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Football Outsiders: State of the Texans

Tailgate

Tailgate

Fall of Hame
Didnt see this posted anywhere yet. Nothing new to us, but still a good little breakdown of our current depth chart:

State of the Team: Houston Texans
by Andy Benoit
The 2013 "State of the Team" articles will run daily through the NFL draft. These offer a snapshot look at a team’s roster, with players classified by color based on how they fit their role. My analysis is based on film study, not statistics, although we will try to note when my judgment differs significantly from FO's advanced stats, and explain a little bit why. Starters are in bold, and you will notice that there are 12 defensive starters rather than just 11. This denotes the extra playing time that nickelbacks and third receivers usually get in today's NFL. (However, since the Texans change offensive personnel less than almost any other team, we've listed them with only 11 starters.)
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http://www.footballoutsiders.com/state-team/2013/state-team-houston-texans
 
Hmmm ... from the article:

Texans fans don’t appreciate Reed enough. He’s not a great cover guy or pure speed-rusher, but he’s very good at the point of attack against the run. He also has a strong understanding of the little things that help his teammates, such as taking on blocks to set up stunts, twists and blitzes, or setting the edge play side. Phillips’ system is heavily reliant on those little things. A lot of Reed’s dirty work benefits Cushing, who’s often the focal point of Phillips’ interior blitz designs. If he bounces back from last October’s ACL injury, the Texans will once again be dangerous in their dime package.
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I must just be a Schaub lover because I still dont get the lack of arm or lack of velocity. Schaub would benefit grealty from better footwork but his arm is fine. Im not sure if you dont rate Schaub as "good" where the rest of the league would fall
 
We already know who our best players are, but it's always nice to see them get some recognition from the outside world anyway. We know we have a great team, a playoff team in anyone's book. It's just how deep into the playoffs we go that's still a mystery.
 
2012Champs said:
I must just be a Schaub lover because I still dont get the lack of arm or lack of velocity. Schaub would benefit grealty from better footwork but his arm is fine. Im not sure if you dont rate Schaub as "good" where the rest of the league would fall
Click to expand...

He underthrows a lot of balls. He has said that he does it on purpose to make it easier for the receivers to catch & that may be true for all I know.

But to someone who is just watching the game, it doesn't make any sense to have a WR behind the defense, then purposely underthrow a ball allowing the defense to catch up.

Just watching, & not having read a Schaub quote stating he underthrows on purpose, my first guess would be that he couldn't throw it any deeper.

Having said that, there have been a few that looked as deep & straight as any ball thrown in the NFL.... they're just too far & between to make you think he can do it consistently.
 
thunderkyss said:
He underthrows a lot of balls. He has said that he does it on purpose to make it easier for the receivers to catch & that may be true for all I know.

But to someone who is just watching the game, it doesn't make any sense to have a WR behind the defense, then purposely underthrow a ball allowing the defense to catch up.

Just watching, & not having read a Schaub quote stating he underthrows on purpose, my first guess would be that he couldn't throw it any deeper.

Having said that, there have been a few that looked as deep & straight as any ball thrown in the NFL.... they're just too far & between to make you think he can do it consistently.
Click to expand...

I don't have too much of an issue with his deep ball, tbh.

My issue with his arm strength is in the red zone. The windows get smaller and tighter and you have to zip the balls in there. Schaub makes great reads and identifies the right guy to get it to but he can't put enough mustard on the ball to squeeze it in between defenders in those tight spaces. TJ Yates has thrown better balls in the red zone than anything I've seen from Schaub.

This is part of the reason we had such an abysmal red zone percentage prior to having a RB who could punch it in. That's just not where Schaub really shines.

You know, I've said all this and then I went and actually looked at last year's stats. His QB rating was highest in the Red Zone at 96. He had 15 TDs and 1 INT. I don't recall him ever being that good there. I went back through his history and... he's mostly been OK stat-wise in the Red Zone. He just had a down year in 2011 with a <80 rating but since he's been a Texan, he's mostly been good in the red zone with a >100 rating.

