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Some Interesting Speculation

DenverBorn

Waterboy
http://www.gbnreport.com/

The draft starts here, Part I… With the signing of free agent QB Drew Brees yesterday, New Orleans, which has the second pick overall this year, has a whole new set of draft options. New Orleans had been expected to use the pick to select Southern Cal QB Matt Leinart. In fact, the Saints still won’t rule out taking Leinart at that spot, however, given their myriad of needs at other positions taking the former Trojan QB, even with Brees somewhat questionable health status after undergoing off-season shoulder surgery would appear to be a luxury the Saints really can’t afford. As such look for the Saints to use the pick on either North Carolina State DE Mario Williams or perhaps Virginia OT D’Brickashaw Ferguson. The Saints may also very well try and drop down a few spots, although we suspect that the player they really want is NC State’s Williams so they won’t want to move all that far. One thing the Saints may try to do is flip the 2-3 picks with Tennessee or the 2-4 picks with the Jets. Both Tennessee and the Jets are both thought to be intrigued by USC’s Leinart and might be enticed into something of a bidding war for the right to move up to the second pick. Indeed, figure that the Saints musings about still selecting a QB with the #2 pick even with Brees under contract, may be just some of that good ol’ NFL pre-draft smoke. Tennessee, for example, would be far less inclined to move up a spot if they were pretty certain that Leinart was going to slip to them anyway. The Saints, though, would have to be careful about making that deal with the Jets as Tennessee might scoop them and grab Williams for themselves if Leinart wasn’t available.
The draft starts here; Part Deux… The Saints acquisition of Brees may also have put an end to any realistic hopes that Houston had about trading out of the #1 pick. There have been some very quiet rumblings coming out of Houston that the Texans would really prefer to trade down a few spots and take NC State’s Mario Williams rather than use the pick on Southern Cal RB Reggie Bush. As intriguing a talent Bush is, RB is actually one position where the Texans are already reasonably well-fortified. However, with New Orleans now poised to take Williams themselves with the second pick, the Texans will no longer be able move down and still get the former Wolfpack star. Indeed, it says here – and again we are just speculating – that a time may come when the Texans actually seriously consider passing on Bush and taking Williams with the #1 pick outright.
 

Kaiser Toro

Native Mod
This is would be the scenario that makes sense for us and glad to hear that it is being talked about outside of this MB as well.
 

barzilla

Waterboy
That's interesting. If the club goes that route they may actually have a very impressive front seven overnight with Babin and Peek going back to the lineback core.
 

edo783

Hall of Fame
Mario or DBrick are the right thing to do, but from a PR standpoint it will be hard not to pick Bush.
 

chuckm

Veteran
I've heard a lot about Mario, but unfortunately haven't seen him play. Are there any highlight reels out there? Anyone have a link? thanks
 

Coach C.

Veteran
Mario would be awesome, and Weaver would move to one gap DT, meaning the end of Payne since it would save us around 700K to get rid of him anyway. That would give us a front seven of PeekWDE, Weaver 1gap, TJ/Robaire 2gap, Williams SDE. Greenwood WOLB, Wong/Evans/Rookie MLB, Orr SOLB. Man that is some pressure and off the edges and some penetration through the middle. All of those guys are solid against the run and we would have a group of chase down tacklers on the outside, plus could you imagine the right side with Williams and Orr coming after the QB his only recourse is to run to Peek's side or step up into Weaver or TJ damn that sounds like a pass rush to me.
 

Toxicology

Practice Squad
I have too many questions about Bush to support his selection. Pick up Mario at #1 or trade down to get him. He and weaver would be a needed "extreme makeover" of the defense.
 

bigTEXan8

Rookie
With the signing of Brees to NO and Culpepper to MIA, what I thought the Texans best trade scenario was (HOU with NYJ, swap 1st round picks and a 2nd this year from NYJ) is pretty much gone. NYJ have nothing to worry about now, they got Leinart. NO is probably going to pick up M. Williams (blast! [although I heard they might trade down]), TENN is getting VY, and then Leinart is going to get picked up by NYJ. Looks like the Texans are stuck with Bush, unless the FO gets some cahones, and they draft M. Williams, which is the most sensible pick-up to me.
 

