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2013 Expectations for DeAndre Hopkins

A

awc713

Noob
if theres a similar thread already started, feel free to shut it down.

i was wondering what people are expecting from hopkins in year 1.

anybody have projections/ guesses as to the stats we should expect from him?

i'm gonna say 5 touchdowns, 650 yards.

with walter gone and devier still recovering, it looks like hopkins will be able to get a good amount of PT...though this has been rare, recently, for rookie WRs...

too high? too low? whats your guess/ explanation?
 
awc713 said:
if theres a similar thread already started, feel free to shut it down.

i was wondering what people are expecting from hopkins in year 1.

anybody have projections/ guesses as to the stats we should expect from him?

i'm gonna say 5 touchdowns, 650 yards.

with walter gone and devier still recovering, it looks like hopkins will be able to get a good amount of PT...though this has been rare, recently, for rookie WRs...

too high? too low? whats your guess/ explanation?
Click to expand...

I'm expecting him to step in and take KW's spot. But more importantly, I'm expecting him to be a SERIOUS upgrade over KW. I'm actually expecting him to be similar to KW during KW's best season.

So I'm expecting 55 catches, 800+ yards, and 8 TDs.
 
Well, he's been compared to Reggie Wayne quite a bit. Reggie Wayne got 27 catches for 345 yards and 0 TDs his rookie year. Who are you comparing him to? What kind of stats do most rookie WRs that aren't blue chip prospects get?
 
The Pencil Neck said:
I'm expecting him to step in and take KW's spot. But more importantly, I'm expecting him to be a SERIOUS upgrade over KW. I'm actually expecting him to be similar to KW during KW's best season.

So I'm expecting 55 catches, 800+ yards, and 8 TDs.
Click to expand...

Man...Those are lofty expectations...

I gotta think about this...
 
eriadoc said:
Well, he's been compared to Reggie Wayne quite a bit. Reggie Wayne got 27 catches for 345 yards and 0 TDs his rookie year. Who are you comparing him to? What kind of stats do most rookie WRs that aren't blue chip prospects get?
Click to expand...

i really dont know much about Hopkins other than he has huge hands, has a big frame...i think he'll be clutch on 3rd downs, and hopefully in the red zone (why i have so many touchdowns for a rookie WR)

as far as comparing him to other players...i was hoping other people could come in this forum and educate us on hopkins, what to expect....didnt watch clemson football at all, so i dont really know....just saying it looks like the opportunity is going to be given for him to succeed
 
Between 25-30 catches, 325-390 yards, 4 TD's and starts the season off behind Martin on the depth chart.
 
eriadoc said:
Well, he's been compared to Reggie Wayne quite a bit. Reggie Wayne got 27 catches for 345 yards and 0 TDs his rookie year. Who are you comparing him to? What kind of stats do most rookie WRs that aren't blue chip prospects get?
Click to expand...

He's also been compared to Roddy White. In Roddy White's rookie year he got 29 catches for 446 yards and 3 TDs.

BUT.

You've got to look at the context. Roddy White was on a run-first Mike Vick squad that threw for about 2400 yards total and where Alge Crumpler led all receivers with 65 receptions and 877 yards.

With Reggie Wayne, he was the 3rd option behind Marvin Harrison who had 109 catches and 1524 yards and Marcus Pollard who had 47 catches and 739 yards.

So... yeah. You're right. That's a better way to look at it.

So, I'll revise my estimate down to about 35 catches for 525 yards and 5 TDs.
 
TEXANRED said:
Between 25-30 catches, 325-390 yards, 4 TD's and starts the season off behind Martin on the depth chart.
Click to expand...

only thing is....martin seems more like a slot receiver whereas hopkins has the body of a #2...? plus we have to replace KW, who was in a lot of blocking plays...

is hopkins good at blocking?
 
awc713 said:
only thing is....martin seems more like a slot receiver whereas hopkins has the body of a #2...? plus we have to replace KW, who was in a lot of blocking plays...

is hopkins good at blocking?
Click to expand...

