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Texans compensatory picks 2014.

7

76Texan

Hall of Fame
Last year, the Texans were awarded a third and a sixth.

They lost:
Mario to the Bills with a big contract.
Jason Allen to the Bungals on a 2-yr/$8.2M deal.
Brisiel to the Raiders on a 5-yr/$20M deal.
And Dreessen to the Broncos on a 3-yr/&8.5M deal.

They signed two veterans Donnie Jones and Brady James to one-yr veteran minimum (thereabout).

What can we expect for the upcoming year?
 
Barwin and Casey were the only real losses (Barwin not a true loss at all) and neither signed for that much plus we signed Lechler so my guess is a 6th if we get anything because Quin and Reed will balance each other out. Good to know that we finally get a good compensatory pick and piss it away on freaking Sam Montgomery.
 
TheIronDuke said:
Barwin and Casey were the only real losses (Barwin not a true loss at all) and neither signed for that much plus we signed Lechler so my guess is a 6th if we get anything because Quin and Reed will balance each other out. Good to know that we finally get a good compensatory pick and piss it away on freaking Sam Montgomery.
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What about Forsett, Jones, and Ball ?
 
drs23 said:
They were all free agents weren't they? If so, no compo.
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That is the point of compensatory picks - to compensate teams who lose more/higher quality free agents than they sign.

In addition to the 32 selections in each of the seven rounds, a total of 32 compensatory picks are awarded to teams that have lost more or better compensatory free agents than they signed in the previous year. Teams that gain and lose the same number of players but lose higher-valued players than they gain also can be awarded a pick, but only in the seventh round, after the other compensatory picks.
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drs23 said:
They were all free agents weren't they? If so, no compo.
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Yep, they were all free agents. The only players to be considered for compensatory selection purposes are Quin, Casey, and Barwin. We signed Lechler and Reed in free agency so I don't think we'll be getting much if anything compensatory-wise.
 
TheIronDuke said:
Yep, they were all free agents. The only players to be considered for compensatory selection purposes are Quin, Casey, and Barwin. We signed Lechler and Reed in free agency so I don't think we'll be getting much if anything compensatory-wise.
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Quin cancels out Reed.
Casey cancels out Lechler.

I think we'll get a 4th or 5th for Barwin.
We should get 2 lower picks for the other three guys.
 
76Texan said:
Quin cancels out Reed.
Casey cancels out Lechler.

I think we'll get a 4th or 5th for Barwin.
We should get 2 lower picks for the other three guys.
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We won't get anything for losing scrub veterans. If teams got compensation picks for every free agent they lost then there'd be hundreds handed out. NFL doesn't release their formula for determining comp picks so it's anyone's guess, but considering what we lost vs what we got in free agency I wouldn't think we'll get much if anything.
 
TheIronDuke said:
We won't get anything for losing scrub veterans. If teams got compensation picks for every free agent they lost then there'd be hundreds handed out. NFL doesn't release their formula for determining comp picks so it's anyone's guess, but considering what we lost vs what we got in free agency I wouldn't think we'll get much if anything.
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I don't think it matters. We lost one because we signed Jones last year at the minimum level; this year, he signs with tbe Eagles at the minimum level as well (plus "inflation" per cap rule.

We lost another by signing James to a minimum veteran contract; on the other hand, both Forsett and Ball signed two-year deals at a level higher than James (in term of dollar amount vs years of service).

There might be other teams that lost "more highly qualified" players, so I only count 2 of the 3 to be on the safe side.

Jones will be both the punter and the holder for the Eagles.
He's a starter, so that should help.

Ball was named a starter to start the season for the Jaguars; that should help also.
Forsett is their number two RB behind MJD; you'll never know how long MJD can hold up.

The signs are better than you might think.
 
76Texan said:
I don't think it matters. We lost one because we signed Jones last year at the minimum level; this year, he signs with tbe Eagles at the minimum level as well (plus "inflation" per cap rule.

