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BL 2014 Trade Down Mock Draft

beerlover

beerlover

Hall of Fame
Scenario: Texans own 5th overall pick in the 2014 Draft. Manziel is @ the top of their board & still available as their clock begins. Phone is ringing off the hook! After full allotment of time Texans announce they have made a trade with the Philadelphia Eagles. Chip Kelly takes Manziel to run his offense, Texans get Eagles 1st this year & next plus this years 2nd.

First Round (From Philly): DE/NT Ra'Shede Hageman, Minnesota, 6060 311
Bookend with Watt. Can kick inside & play nose. Scheme diverse. Huge upside. Protection in case Texans are unable to resign Watt. For those who don't know much about Ra'Shede he is often compared to being Watt like. A former TE who made the switch to DT as his body grew, has similar freakish athletic ability, with high ceiling. Cannot say where the Eagles wind up selecting so will just say 13th overall same as when Texans took Watt in 2011 bringing his combination of power & quickness to the defensive front.

Second Round: OLB Trevor Reilly, Utah, 6040 245
Need outside rusher & kick Brooks inside. Wonder how Stanford loss? Trevor is a big reason why, pressure on a mobile QB. Mercilus will be a three year veteran, can never have enough pass rushers, should be a day one starter in Wade Phillips 3-4.

Second Round (From Philly): QB Kevin Hogan, Stanford, 6040 214
Forgotten man among redshirt sophomore QB class of Mariota/Manziel. Beaten Oregon back to back crushing national title hopes, so steps up under pressure, good game manager with upside who can drive the football down the field, mobile & of course smart. In a long line of great Cardinal signal callers. I'm really good with Keenum starting but what if he gets hurt? Yates is just back-up material, Hogan brings true starter potential with some development.

Third Round: OT Sean Hickey, Syracuse, 6050 291
Smart OL who studies his assignments & will handle them. Serious camp competition for starting RT. Newton will have three years, Williams will be 100% & Hickey is a competitive, hardworking, overachiever who will find a home starting somewhere on this line, possible LG. Better core strength than any of them, brings attitude but plays smart.

Fourth Round: RB James Wilder Jr., Florida State, 6010 225
Texans will need to find a replacement for Tate. Hard to project where he winds up going, certainly could be earlier, but guessing his more dynamic running mates grab enough attention to allow him to fall into Texan lap.

Fifth Round: ILB John Timu, Washington, 6010235
Playmaker, talked about him before reminds me of Troy Polamalu. Excellent special teams addition. With moving Brooks inside this allows you a different skill set to compliment, in nickle or dime packages.

Sixth Round: WR/KR Ty Montgomery, Stanford, 6020 215
Leads nation in kick-off returns. Junior draft eligible (tied to Hogan coming out). Very dynamic, don't really expect a talent like him to still be there but he is not listed this year or next. Also like Oregon State Junior Brandin Cooks, both very dynamic weapons on returns or in the offense. Sorry to say but Martin sure looks like a bust.

Seventh Round: NT/DE Wade Keliikipi, Oregon, 6030 306
More beef upfront. Explosive, gap penetrating, has upside to warrant development, please don't expose him to waiver wire like Chris Jones. Keeping my eye on this guy, was handled effectively by a very good Stanford OL but was still in on four tackles. Could go undrafted but he has plus size you look for & Texans need infusion of talent inside, hence using first pick on one.

Remember Texans would own Philadelphia Eagles first pick following season. This puts Texans in a position to keep using trade down strategy to address need while keeping under salary cap restrictions. The Eagles with Manziel could very well be a playoff team so don't expect a high pick in return, maybe early twenties, tough call to pass on Manziel if an offer like this does not present itself I would have no problem just taking Johnny & having two quality, young QB's moving forward then building around them. let the roasting begin :roast:
 
infantrycak said:
Please explain why the Eagles would be looking for a QB especially hard enough to make that trade.
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Not directed at me but...because Nick Foles was only a third round pick. You have to be a high first round pick to be really good. 16 TDs and no INTs? Bah!

This reply isn't aimed at you either bl.
 
To start off, I wouldn't mine a trade back especially if we can grab an extra 1st and a 2nd. That would be a coup. With that said....

1. I love Hageman. I did a mock a week ago (didn't post it) and I had us with Hageman in the 1st. He's an athlete freak on par with Watt and Mario. I also agree that he could play DE or NT for us.

2. Trevor Reilly. Not familiar with him. I do agree that we need to address OLB, but somebody needs to explain this Brooks Reed to ILB stuff to me. I don't get it.