Unless Hopkins has just a phenom of a camp and preseason and demonstrates total comprehension of the playbook IMO Martin will begin the season as the 2 solely based on experience and this will be his second year in the system. This is not to say that Hopkins claims the 2 at some point this season though.
 
TEXANRED said:
Unless Hopkins has just a phenom of a camp and preseason and demonstrates total comprehension of the playbook IMO Martin will begin the season as the 2 solely based on experience and this will be his second year in the system. This is not to say that Hopkins claims the 2 at some point this season though.
Click to expand...

As of right now he is #4 on the depth chart, it won't take much to surpass Jean though.
 
I expect Hopkins to be KW's replacement and be the #2 by the opener. I expect Martin to continue to be our Slot guy and Jean to be AJ's backup.
 
TEXANRED said:
Unless Hopkins has just a phenom of a camp and preseason and demonstrates total comprehension of the playbook IMO Martin will begin the season as the 2 solely based on experience and this will be his second year in the system. This is not to say that Hopkins claims the 2 at some point this season though.
Click to expand...

I just can't see Martin as the starter at the #2 spot, he's too small to block. I think Lestar starts over Martin regardless of what the depth chart on the mothership shows, but I have a feeling Nuk is the starter.
 
I expect a good season where he get's eased into the game slowly, 30-35 catches and 350-400 yds.


If your LeStar Jean you just saw your job get put in serious jeopardy.
 
awc713 said:
i really dont know much about Hopkins other than he has huge hands, has a big frame...i think he'll be clutch on 3rd downs, and hopefully in the red zone (why i have so many touchdowns for a rookie WR)

as far as comparing him to other players...i was hoping other people could come in this forum and educate us on hopkins, what to expect....didnt watch clemson football at all, so i dont really know....just saying it looks like the opportunity is going to be given for him to succeed
Click to expand...

I think he'll get a chance to succeed, but it'll be measured. It's not like the Texans chose a blue chipper that they'll go out of their way to feed the ball. Hell, AJ was a blue chip prospect and he got 66 catches for 976 yards his rookie season. And his career high in TDs is 9, with 8 three other times. We got one post saying Hopkins needs to come in as a rookie and put up numbers just short of AJ's rookie year.

Just for perspective, guys that were drafted 20 or lower (arbitrary number, but later in the first round) recently:

2012: Kendall Wright, AJ Jenkins, Brian Quick (#33 overall)
2011: Jon Baldwin
2010: Demaryious Thomas, Dez Bryant
2009: Percy Harvin, Hakeem Nicks, Kenny Britt.

So let's shift the analysis just a bit. How many TARGETS do you think Hopkins will get? In their rookie years, the above players put up:

Wright: 64-626-4 (104 targets)
Jenkins: 0-0-0 (0)
Quick: 11-156-2 (28)
Baldwin: 21-254-1 (52)
Thomas: 22-283-2 (39)
Bryant: 45-561-6 (72)
Harvin: 60-790-6 (75)
Nicks: 47-790-6 (75)
Britt: 42-701-3 (75)

So do you think Hopkins is going to get targeted 70-something times, or closer to 30-40?

Walter got targeted 68 times last year. He had 41 catches for 518 yards, 2 TDs, 12.6 avg. If you think Hopkins takes every one of Walter's targets, as a rookie, you should probably realistically expect similar numbers.

The TDs are just a pipe dream. This team doesn't throw a lot of TDs to any given WR.
 
The Pencil Neck said:
So, I'll revise my estimate down to about 35 catches for 525 yards and 5 TDs.
Click to expand...

I was typing up my big long post while you posted this. I think those are reasonable stats to hope for, but I kind of doubt the TDs. My only real expectation for Hopkins this year is to see good things when he does touch the ball. I doubt he'll see 50 targets, much less 70. Kubiak won't likely put that big a load on a rookie WR. JMO.
 
eriadoc said:
I think he'll get a chance to succeed, but it'll be measured. It's not like the Texans chose a blue chipper that they'll go out of their way to feed the ball. Hell, AJ was a blue chip prospect and he got 66 catches for 976 yards his rookie season. And his career high in TDs is 9, with 8 three other times. We got one post saying Hopkins needs to come in as a rookie and put up numbers just short of AJ's rookie year.