We lost another by signing James to a minimum veteran contract; on the other hand, both Forsett and Ball signed two-year deals at a level higher than James (in term of dollar amount vs years of service).

There might be other teams that lost "more highly qualified" players, so I only count 2 of the 3 to be on the safe side.

Jones will be both the punter and the holder for the Eagles.
He's a starter, so that should help.

Ball was named a starter to start the season for the Jaguars; that should help also.
Forsett is their number two RB behind MJD; you'll never know how long MJD can hold up.

The signs are better than you might think.
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If you're right, then the Greg Jones signing factors in there somewhere too.
 
ChampionTexan said:
If you're right, then the Greg Jones signing factors in there somewhere too.
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You're right; how did I miss that big guy ?

So we still have one decent size contract and two smaller ones.

Two comp picks at least.
I think it's about time we package 'em picks to move up in the draft.
 
76Texan said:
What about Forsett, Jones, and Ball ?
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All three of those contracts qualify for the compensatory pick equation. We should receive at least two picks between rounds 4 and 6, and perhaps three picks within those rounds.

We can not trade those picks, however... Even after they have been awarded. They must be used by us on draft day to select a player... I'm not sure if we could select a player and then trade his rights on draft day to another team to get around that rule or not.
 
I can't believe anyone thinks we're going to be getting multiple compensatory picks, especially after last year where we lost a lot and signed little and only got 2 compensatory picks. We won't find out what we get until draft time but I guarantee we won't get all these picks you guys are thinking. Compensatory picks are more geared towards teams who lose players who leave for big contracts, not for scrub JAG's. We got the freaking Mr. Irrelevant pick for losing Dunta Robinson who got a huge contract for God's sakes and we're talking about getting compensatory picks for a NFL-minimum getting PUNTER? Good luck with that.

And, as was pointed out, compensatory picks can't be traded.
 
dalemurphy said:
All three of those contracts qualify for the compensatory pick equation. We should receive at least two picks between rounds 4 and 6, and perhaps three picks within those rounds.

We can not trade those picks, however... Even after they have been awarded. They must be used by us on draft day to select a player... I'm not sure if we could select a player and then trade his rights on draft day to another team to get around that rule or not.
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We can always package our own picks.
 
TheIronDuke said:
I can't believe anyone thinks we're going to be getting multiple compensatory picks, especially after last year where we lost a lot and signed little and only got 2 compensatory picks. We won't find out what we get until draft time but I guarantee we won't get all these picks you guys are thinking. Compensatory picks are more geared towards teams who lose players who leave for big contracts, not for scrub JAG's. We got the freaking Mr. Irrelevant pick for losing Dunta Robinson who got a huge contract for God's sakes and we're talking about getting compensatory picks for a NFL-minimum getting PUNTER? Good luck with that.

And, as was pointed out, compensatory picks can't be traded.
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Barwin's contract is of a bigger value than several guys like Matt Flynn, Josh Morgan, and Curtis Lofton. Their previous teams received a 4th as compensation; I don't see why the Texans can't.
 
We just need to start tallying a list of additions and free agent subtractions (guys who weren't cut) to see what we're working with. Then go after financials to estimate their value.

Free Agent Losses (6 qualifying):
Connor Barwin (6 years, 6 APY) 4th
Glover Quin (5 years, 4.7 APY ) 5th
James Casey (3 years, 4 APY) 5th
Justin Forsett (2 years, 1 APY) 7th
Alan Ball (2 years, 1 APY) 7th
Donnie Jones (1 year, 905k) 7th
Shayne Graham (1 year, minimum) nada
Rashad Butler (1 year, 715k) zilch

Free Agent Adds (3 qualifying):
March 28, 2013 Signed RB Greg Jones. (1 year, 1m APY) 7th
March 23, 2013 Signed P Shane Lechler. (3 years, 1.833 APY) 7th
March 23, 2013 Signed S Ed Reed. (3 years, 5 APY) 4th
May 15, 2013 Signed C Tyler Horn. (minimum) nada

If they grade Barwin on the APY, then he's definitely a 4th, if they grade him on guaranteed money, then he's a 5th/6th. His contract is wacky because it's so long, and it's heavily backloaded. I'll project a 4th here just for the heck of it, cause I'm pretty sure Ed Reed's deal will cancel it out either way.