2. Kevin Hogan. I was a big fan of him before the season. I thought he had a ton of potential. However, the more I watch him the less I like him. He has a Tebow-like windup and really struggles with accuracy. He also isn't coming out in the draft this year FWIW.

3. Not all that familiar with Hickey, but I agree with the position and the timing. I am not a fan of using a top 10 pick on a RT.

4. James Wilder. I don't get it man. Everyone loves this guy and I have no idea why. He's a physical specimen for sure. But Devonta Freeman is a much more polished RB and has always been ahead of him in the RB rotation. Also, Karlos Williams, a converted Safety, has jumped into the backup RB role and is taking snaps from Wilder. He's also been more successful. IMO, Wilder would have been better off playing LB in college because that's where his future was. He isn't a natural RB to me.

5. Not familiar with Timu, but I believe you have mocked him before and I don't see a problem with it.

6. I really like Montgomery. I've liked him since he was a freshman. Thought he had a ton of potential. He could be twice the player Martin is. That said, he's a Junior and there is no way he enters early with a mid-to-late round grade.

7. Not familiar with Keliikipi, but I think you've mentioned him before also. Agree that we should double dip on the DL this year.

Overall, I disagree with a few of the picks, but I definitely agree with the direction you are going with the draft. Rep.
 
WolverineFan said:
To start off, I wouldn't mine a trade back especially if we can grab an extra 1st and a 2nd. That would be a coup. With that said....

1. I love Hageman. I did a mock a week ago (didn't post it) and I had us with Hageman in the 1st. He's an athlete freak on par with Watt and Mario. I also agree that he could play DE or NT for us.

2. Trevor Reilly. Not familiar with him. I do agree that we need to address OLB, but somebody needs to explain this Brooks Reed to ILB stuff to me. I don't get it.

2. Kevin Hogan. I was a big fan of him before the season. I thought he had a ton of potential. However, the more I watch him the less I like him. He has a Tebow-like windup and really struggles with accuracy. He also isn't coming out in the draft this year FWIW.

3. Not all that familiar with Hickey, but I agree with the position and the timing. I am not a fan of using a top 10 pick on a RT.

4. James Wilder. I don't get it man. Everyone loves this guy and I have no idea why. He's a physical specimen for sure. But Devonta Freeman is a much more polished RB and has always been ahead of him in the RB rotation. Also, Karlos Williams, a converted Safety, has jumped into the backup RB role and is taking snaps from Wilder. He's also been more successful. IMO, Wilder would have been better off playing LB in college because that's where his future was. He isn't a natural RB to me.

5. Not familiar with Timu, but I believe you have mocked him before and I don't see a problem with it.

6. I really like Montgomery. I've liked him since he was a freshman. Thought he had a ton of potential. He could be twice the player Martin is. That said, he's a Junior and there is no way he enters early with a mid-to-late round grade.

7. Not familiar with Keliikipi, but I think you've mentioned him before also. Agree that we should double dip on the DL this year.

Overall, I disagree with a few of the picks, but I definitely agree with the direction you are going with the draft. Rep.
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Thanks :wesmantexanfan:
 
beerlover said:
Chip Kelly loves Manziel.
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No offense and assuming that is true, so what? If Foles keeps playing well, hell right now he is playing fantastic, there is about a 0% chance they take a QB high much less make a monster trade to do so. Monster trades are made by desperate teams not by teams with a young QB playing lights out. Just not seeing it.

Also, Jax, Tampa and Minnesota are all in front of the Texans and may take 2 or 3 of the top QBs.

I would look to teams more desperate for a QB as a trade partner. TN may be in the market with Locker's lis franc, Palmer is not getting any younger or better in Arizona, etc.
 
infantrycak said:
No offense and assuming that is true, so what? If Foles keeps playing well, hell right now he is playing fantastic, there is about a 0% chance they take a QB high much less make a monster trade to do so. Monster trades are made by desperate teams not by teams with a young QB playing lights out. Just not seeing it.

Also, Jax, Tampa and Minnesota are all in front of the Texans and may take 2 or 3 of the top QBs.
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I dunno, Mike Glennon seems like a diamond in the rough for Tampa. I've been impressed with him from what I've seen so far. He doesn't look like he's overwhelmed by the game.
 
infantrycak said:
No offense and assuming that is true, so what? If Foles keeps playing well, hell right now he is playing fantastic, there is about a 0% chance they take a QB high much less make a monster trade to do so. Monster trades are made by desperate teams not by teams with a young QB playing lights out. Just not seeing it.

Also, Jax, Tampa and Minnesota are all in front of the Texans and may take 2 or 3 of the top QBs.