That's so totally not how I perceived it. :mariopalm:
 
The Pencil Neck said:
I don't have too much of an issue with his deep ball, tbh.

My issue with his arm strength is in the red zone. The windows get smaller and tighter and you have to zip the balls in there. Schaub makes great reads and identifies the right guy to get it to but he can't put enough mustard on the ball to squeeze it in between defenders in those tight spaces. TJ Yates has thrown better balls in the red zone than anything I've seen from Schaub.

This is part of the reason we had such an abysmal red zone percentage prior to having a RB who could punch it in. That's just not where Schaub really shines.

You know, I've said all this and then I went and actually looked at last year's stats. His QB rating was highest in the Red Zone at 96. He had 15 TDs and 1 INT. I don't recall him ever being that good there. I went back through his history and... he's mostly been OK stat-wise in the Red Zone. He just had a down year in 2011 with a <80 rating but since he's been a Texan, he's mostly been good in the red zone with a >100 rating.

That's so totally not how I perceived it. :mariopalm:
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Lol, and despite that drop by Casey, too!
 
The Pencil Neck said:
I don't have too much of an issue with his deep ball, tbh.

My issue with his arm strength is in the red zone. The windows get smaller and tighter and you have to zip the balls in there. Schaub makes great reads and identifies the right guy to get it to but he can't put enough mustard on the ball to squeeze it in between defenders in those tight spaces. TJ Yates has thrown better balls in the red zone than anything I've seen from Schaub.

This is part of the reason we had such an abysmal red zone percentage prior to having a RB who could punch it in. That's just not where Schaub really shines.

You know, I've said all this and then I went and actually looked at last year's stats. His QB rating was highest in the Red Zone at 96. He had 15 TDs and 1 INT. I don't recall him ever being that good there. I went back through his history and... he's mostly been OK stat-wise in the Red Zone. He just had a down year in 2011 with a <80 rating but since he's been a Texan, he's mostly been good in the red zone with a >100 rating.

That's so totally not how I perceived it. :mariopalm:
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]

The QB rating in the RZ stat can be somewhat skewed when looking at the total number of RZ TDs in comparison with the top QBs. How many times have we seen what we felt was a perfect passing situation for a RZ TD.............and the ball was handed off because of Schaub and/or Kubiak not feeling confident with Schaub's ability to complete the TD?............drove me nuts...........didn't jeopardize his QB rating though.:kitten:
 
CloakNNNdagger said:
]

The QB rating in the RZ stat can be somewhat skewed when looking at the total number of RZ TDs in comparison with the top QBs. How many times have we seen what we felt was a perfect passing situation for a RZ TD.............and the ball was handed off because of Schaub and/or Kubiak not feeling confident with Schaub's ability to complete the TD?............drove me nuts...........didn't jeopardize his QB rating though.:kitten:
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Arian Foster led the league in regular season Red Zone rushing TD's.

Play to your strengths. Sometimes it has nothing to do with Schaub no matter how hard we want it to be...
 
sandman said:
Arian Foster led the league in regular season Red Zone rushing TD's.

Play to your strengths. Sometimes it has nothing to do with Schaub no matter how hard we want it to be...
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Also, we have roughly 35% more goal and go situations than the average of the rest of the league; certainly it adds to persuade the decision.
 
thunderkyss said:
He underthrows a lot of balls. He has said that he does it on purpose to make it easier for the receivers to catch & that may be true for all I know.

But to someone who is just watching the game, it doesn't make any sense to have a WR behind the defense, then purposely underthrow a ball allowing the defense to catch up.

Just watching, & not having read a Schaub quote stating he underthrows on purpose, my first guess would be that he couldn't throw it any deeper.

Having said that, there have been a few that looked as deep & straight as any ball thrown in the NFL.... they're just too far & between to make you think he can do it consistently.
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If he can make the throws sometimes its not arm strength. I dont have the arm strength to throw a ball 60 yards ever. His footwork is what plays into the inconsistant nature of the deep ball not the strength of his arm
 
sandman said:
Arian Foster led the league in regular season Red Zone rushing TD's.

