What is Expected from Reggie Bush and David Carr next year.

With hours away from signing Reggie Bush, I think it is a good time to analyze what the Fans should expect from Reggie Bush. As a running back, we should look into Denver’s scheme last year to compute an expected output of performance expected by Reggie Bush. Last year Mike Anderson shared carries with Tatum Bell. Mike had 239 carries for 1014 yards and 12 TD. You people believe Reggie Bush is the best running back to come out in 30 years, the next Barry Sanders but better ( oh by the way Barry had a rookie season with 1470 yards 280 carries and 14 TD’s). Given Reggie is the first pick selection, his expected 60 million dollar contract, as a fan I believe Reggie Bush should have 220 to 240 carries and 1400 to 1600 yards with at least 14 TD’s on the ground. This is a feasible expectation if he is the number one pick, and if you people think he is the greatest of all time. Anything less then these numbers and Reggie Bush is a flop and a waste of the number one pick! It also shows that 100% of the media don’t know crap, as well as those self-proclaimed draft guru’s! With David Carr we can set the bar a bit higher than we have with Reggie since he too was a #1 over all plus he has had four years behind the belt. David Carr is a lot like Jake Plummer over the beginning of his career, except Jake Plummer has talent IMO and had better numbers over his first four but not by a very large margin. Plummer last year threw for 3336 with 18 TD and 7 INT. Given that number, plus the fact that the management feels Carr is going to be the guy, we should expect no less that 3500 to 3600 yard 21 TD and no more than 10 INT. With this said the Texans will be a top 5 team next year, and we will be in the playoffs. People say Reggie is a guaranteed success, a no brain #1, hey he better deliver. If he fails, I say Charley C. should take his BS some where else because Houston is sick of it. If this is the result next year, then we should comment the guys and hook up the GM with a pay raise.

I expect good things. ESPN Draft Special is doing a "Two-a-Day" on the Texans.

If the kid produces those numbers then we know we have something special. Next year has to be the one, no ands if's or but's about it. If they don't want to draft for the future, if they feel that this wil make us a winner, then next year better be a playoff year. If not we should ship Carr's dead beat butt to the gutter and send Charley C. butt right along with him.

Frank_The_Tank said:

Given Reggie is the first pick selection, his expected 60 million dollar contract, as a fan I believe Reggie Bush should have 220 to 240 carries and 1400 to 1600 yards with at least 14 TD’s on the ground. This is a feasible expectation if he is the number one pick, and if you people think he is the greatest of all time. Anything less then these numbers and Reggie Bush is a flop and a waste of the number one pick! It also shows that 100% of the media don’t know crap, as well as those self-proclaimed draft guru’s!

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So if Young holds a clipboard all season long is he "a flop and a waste of a" 1st round pick? Evaluating a player after just one season is like judging a stock on a week's worth of data, you can easily lose doing that. Rick Mirer was OROTY his first year, but ended up being a bust.

What if Bush only rushes for 900 yards, but he catches 900 yards worth of passes and scores 15-20 TD's on the ground, through the air, and returning punts all combined? Is that a failure for a him this first season? What if his very presence causes teams to free up coverage on Moulds and AJ and they have big production? You cannot really measure Bush's impact in that area. Perhaps the best area to gauge his total impact is to see where the team falls in terms of total scoring (minus defensive but not special teams scores) compared to last year. After all, it seems as arbitrary as the numbers you threw up there.

We havent drafted him yet

Frak The Jags said:

ESPN Draft Special is doing a "Two-a-Day" on the Texans.

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I need more info on this........ need to go warm up the DVD-R.



LT had 1300 yards rushing, 350 recieving, 10TDs. I think that is a good place to start.

But...... we need to bump ole DD's trade value, so he's going to get the rock a little more often. I'm expecting DD to break of 1600 yards on the ground, and 200 recieving 14 TDs........ or something like that.

Reggie's going to go for 1000 yards, 500/600 recieving. 9 maybe 10 touchdowns. I don't really care what his numbers are going to be.... but if he gets hurt..... taken out of the game, or has to miss just one game......... ooooooooooohhhhhhhhhhhhweeeeeeeeeeee......... I's gone be some kinda mad.

David....... He's going to have a good year, I don't doubt that. I'm looking at High 3K passing....... AJ, Moulds, Mathis, Walther, Cook, DD, Reggie... I don't care about his INTs..... it's never been a problem before, I don't expect that to change. But if he takes a sack waiting for someone to get open I swear.... I'm gonna cry.

I need more info on this........ need to go warm up the DVD-R.

Click to expand...

The Draft Special is on ESPN Right Now.