Just for perspective, guys that were drafted 20 or lower (arbitrary number, but later in the first round) recently:

2012: Kendall Wright, AJ Jenkins, Brian Quick (#33 overall)
2011: Jon Baldwin
2010: Demaryious Thomas, Dez Bryant
2009: Percy Harvin, Hakeem Nicks, Kenny Britt.

So let's shift the analysis just a bit. How many TARGETS do you think Hopkins will get? In their rookie years, the above players put up:

Wright: 64-626-4 (104 targets)
Jenkins: 0-0-0 (0)
Quick: 11-156-2 (28)
Baldwin: 21-254-1 (52)
Thomas: 22-283-2 (39)
Bryant: 45-561-6 (72)
Harvin: 60-790-6 (75)
Nicks: 47-790-6 (75)
Britt: 42-701-3 (75)

So do you think Hopkins is going to get targeted 70-something times, or closer to 30-40?

Walter got targeted 68 times last year. He had 41 catches for 518 yards, 2 TDs, 12.6 avg. If you think Hopkins takes every one of Walter's targets, as a rookie, you should probably realistically expect similar numbers.

The TDs are just a pipe dream. This team doesn't throw a lot of TDs to any given WR.
Click to expand...

68 targets is silly low for a guy with the snaps that Walter got. 80 targets would be 5 a game and I think that is a realistically low if anything.
 
Starts
Doesn't do to many stupid rookie mistakes
Takes some pressure off AJ
Solidifies his position as #2
 
TEXANRED said:
Between 25-30 catches, 325-390 yards, 4 TD's and starts the season off behind Martin on the depth chart.
Click to expand...

The Pencil Neck said:
He's also been compared to Roddy White. In Roddy White's rookie year he got 29 catches for 446 yards and 3 TDs.

BUT.

You've got to look at the context. Roddy White was on a run-first Mike Vick squad that threw for about 2400 yards total and where Alge Crumpler led all receivers with 65 receptions and 877 yards.

With Reggie Wayne, he was the 3rd option behind Marvin Harrison who had 109 catches and 1524 yards and Marcus Pollard who had 47 catches and 739 yards.

So... yeah. You're right. That's a better way to look at it.

So, I'll revise my estimate down to about 35 catches for 525 yards and 5 TDs.
Click to expand...

Wolf6151 said:
I expect a good season where he get's eased into the game slowly, 30-35 catches and 350-400 yds.


If your LeStar Jean you just saw your job get put in serious jeopardy.
Click to expand...
Ok, so I projected low 30s for Hopkins to TPN's projection of 35, and he thinks I might a little bitter because the Texans drafted him?
LOL!

Furthermore, my projection calls for a healthy squad (AJ, OD, Graham, Foster) along with Jean and Martin showing a normal progression.
It also called for Posey to play 8 games at least at last year level.
If he can't make it back then the Texans need to sign a veteran to take his place.
 
What I didn't expand is that I also expect the defense to get back to the level of play that the general fan base hope for.
I expect the ST play to improve with Lechler, more consistency in the return game (fewer mistakes, not necessarily more yardage), better coverage due to more speed with the younger guys.
I also expect a better run game with Jones in the fold and improvement on the right side of the line.
All this (and no OT game) add up to Schaub not having to pass the ball as much as he did in the early years.
 
76Texan said:
Ok, so I projected low 30s for Hopkins to TPN's projection of 35, and he thinks I might a little bitter because the Texans drafted him?
LOL!

Furthermore, my projection calls for a healthy squad (AJ, OD, Graham, Foster) along with Jean and Martin showing a normal progression.
It also called for Posey to play 8 games at least at last year level.
If he can't make it back then the Texans need to sign a veteran to take his place.
Click to expand...
This statement prompted a question I'd like to pose to the gang here: Suppose Hopkins performs up to and beyond K.W. level (on one of his better years) and at the time of Posey's time to return - say game 6 or 8 or whenever - and has 35-40 catches for 5 or 6 TDs and is making those move the chains catches we expect from the #2. Question is this: What role does Posey play in this scenario? I mean, A.J., O.D., and Foster are gonna be targeted and now Hopkins is sucking up what's left and making the most of them. Where does that leave Posey?
 