Play to your strengths. Sometimes it has nothing to do with Schaub no matter how hard we want it to be...
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The Patriots led the league in rushing TDs, I wonder what the perception of Tom Brady is in the Red Zone.
 
We hand the ball to Foster in the Red Zone because the D's are all geared toward pass coverage as a result of being scared silly by Schaub's lazer-rocket arm strength. :stirpot:
 
2012Champs said:
I must just be a Schaub lover because I still dont get the lack of arm or lack of velocity. Schaub would benefit grealty from better footwork but his arm is fine. Im not sure if you dont rate Schaub as "good" where the rest of the league would fall
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not only does he have a weak arm but he also has huge accuracy problems. but schaub's biggest problem is his decision making which is very very suspect yet he's in a system where its very qb friendly, has a great pro bowl laden offensive line, a great reciever, very good tight end, great running back(s) yet he plays like everything is crumbling around him.

people who like to bring up his 4,000 yard capabilities as a reason why he's actually very good or good dont understand that 4,000 yards is the new 3,000.

its like a running back bragging about gaining 1,000 yards. almost everybody gets 4,000 yards passing and 1,000 yards running.
 
Jules Winnfield said:
not only does he have a weak arm but he also has huge accuracy problems. but schaub's biggest problem is his decision making which is very very suspect yet he's in a system where its very qb friendly, has a great pro bowl laden offensive line, a great reciever, very good tight end, great running back(s) yet he plays like everything is crumbling around him.

people who like to bring up his 4,000 yard capabilities as a reason why he's actually very good or good dont understand that 4,000 yards is the new 3,000.

its like a running back bragging about gaining 1,000 yards. almost everybody gets 4,000 yards passing and 1,000 yards running.
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It looks like 11 players had 4k yards last season. those not on the list Eli, Cam, Flacco, Dalton , Rivers, Weeden, Griffin etc

2011 it was 10 matt missed out but was on pace for 3966
2010 it was 5 matt was #4
2009 it was 10 with matt #1
2008 it was 6
2007 it was 7
2006 it was 5


almost everyone doesnt fit here
 
Jules Winnfield said:
people who like to bring up his 4,000 yard capabilities as a reason why he's actually very good or good dont understand that 4,000 yards is the new 3,000.
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There was a time where consistently throwing 3000 yards a season meant you had a starter. There were several guys who could start 16 games, but not crack 3000 yards. There were other guys who would get pulled & never have the opportunity to throw for 3000 yards, because they were so bad.

Matt's been throwing for 4,000 since he's been a starter, barring injury, which I believe is still a major concern.

So, in this case, throwing for 4,000 yards says exactly that about Matt Schaub, he's a quality starter. Does that mean he can win a Super Bowl? Hell no, but don't act like garbage QBs are throwing for 4,000 yards.
 
Jules Winnfield said:
people who like to bring up his 4,000 yard capabilities as a reason why he's actually very good or good dont understand that 4,000 yards is the new 3,000.
Click to expand...

There was a time where consistently throwing 3000 yards a season meant you had a starter. There were several guys who could start 16 games, but not crack 3000 yards. There were other guys who would get pulled & never have the opportunity to throw for 3000 yards, because they were so bad.

Matt's been throwing for 4,000 since he's been a starter, barring injury, which I believe is still a major concern.

So, in this case, throwing for 4,000 yards says exactly that about Matt Schaub, he's a quality starter. Does that mean he can win a Super Bowl? Hell no, but don't act like garbage QBs are throwing for 4,000 yards.

& as far as rushing for 1,000 yards for a RB. It's never been a big deal. Being able to rush for 1,000 yards for multiple seasons is the hallmark of a great RB.
 