Glover Quin and Ed Reed are right at the 4th/5th cutoff line. Last year it was right around 4.75million APY, but the lines generally move slightly higher each year. So they could both be rated a 5th, I don't know, it just depends. I would lean towards a 4th for Reed and a 5th for Quin.

Casey is in the low end of the 5th round range.

Forsett, Jones and Ball are all solidly in the 7th range.

The other guys listed are just to show that I am aware of them, and they do not affect the picks as far as I know. If anyone has more info on them, go ahead and post it.

So that's 6 adds, and 3 losses that qualify. I think Barwin and Reed cancel each other out. I think Jones and Lechler cancel out Ball and Forsett. And I think we end up with two 5ths for Quin and Casey, and a 7th for Jones. So 3 compensatory picks should be coming our way to help the new regime right the ship. Not too shabby.

All done.
 
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Wolf6151 said:
@DR, where does Joe Mays fit into all this?
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He was signed Jul 29, 2013, which is well after the June 1st cutoff date for compensatory picks. Anything that happens after June 1st does not effect compensatory picks, no matter how big the contract.
 
Are we going to lose a pick for getting rid of Quin, as compensation to the other teams?
 
I'll take the under on 3 comp picks. The year before we only got 2 comp picks and we lost a lot more players and signed fewer. I also think Dutch projected 3-4 comp picks for the last draft where we got 2 as well, but I know it's all a guess as there's no formula that anyone actually knows.
 
TheIronDuke said:
I'll take the under on 3 comp picks. The year before we only got 2 comp picks and we lost a lot more players and signed fewer. I also think Dutch projected 3-4 comp picks for the last draft where we got 2 as well, but I know it's all a guess as there's no formula that anyone actually knows.
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Yeah, the difference was that last year we signed a couple guys to minimum deals, but gave them signing bonuses of 65k (Bradie James and Alan Ball). I rated them as not impacting the compensatory picks due to minimum salary, when in reality the NFL sees any signing bonus compensation as no longer being a minimum deal. The NFL counted them as 7ths, which is what took away 2 of the picks I projected. Now we know, and knowing is half the battle!

It's not an exact science, since we don't have the salary structure and rules from the NFL's secret formula, but we can get more accurate over time by using the previous year's numbers to project next year's. Snap counts can also figure into this, but it seems like things are OK so far. Alan Ball is starting at CB for Jax, Forsett is playing about 15% of the snaps for Jax, Donnie Jones is punting for Philly, Barwin and Quin are starters, James Casey is playing some offense and STs. So I'm pretty confident in these projections now, but it could change a little by the end of the year if someone loses their job.

You can check snap counts here: http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/snapcounts
 
Dutchrudder said:
Yeah, the difference was that last year we signed a couple guys to minimum deals, but gave them signing bonuses of 65k (Bradie James and Alan Ball). I rated them as not impacting the compensatory picks due to minimum salary, when in reality the NFL sees any signing bonus compensation as no longer being a minimum deal. The NFL counted them as 7ths, which is what took away 2 of the picks I projected. Now we know, and knowing is half the battle!

It's not an exact science, since we don't have the salary structure and rules from the NFL's secret formula, but we can get more accurate over time by using the previous year's numbers to project next year's. Snap counts can also figure into this, but it seems like things are OK so far. Alan Ball is starting at CB for Jax, Forsett is playing about 15% of the snaps for Jax, Donnie Jones is punting for Philly, Barwin and Quin are starters, James Casey is playing some offense and STs. So I'm pretty confident in these projections now, but it could change a little by the end of the year if someone loses their job.

