Playoffs
Hall of Fame
Don’t Dismiss Texas
BY BILL BARNWELL for GRANTLAND
BY BILL BARNWELL for GRANTLAND
snipped, read complete article/statistics here: http://grantland.com/features/houston-texans-preview/...This year, the Houston Texans will attempt to be the third consecutive franchise to boomerang back into the playoffs. They have a better shot than you might think. Just as was the case with the Chiefs last August, let’s run through the reasons why the Texans could be the latest franchise to take a large step forward.
The Statistical Case
In December, as Houston was finishing its collapse to 2-14, I wrote about how many of the statistical indicators suggested that Houston wasn’t quite as bad as its record. A pair of subsequent blowout losses to the Colts and Broncos color those numbers some, but even with them included, the Texans simply didn’t play like a 2-14 team last season and won’t look like one again in 2014. Here’s why:
They had the point differential of a 4-12 team....Since 1989, there have been 22 teams that have underperformed their point differential by somewhere between two and 2.5 wins. Those teams improved by an average of 1.6 wins the following season. Not exactly the sort of improvement to plan a nonrefundable parade, but it’s a start.
They lost a disproportionate number of their close games....Houston’s not “due” to win a bunch of close games, just as it wasn’t due to lose a ton of them this past season, but there’s no reason to think it will be that bad in close contests again.
They’re subject to the Plexiglass Principle. Good teams that suddenly turn bad out of nowhere tend to gain back some of their losses very quickly... Forty-eight teams have declined by six wins or more since 1989; the following season, those teams won an average of 3.1 more games than they had the previous campaign.
They blew a lot of games in the second half....Just five other teams have blown at least six halftime leads in a season since 1989, and each of those teams improved dramatically (by 5.2 wins) the following season...
They allowed way too many defensive touchdowns....Since 1999, 56 teams have allowed 30 points (five touchdowns) or more on offensive turnover returns. The following year, those teams allowed an average of 17 points, which is almost exactly at the league average of 16.8 points per season...
They’re going to create more takeaways....There are 53 teams since 1989 with a turnover margin between minus-25 and minus-15, and in the subsequent season, their respective turnover margins were almost exactly zero...
They’ll be better at kicking field goals....The good news is that Bullock hit his final 12 field goal attempts, and that the Texans are unlikely to hit just 74.3 percent of their field goals this season, as kicking accuracy is wildly inconsistent from year to year...
They’ll face an easy schedule. Last year, Houston’s out-of-division schedule included the NFC West, the AFC West, and first-place matchups against the Ravens and Broncos. Their brutal slate rated as the AFC’s toughest schedule and...
The Human Case
The Texans are unlikely to quit on their coach again. It’s impossible to quantify whether a team has given up...
It’s also impossible to figure out whether an NFL head coach will succeed before he actually steps into the gig, but Bill O’Brien certainly seems to have plenty of potential. After spending five seasons...
They’ll have a possible upgrade at quarterback. It seems strange to say Ryan Fitzpatrick represents an upgrade at quarterback, but Houston’s passers were really bad last season. No, really, compare their 2013 numbers to Fitzpatrick’s since the Harvard star began his first season as a full-time starter in Buffalo in 2010:
Fitzpatrick also hasn’t had a receiver pair as good as Andre Johnson and DeAndre Hopkins to work with since he spent 2008 with Chad Johnson and T.J. Houshmandzadeh in Cincinnati.Code:Player Cmp Att Cmp% Yds Y/Att TD INT Houston QBs 371 633 58.6% 4183 6.6 19 22 Fitzpatrick 283 466 60.7% 3172 6.8 21 16
It’s also possible that O’Brien eventually turns the job over to Tom Savage...
The Texans added a once-in-a-generation pass-rusher....
Houston might be healthier....Just eight Texans managed to start all 16 games in 2013, with stars like Arian Foster, Brian Cushing, Duane Brown, and Johnathan Joseph each missing time...
There will be fewer replacement-level snaps....Up and down the roster, players who simply aren’t NFL-caliber regulars were thrust into roles they couldn’t handle. Guys like Ryan Harris, Case Keenum, Wade Smith, Ryan Griffin, and Darryl Sharpton played hundreds of snaps that will go to better players in 2014.
The Case Against Houston
Ryan Fitzpatrick is no good. Had the Texans made a more significant upgrade at quarterback this offseason, I would be banging this drum much harder. As it is, while improvement is assured, the playoffs might be...
...It’s not that Fitzpatrick is good enough to drag his team into January. It’s that he’s not subpar enough to prevent them from dragging him over the finish line.
Andre Johnson is pissed....
There are still holes on the lines. Despite the presence of superstars like Brown and Watt, departures and failed maneuvers have left Houston thin up front...
It’s a top-heavy team....What’s left is a team with a few stars (Watt, Brown, Johnson, Foster, Clowney, Cushing, and Joseph) and little in reserve. For the Texans to compete, they need as many of those guys as possible to stay healthy for 16 games.
They don’t have Andrew Luck. Luck is really good.
...For the Texans to get to the next level and approach the postseason, though, they’ll need all of their offensive weapons (and coaches) firing on all cylinders. If they can combine a competent offense with the devastating pass-rush combination of Watt and Clowney, Houston might just be the latest surprise entrant into the playoffs.