I would look to teams more desperate for a QB as a trade partner. TN may be in the market with Locker's lis franc, Palmer is not getting any younger or better in Arizona, etc.
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Tennessee, Arizona, and Chicago all strike me as teams that might want a QB. The problem is Tennessee has Locker for one more year and they seem content with Fitzpatrick at backup. Arizona has an aging Palmer and nothing behind him. Chicago will probably let Cutler walk but also seem to like McCown. Arizona strikes me as a team that would ponder it, but I doubt they pull the trigger. Pittsburgh may also be a dark horse.

It's going to be tough for us to find a trade partner to move back unless somebody covets Clowney or Barr and they fall to us.
 
2 firsts and a second for our 5th pick? Seems high, no? I think I'd take it.

If we're drafting 5th I want Matthews or Evans(unless I hear something that puts me off Evans).

Thought Hogan was a no go for 2014?
 
Beerlover's rep on this board is surprisingly low. He always puts out thoughtful, well organized drafts and posts, yet he's so low on the rep numbers. I don't get it. +rep, good read.

I think we need to go early on the defense this year too. If you were to make a trade like that, I'd try to package the 2013 1st and 2nd to move back up in the 1st to get Nix instead of Hageman. However, everyone around here loves Nix and has put him in mocks.
 
infantrycak said:
Please explain why the Eagles would be looking for a QB especially hard enough to make that trade.
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The way Foles is playing right now .... I doubt Philly is a team looking to move up for a QB tho there will be several other teams willing to make such a move.

I could see Philly making a move up for one of the elite OT prospects.
 
Dutchrudder said:
Beerlover's rep on this board is surprisingly low. He always puts out thoughtful, well organized drafts and posts, yet he's so low on the rep numbers. I don't get it...
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You're right. Repped him.

I start reading and forget to rep people.
bth_smiley_grandpa.gif
 
Dutchrudder said:
Beerlover's rep on this board is surprisingly low. He always puts out thoughtful, well organized drafts and posts, yet he's so low on the rep numbers. I don't get it. +rep, good read.
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I wouldn't say that really .... when you consider post and the time he's been here , much of his rep from those posts were very small gains , not the 1k jumps we see today.

This rep system is kinda flawed in that way .... He might have been repped 100 times and it not equal what he could get today from a single poster repping him. Most of the those who have been around from the beginning are that way.
It took a lot of instances of being repped for those here from the beginning to get where they are .... where as when you joined people were giving out ~500 rep points at a time (at the top) , today the top group is ~900 .... a far cry from 1's and 5's.


That's not to say I don't value BL's contributions , just that I understand why it is like it is.


I think we need to go early on the defense this year too. If you were to make a trade like that, I'd try to package the 2013 1st and 2nd to move back up in the 1st to get Nix instead of Hageman. However, everyone around here loves Nix and has put him in mocks.
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I like the idea of a good defensive player on the front seven too but I also think RT is a position that deserves a premium pick.

Then we have ....QB. I don't think any of us have really made up our minds on Keenum just yet.
 
Dutchrudder said:
Beerlover's rep on this board is surprisingly low. He always puts out thoughtful, well organized drafts and posts, yet he's so low on the rep numbers. I don't get it. +rep, good read.
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Thanks Dutch, always enjoy your posts as well!

Dutchrudder said:
I think we need to go early on the defense this year too. If you were to make a trade like that, I'd try to package the 2013 1st and 2nd to move back up in the 1st to get Nix instead of Hageman. However, everyone around here loves Nix and has put him in mocks.
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Made conscious effort to craft a balanced draft addressing both sides equally (4 ea. offense/defense). Hageman is the kind of nose I want, can fill 3-4 or 4-3 roles in Wade Phillips system, he is scheme diverse & potentially a pro bowl DT with type of measurable to impact double teaming JJ Watt. I think a move like this would also extend the Ninja's contract & productivity with Texans at least three more years. That stability should do wonders.

On to Reilly, who is still underrated, plays in a legit program but not well covered. He will have his coming out party first @ the Senior Bowl then the combine, his stock will soar! He has the size you look for out of a DE/OLB 6-5 255, still long & lanky he is a pass rushing DE with 7.5 sacks 14 TFL but also can play standing up & leads team in tackles 78 & plus in coverage. He is versatile enough to play OLB or ILB, reminds me a lot of Cushing when he played USC, just a longer frame with room to build. Gets downhill in a hurry & plays those cutback lanes well, gives Cushing someone to finally groom inside or outside.

