Trade Partners Wanted

Would you do this:
1-1 3000 to Minnesota for

1-8 1400
2-40 500
3-72 230
3-96 116
4-104 86
5-136 38
6-168 24.2
7-200 11.4
2015 1st 420
2015 2nd 190
----------- 3016

Leaving us with:

1-8 1400
2-33 580
2-40 500
3-65 265
3-72 230
3-96 116
4-97 112
4-104 86
5-129 43
5-136 38
6-161 27
6-168 24.2
7-193 14.2
7-200 11.4
2015 1st 420
2015 2nd 190

What would a mock look like with 14 picks this year and 2 high choices to add next year?

Marshall said:

Would you do this:
1-1 3000 to Minnesota for

1-8 1400
2-40 500
3-72 230
3-96 116
4-104 86
5-136 38
6-168 24.2
7-200 11.4
2015 1st 420
2015 2nd 190
----------- 3016

Leaving us with:

1-8 1400
2-33 580
2-40 500
3-65 265
3-72 230
3-96 116
4-97 112
4-104 86
5-129 43
5-136 38
6-161 27
6-168 24.2
7-193 14.2
7-200 11.4
2015 1st 420
2015 2nd 190

What would a mock look like with 14 picks this year and 2 high choices to add next year?

Click to expand...

In a heart beat if Rick isn't doing the drafting That's Hershcel Walker stuff there. Your team would stacked with young talent for yrs. Provided Rick was a competent GM.

Even if you didn't get your QB this yr you could build the reat of the team and have Two #1' and two #2's to get your QB in the better (IMHO) 2015 QB class. If you had to you could even throw a 2016 1st into the mix to get the 2015 QB.

If they throw in Adrian Peterson and Cordelle Patterson I might take it, maybe another future first rounder and stock our concessions at Reliant for a season.

But seriously, there is not a chance in hell Minnesota trades their entire draft for out first pick...they have just as many if not more needs than we do. And don't give me that "b-b-but the points" nonsense because no actual NFL GM busts out a calculator and adds up those mythical points before making a trade.

That would be laughed at forever and ever if Minny gave up almost their entire draft for 1 pick. The Texans would be ridiculous stupid if they did not pick that up, that draft pick chart is outdated if it's the one I am thinking of.

b0ng said:

That would be laughed at forever and ever if Minny gave up almost their entire draft for 1 pick. The Texans would be ridiculous stupid if they did not pick that up, that draft pick chart is outdated if it's the one I am thinking of.

Click to expand...

I agree with everything except the last statement. The draft pick chart everyone is wanting to claim is outdated was very close on the RGIII trade as well as other trades which have been made with the new CBA.

Interesting start to revaluing...

How to Value NFL Draft Picks

The CAVOA is the comparative value of each pick versus the normal pick and is based off of real, historical, on-field performance. This non-arbitrary statistic is a massive improvement over the old draft chart. To compare my system with the old one, I transformed the old system into a percentage over average as well. The results are below.



The old system massively over values the earliest picks and significantly undervalues mid-to-late round picks. The regression line is clearly a better predictor of future value than the old chart.


Above from Harvard Sports Analysis/Harvard Sports Analysis Collective

Playoffs said:

How to Value NFL Draft Picks

Click to expand...

That chart is based on the performance of players involved in trades rather than how teams value picks in trades. The difference is interesting though:

[IMGwidthsize=400]http://harvardsportsanalysis.files.wordpress.com/2011/11/career.jpg?w=960&h=597[/IMG]

The crossover is mid 2nd with those above not getting good value and those below getting better value with the maximum disparity being late 3rd to upper 5th.

This chart doesn't make any more sense than the old chart. If Cleveland wanted to swap first round picks with the Texans, this chart says all they should offer is their 3-71; and we all know this trade will never happen.

If Minnesota wanted to move up from #8, all they should offer is their 2-40 plus a 7th.

Perhaps this is why trading out of the 1-1 pick so seldom happens. The perceived value of the 1-1 pick is higher than the actuary chart says it is worth.

Number19 said:

This chart doesn't make any more sense than the old chart. If Cleveland wanted to swap first round picks with the Texans, this chart says all they should offer is their 3-71; and we all know this trade will never happen.

If Minnesota wanted to move up from #8, all they should offer is their 2-40 plus a 7th.

Perhaps this is why trading out of the 1-1 pick so seldom happens. The perceived value of the 1-1 pick is higher than the actuary chart says it is worth.

Click to expand...

Given the two options, I would rather base my expectation on the performance chart versus the 'perception" chart. The reality is somewhere between the two and on yearly basis is dependent if there a supreme talent especially at QB at the earliest portions of the draft. 1.1 has not been traded since Whiny Eli and outside of RGIII, there have been only a couple of trades even in the top 5. As think about, most year the worst draft pick to have is the number 1 overall with anywhere in the top 5 closely following.

I do find it interesting that the charts seem to converge in the middle of the draft where during the draft it seems like trades are darn made every pick and where rosters are generally made or broken.