2012Champs said:
It looks like 11 players had 4k yards last season. those not on the list Eli, Cam, Flacco, Dalton , Rivers, Weeden, Griffin etc

2011 it was 10 matt missed out but was on pace for 3966
2010 it was 5 matt was #4
2009 it was 10 with matt #1
2008 it was 6
2007 it was 7
2006 it was 5


almost everyone doesnt fit here
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the league is trending towards 4,000 yards passing becoming an increasing regularity. the rule changes are favoring the offense more than ever.
 
thunderkyss said:
Matt's been throwing for 4,000 since he's been a starter, barring injury, which I believe is still a major concern.
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Schaub threw for 4000+ three times - in 2009, 2010, and 2012. A record 11 different QBs threw for 4000 yards in 2012, including Carson Palmer, Josh Freeman, and Andrew Luck. In 2010, only five QBs threw for 4000 yards, with guys like Brady, Rodgers, Roethlisberger, and Romo missing the cut. In 2009, ten QBs threw for 4000 yards. There have been 48 total 4000-yd seasons in NFL history, and 36 of them have happened in the last four years. So it's pretty clear that the game has changed so that 4000 yards is not nearly as impressive as it used to be. Incidentally, Namath was the first ever 4000-yd passer, back in 1967.

I'd be more interested in a points per yard stat, or something to that effect, and how it translates to winning.

http://www.profootballhof.com/history/release.aspx?release_id=1330
http://www.profootballhof.com/history/2012/12/31/4000-yard-seasons-by-quarterback/
 
eriadoc said:
Schaub threw for 4000+ three times - in 2009, 2010, and 2012. A record 11 different QBs threw for 4000 yards in 2012, including Carson Palmer, Josh Freeman, and Andrew Luck. In 2010, only five QBs threw for 4000 yards, with guys like Brady, Rodgers, Roethlisberger, and Romo missing the cut. In 2009, ten QBs threw for 4000 yards. There have been 48 total 4000-yd seasons in NFL history, and 36 of them have happened in the last four years. So it's pretty clear that the game has changed so that 4000 yards is not nearly as impressive as it used to be. Incidentally, Namath was the first ever 4000-yd passer, back in 1967.

I'd be more interested in a points per yard stat, or something to that effect, and how it translates to winning.

http://www.profootballhof.com/history/release.aspx?release_id=1330
http://www.profootballhof.com/history/2012/12/31/4000-yard-seasons-by-quarterback/
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thank you.
 
eriadoc said:
So it's pretty clear that the game has changed so that 4000 yards is not nearly as impressive as it used to be.
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I didn't disagree with that at all.


But not being "nearly as impressive" & not being "impressive" are two totally different things.
 
thunderkyss said:
But not being "nearly as impressive" & not being "impressive" are two totally different things.
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OK, let's go with less impressive every year, approaching not impressive. This is where the eyeball test comes into play. Example - Dan Marino is widely regarded as one of the best passers of all time, even though his team didn't have much success. He passed for 4000 yards six times, back when it really was impressive. Dan Fouts passed for 4000 yards back in the late '70s and early '80s three straight times. Joe Montana never passed for 4000 yards.

I just don't put stock in milestone numbers like that, so I'm not impressed by them as a standalone stat. When the yards are directly contributing to wins, then I take notice. Schaub threw for 4770 yards in '09, and a lot of them were garbage yards. Hey, he still threw them, so good on him. But there aren't many people in the world that regard that season as great. With 4000 yards fast becoming the new standard, it's even less impressive than I felt before. Factor in the fact that a team's system and unique circumstances may artificially inflate or deflate that number (see: Montana), and I just don't find much value in the 4000 yard mark by itself, which is how it always seems to be used in debates like this.
 
The eye ball test:

Schaub has improved his footwork as I wanted him to; that is not to say he's ever pretty.
The ball fake off the play action is probably among the best.
His roll-out will never be great since he's not mobile.

He has gotten rid of the long-winded throwing motion.

He does not hold on to the ball too long anymore, and therefore taking fewer sacks.

His TD/INT has been better as compared to the first 4 years of his career.

His air yard per attempt over the last 4 years ranks somewhere between top 5 to top 10.

He's not horrendous in the red zone (14 TDs vs 1 INT).

