I reserve my final prediction when the preseason ends, but as it stands now, the Texans are good for 4 to 5 wins next season.
I break it down like this:
The First Six Games - These teams have talent to make a run for the playoffs. Further, all of these teams will be looking at their schedule and the Texans as taking care of business to complete their playoff run. As it stands now, all of these teams have better talent, experience, and argueably better coaching staffs. To go a step further, the opener is huge against Philadelpia. If they win that game, look for them to possibly go 3-3 in that stretch. If they lose to the Eagles, look for the Texans to maybe win 2 games in the first six. Right now, my call is they go 1 - 5 in the first six games, beating either Miami or Jacksonville.
Games 7 through 13 - The schedule lightens up against opponents, but they have 5 of 7 on the road in this stretch. If there is really anyway they are going to go 8 - 8 this year or better, this is the strecth where they have to make it happen. Games they have a shot at winning are Tennessee (actually, they play them twice in this stretch because they are a divisional opponent), Buffalo, Jets, and Oakland. That is 5 games they could knock down as W's, but keep in mind 3 of those games are on the road. Right now, my call is 3 - 4 on this seven game stretch.
Games 14 through 16 - Here is crunch time. Go into the teeth of the Patriots in December and then have Indy and Cleveland at home to close out the season. Right now, my call is 1-2 in this stretch. However, I think the game against Indy at home will be a good one and I have some feeling the Texans will be playing well enough at that point in the season to beat them. Since it is just a feeling, I am not giving them a W though for this analysis. Basically, they beat the Browns to wrap up the season in this stretch.
Here is the breakdown,
First stretch 1 - 5
Second stretch 3 - 4
Third stretch 1 - 2
Record 5 - 11
As I said earlier, the Philadelphia game is huge to start the season off if they want to sniff around 8-8 for the season. I don't see them beating Indy in week 2 and at best splitting between Miami and Washington. Same with Dallas and Jacksonville. This team has never won more than 2 games in a row and I really don't see that changing this season.
Bottom line, the first six games will be a guide to the entire season. If they can get through that stretch at 3 - 3 (or even better), they will be sitting pretty for a really good push to show they are competitive in the NFL.
The pessimist in me thinks they could easily go 0 - 6 on the first six games.
There you go, rip me a new one.
I'm not going to get into that arguement on here as that would belong to a thread of a different topic.