I've watched the rise of Kevin Hogan. He is one of my big three, the red shirt sophomore class of Johnny Manziel & Marcus Mariota. Chip Kelly recruited all three. Johnny was his top choice & actually committed originally to Oregon before changing his mind, then Mariota became his second choice he signed so Hogan went to the QB farm Stanford. He has all the tools. Smart, well coached in a pro style offense, understands timing in the pocket, has mobility, accurate, not a rocket arm but good enough. Love progress Keenum has made, think regardless who they draft he will be the incumbent starting QB until proven otherwise, this gives a young QB like Hogan time to develop properly & Texans can have a true competition @ QB position.

Regarding OL I'm in total agreement Texans will draft another OT. However I think they'll go back to their ZBS roots & grab a player who fits their system better & Hickey is your classic zone blocking tackle. None of this slow, dragging your feet, kick stepping the wrong direction stuff. He is a technician who is tenacious & surprisingly strong. He takes good angles, quick/decisive off the snap, good knee bend & keeps his base in position to defend. Realize not a sexy pick, or the specimen with long arms/trunk most look for but a throwback, lunch pale in your face doesn't get beat competitor.

With exception of Hogan, 3 of these guys could be your newest Texan starters next season. QB is too important to ignore & the position is in transition from Schaub & Yates. Will keep my eye out for a DB who strikes my interest but feel these are the four most important positions of need at this time.

Thanks for everyone's feedback, much appreciated :wesmantexanfan:
 
beerlover said:
First Round (From Philly): DE/NT Ra'Shede Hageman, Minnesota, 6060 311
Bookend with Watt. Can kick inside & play nose. Scheme diverse. Huge upside. Protection in case Texans are unable to resign Watt. For those who don't know much about Ra'Shede he is often compared to being Watt like. A former TE who made the switch to DT as his body grew, has similar freakish athletic ability, with high ceiling. Cannot say where the Eagles wind up selecting so will just say 13th overall same as when Texans took Watt in 2011 bringing his combination of power & quickness to the defensive front.
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Looking back 2011 in hindsight where would you grade JJ Watt compared to his counterparts -

1. Cam Newton
2. Von Miller
3. Marcell Dareus
4. AJ Green
5. Patrick Peterson
6. Julio Jones
7. Aldon Smith
8. Jake Locker
9. Tyron Smith
10. Blaine Gabbert

I would argue he should well have been 1st overall. However, other than Carolina who paid the big bucks, who really cares now? Most have become franchise players approaching huge extensions. Which brings me to my next question, will the Texans be able to keep/extend JJ Watt? Another factor to consider is who will be calling the shots & who will be surrounding him? What big cap allotment/extension under Rick Smith has panned out?

Questions for y'all to consider...... and those smarter than me to respond :kitten:

But when it comes to player evaluation, "I can do this" here is some more facets to my 1st selection outside of Manziel (if Chip & company don't come calling) Ra'Shede Hageman-

Interior DT who could slide outside to DE in a 3-4. Like Watt he has really grown, transformed into a premier NFL body with freakish like athletic ability. As usual his stock will not soar until scouts/media see him test @ combine. GM's will take notice when his "numbers" are posted but reportedly the 6'6' 311 interior linemen has a 40" vertical. On tape despite his length he is a natural knee bender & keeps his pad level down, excellent pursuit, more than just "run plugger" can stand up & moves well in space, doesn't hurt he wears #99
RaShede-Hageman.jpeg
 
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Just watched some of hageman vs Wisconsin. Not sure what year.

Need to watch more, but so far I'm not impressed. He's definitely a physical specimen, but I was not impressed with him as a football player. Not enought to take him in the first round.
 
Rey said:
Just watched some of hageman vs Wisconsin. Not sure what year.

Need to watch more, but so far I'm not impressed. He's definitely a physical specimen, but I was not impressed with him as a football player. Not enought to take him in the first round.
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Todd McShay really likes him but I cannot understand why he does not get more sacks. If he were more in the mould of Nix I would happily let him clog the lanes. His total tackles are decent but only 2.5 per games which compares with Nix who has missed two games.
I don't think his 2012 arrest for fighting after leaving a bar will move him down much if any and he is known to have a motor. I think I would rather go for Sheldon or Carrethers later in draft for similar impact.

Cool back story of his adoption: http://espn.go.com/blog/bigten/post/_/id/87326/gophers-hageman-structured-for-success
 
badboy said:
Todd McShay really likes him but I cannot understand why he does not get more sacks. If he were more in the mould of Nix I would happily let him clog the lanes. His total tackles are decent but only 2.5 per games which compares with Nix who has missed two games.
I don't think his 2012 arrest for fighting after leaving a bar will move him down much if any and he is known to have a motor. I think I would rather go for Sheldon or Carrethers later in draft for similar impact.

