Nighthawk said:
"So, Bush it is. Comparisons to Marshall Faulk, Barry Sanders, and Gale Sayers seem to be coming from everywhere. Bush is a special talent, but those are some of the greatest players of all-time. The Texans cannot practically think that Bush offers more than those players.
As an interesting exercise, look at how those players' teams fared in their first five years after the NFL draft. Those three players were the second, third, and fourth overall selection of the draft, meaning they came to equally un-talented teams:
Faulk: 32-48
Sanders: 40-40
Sayers: 29-38-3
These numbers are somewhat shocking and should make Texans' fans keep their expectations in check. During these five-year periods, these three great backs made a combined 12 Pro Bowls, so their production was clearly not the problem. The simple truth is that a running back is only so valuable.
Those running backs were replacing Roosevelt Potts, Garry James, and Jon Arnett respectively. Bush will be replacing Domanick Davis, who has averaged over 1000 yards a season in his three years. He also is similar in size and style to Bush, making Davis, one of the Texans' better players, completely extraneous next season. Is Bush going to be better than Davis? Certainly, but even if Bush is historically good, the improvement will only be worth so much."
This important data from Fox Sports article to be found here
http://msn.foxsports.com/nfl/story/5483606.
Let's hope we manage to trade down.
What does this prove? If you want to see how picking a QB vs. a RB with a top 5 pick impacts your team over the next 5 years (or until they leave the team, whichever comes first), here you go:
QBs taken in the top 5 picks since 1987 draft:
Alex Smith (2005, #1, SF: 4-12: 875 yards, 50.9% completions, 1 TD and 11 INTs in 9 games in 1 year with team)
Eli Manning (2004, #1, NYG: 6-10, 11-5: 2402.5 yards, 51.6% completions, 15.0 TDs and 13.0 INTs in 12.5 games in 2 years with team)
Philip Rivers (2004, #4, SD: 12-4, 9-7: 74.0 yards, 56.7% completions, 0.5 TDs and 0.5 INTs in 2.5 games in 2 years with team)
Carson Palmer (2003, #1, Cin: 8-8, 8-8, 11-5: 2244.3 yards, 64.6% completions, 16.6 TDs and 10.0 INTs in 10.0 games in 3 years with team)
David Carr (2002, #1, Hou: 4-12, 5-11, 7-9, 2-14: 2656.0 yards, 57.8% completions, 12.0 TDs and 13.3 INTs in 15.0 games in 4 years with team )
Joey Harrington (2002, #3, Det: 3-13, 5-11, 6-10, 5-11: 2560.5 yards, 54.7% completions, 15.0 TDs and 15.5 INTs in 14.8 games in 4 years with team)
Michael Vick (2001, #1, Atl: 7-9, 9-6-1, 5-11, 11-5, 8-8: 1806.2 yards, 54.1% completions, 10.2 TDs and 7.8 INTs in 11.6 games in 5 years with team)
Tim Couch (1999, #1, Cle: 2-14, 3-13, 7-9, 9-7, 5-11: 2226.2 yards, 59.8% completions, 12.8 TDs and 13.4 INTs in 12.4 games in 5 years with team)
Donovan McNabb (1999, #2, Phi: 5-11, 11-5, 11-5, 12-4, 12-4: 2610.2 yards, 57.0% comletions, 17.4 TDs and 9.8 INTs in 14.0 games in first 5 years with team)
Akili Smith (1999, #3, Cin: 2-14, 4-12, 6-10, 2-14: 553.0 yards, 46.6% completions, 1.3 TDs and 3.3 INTs in 5.3 games in 4 years with team)
Peyton Manning (1998, #1, Ind: 3-13, 13-3, 10-6, 6-10, 10-6: 4123.6 yards, 62.1% completions, 27.6 TDs and 20.0 INTs in 16.0 games in first 5 years with team)