76Texan said:
Furthermore, my projection calls for a healthy squad (AJ, OD, Graham, Foster) along with Jean and Martin showing a normal progression.
Click to expand...

What is the normal progression for 3rd year players who caught 6 balls on 12 targets and 2nd year players who caught 10 balls on 27 targets?

It also called for Posey to play 8 games at least at last year level.
Click to expand...

Man that would be awesome. 8 games at last year's level. I am sure those 4 receptions will cut deeply into the production of Hopkins and the other receiving options.
 
ObsiWan said:
This statement prompted a question I'd like to pose to the gang here: Suppose Hopkins performs up to and beyond K.W. level (on one of his better years) and at the time of Posey's time to return - say game 6 or 8 or whenever - and has 35-40 catches for 5 or 6 TDs and is making those move the chains catches we expect from the #2. Question is this: What role does Posey play in this scenario? I mean, A.J., O.D., and Foster are gonna be targeted and now Hopkins is sucking up what's left and making the most of them. Where does that leave Posey?
Click to expand...

A good team needs several receivers for depth.

What the Texans had last year was an anomaly.
(The #3, 4, 5 receivers only combined for 22 catches, I believe).

That has never happened before.

I went through the whole league, and the lowest total next to the Texans were 38 or something like that.
The norm for the league is closer to 70.
There are teams with total in the 80s.
There are two teams in the 90 (98 and 97 I think.)
 
infantrycak said:
What is the normal progression for 3rd year players who caught 6 balls on 12 targets and 2nd year players who caught 10 balls on 27 targets?



Man that would be awesome. 8 games at last year's level. I am sure those 4 receptions will cut deeply into the production of Hopkins and the other receiving options.
Click to expand...

It's inconceivable to isolate a couple of things to make an argument.
You might want to consider all the points together.

Also, as I just stated in an above post, last year was an exception for the Texans (or any NFL team).

You might want to know that Posey only saw real actions in 4 games (perhaps 3-1/2, not even 4), and that his play continued into the play-offs.
You are allowed to put them together to make a projection.
 
JCTexan said:
As the fourth or fifth WR and that's not a bad thing. Would you rather go into the season waiting on Posey to take over the #2 spot when he only caught four passes last year?
Click to expand...

It is very likely that Posey doesn't play a snap in 2013. He won't be ready for training camp which means the only way he gets back is being placed on the PUP list. I don't see Smith and Kubiak making that move.
 
Lucky said:
It is very likely that Posey doesn't play a snap in 2013. He won't be ready for training camp which means the only way he gets back is being placed on the PUP list. I don't see Smith and Kubiak making that move.
Click to expand...

Why do you not see them making that move, and what move do you see them making? IR? If so, what's the advantage to that (compared to PUP)?
 
The situation for Posey is still up in the air.
In February, he twitted that he doesn't expect to miss any game time.
Kubiak seems to indicat that he won't be back until mid-season sometimes.
So we don't really know what to expect there.
 
76Texan said:
It's inconceivable to isolate a couple of things to make an argument.
You might want to consider all the points together.

Also, as I just stated in an above post, last year was an exception for the Texans (or any NFL team).

You might want to know that Posey only saw real actions in 4 games (perhaps 3-1/2, not even 4), and that his play continued into the play-offs.
You are allowed to put them together to make a projection.
Click to expand...

So you answered nothing and presented an incoherent and inaccurate argument. I addressed all the "points" other than if Posey doesn't come back get a vet.

You aren't helping yourself with "Posey only saw real action in 4 games..." because all that means is HIS IMPACT LAST YEAR WAS ZILCH so getting back to last year means zilch.

Cool, you have staked out a ridiculous projection and will make any argument to self-verify it.
 