Porky

Hall of Fame
This scenerio has about as much chance of happening as me appearing on the next American Idol singing Danny Boy. I really love how all the sudden we are "stuck" with Bush. I don't know whether to laugh or cry at such nonsense, but I know I will have a smile a mile wide when we select Reggie Bush with the first pick. Anything else is mere internet speculation, and it ain't happening folks. :ok:
 
This does make a little sense. New D-Cood along with a new HC that is offensive minded. If I was the HC, I'd fortify the D as much as possible as to not have to worry about it as much while I tinkered w/the offense.
 

MorKnolle

All Pro
chuckm said:
I've heard a lot about Mario, but unfortunately haven't seen him play. Are there any highlight reels out there? Anyone have a link? thanks
I'm not aware of any but I'm sure there are some, but he did have 14.5 sacks and something like 26 tackles for loss this year while being double teamed a lot and freeing up Manny Lawson as well. He had two games this year with 4 sacks (Southern Miss and Maryland), not the top competition but two games with four sacks in one season is impressive. Other than that, he is 6'7", 295 lbs., ran a top 40 time of 4.66 (Julius Peppers ran a 4.68 at his pro day), benched 35 reps on 225, and had a 40 inch vertical jump. He's bigger than Peppers by 12 lbs., was just as fast, and a lot stronger. I doubt he lasts to #4 now with the Saints getting a QB, unless they trade down with someone looking for a QB.
 

bigTEXan8

Rookie
Porky said:
This scenerio has about as much chance of happening as me appearing on the next American Idol singing Danny Boy. I really love how all the sudden we are "stuck" with Bush. I don't know whether to laugh or cry at such nonsense, but I know I will have a smile a mile wide when we select Reggie Bush with the first pick. Anything else is mere internet speculation, and it ain't happening folks. :ok:
Well, the reason I say "stuck" is because I think that the Texans already have a solid stable of RBs, especially if they resign Wells. I don't think Bush is a need, but more so a he's so good, you have to take him. It's just my opinion.
 

bigTEXan8

Rookie
Well, the reason I say "stuck" is because I think that the Texans already have a solid stable of RBs, especially if they resign Wells. I don't think Bush is a need, but more so a he's so good, you have to take him. It's just my opinion.
And not to say that Bush isn't a great player, or not going to be a great player, but I feel the Texans have more pressing needs than a versatile RB. I would take a DE to creat major chaos than Bush...JM:twocents:
 
bigTEXan8 said:
Well, the reason I say "stuck" is because I think that the Texans already have a solid stable of RBs, especially if they resign Wells. I don't think Bush is a need, but more so a he's so good, you have to take him. It's just my opinion.
I wouldn't call two backs a stable. So in a system that uses two backs on a regular basis you only have one backup. I would think you need another RB.
 

bigTEXan8

Rookie
dat_boy_yec said:
I wouldn't call two backs a stable. So in a system that uses two backs on a regular basis you only have one backup. I would think you need another RB.
I meant if Wells was resigned.
 

barzilla

Waterboy
It looks like the trade down scenario would drop to Oakland at number seven. It would be nice to stick Oakland in their desperation to get a QB, but I'm not sure what would be left to us at that point. I suppose if they gave us their second and third rounder it would be well worth it to fill some holes, but the gamble would be whether the collection of Reggie Bush, Mario Williams, Dbrick, or AJ Hawk would be available at that time. If we made that trade this is what I would see happening:

Oakland: Leinert
New Orleans: Williams
Tennessee: Young
NY Jets: Cutler
Green Bay: AJ Hawk or Dbrick
San Francisco: Reggie Bush

The only one there I'm not sure about is Cutler, if the Jets take Dbrick or Hawk with that pick we could end up getting shut out. Of course, we could trade out of the number seven pick and add another third rounder or so. I realize this scenario puts us without a marqee player but it would also give us Hawk, Dbrick, or Bush at best and two second rounders and four third rounders at worst (including the first rounder of whatever team wants Cutler).
 