I hope Kubiak doesn't run him into the ground until he's injured like Gruden did to Cadillac. Carr will be fine, despite the "gun shyness" he developed, I think last season the game "slowed down" for him.

Frak The Jags said:

The Draft Special is on ESPN Right Now.

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What???

don't they know we're at work!@!!!!!

Dag freaking nabbit......

I didn't know I had to take the day before the draft off.........


son of a ....... wait a minute

just the draft special, or the TeXans two-a-days??

Frank_The_Tank said:

the next Barry Sanders but better ( oh by the way Barry had a rookie season with 1470 yards 280 carries and 14 TD’s). Given Reggie is the first pick selection, his expected 60 million dollar contract, as a fan I believe Reggie Bush should have 220 to 240 carries and 1400 to 1600 yards with at least 14 TD’s on the ground. This is a feasible expectation if he is the number one pick, and if you people think he is the greatest of all time. Anything less then these numbers and Reggie Bush is a flop and a waste of the number one pick!

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More yards on less carries than Barry Sanders or he is a flop.


Cre-di-bi-li-ty, hey, hey, hey, good bye. Na, na, na, na, hey, hey, hey, good bye.

thunderkyss said:

What???

don't they know we're at work!@!!!!!

Dag freaking nabbit......

I didn't know I had to take the day before the draft off.........


son of a ....... wait a minute

just the draft special, or the TeXans two-a-days??

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THe Texans Two-a-Day is ON the Draft Special. Don't worry though, they are replaying the special tonight at 7 or 8.

The Two-a-Day is next!

Frak The Jags said:

THe Texans Two-a-Day is ON the Draft Special. Don't worry though, they are replaying the special tonight at 7 or 8.

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cool, 7 or 8 gotcha.

No Reggie and Carr have to be better than good, if Charley say's they are going to have an impact this year, and we are paying those two M.F.'s 50% of the payroll, then those two better be pro-bowl bound next year. The problem is you people are to passive. I dont believe owners pay the huge salary to guys they feel wont come in and make the progression. Every Bush-homer on this message board says he is the next Barry, if that is the case then the guy better produce Barry numbers. Hey No excuses! No twisting the mindset once we sign the guy. No margin for error with Bush, if we wanted to bring in a guy and groom him for a year then we should have taken Young. You all say Bush is the guy, then he better produce huge numbers come year one. No Excuses! Barry didn't have a QB or a O-line, neither will Reggie, now is he going to be a flop, or is he the man. As far as Carr, his numbers are non negotiable in my eyes.

Frank_The_Tank said:

.........those two M.F.'s 50%

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Jeez dude........... calm down. Trust me, I'm upset too..... but this isn't helping.

Even if both Carr & Bush flop, get hurt, whatever..... it won't change anything.

whether we win 2 games or 19......... don't matter.......

Tell you what, I'll be at the draft party tomorrow, meet me there, and we'll go crack som Bush lover's heads.... that'll make you feel better.

Won't change nuth'n.....

might go to jail....

but if it'll make you feel better, I'm there for you.

Edit Scratch the cracking heads thing, I'll buy you a beer or two, as long as it's Bud.

TheOgre said:

So if Young holds a clipboard all season long is he "a flop and a waste of a" 1st round pick? Evaluating a player after just one season is like judging a stock on a week's worth of data, you can easily lose doing that. Rick Mirer was OROTY his first year, but ended up being a bust.

What if Bush only rushes for 900 yards, but he catches 900 yards worth of passes and scores 15-20 TD's on the ground, through the air, and returning punts all combined? Is that a failure for a him this first season? What if his very presence causes teams to free up coverage on Moulds and AJ and they have big production? You cannot really measure Bush's impact in that area. Perhaps the best area to gauge his total impact is to see where the team falls in terms of total scoring (minus defensive but not special teams scores) compared to last year. After all, it seems as arbitrary as the numbers you threw up there.

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#1 Everyone expect Young to hold the clipboard and learn.
#2 The reason we are chosing Bush is because he is suppose to make a impact this year.
#3 No 900 yards will not cut it, 1400-1600 no less. He is Barry Sanders, prove it. Recieving yards are a fathom of your imagination and will never happen. He will not return Kicks or Punts so throw that one out, oh and he was never very good at returns in college so scrath that one anyways.
#4 Every player in the league is measured by statistics, he can and will be measured by his numbers, to say he will not is the most stupid thing i have ever heard.
# Arbitrary numbers, WTF, dude you have issues over how bad you are on the Bush C&B's

Frank_The_Tank said:

Every Bush-homer on this message board says he is the next Barry, if that is the case then the guy better produce Barry numbers. Hey No excuses! No twisting the mindset once we sign the guy. No margin for error with Bush, if we wanted to bring in a guy and groom him for a year then we should have taken Young. You all say Bush is the guy, then he better produce huge numbers come year one. No Excuses! Barry didn't have a QB or a O-line, neither will Reggie, now is he going to be a flop, or is he the man. As far as Carr, his numbers are non negotiable in my eyes.