The interesting part about receiver production comes when I took a look at the Packers.

They also run a version of the WCO.
They have a FB and 4 TEs on the roster (they all contributed in the passing game).

They attempted 2 fewer passes than the Texans.
Yet, their #3-6 combined for 98 catches.
 
ChampionTexan said:
Why do you not see them making that move, and what move do you see them making? IR? If so, what's the advantage to that (compared to PUP)?
Click to expand...
First, a roster spot on the initial 53 would be taken by Posey. Leaving someone available on waivers. Second, Posey is a young player and would not be able to practice with the team until after the 6th week of the season. He won't be ready to contribute. Finally, I don't see the Texans taking the risk until Posey goes through another offseason where he can get completely healthy. If this were a seasoned vet, it would be different. No advantage in bringing Posey back earlier than 2014.
 
infantrycak said:
So you answered nothing and presented an incoherent and inaccurate argument. I addressed all the "points" other than if Posey doesn't come back get a vet.

You aren't helping yourself with "Posey only saw real action in 4 games..." because all that means is HIS IMPACT LAST YEAR WAS ZILCH so getting back to last year means zilch.

Cool, you have staked out a ridiculous projection and will make any argument to self-verify it.
Click to expand...

Posey's play last year needs to include the play-offs; I thought I made that clear.
 
Lucky said:
First, a roster spot on the initial 53 would be taken by Posey. Leaving someone available on waivers. Second, Posey is a young player and would not be able to practice with the team until after the 6th week of the season. He won't be ready to contribute. Finally, I don't see the Texans taking the risk until Posey goes through another offseason where he can get completely healthy. If this were a seasoned vet, it would be different. No advantage in bringing Posey back earlier than 2014.
Click to expand...

I prefer that they sign a vet.
We do have the cap room.

As I looked at it this morning, after signing all the rookies, the Texans should have some $1.6-$1.7M left.

When they leave Posey off the team and sign a vet, they should have the additional $$$ to bring the amount up to at least $2.1M
 
76Texan said:
Posey's play last year needs to include the play-offs; I thought I made that clear.
Click to expand...

What you made clear is you latch on to absurd arguments. Posey wasn't targeted a single time in the 1st playoff game and was 3 of 5 in the 2nd. One game isn't an argument for a projection.

But let's roll with your ridiculous 3.5 plus the playoffs argument, in 8 games "if he plays to last year" that projects to 13 receptions on 28 targets.
 
Lucky said:
The Packers attempted 4 more passes than the Texans (558 - 554).
Click to expand...

You're correct.

Also, as a note, their top two combined for 144 catches.
They just didn't pass the ball much to their RBs; the main difference that I noticed.
 
infantrycak said:
What you made clear is you latch on to absurd arguments. Posey wasn't targeted a single time in the 1st playoff game and was 3 of 5 in the 2nd. One game isn't an argument for a projection.

But let's roll with your ridiculous 3.5 plus the playoffs argument, in 8 games "if he plays to last year" that projects to 13 receptions on 28 targets.
Click to expand...

That still adds to the number, doesn't it?
 
The Texans started last season with 6 receivers on the roster, but neither Posey nor Holliday saw any action on offense early on.

I think we should expect the Texans to sign a vet; and if Bonner doesn't make the roster, maybe two.

Those three (vet+Jean+vet) should see more snaps than the 3 last year as I don't think the Texans would give all of Walter's snaps at the onset.

Or KMart could see more snaps if Bonner takes over one part of return duties.
 
Lucky said:
First, a roster spot on the initial 53 would be taken by Posey. Leaving someone available on waivers. Second, Posey is a young player and would not be able to practice with the team until after the 6th week of the season. He won't be ready to contribute. Finally, I don't see the Texans taking the risk until Posey goes through another offseason where he can get completely healthy. If this were a seasoned vet, it would be different. No advantage in bringing Posey back earlier than 2014.
Click to expand...

I believe you're thinking of the new (in 2012) rule where you can recall one player a year from IR assuming he's on the original 53 man roster, and that's different than PUP. I agree that he's absolutely not a candidate for that.

