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Usually, the best players in the draft don't go in the top ten.

We have drafted pretty crappily over the years:

2002 -
Carr, Pitts, Weary, Faggins still here.
Carr has taken 5 years to develop, Gaffney was a bust, Pitts has been average, Weary has underachieved, and the rest of our 9 picks (except for Faggins) have been useless.

2003 -
Johnson, Peek, Davis still here.
Johnson is our best draft choice yet, Peek has underachieved, Davis has been great but is always hurt and his career may be over. Hollings, Joppru, Wand and the rest of them were flops.

2004 -
Robinson, Babin, Earl still here.
We gave up WAY too much for Babin, an underachiever. Robinson is hit or miss, Earl should be a backup, and the rest aren't even on the team.

2005 -
TJ, Brown, Hodgon, Mathis
TJ is an enigma, Brown should be a backup, Hodgon may not even be serviceable as a backup, mathis is uncoachable and injury prone, Buchannon (our 2nd and 3rd rounder) has been a COMPLETE debacle.

We have had some tough years building through the draft!

mexican_texan said:

Usually, the best players in the draft don't go in the top ten.

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if you have good scouting and you have the first pick, you should be able to find the best player.

Luv_ya_blue said:

2005
1 San Francisco Alex Smith QB Utah
2 Miami Ronnie Brown RB Auburn
3 Cleveland Braylon Edwards WR Michigan
4 Chicago Cedric Benson RB Texas
5 Tampa Bay Carnell Williams RB Auburn

2004
1 San Diego Eli Manning QB Mississippi
2 Oakland Robert Gallery T Iowa
3 Arizona Larry Fitzgerald WR Pittsburgh
4 N.Y. Giants Philip Rivers QB North Carolina State
5 Washington Sean Taylor FS Miami

2003
1 Cincinnati Carson Palmer QB Southern California
2 Detroit Charles Rogers WR Michigan State
3 Houston Andre Johnson WR Miami
4 N.Y. Jets Dewayne Robertson DT Kentucky
5 Dallas Terence Newman CB Kansas State

2002
1 Houston David Carr QB Fresno State
2 Carolina Julius Peppers DE North Carolina
3 Detroit Joey Harrington QB Oregon
4 Buffalo Mike Williams T Texas
5 San Diego Quentin Jammer CB Texas

2001
1 Atlanta Michael Vick QB Virginia Tech
2 Arizona Leonard Davis T Texas
3 Cleveland Gerard Warren DT Florida
4 Cincinnati Justin Smith DE Missouri
5 San Diego LaDainian Tomlinson RB Texas Christian

Not bad company if you ask me???

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i'm trying to figure out why some people were bolded and some weren't...

kastofsna said:

if you have good scouting and you have the first pick, you should be able to find the best player.

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If you have good scouting, you shouldn't be picking in the top five.

kastofsna said:

i'm trying to figure out why some people were bolded and some weren't...

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At first I thought it was standouts...then I saw Charles Rogers.

yeah, I didn't get it either?

None of those teams on that list have won a super bowl either. Whether its due to the cap constraints from having a high pick or just simply because they are bad teams is probably a good debate.

Here is a good indication of the best rookies:
OROY Awards since 2002:
Clinton Portis - 2nd round
Anquan Boldin - 2nd round
Ben Roethlisberger - 1st round, pick 11
Carnell Williams - 1st round, pick 5

DROY
Julius Peppers - 1st round, pick 2
Terrell Suggs - 1st round, pick 10
Jonathan Vilma - 1st round, pick 12
Shawne Merrimam - 1st round, pick 12

So out of the last 4 years, 3 of 8 ROYs have been top 10 (1 was #10). None were the #1 pick. Interesting, no?

mexican_texan said:

At first I thought it was standouts...then I saw Charles Rogers.

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plus ferguson is excellent. and ronnie brown. and rivers and smith are doing great this year.

Why no rings?