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In defense of the Bush-homers......

Back in the day, your schedule was built based on your previous season...... the worse teams get the easiest schedule, and it get's progressively harder.

Not the case anymore..... hence a team like Dallas had a fairly tough schedule even though they were below .500 the year before, and the Colts gets a cakewalk season, even though they'd been to the playoffs in consecutive years.


in 2006, we have the eight hardest schedule, out of 31 teams.

I'm not upset, I am just laying out there, if people sit here every day and kiss Reggie Bush's butt, then it is time to start looking at the guy for what he is. If he is the next Barry then we are indeed lucky to get the guy, but If management says he is going to make this huge impact, the each and every fan better expect to see a 1500 yrd performance next year. If that is not realistic, then trade the pick, and stick with Domanick Davis. We know he can produce a thousand yards, and Bush-Homers ragg his butt all over the message board. Well now that the time has come it is time to put up or shut up.

TheOgre said:

So if Young holds a clipboard all season long is he "a flop and a waste of a" 1st round pick? Evaluating a player after just one season is like judging a stock on a week's worth of data, you can easily lose doing that. Rick Mirer was OROTY his first year, but ended up being a bust.

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Exactly! Most NFL people say a player will make a big jump from year one to year two. Since we already have DD, I'm not sure what to expect from Bush. What I do know is he gives us someone who is a threat to go all the way every time he touches the ball and that's what our offense needs. Let's wait and see how Kubes uses him before we get our expectations too high.

thunderkyss said:

In defense of the Bush-homers......

Back in the day, your schedule was built based on your previous season...... the worse teams get the easiest schedule, and it get's progressively harder.

Not the case anymore..... hence a team like Dallas had a fairly tough schedule even though they were below .500 the year before, and the Colts gets a cakewalk season, even though they'd been to the playoffs in consecutive years.


in 2006, we have the eight hardest schedule, out of 31 teams.

Click to expand...

funny thing about that is, that with the parity in the NFL, at the start of the season, many schedules may APPEAR hard, but at years end you could look back and you could have easily had a cake schedule

dwilt72 said:

Exactly! Most NFL people say a player will make a big jump from year one to year two. Since we already have DD, I'm not sure what to expect from Bush. What I do know is he gives us someone who is a threat to go all the way every time he touches the ball and that's what our offense needs. Let's wait and see how Kubes uses him before we get our expectations too high.

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F-That! I dont care how Kubiak decides to use him. People in here say Bush can run between the tackles, Bush is the fastest man in the Draft, Bush repped 25 with a 40 inch everticle, Bush runs 4.2 and shakes everyone who tries to tackle him. O.K. He is a running back first, reciever second. If I thought the Texans needed another reciever then we should take Santonio Holmes, he did run a 4.2 and he is a much better reciever. People say Bush is so much better than Davis at running back, then next year I should expect to se 1500 yrds 14 TD's and a Texan representative in the Pro-Bowl at the running back position.

Expectations are like straws, drink from em, chew em for a while and throw them away...lol

dwilt72 said:

Exactly! Most NFL people say a player will make a big jump from year one to year two. Since we already have DD, I'm not sure what to expect from Bush. What I do know is he gives us someone who is a threat to go all the way every time he touches the ball and that's what our offense needs. Let's wait and see how Kubes uses him before we get our expectations too high.

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I've never understood this. A.J. is a threat to score every time he touches the ball. Moulds....... he's a threat to score, every time he touches the ball. DD, et him inside the 40, and he's a threat to score. Mathis..... if he catches it, watch out, that kid just might score........ how many threats do we really need??

I think it was Michael Smith, on one of the shows yesterday, comparing Leinart & Young...... he said with Leinart, you need playmakers around him to be successful........ Vince, you can get away with a lot less, because he makes things happen.

How many playmakers does Carr need?? and when does it start to get silly??

Peyton Manning. How many people does he need that can score from anywhere, anytime they touch the ball?? He made Reggie Wayne....... people will be all over Reggie's Jock, thinking he'll make their team better, but he won't do much without Manning.

BradK10 said:

funny thing about that is, that with the parity in the NFL, at the start of the season, many schedules may APPEAR hard, but at years end you could look back and you could have easily had a cake schedule

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That's when the draft schedule comes into play.