Porky

Hall of Fame
bigTEXan8 said:
And not to say that Bush isn't a great player, or not going to be a great player, but I feel the Texans have more pressing needs than a versatile RB. I would take a DE to creat major chaos than Bush...JM:twocents:
We need someone who can put points on the board from anywhere on the field. We have one player now who can do that, but without a companion, teams can easily take him away, and we are left with a boring one dimensial offense. Bush will change that in dramtic fashion. It's not about what you need, it's about not passing on a game changing player. I love Mario too, but Bush will do more for this offense and team. He not only helps the offense, but the defense, the oline, QB, and other WR's, and Mario, while an impact player for sure, just won't have that kind of team wide impact. Passing on Bush would be a MAJOR mistake of epic proportions imo.
 

tulexan

Hall of Fame
With the contract that we just gave Weaver, I can't see us taking Mario at #1.

Casserly has also recently said that when upgrading a team's personnel, you fill holes through free agency and take the best available player at your pick. Weaver filled a major hole for us. He is good against the run (which we couldn't stop last year) and has potential to be good against the pass in the 4-3 system. Bush is clearly the BPA at #1 so we will pick him.
 

bigTEXan8

Rookie
Porky said:
We need someone who can put points on the board from anywhere on the field.
Where is I agree with you, at the same time, I disagree, because where it would be awesome to have Bush score from anywhere on the field, the Texans also have to be able to stop other teams from scoring anywhere from the field. D wins championships. JM:twocents:
 

nunusguy

Hall of Fame
exclude said:
I have seen Mario Williams play and there are hints of Richard Dent in his play, a quite ferocity.
There's more than hints, there's obvious mutual skills and abilities when comparing Reggie Bush to the likes of Sayers, B. Sanders, & Faulk.
If we had invested a #1 & #2 in D.Davis & Morency, it would be tougher to
justify the Reggie pick. But we've only got a 3 & 4 rounder in those guys.
And I don't think Williams would make as much of a incremental improvement in the defense as Bush would make in the offense.
 

cred

Noob
been a long time since I had posted, but I remember a while back about somethings along the line of... I wish we would have taken J. Peppers over D. Carr with the #1 pick a few years ago. Now if you look at it we have a second chance with the same oppertunity with the #1 pick. Granted, D. Carr is no R. Bush when it comes to excitment, but if I remember right D. Carr was the consenses #1 pick that year as well. I just see super mario as a more of a need pick than Bush, just because our pass rush was SO bad last year. I as well was a trade down kind of guy, but with NO signing Breeze, I see that as a bad situation for trading down now.

I also don't mind the trade down to the Raiders as well, If to pick up V. Davis or M. Huff as well. Huff, IMO is much needed improvement at say freesafety or even a cornerback due to his coverage skills and his tackling ability. At UT, and I am not much of a UT fan by the way, Huff did play every position in the D-fence backfield.

just my :twocents:
 

bigTEXan8

Rookie
cred said:
been a long time since I had posted, but I remember a while back about somethings along the line of... I wish we would have taken J. Peppers over D. Carr with the #1 pick a few years ago. Now if you look at it we have a second chance with the same oppertunity with the #1 pick. Granted, D. Carr is no R. Bush when it comes to excitment, but if I remember right D. Carr was the consenses #1 pick that year as well. I just see super mario as a more of a need pick than Bush, just because our pass rush was SO bad last year. I as well was a trade down kind of guy, but with NO signing Breeze, I see that as a bad situation for trading down now.

I also don't mind the trade down to the Raiders as well, If to pick up V. Davis or M. Huff as well. Huff, IMO is much needed improvement at say freesafety or even a cornerback due to his coverage skills and his tackling ability. At UT, and I am not much of a UT fan by the way, Huff did play every position in the D-fence backfield.

just my :twocents:
I made that comment a couple days ago, but I can't seem to find it. I totally concur with you. Williams is the best pick the Texans can make...hands down.
 

J-Storm

Waterboy
The Texans FO has a chance as said to not make the same mistake twice and take a DE like "Super Mario" (plenty of PR in that IMO) so we shall see if they have learnt from the initial 1st up draft back in '02...
 

Nighthawk

Rookie
bigTEXan8 said:
With the signing of Brees to NO and Culpepper to MIA, what I thought the Texans best trade scenario was (HOU with NYJ, swap 1st round picks and a 2nd this year from NYJ) is pretty much gone. NYJ have nothing to worry about now, they got Leinart. NO is probably going to pick up M. Williams (blast! [although I heard they might trade down]), TENN is getting VY, and then Leinart is going to get picked up by NYJ. Looks like the Texans are stuck with Bush, unless the FO gets some cahones, and they draft M. Williams, which is the most sensible pick-up to me.
MOST sensible is Texans take Leinart with #1. Keep or trade thereafter.
 