Cool back story of his adoption: http://espn.go.com/blog/bigten/post/_/id/87326/gophers-hageman-structured-for-success
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Nice link, good find BB.

My approach will be to add value, through trading down, while seeking potentialy best player available. Ra'Shede Hageman has Poe potential X2. Fact he is scheme diverse is something of great value & interest to Wade Phillips. He plays a lot of four man fronts, not just three & either way Hageman is a three down lineman which is what I feel Texans should target not just a run plugger up the middle. He needs to be supremely athletic same time. I've watched him get super low & drive three guys back off the goaline, chase down a RB, swatt passes & block kicks. Not much around him @ Minnesota, sound familar?

Also expect Wade Phillips to remain with the Texans. Not so sure about rest of staff, although there are some good ones like Joseph. Could be wrong but retaining Phillips should help in keeping Watt if they add some weapons around him.

:wesmantexanfan:
 
badboy said:
Todd McShay really likes him but I cannot understand why he does not get more sacks.
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A friendly word of advice, be very very careful following any Todd McShay advice or recommendations. IMHO Todd McShay is one of the very worst talent evaluators in the media. McShay is a talking head not a draft scout.

IE: while announcing the Cotton Bowl McShay emphatically said that Jr. Jevan Snead was a definite 1st RD draft pick. Snead left school early was never drafted and never made a NFL 53 man roster.

McShay is the reason that I dropped my ESPN subscription to ESPN INsider. It was a a subscription to a lot of wrong and bad information.
 
Texian said:
A friendly word of advice, be very very careful following any Todd McShay advice or recommendations. IMHO Todd McShay is one of the very worst talent evaluators in the media. McShay is a talking head not a draft scout.

IE: while announcing the Cotton Bowl McShay emphatically said that Jr. Jevan Snead was a definite 1st RD draft pick. Snead left school early was never drafted and never made a NFL 53 man roster.

McShay is the reason that I dropped my ESPN subscription to ESPN INsider. It was a a subscription to a lot of wrong and bad information.
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McShay is the hair apparent to Mel Kipper :lion:
 
Texian said:
A friendly word of advice, be very very careful following any Todd McShay advice or recommendations. IMHO Todd McShay is one of the very worst talent evaluators in the media. McShay is a talking head not a draft scout.

IE: while announcing the Cotton Bowl McShay emphatically said that Jr. Jevan Snead was a definite 1st RD draft pick. Snead left school early was never drafted and never made a NFL 53 man roster.

McShay is the reason that I dropped my ESPN subscription to ESPN INsider. It was a a subscription to a lot of wrong and bad information.
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Just do the exact opposite of what he says then, LOL.
 
WolverineFan said:
4. James Wilder. I don't get it man. Everyone loves this guy and I have no idea why. He's a physical specimen for sure. But Devonta Freeman is a much more polished RB and has always been ahead of him in the RB rotation. Also, Karlos Williams, a converted Safety, has jumped into the backup RB role and is taking snaps from Wilder. He's also been more successful. IMO, Wilder would have been better off playing LB in college because that's where his future was.
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I get why people love Wilder, he's a physical specimen like you said and he works hard. He never gives up. You're right that Freeman is way more polished and versatile, but I don't see Freeman coming out this year. I think he'll stay. Wilder is probably going to come out because he isn't the starter and like you said Williams is going to take even more of his snaps.

He couldn't have been better than the linebackers we've had, I think that was why he stuck to RB. Apparently, he was one heck of a linebacker in HS.
 
Playoffs said:
That was Kiper who had Clausen at #4th overall -- McShay didn't have him in his top 25. But they both suck, and they're more news gatherers than talent evaluators. And teams lie to them all the time.

Equally Inaccurate: An Analysis of Mel Kiper Jr. and Todd McShay’s Draft Rankings
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The difference between them is that Kiper actually has legitimate sources and contacts around the league who clue him in to rising players, sleepers, etc. He works year around researching and gathering information on every player for that year's draft.

McShay is a leach who steals info from everyone in the business and projects it as his own. He has no integrity and no talent.

I actually respect Kiper because of the work he puts in. McShay is a parasite who doesn't have the first clue how to evaluate talent on his own.
 
WolverineFan said:
The difference between them is that Kiper actually has legitimate sources and contacts around the league who clue him in to rising players, sleepers, etc. He works year around researching and gathering information on every player for that year's draft.

McShay is a leach who steals info from everyone in the business and projects it as his own. He has no integrity and no talent.

I actually respect Kiper because of the work he puts in. McShay is a parasite who doesn't have the first clue how to evaluate talent on his own.
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I agree whole heartily 100% with this^^^^^^^^
 
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