Frank_The_Tank said:

F-That! I dont care how Kubiak decides to use him. People in here say Bush can run between the tackles, Bush is the fastest man in the Draft, Bush repped 25 with a 40 inch everticle, Bush runs 4.2 and shakes everyone who tries to tackle him. O.K. He is a running back first, reciever second. If I thought the Texans needed another reciever then we should take Santonio Holmes, he did run a 4.2 and he is a much better reciever. People say Bush is so much better than Davis at running back, then next year I should expect to se 1500 yrds 14 TD's and a Texan representative in the Pro-Bowl at the running back position.

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I do find it funny that some folk are already crawfishing. I'd like to know how Reggie is going to make us better too...... what benefits are we going to see, since we passed on Vince, to take Reggie, since Reggie is going to make us better this year.

Are we going to get more TDs out of the rushing game?? DD got us 13 when our team was half decent. So I'd like to use that as a baseline. Any tDs out of our running game, over 13, we can credit to Reggie.... to me, we'll need to get at least 23 to make it worth passing on Vince.

Passing yards out of the backfield?? again, DD got us 588 yards when the team was clicking... I'd imagine we'd have to more than double that to get the value..... say 600 for DD, and 700 for Reggie.... otherwise, Reggie is just duplicating the yards DD would have got playing on a better team.

Rushing yards....... I'm thinking DD is good for 1600.... in Kubiaks system. Reggie's got to bring 900, so as a team, we'd need to see 2400, which should make us the best running team in the league.

Bush: 1000 yards rushing and returning, 600 yards receiving; 12 TDs
Carr: No Idea

TheOgre said:

So if Young holds a clipboard all season long is he "a flop and a waste of a" 1st round pick? Evaluating a player after just one season is like judging a stock on a week's worth of data, you can easily lose doing that. Rick Mirer was OROTY his first year, but ended up being a bust.

What if Bush only rushes for 900 yards, but he catches 900 yards worth of passes and scores 15-20 TD's on the ground, through the air, and returning punts all combined? Is that a failure for a him this first season? What if his very presence causes teams to free up coverage on Moulds and AJ and they have big production? You cannot really measure Bush's impact in that area. Perhaps the best area to gauge his total impact is to see where the team falls in terms of total scoring (minus defensive but not special teams scores) compared to last year. After all, it seems as arbitrary as the numbers you threw up there.

Click to expand...

QBs have longer careers than RBs and RBs have better success earlier in their careers than QBs, generally speaking. To some extent, comparing VY to RB their first year really may not be reasonable.

If Reggie Bush only gets 900 yards rushing, I think we will have paid too much for him because a #1 pick should provide more value than that as a RB. IMO rushing yards from a running back are more important than receiving yards. I know some people are going to tee off on me for this comment, but you get a running back to run with the football first, otherwise he should be a receiver. With Reggie, he is scouted to do both, which is what makes him so valuable. But, he needs to make the bulk of his yards on the run first so defenses will respect his running ability (which will be the overall running game) and then move to the pass.

Basically, his receiving skills are a bonus. Besides, if he can't run the football in the NFL or has trouble with it, then defenses will know it is a pass play when he is in the game, at least more times than not.

hollywood_texan said:

.......I know some people are going to tee off on me for this comment, but you get a running back to run with the football first, otherwise he should be a receiver.

Besides, if he can't run the football in the NFL or has trouble with it, then defenses will know it is a pass play when he is in the game, at least more times than not.

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Bingo........... call us old fashioned, but running backs run the ball, I like this idea.

What it boils down to is are we getting our money's worth out of Bush. I think if you are going to give that kid the money he is asking for then he sure as hell better tally 1500 and some chage plus 14 TD's on the ground, no not total yards, that is just on the ground stats. Bush is a running back, I could care less how many yards he caches the ball for thats why we have AJ and Moulds. QB's get paid the money because they lead the team(except in Carr's case), and they touch the ball every play. Bush is either going to be a 1500 yrd back every season, or he is a flop. People on the board brag about his YPC, that guy has 220-240 carries to make 1500, because the Texans are going to let Domanick get his touches. If Reggie Rushes for 1050 and Domanick rushes for 800, then Reggie is a flop. You people say Reggie can run circles around Domanick then he sure as hell better at least double Dom's rushing stats next year or he will catch so much hell from the fans. When its all said and done that kid has no idea what he is getting himself into. He wants the #1 pick, give it to him, bring his butt to H-Town and lets get it on. I wanna see the playoffs, I wana watch him play in the Pro-Bowl, but if it is not going to happen next year, trade that pick and let someone else fork over his 60 million.