Nighthawk

Rookie
barzilla said:
It looks like the trade down scenario would drop to Oakland at number seven. It would be nice to stick Oakland in their desperation to get a QB, but I'm not sure what would be left to us at that point. I suppose if they gave us their second and third rounder it would be well worth it to fill some holes, but the gamble would be whether the collection of Reggie Bush, Mario Williams, Dbrick, or AJ Hawk would be available at that time. If we made that trade this is what I would see happening:

Oakland: Leinert
New Orleans: Williams
Tennessee: Young
NY Jets: Cutler
Green Bay: AJ Hawk or Dbrick
San Francisco: Reggie Bush

The only one there I'm not sure about is Cutler, if the Jets take Dbrick or Hawk with that pick we could end up getting shut out. Of course, we could trade out of the number seven pick and add another third rounder or so. I realize this scenario puts us without a marqee player but it would also give us Hawk, Dbrick, or Bush at best and two second rounders and four third rounders at worst (including the first rounder of whatever team wants Cutler).
DUH. You've got two players at 5. We get one of them or Bush at 7, yes? or vernon davis or whatever the freak TE/WR's name is. Or any number of other possibilities.

This draft is solid until 10 or 12, not that much difference in quality. The "ELITE" guys are gonna lose the hype-lift, and the not-quite-ELITE guys are going to turn out a little better.
 

jerek

Pro Hobbyist
Porky said:
This scenerio has about as much chance of happening as me appearing on the next American Idol singing Danny Boy. I really love how all the sudden we are "stuck" with Bush. I don't know whether to laugh or cry at such nonsense, but I know I will have a smile a mile wide when we select Reggie Bush with the first pick. Anything else is mere internet speculation, and it ain't happening folks. :ok:
So sure, are you? ... As much as I like Reggie, I think the possibility of a Mario pickup is a very real one. Sure, we just signed Weaver, but don't we already have D. Davis?
 

LongBignasty1

Waterboy
I would love any of these situations-

1. Super Mario
2. Reggie Bush
3. Vince-anity
4. Trade down with raider's (multiple pick's) and Michael Huff, or Vernon Davis
 

Scooter

Funky
what happened to d'brick? i know mario & davis were the phoenoms at indy (which automatically mandates flavor of the week), but isnt d'brick scheduled to go in the top 4-5 also? our biggest hole is still offensive line, and seeing us pass over bush for either d'brick or mario would make my draft day experience a great one ... let marketing decide what our fight song is, not how we draft.

i think "stuck" is a good term for our situation. the teams looking to trade up arent willing to do so for a rb when so many other studs with just as much upside in need positions are available. IF we were shopping the first pick, i promise it wasnt for reggie. there are a few that likely would've however trying to leapfrog N.O. for a qb. we're therefor in a situation where we have the option of drafting almost sure-fire guys in several positions, but are feeling the pressure from fans & media to pick the one that was annointed king 1/2 way through the season. reggie, even if he's better than barry sanders, wont be a big enough upgrade over DD to justify ignoring the rest of the team IMO. sure we can address that with the rest of the draft, but what sense does it make to fill holes last and draft the only solid position on the team first?

oh, and to "score from anywhere on the field", you need blockers ... just ask the undrafted 3rd stringer in pittsburgh. :BananaWav
 

TexanFan881

All Pro
Reggie Bush wouldn't improve our team as much as Mario Williams would, but I would rather take A.J. Hawk with the first pick because LB is such a glaring need.
 

Coach C.

Veteran
Bush and Mario are the only real choices worthy of our number 1 pick. Mind you the best choice would be a Leinhart if it was not the Texans picking, so since it is we will take Mario or Bush. I want it to be Mario, because I think he would impact the team more than Bush. i know Bush causes alot of mismatches, but Bush does not cause a defense to change, defenses in the NFL go against RBs that can take it to the house pretty often with Bush you just have to know to stay home to negate the cutback. In the slot or as a WR they play him like any othe WR with speed, Reggie is not a better or more dynamic receiver than the ones in this league.