Luv_ya_blue said:

2005 Too early
1 San Francisco Alex Smith QB Utah
2 Miami Ronnie Brown RB Auburn
3 Cleveland Braylon Edwards WR Michigan
4 Chicago Cedric Benson RB Texas
5 Tampa Bay Carnell Williams RB Auburn

2004
1 San Diego Eli Manning QB Mississippi Bad mechanics
2 Oakland Robert Gallery T Iowa No explanation needed
3 Arizona Larry Fitzgerald WR Pittsburgh see above
4 N.Y. Giants Philip Rivers QB North Carolina State might make it this year
5 Washington Sean Taylor FS Miami Washington has never been great, but it wasn't Taylor's fault

2003
1 Cincinnati Carson Palmer QB Southern California Injured in playoffs
2 Detroit Charles Rogers WR Michigan State No explanation needed
3 Houston Andre Johnson WR Miami see above
4 N.Y. Jets Dewayne Robertson DT Kentucky Nothing special, got to AFC championship
5 Dallas Terence Newman CB Kansas State Dallas needs a QB

2002
1 Houston David Carr QB Fresno State Expansion team
2 Carolina Julius Peppers DE North Carolina Lost IN Super Bowl
3 Detroit Joey Harrington QB Oregon played for Lions
4 Buffalo Mike Williams T Texas Flat out bust, Bills never developed
5 San Diego Quentin Jammer CB Texas Could make it this year, he certainly didn't help San Diego advance in the playoffs

2001
1 Atlanta Michael Vick QB Virginia Tech Still raw, never let loose. Got to NFC Championship
2 Arizona Leonard Davis T Texas It's the Cards
3 Cleveland Gerard Warren DT Florida It's the Browns
4 Cincinnati Justin Smith DE Missouri Kitna couldn't cut it
5 San Diego LaDainian Tomlinson RB Texas Christian Only talent on team once

Not bad company if you ask me???

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Luv_ya_blue said:

Just because I thought they were pretty good players IMO.
That's all.

By the way...what does "kastofsna" mean?
I've tried to make it at least 3 dozen different things.

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it's an odd mix-mash mixup of my first and last name.

Luv_ya_blue said:

Good grief guys.
All I did was compile a list of the top 5 picks over the past five years and threw in my opinions on a few players. It was mentioned that "Usually, the best players in the draft don't go in the top ten." Simply put, I was trying to dismiss that notion. Seems to me that there are some pretty talented players that have went in the top 10.

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Not in top ten:
Shawne Merriman
Lofa Tatupu
DeMeco Ryans
HenderStroud
Jason Taylor
Jerry Rice
TO
Randy Moss
Steve Smith
Chad Johnson
Eric Moulds
Marvin Harrison

mexican_texan said:

Not in top ten:
Shawne Merriman
Lofa Tatupu
DeMeco Ryans
HenderStroud
Jason Taylor
Jerry Rice
TO
Randy Moss
Steve Smith
Chad Johnson
Eric Moulds
Marvin Harrison

Click to expand...

teams that pick out of the top ten already have some talent

championship teams are built in the 2nd through 4th or even later rounds....and competent gm can grab a capable player through the 1st or 2nd round, its the teams thats able to grab starters/playmakers through the 3rd through 5th round or later that become the elite teams in this league. thats why I'm excited about this years draft class. the pats and eagles constantly grab good players.....thats why they compete year after year while staying healthy cap wise.

This league is so tight, you win through coaching and being able to pluck players late.

I would agree that the amount rookies get paid is insane nowadays. Bush became the highest paid back in the league the second he signed his contract, without playing a single down. I would love for him to be the best back in the league but he's nowhere near that good.

Its worse for rookie QBs who usually don't even start until their their second year. They get paid millions to sit the bench and "learn".

I think rookie contracts should be similiar to now the NHL and NBA does it. They should be short (no more than 3-4 years), have reasonable base pay and have bonuses if you really do live up to the hype.