You can check snap counts here: http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/snapcounts
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True, I hope you don't feel like I was putting you on blast I just don't see how we were all that impacted by having our free agents taken away. But I hope you're right and I am wrong and I of course value your opinion on this which is why I summoned you to this thread since you were on sabbatical when this was originally written.
 
Big Lou said:
I long for last year when we weren't talking draft until like Feb-Mar,*sigh*......
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Yep...no matter how overrated or how much a pretender we were last year way more fun than compensatory pick talk before Halloween.
 
How are we going to get a 5th as a comp pick for Quin and keep it even though we signed Reed? I guarantee we arent getting that much, then again I don't know for sure and it's a total guess.
 
TheIronDuke said:
How are we going to get a 5th as a comp pick for Quin and keep it even though we signed Reed? I guarantee we arent getting that much, then again I don't know for sure and it's a total guess.
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Reeds and caseys salarys are near equal. Plus reed being cut and being old factoer into the equation from what I understand
 
TheIronDuke said:
True, I hope you don't feel like I was putting you on blast I just don't see how we were all that impacted by having our free agents taken away. But I hope you're right and I am wrong and I of course value your opinion on this which is why I summoned you to this thread since you were on sabbatical when this was originally written.
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Good post here Sir.
 
a didn't they use on of those picks but then in turn fired him for smoking a cigar in a bathroom LOL BUST PICK on da Texans
 
Last year we were eligible for 4 compensatory picks but only got 2, so I'm doubtful that we get two 5th and one 7th round picks. If we did get 3 comp. picks then we could really use our own picks to trade up for an extra 3rd and/or 4th round picks. There will be some good value prospects in those rounds. With as many holes as this team has though, I'll be very happy if we get one 5th. And hopefully we don't waste these pick(s) like we did last year.
 
Wolf6151 said:
Last year we were eligible for 4 compensatory picks but only got 2, so I'm doubtful that we get two 5th and one 7th round picks. If we did get 3 comp. picks then we could really use our own picks to trade up for an extra 3rd and/or 4th round picks. There will be some good value prospects in those rounds. With as many holes as this team has though, I'll be very happy if we get one 5th. And hopefully we don't waste these pick(s) like we did last year.
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Thank you, I totally agree. I say we will get one sixth round comp pick and maaaybe a 7th too.
 
Wolf6151 said:
Last year we were eligible for 4 compensatory picks but only got 2, so I'm doubtful that we get two 5th and one 7th round picks.
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The Texans lost 4 FAs in 2012 (Mario, Allen, Brisiel, and Dreessen) and signed two (Bradie James and Donnie Jones) for a net loss of 2 FAs. Some (including myself) didn't think the minimum contracts that James and Jones signed would count in the compensatory formula. We were wrong.

In 2013, the Texans FA loss-gain was a net +3. 6 lost (Barwin, Casey, Quin, Forsett, Ball, and Donnie Jones) with 3 gained (Reed, Lechler, and Greg Jones). Donnie Jones signed for less than $1 million, so it's possible that he wouldn't count. But, he signed for less than $1 million in 2012 and counted against the Texans, so I would include him in the equation based upon that.

The question is what round do these FAs fall into the formula?
Casey averaged $6 million on his deal, which I think would make his value in the 4th round. Casey and Quin both averaged over $4.5 million, which would likely land their value in the 5th. Forsett, Ball, and Donnie Jones would all value as 7th rounders. Ed Reed's contract of nearly $5 million would be valued in the 5th. Lechler and Greg Jones would hold 7th round value. Reed would cancel the pick for Casey (highest in same round) and Lechler and Gereg Jones would cancel the picks for Forsett and Ball. Leaving the Texans with a 4th (Barwin), 5th (Quin), and 7th (Donnie Jones).
 
