V
Viiiiilma51
Guest
Hi Guys,
New York Jets fan and self proclaimed Fantasy Football Guru. I just traded for Andre Johnson in my largest money league. Granted he'll only be a spot starter for me, but the following write up I came up with after doing some research last night sums up why I decided to pull the trigger on the trade despite the extrememly slow start the Texans' offense has gotten off to. Please read and then discuss both Andre Johnson's fantasy football outlook and possibly a few things I could learn about the Texans, your offense, your new coordinator, etc, etc. that I would never be able to know myself without being a Texans' homer. Enjoy the read and thanks in advance:
The Texans offense has played two really tough defenses thus far (Buffalo and Pittsburgh). However, his stats have been worse then you could possibly like to see regardless of the opponent.
The guy has 7 catches in two games. 7 catches for 38 yards! That is not even 5.5 yards per catch. And, while he has been targeted 14 times in those two games (not a very high amount) he only has caught 50% of his targets.
With that being said ... his value is extremely low right now. This would be as good of a time as any to pounce for this reason:
The numbers above can be improved upon. The Houston Texans have ran the 4th fewest plays from scrimmage this season (108 plays). In comparison, the Cincinatti Bengals have run the most plays from scrimmage this season (147). The 32 team league average is 124 plays per game. Now, Andre Johnson has been targeted 14 times in 108 plays from scrimmage. That means that he is targeted on 13% of Houston's plays. You would hope to get the ball more to a budding star if you were the Texans but hey, they did fire their Offensive Coordinator.
Now, since the Texans won't be playing the Steelers or the Bills in the coming weeks ... you have to expect that their plays per game from scrimmage will shoot up to at least the league average of 124 plays. Since Johnson has been targeted on 13% of their plays from scrimmage, this increase in total plays should increase his targets by 2.5 targets per game. Lets just round that up to 3 targets to make it easy. Now, he has averaged 7 targets per game in the past two games. This would up his amount of targets to 10 targets per game. He also has only caught 50% of his targets. However, this was against 2 of the best defenses the league has to offer with Pittsburgh being the best of them all. You have to expect this number to increase also versus the less then stellar defenses that the Texans have coming up in the coming weeks (@Cin, Ten, @Sea, Ind, Cle). So lets say now he is catching more like 70% of his targets as opposed to 50% of them. You are now looking at a 7 catch game.
All of the reasoning and statistics above have to be taken into consideration. Also, the new Offensive Coordinator of the Texans was promoted from within house (offensive line coach). They are going to be running the same system more or less with just a new face (and new mind) making the play calls. Could under-utilization of the Texans main weapons, Andre Johnson and Domanick Davis have lead to the firing of the former offensive coordinator? I know it couldn't have helped. You have one of the best young talents in the NFL at wideout, a big, young, physical WR with blazing speed and you only target him on 13% of your offensive plays? There was much more behind the firing of the old offensive coordinator then just two poor performances. If every offensive coordinator that failed to produce gaudy offensive numbers and move the football vs. the Buffalo Bills and Pittsburgh Steelers lost their jobs ... there would be a carousel of new coaches every few weeks in the NFL.
While you can't expect anything more then second-tier, WR #2 numbers from AJ this season ... you can definitely expect a lot more from him then what you have seen the past two weeks. If you are deep enough at WR to absorb his bye week this week, and another owner in your league really has that bad of a taste in their mouths about him and want him off of their roster ... he could be a steady 7 catch, 70-90 yard per week WR who will sprinkle in a TD for you once every few weeks.
Buy low and sell high. It doesn't get much lower then AJ is right now. Whether you own him or not ... please discuss what I have just posted and what you think the out look for AJ is and could be moving forward.
TIA.
New York Jets fan and self proclaimed Fantasy Football Guru. I just traded for Andre Johnson in my largest money league. Granted he'll only be a spot starter for me, but the following write up I came up with after doing some research last night sums up why I decided to pull the trigger on the trade despite the extrememly slow start the Texans' offense has gotten off to. Please read and then discuss both Andre Johnson's fantasy football outlook and possibly a few things I could learn about the Texans, your offense, your new coordinator, etc, etc. that I would never be able to know myself without being a Texans' homer. Enjoy the read and thanks in advance:
The Texans offense has played two really tough defenses thus far (Buffalo and Pittsburgh). However, his stats have been worse then you could possibly like to see regardless of the opponent.
The guy has 7 catches in two games. 7 catches for 38 yards! That is not even 5.5 yards per catch. And, while he has been targeted 14 times in those two games (not a very high amount) he only has caught 50% of his targets.
With that being said ... his value is extremely low right now. This would be as good of a time as any to pounce for this reason:
The numbers above can be improved upon. The Houston Texans have ran the 4th fewest plays from scrimmage this season (108 plays). In comparison, the Cincinatti Bengals have run the most plays from scrimmage this season (147). The 32 team league average is 124 plays per game. Now, Andre Johnson has been targeted 14 times in 108 plays from scrimmage. That means that he is targeted on 13% of Houston's plays. You would hope to get the ball more to a budding star if you were the Texans but hey, they did fire their Offensive Coordinator.
Now, since the Texans won't be playing the Steelers or the Bills in the coming weeks ... you have to expect that their plays per game from scrimmage will shoot up to at least the league average of 124 plays. Since Johnson has been targeted on 13% of their plays from scrimmage, this increase in total plays should increase his targets by 2.5 targets per game. Lets just round that up to 3 targets to make it easy. Now, he has averaged 7 targets per game in the past two games. This would up his amount of targets to 10 targets per game. He also has only caught 50% of his targets. However, this was against 2 of the best defenses the league has to offer with Pittsburgh being the best of them all. You have to expect this number to increase also versus the less then stellar defenses that the Texans have coming up in the coming weeks (@Cin, Ten, @Sea, Ind, Cle). So lets say now he is catching more like 70% of his targets as opposed to 50% of them. You are now looking at a 7 catch game.
All of the reasoning and statistics above have to be taken into consideration. Also, the new Offensive Coordinator of the Texans was promoted from within house (offensive line coach). They are going to be running the same system more or less with just a new face (and new mind) making the play calls. Could under-utilization of the Texans main weapons, Andre Johnson and Domanick Davis have lead to the firing of the former offensive coordinator? I know it couldn't have helped. You have one of the best young talents in the NFL at wideout, a big, young, physical WR with blazing speed and you only target him on 13% of your offensive plays? There was much more behind the firing of the old offensive coordinator then just two poor performances. If every offensive coordinator that failed to produce gaudy offensive numbers and move the football vs. the Buffalo Bills and Pittsburgh Steelers lost their jobs ... there would be a carousel of new coaches every few weeks in the NFL.
While you can't expect anything more then second-tier, WR #2 numbers from AJ this season ... you can definitely expect a lot more from him then what you have seen the past two weeks. If you are deep enough at WR to absorb his bye week this week, and another owner in your league really has that bad of a taste in their mouths about him and want him off of their roster ... he could be a steady 7 catch, 70-90 yard per week WR who will sprinkle in a TD for you once every few weeks.
Buy low and sell high. It doesn't get much lower then AJ is right now. Whether you own him or not ... please discuss what I have just posted and what you think the out look for AJ is and could be moving forward.
TIA.
