Grid said:
No, people draft for talent at the top of the draft. The #1 pick is always based on talent, not need. I dont know how else to explain this. I figured everyone knew this.
So Alex Smith was better than Ronnie Brown(Who Belicheck called the best back in 15 year, and imo is better than Bush)? Teams take the best player available at one of their needs. If the Pats suddenly collapsed and had the #1 pick in 07 because they couldn't protect Brady they would be looking at OT Joe Thomas, not QB Brady Quinn, who will undoubtedly be rated higher.
Grid said:
Justice will go that high because there are people that need an elite LT and he is next on the list after Dbrick. DBrick has the potential to be great, but so do all of the guys mentioned. As for Winston..plenty of players come into the draft with question marks surrounding an injury.. many turn out just fine in the NFL, especially with an Olineman. We tend to overanalyze things the closer we get to the draft. And McNiel.. well..heck.. all of these guys should be regarded as RTs with the potential to be an LT. Look at Robert Gallery. He was a better prospect than Dbrick.
You were saying Justice would be available in the 2nd. Yes Winston has the potential to be great if he recovers, and he probably will. But it's also possible he never regains his lateral movement and continues to be dominated by speed rushers. McNiels stock has been sliding almost as much as Jon Scotts and both are considered to have little chance of being LTs. D'Brick, Justice and Winston are our only chances at an elite tackle prospect. Some people like Colledge, but I don't think he will ever be more than above average, and we would still have to trade up/down into the mid 2nd to get him.
Some tackles can play both ways, like Gallery, some are strickly RTs, Like Wade, and some are Strickly LTs, like D'Brick. They are very different in skill requirements.
Grid said:
Babin and Peek are both tweeners. They were drafted to be 3-4 OLBs. Babin came from a small school. Niether of these guys are locks at DE. Kalu is depth at best, unless he makes some huge breakthrough this offseason. And I never said you dont draft for need.. I said you dont draft for need at the top of the draft. yes you are very confused
Babin and Peek may be able to hold down the fort next season, but it would not be a bad idea for us to draft a REAL defensive end, to be safe.
Babin was very highly rated as a DE by most experts. He played at 280 in college and was strong enough to move inside to DT. I'm optimistic about his return to the D-line. Peek will probably be a situational pass rusher. Kalu was a starter for the Eagles until a rash of injurys, no reason he couldn't start on the worst defense in the league.
Grid said:
#1. Davis wont get limited to 15-20 carries unless we have a good running back to use with him. The offense that Kubiak is going to run requires that you have a strong running game. Davis cannot do that on his own. Morency looked fine when he was sharing carries with Wells, but Wells was the workhorse. Morency is not ready to become a key part of our offense.
#2. We were running the Denver scheme last season..at least with the running game, so dont expect a big change there. Whether we take Bush or not..we need to think about how we are going to make our running game work when we need to have a dual RB system.. and we only have 2 good RBs on the roster, one of which is prone to injury.
If they over use him like capers he will miss 5 games. If they limit his carrys to 15-20 per game he can contribute the whole season with ~300 carrys. Or they can run him into the ground averaging 21 carrys per game and he can get 230 carrys and miss 5 games. I do think we need another running back, but don't think it needs to be the #1 pick in the draft, or even a first day pick. Wells only got 90 carrys, to Morencys 46. A 2/3 split isn't that big. And Morencys YPC was higher than Wells(albiet skewed by his 1 long run).
Grid said:
Pitts is a tackle that might do alright at guard. Id prefer to see him at LT or RT, but we will see what happens. And I wouldnt mind seeing Wand actually get snaps at LT or RT.. our last staff did not give him a chance.
If Winston isnt available at #33.. we dont need to throw in the towel.. god.. why do people think that our Oline has no talent? Can no one see how much or old staff mucked things up? Yes..coaching can make the worst line in the NFL decent over night.. look at San Diego. Coaching makes ALL the difference.
With Wand, Pitts, Wade, and possibly Wiegert as potential Tackles.. no, we are NOT hurting for a starting LT.. we CAN function without one. However, we do need depth on the line, and traditonally.. depth and projects are taken in the 3rd round and later. Heck, MOST linemen are taken in the 3rd round or later.. starters too.
Pitts is supposedly already practicing at guard, and alot of people think he will be very good there. At LT he wasn't outstanding and was even embarrased by the ammount of help he got from the guard and TE. Starting Wand on the hope that the last staff was completely incompetent doesn't give me a warm fuzzy.
They do have talent, they just lack a starting LT.
The rest of the line is in good shape for the next year or 2. Lt-Pitts-Flanagan-McKinney-Wiegert. Release Wade (mumble)into a lions den(/mumble) he has been pretty aweful. Yes our old staff was terrible, everyone can see that. But there is only so much a good scheme can do with the available talent. A better coach won't chisel the lead off of Wades shoes or make Wiegert less injury prone. Much like San Diego, we need to add 2 or 3 new starters and fire the slackers.
I don't like anybody on our roster as a starting left tackle, and I think we have to draft D'brick or Winston to fill that hole. Pitts will most likely play guard, Wand has embarrased himself on several occasions by being thrown on his butt, and Wiegert is a RT if anything. We need a LT, the rest of the line needs depth.
Grid said:
Our needs as of this moment are CB/FS, MLB, RB, DE, OT and Interior Linemen.. not necessarily in that order. Of those positions..the ONLY ones that NEED to be addressed in the first and second round, are CB/FS and RB. Those are skill positions that need a high draft pick to get an immediate starter. RB is something that we could possibly get in a later round, and just hope that Morency and Davis can do the job without getting injured. Either way though, we need more depth at the position.
I agree we need starters at FS, Oustide Linebackers(Cowart should be solid at MLB for a season or 2), and LT. We could be in position to upgrade DE, CB #2, RB, OG. We know DD can do the job, and it's been beaten to death that the Denver scheme can make any rb look good. On a related note, we didn't run the same scheme as Denver. It was a bastardized version that didn't utilized the cut block and didn't have the right kind of linemen. The results were un inspiring. DD 4.2ypc, Morency 4.0(3.5), Wells 3.6. A real Alex Gibbs scheme will be a big improvement, especially with quicker linemen. I wish we hadn't released Hollings. Everyone liked to bash him, but in limited action he looked pretty good(when he managed to hold onto the ball). We do need more depth at the position as insurance, but I don't see a problem with the talent level.
Grid said:
If we trade down and take Williams.. then I would expect us to get either another first rounder this year, or a second rounder this year (with other stuff of course).. which would enable us to still address RB and CB/FS in the first two rounds.
If we stay at #1.. then we need to take the most talented player available.. in my mind that means either Reggie Bush, or Mario Williams. Prefferably Reggie Bush.. he is the more "elite talent" of the two. Taking Williams #1 overall would be fine with me, but it would put us in a tough spot when it comes to addressing our other needs. We may be forced to take an RB #2, and then get a project CB/FS in the 3rd. We would have to start Buchannan and Brown in the secondary again.
I'm in favor of a trade down targeting Hawk or D'Brick personally. Other than Cowart our linebackers look realy bad. With the extra ammo we get in a trade down we could trade up to insure the (well apparently only imo) all important LT. I would like to get J.Joseph in the second, andK.Simpson if he slips to the third. Love those SC DBs.
Taking Bush and Williams does put us in a tight spot, and it's why I favor a trade. We can fill our glaring needs or watch them get abused all season. Seems like an easy choice to me.
Grid said:
(BTW.. im stating my opinions here, im not trying to state my opinions as fact, even though it may sound that way.)
I'm just suffering from insomnia and looking to argue. I'm actually more or less resigned to the Bush pick.