Another factor into determining if a comp pick is awarded, apparently, is also player performance. None of our losses really contributed to their team besides Quin. I also don't think Barwin was signed for the type of contract that would lead to a high comp pick nor did he really do that much on the field so I can't imagine getting a 4th for "losing" him.
 
TheIronDuke said:
Another factor into determining if a comp pick is awarded, apparently, is also player performance. None of our losses really contributed to their team besides Quin. I also don't think Barwin was signed for the type of contract that would lead to a high comp pick nor did he really do that much on the field so I can't imagine getting a 4th for "losing" him.
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Mainly, the compensation is based upon contract. And Barwin did start, had 59 tackles, 5 sacks, and an int. Worth $6 million/year? Probably not. But that hardly qualifies as not doing much. Ed Reed didn't do much for the Texans, and I could see his value somewhat discounted. But the Texans will still have net +3 FAs.

If you can come up with an example of a player getting a $6 million/year contract, starting all year, and not getting a 4th round pick in compensation (providing the team had a net FA loss), I would like to see it. Otherwise, your doubts don't have much basis in actual facts.
 
Lucky said:
Mainly, the compensation is based upon contract. And Barwin did start, had 59 tackles, 5 sacks, and an int. Worth $6 million/year? Probably not. But that hardly qualifies as not doing much. Ed Reed didn't do much for the Texans, and I could see his value somewhat discounted. But the Texans will still have net +3 FAs.

If you can come up with an example of a player getting a $6 million/year contract, starting all year, and not getting a 4th round pick in compensation (providing the team had a net FA loss), I would like to see it. Otherwise, your doubts don't have much basis in actual facts.
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Nope I don't really know or care enough to research that and I do hope we get all these comp picks that everyone is projecting. I guess I'm just pessimistic about comp picks after a couple of years where everyone was all amped about all the picks we'd get then it'd turn out we got way less than people were saying. This happened just last year. I'm not saying I'll eat my hat if I'm wrong but I will bet something that we aren't getting this huge pile of comp picks for losing scrubs while we also signed a good amount of free agents, 2 of which started all year (Lechler and Mays) I hope I'm wrong though and I guess we will see! I'll be back to eat crow or say I told ya so when we find out.

Actually 3 started all year, forgot about Jones.
 
Mays was cut by the Broncos and won't count as a free agent pickup. He is considered a street free agent much like Peyton Manning didn't factor into the compensatory equation last year.

I get through your several posts in the thread that you doubt the Texans will receive these picks. What I don't see is any real basis for your concerns. If you don't want to bother educating yourself on the topic, why bother to comment extensively?
 
The NFL makes compensatory picks convoluted w/o any real reason for both teams and fans, but given this is season for hardcore or even 'nerd' fans, I don't get people who want to waste everyone's time posting what they "believe' versus at learning something about the process.
 
Nobody even knows the formula the NFL uses so there's really no "education" available. My reasoning for saying we won't receive all these comp picks is based in historical comp picks we've been awarded. I remember Dunta Robinson was supposed to bring us some awesome comp pick and we got Mr. Irrelevent. I guess I'll just go with y'all and stop even thinking about it. Better let all the mockers know to expect at least an additional 4th, 5th, and 7th.
 
There's a guy named Adam JT that is great at predicting comp picks. I haven't seen his predictions this yr. If anybody knows where/when I can find his predictions let me know.

From the NFLPA info he uses to make his predictions I believe he is an agent or in the NFLPA office.
 
steelbtexan said:
There's a guy named Adam JT that is great at predicting comp picks. I haven't seen his predictions this yr. If anybody knows where/when I can find his predictions let me know.

From the NFLPA info he uses to make his predictions I believe he is an agent or in the NFLPA office.
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The guy in the link I posted CLAIMS that his guesstimation is based on the work of AdamJT...and no Adam was just a geek who started to notice patterns and tried to apply what he noticed.

Still really no reason for the NFL not make it more direct than it does.
 
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