Mario I am not about to say he is the end all to end all either. He needs to get on his horse. His amazing athleticsm is devalued by the fact that his motor is suspect. The kid will work hard, but not all the time. One thing is this as a leader Mario preached toughness on the field and that is what he would bring to the team. Imagine Mario and D-rob in someones face telling them to get it together. That is two tough hard nose guys who will get after it.

To me both are great options and we should be lucky to have better options than the Niners did last year, but overall team impact has to be a priority. Plus when you look at those Denver teams that won the superbowl they were not the best defenses but they were strong, as a matter of fact most people dont remember the last time a foolishly strong offense won the championship. Defense wins championships, and I want the hardware here in Houston.
 

barzilla

Waterboy
Hmmmmm, foolishly strong offense seems a lot like the St. Louis Rams, but your point is well taken. I think it will depend on which player gets the highest grade from them. If Bush impresses at the USC pro day then he will have a leg up, but if there are strength issues then Mario might leapfrog him. Either have to be judged on their upside and durability. If Bush projects as the next Barry Sanders then you'd be silly not to take him. If Mario projects as the next Reggie White you'd be foolish not to take him. If both are true then flip a coin and be happy with what you got.

I think the big key with these kinds of decisions is to do your studying, make the pick, and don't look back. It's a lot like buying a new TV or computer. Once you buy it you shouldn't look at advertisements again until it's time to buy a new one. Don't look at what the other guy is doing and wring your hands. Make the best pick you can and move on.
 

Coach C.

Veteran
barzilla I agree, but one thing about St. Louis and I do agree they did have a foolishly strong offense, but their defense was one of the better ones that year. I would say in the top 10.
 

MorKnolle

All Pro
Another thing on Mario, I read that he played RB in high school as well, can you imagine a 6'7" RB charging down on you? He said some defenders just stopped and braced themselves for impact rather than trying to hit him. Not that it really means anything to his draft status now, but I thought that was interesting and that would be a humorous sight to see a guy that big running the ball. Either way, it also sounds like he's a smart guy and a real student of the game, which is an added bonus to his amazing physical attributes and football skills. 14.5 sacks and 26 tackles for loss this year while facing double teams probably 65-70% of the time in addition to his amazing combine workout, I would really like to see him in a Texans uniform next year, although it definitely sounds like it's going to be Bush, which I will still be enthused to see, just not as much so.
 

outofhnd

Rookie
If Leinhart is at #3 Tennessee is taking him over VY... Sorry but the offensive coordinator at Tennessee was the offensive COordinator at USC. He wont pass on Leinhart a guy that can come in and basically already know the playbook.

Vince Young is a Raider.
 
outofhnd said:
If Leinhart is at #3 Tennessee is taking him over VY...

Alright, that's true. Say the jets, or any team for that matter, swap picks with NO because they're intent on Leinart. Does Tenn. value leinart enough to make an attempt at our #1?
 

DoCt3rJ

Waterboy
ok..... Tennesse's offensive coordinator is Norm Chow, I really dont think their gonna pass on Leinhart. As far as the Raiders go... you think Al Davis will pass up on a name like Vince Young? Nay.
 

tulexan

Hall of Fame
Jets aren't going to trade up. They are about to get Patrick Ramsey.

And if some team did swap positions with the Saints and draft Leinart, the Titans would draft Jay Cutler because they really like him and coached him during the Senior Bowl.
 

outofhnd

Rookie
Who says the Jets are definately going QB in the 1st? Are you sure?

They also have a hole at RB where Curtis Martin is on his last legs with no real succsessor...., Their Pass rush specialist wants out, Why not Bush? He even was treated to a Jets Game. Remember Chad was not a 1st rounder, So they could try and go to the well and get a QB later.... Maybe a Reggie McNeil... Assume nothing until The comissioner announces it.
 

tulexan

Hall of Fame
The Jets won't trade up because they had just as many holes as we did before all of their cuts. Now they have several holes on the OL, a hole at DE, and more I can't even remember. They also signed Derrick Blaylock to a reasonably large contract last season and if they are desperate to get a running back they can get a guy like Brian Calhoun, Joseph Addai, or Maurice Drew in the 2nd round. Or they could take LenDale White or DeAngelo Williams at 4.
 