Ryan Leaf (1998, #2, SD: 5-11, 8-8, 1-15: 1222.0 yards, 48.4% completions, 4.7 TDs and 12.0 INTs in 8.7 games in 3 years with team)
Steve McNair (1995, #3, Hou: 7-9, 8-8, 8-8, 8-8, 13-3: 1967.6 yards, 56.2% completions, 10.0 TDs, 7.2 INTs in 11.8 games in first 5 years with team)
Kerry Collins (1995, #5, Car: 7-9, 12-4, 7-9, 4-12: 2076.5 yards, 51.8% completions, 11.8 TDs and 13.5 INTs in 11.3 games in 4 years with team)
Heath Shuler (1994, #3, Was: 3-13, 6-10, 9-7: 801.0 yards, 47.7% completions, 4.3 TDs and 6.3 INTs in 6.3 games in 3 years with team)
Drew Bledsoe (1993, #1, NE: 5-11, 10-6, 6-10, 11-5, 10-6: 3669.6 yards, 56.0% completions, 21.6 TDs and 17.6 INTs in 15.2 games in first 5 years with team)
Rick Mirer (1993, #2, Sea: 6-10, 6-10, 8-8, 7-9: 2273.5 yards, 53.4% completions, 10.3 TDs and 14.0 INTs in 13.8 games in 4 years with team)
Jeff George (1990, #1, Ind: 7-9, 1-15, 9-7, 4-12: 2387.8 yards, 57.0% completions, 10.3 TDs and 11.5 INTs in 13.0 games in 4 years with team)
Troy Aikman (1989, #1, Dal: 1-15, 7-9, 11-5, 13-3, 12-4: 2725.4 yards, 62.0% completions, 13.8 TDs and 13.2 INTs in 13.6 games in first 5 years with team)
Vinny Testaverde (1987, #1, TB: 4-11, 5-11, 5-11, 6-10, 3-13: 2453.2 yards, 51.1% completions, 12.6 TDs and 19.2 INTs in 12.4 games in first 5 years with team)
RBs taken in the top 5 picks since 1987 draft:
Ronnie Brown (2005, #2, Mia: 9-7: 1139 total yards and 5 TDs in 15 games in 1 year with team)
Cedric Benson (2005, #4, Chi: 11-5: 275 total yards and 0 TDs in 9 games in 1 year with team)
Carnell Williams (2005, #5, TB: 11-5: 1259 total yards and 6 TDs in 14 games in 1 year with team)
LaDanian Tomlinson (2001, #5, SD: 5-11, 8-8, 4-12, 12-4, 9-7: 1950.6 total yards and 16.0 TDs in 15.8 games per season in 5 years with team)
Jamal Lewis (2000, #5, Bal: 12-4, 10-6, 7-9, 10-6, 9-7: 1705.5 total yards and 8.5 TDs in 15.0 games per season in first 5 years with team)
Edgerrin James (1999, #4, Ind: 13-3, 10-6, 6-10, 10-6, 12-4: 1638.2 total yards and 10.4 TDs in 13.3 games per season in first 5 years with team)
Ricky Williams (1999, #5, NO: 3-13, 10-6, 7-9: 1407.0 total yards and 8.8 TDs in 13.5 games per season in 3 years with team)
Curtis Enis (1998, #5, Chi: 4-12, 6-10, 5-11: 641.7 total yards and 2 TDs in 11.3 games per season in 3 years with team)
Ki-Jana Carter (1995, #1, Cin: 7-9, 8-8, 7-9, 3-13: 280.5 total yards and 4.3 TDs in 8.8 games per season in 4 years with team)
Marshall Faulk (1994, #2, Ind: 8-8, 9-7, 9-7, 3-13, 3-13: 1624.8 total yards and 10.2 TDs in 15.4 games per season in 5 years with team)
Garrison Hearst (1993, #3, Pho/Ari: 7-9, 8-8, 4-12: 604.3 total yards and 1.3 TDs in 10.3 games per season in 3 years with team)
Blair Thomas (1990, #2, NYJ: 6-10, 8-8, 4-12, 8-8: 620.5 total yards and 1.8 TDs in 12.8 games per season in 4 years with team)
Barry Sanders (1989, #3, Det: 7-9, 6-10, 12-4, 5-11, 10-6: 1657.6 total yards and 13.6 TDs in 14.6 games per season in first 5 years with team)
Alonzo Highsmith (1987, #3, Hou: 9-6, 10-6, 9-7: 496.7 total yards and 3.3 TDs in 13.3 games per season in 3 years with team)
Brent Fullwood (1987, #4, GB: 5-9-1, 4-12, 10-6: 643.7 total yards and 3 TDs in 13.3 games per season in 3 years with team)
20 QBs total record (78 total seasons, 3.9 seasons per player): 542-704-1 (.435)
15 RBs total record (51 total seasons, 3.4 seasons per player): 390-421-1 (.481)