Haams said:
I would like to know if its been done before, but I don't think it's unrealistic. Obviously Bush and VY are highly valued commodities, we should be able to fairly easily move into the #4 with the Jets or something along those lines. After that we are in the position of not having to be too picky about what position we take - we need help everywhere. From that #4 spot I would think we could trade again with a team who covets a certain position. If everything worked according to plan I think we could have at least three starters, or Reggie.
I'm not aware of a team making a double trade down like that, but I haven't checked into it thoroughly either so it might have happened. I don't think the Texans would look to trade below #5. As Casserly has said there is a group of elite players at the top of this draft and they want to make sure they get one of them still. Reggie Bush, Mario Williams, D'Brickashaw Ferguson, A.J. Hawk, Michael Huff, and Vernon Davis could all be considered elite prospects at their position that could definitely provide an upgrade for our team, Vince Young, Matt Leinart, and/or Jay Cutler could be added as a possible upgrade, so the Texans want to make sure they stay high enough to get one of them.
That said, I think since we do have the #1 and are in a position to be able to take any one of them, I think certain guys would not be considered a high enough value to be our top guy in the draft, whether it be because they are not a super elite prospect at their position or simply their position itself sn't valued high enough. I think this knocks Vernon Davis (great TE, but TE is not a valuable enough position), A.J. Hawk (not sure about his status of being truly elite, and LB isn't a valuable enough position), Michael Huff (not really an elite enough prospect and not sure on which position he is, but CB and definitely FS aren't valuable enough), and the QBs (Kubes and the FO sound like they are confident enough in David Carr that I don't see them taking a QB this high in the draft, and with them signing Rosenfels I don't see them drafting a QB later with the intention of them being our #2. I don't consider Rosenfels a very good #2 QB, but I think that's what the team is thinking by signing him). That leaves Reggie Bush, Mario Williams, and D'Brickashaw Ferguson. Reggie Bush is a unique athlete and is definitely head and shoulders above the other RB prospects, RB is not a huge need for us but Bush is supposed to be good enough that we (along with any other team in the league) see him as the #1 overall guy and are looking at taking him. Mario Williams is a freak of an athlete and is definitely head and shoulders above the other DE prospects in this draft, and up until signing Weaver DE was definitely a need of ours, I think Mario is good enough to still consider him with our top pick but the chances of them doing that is slimming. D'Brickashaw is the best LT prospect, but I don't see him being all that much better of an overall OT prospect compared to a couple other guys in this draft, and while OL is a need of ours I don't think they value him high enough to target him with their top pick.
I see that basically leaving just Reggie Bush for consideration at the #1 pick. I think they view Mario high enough that they'd take a decent trade to move down as long as they ensure getting him, but his value is rising and with the Saints losing Darren Howard and likely signing Drew Brees, I think they will likely take Mario at #2 if they don't trade down, so that doesn't leave us any room to trade down and have any certainty of getting Mario. I think they value D'Brick high enough that they'd take a pretty hefty trade to move down as long as they are assured of getting him. However, they'd likely have to stay in the top 4 to ensure Mario or D'Brick since so many of those top teams are securing QBs, and I don't see the Saints, Titans, or Jets making much of an offer, definitely not big enough to get them to trade down and target D'Brick. I think the other guys in the aforementioned group are good enough that they'd be willing to trade down ensuring they get one of them if they're offered that "godfather deal", meaning a future 1st and probably two 2nds and maybe another pick or player in there, and I don't see anyone giving up that kind of trade.
I have long been an advocate of trading down, but at this point with our free agent signings, changes in prospect values, and key signings of other teams at the top of the draft, I really don't see that happening. I think a big-time trade offer (i.e. a future 1st, one 2nd, a 3rd, and maybe another pick or player) could entice the Texans to move down to #4 or maybe #5 to get Mario or D'Brick, but as I said I don't see that kind of trade being offered by any of those teams.