Grid

All Pro
With Gaffney gone.. im even more inclined now to trade down and get a couple more picks.

Plus.. even if we trade down to #5 or so.. we can take Williams or Bush if they slide..and if they dont, we can take Vernon Davis.

win/win/win situation.
 

jerek

Pro Hobbyist
Grid said:
With Gaffney gone.. im even more inclined now to trade down and get a couple more picks.

Plus.. even if we trade down to #5 or so.. we can take Williams or Bush if they slide..and if they dont, we can take Vernon Davis.

win/win/win situation.
I honestly believe neither Bush nor Williams would slide to the #5. NO and NY appear to have their QBs already, which make the case for Mario and Reggie going very early that much stronger.
 

barzilla

Waterboy
Okay, let's say the Jets are interested in Bush, but don't want to surrender additional picks for this year's draft. We could still do the trade down to number four for Abraham and a second rounder in next year's draft if we aren't sold on Bush being number one. Let's consider the reality.

1. We know that the Titans will draft a QB, so we will have a choice of Dbrick, Mario Williams (unlikely with two DEs in the fold), or AJ Hawk.

2. The Jets get rid of a headache and don't surrender any 2006 picks.

Now, of course I only advocate this if we don't like Bush that much. Essentially, you come out of the draft with a much stronger defense (if you take Williams or Hawk at 4). Could you imagine a completed front four with Abraham and Weaver at the ends and a three tackle rotation inside? You couple that with Wong and Greenwood flanking Hawk. That would be a pretty impressive front seven.

Heck, maybe you can talk the Jets into giving us their first rounder next year since we are essentially bailing them out.
 

tulexan

Hall of Fame
Abraham wants $18 million in guaranteed money. I don't think we are going to give him that considering we just gave Weaver $13 million guaranteed.
 
Coach C. said:
Mario would be awesome, and Weaver would move to one gap DT, meaning the end of Payne since it would save us around 700K to get rid of him anyway. That would give us a front seven of PeekWDE, Weaver 1gap, TJ/Robaire 2gap, Williams SDE. Greenwood WOLB, Wong/Evans/Rookie MLB, Orr SOLB. Man that is some pressure and off the edges and some penetration through the middle. All of those guys are solid against the run and we would have a group of chase down tacklers on the outside, plus could you imagine the right side with Williams and Orr coming after the QB his only recourse is to run to Peek's side or step up into Weaver or TJ damn that sounds like a pass rush to me.
I think I got goose-bumbs while reading this. Boy, that would be great. The only whole in that ordeal is MLB if Wong is not healthy, but we could pick up someone like McIntosh in in the 4th and solve that. But, boy, with that 3 deep DT rotation we would be very tough against the rush, and we could even put Babin in for Peek in running situations, making us even tougher. I cant wait till the draft.

PS- someone e-mail this to the Texans FO!!
 

MorKnolle

All Pro
Grid said:
With Gaffney gone.. im even more inclined now to trade down and get a couple more picks.

Plus.. even if we trade down to #5 or so.. we can take Williams or Bush if they slide..and if they dont, we can take Vernon Davis.

win/win/win situation.
I wouldn't count on Mario or Bush being there at #5. If the Saints stay at #2, they will almost for sure take whichever is left between these two players, and even if Leinart goes #1 to whatever team is trading for him, I don't see the remaining player between Bush/Mario lasting thru another two picks to get to us at #5. As much as I'd like to trade and get more picks, I think if we want either Bush or Mario we need to just take them at #1.

run-david-run said:
I think I got goose-bumbs while reading this. Boy, that would be great. The only whole in that ordeal is MLB if Wong is not healthy, but we could pick up someone like McIntosh in in the 4th and solve that. But, boy, with that 3 deep DT rotation we would be very tough against the rush, and we could even put Babin in for Peek in running situations, making us even tougher. I cant wait till the draft.

PS- someone e-mail this to the Texans FO!!
Agreed, does anyone have Casserly's phone number so we can give him a ring and propse this to him, or better yet call up Kubiak and Richard Smith since they're hopefully the ones calling the shots
 
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