Posey would not take up a spot on the "original" 53 man roster if he were placed on reserve PUP (which is still in place and unaffected by the new IR rule). In order to be placed on the reserve PUP (out for a minimum of 6 regular season games), Posey would simply need to be placed on the active PUP prior to practicing in training camp (a no brainer), and then moved to the reserve PUP sometime prior to the season starting. I believe he would count against the preseason roster limit (90 thru the third preseason game, and 75 after that), but he would go from the active to reserve PUP without ever having to be on the 53 man roster. After 6 weeks of the regular season, he could then take up to three weeks to practice before either being placed on the 53 man roster (with a corresponding release of course) or placed on season ending IR.

If there's even the slightest chance of Posey making a mid-season comeback in 2013, PUP is the way to go with him.
 
76Texan said:
Ok, so I projected low 30s for Hopkins to TPN's projection of 35...
Click to expand...



JulioJones & TorreySmith were rookies in 2011. RoddyWhite is "comparable" to AndreJohnson, AnquanBoldin is a solid starter. Prior to Dec2012 many thought MattSchaub was comparable to JoeFlacco & MattRyan (he's only 4 years older)

What is most interesting is how Torrey & Julio's numbers compare to their #1 WRs & how KDub's numbers compare to his TEs. This is not a knock on KDub, just an observation. He would be an awesome weapon as a TE. His blocking is great for a WR, but 'meh as a TE..... so what, ODs blocking is 'meh as a TE.
 
Anyhow, I don't know if these numbers prove what I believe is true, but Matt spreads the ball around very well, this offense is designed to give him several options. He will scan the defense pre-snap, superimpose his routes on what he believes they are trying to do & with that information, he determines where his first read will be, then his second, third, & so on.

There is also a level of trust with his receivers, he knows what they can & can't do. Triple coverage, depending on specifics, doesn't necessarily ward him away from Andre Johnson. Shuffling new WRs into the line-up every 3 or 4 games probably didn't help him in December when every other team was playing their best ball.

I expect Schaub to have additional confidence in Keyshawn who will most likely be the slot WR, he's just got to catch the ball (he got open early & often last season), & LeStar who is very similar to Hopkins & will be rotating through that WR2 position (like KDub & Jacoby).

JMO, but if Hopkins gets more than 40 catches as a rookie, then he & Schaub clicked a lot earlier than I thought they would, or Hopkins is a lot better than anyone thought he would be.
 
thunderkyss said:
Anyhow, I don't know if these numbers prove what I believe is true, but Matt spreads the ball around very well, this offense is designed to give him several options. He will scan the defense pre-snap, superimpose his routes on what he believes they are trying to do & with that information, he determines where his first read will be, then his second, third, & so on.

There is also a level of trust with his receivers, he knows what they can & can't do. Triple coverage, depending on specifics, doesn't necessarily ward him away from Andre Johnson. Shuffling new WRs into the line-up every 3 or 4 games probably didn't help him in December when every other team was playing their best ball.

I expect Schaub to have additional confidence in Keyshawn who will most likely be the slot WR, he's just got to catch the ball (he got open early & often last season), & LeStar who is very similar to Hopkins & will be rotating through that WR2 position (like KDub & Jacoby).

JMO, but if Hopkins gets more than 40 catches as a rookie, then he & Schaub clicked a lot earlier than I thought they would, or Hopkins is a lot better than anyone thought he would be.
Click to expand...

It's not easy to project a hard number because there are so many variables as I had mentioned in several posts.

If the Texans D play well and the special win their battle (mostly due to Lechler), the Texans may find themselves ahead more often than not.
If that happens, the Texans would run more; the receivers wouldn't have as much opportunities.

If the opposite happens such that the Texans find themselves needing to pass more often, there would be more opportunities for the receivers.

If the run game is effective early, the Texans could have more success in their passing attacks (more yards, but not necessarily more catches.)

If there's an injury to AJ or OD (or if the Texans save them for the playoffs), others could see more opportunities.

And so on.
 
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