Again, Schaub is not great; he's not even "very good", but he's quite good, all I'm saying. Still somewhere between top 10-15 for me.
 
eriadoc said:
OK, let's go with less impressive every year, approaching not impressive. This is where the eyeball test comes into play. Example - Dan Marino is widely regarded as one of the best passers of all time, even though his team didn't have much success. He passed for 4000 yards six times, back when it really was impressive. Dan Fouts passed for 4000 yards back in the late '70s and early '80s three straight times. Joe Montana never passed for 4000 yards.

I just don't put stock in milestone numbers like that, so I'm not impressed by them as a standalone stat. When the yards are directly contributing to wins, then I take notice. Schaub threw for 4770 yards in '09, and a lot of them were garbage yards. Hey, he still threw them, so good on him. But there aren't many people in the world that regard that season as great. With 4000 yards fast becoming the new standard, it's even less impressive than I felt before. Factor in the fact that a team's system and unique circumstances may artificially inflate or deflate that number (see: Montana), and I just don't find much value in the 4000 yard mark by itself, which is how it always seems to be used in debates like this.
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lets just say more people are hitting 4k but Jules said almost everyone gets 4k which isnt nearly the case
 
eriadoc said:
Schaub threw for 4000+ three times - in 2009, 2010, and 2012. A record 11 different QBs threw for 4000 yards in 2012, including Carson Palmer, Josh Freeman, and Andrew Luck. In 2010, only five QBs threw for 4000 yards, with guys like Brady, Rodgers, Roethlisberger, and Romo missing the cut. In 2009, ten QBs threw for 4000 yards. There have been 48 total 4000-yd seasons in NFL history, and 36 of them have happened in the last four years. So it's pretty clear that the game has changed so that 4000 yards is not nearly as impressive as it used to be. Incidentally, Namath was the first ever 4000-yd passer, back in 1967.

I'd be more interested in a points per yard stat, or something to that effect, and how it translates to winning.

http://www.profootballhof.com/history/release.aspx?release_id=1330
http://www.profootballhof.com/history/2012/12/31/4000-yard-seasons-by-quarterback/
Click to expand...

Not to be nit picking or anything, but, I don't think you have the stats quite right. According to the website you listed, it's not "48 total 4000-yd seasons" it's 48 total QB's who have thrown for 4000 yards, a total of 110 times. Here's the quote from the website:
Overall, there have been 48 different quarterbacks who've passed for 4,000 yards in a season. The group has combined to do so 110 times.
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So that dilutes the accomplishment even further! :smiliepalm:
 
If you want to go into the numbers, Schaub could have 5 straight seasons with over 4,000 yards...
if you prorate the numbers from 2008 and 2011.

In 2008, Schaub played only 11 games.

In 2011, Schaub played 10 games, but he only attempted 3 passes in the second half of the 10 games due to the injury sustained in the first half.
And there's the Titans game, for example, when we were way ahead and Schaub only attempted 5 passes in the second half.
 
Insideop said:
Not to be nit picking or anything, but, I don't think you have the stats quite right. According to the website you listed, it's not "48 total 4000-yd seasons" it's 48 total QB's who have thrown for 4000 yards, a total of 110 times. Here's the quote from the website:


So that dilutes the accomplishment even further! :smiliepalm:
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In 2009, Schaub threw for 4770 yards.

Since then, with the changes in the rules, that's down to 14th. But at the time, only Dan Marino, Drew Brees, Kurt Warner, Tom Brady and Dan Fouts had thrown for more. That's good company to be in.

He's not a bad QB. Not great, but good enough to get the job done.
 
The Pencil Neck said:
In 2009, Schaub threw for 4770 yards.

Since then, with the changes in the rules, that's down to 14th. But at the time, only Dan Marino, Drew Brees, Kurt Warner, Tom Brady and Dan Fouts had thrown for more. That's good company to be in.

He's not a bad QB. Not great, but good enough to get the job done.
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And Schaub did it with "greats" like Kevin Walter, Jacoby Jones, and David Anderson. Heck, Vonta Leach even caught 20 balls that year and the team's leading rusher had only 437 yards.
 
Everyone is complaining about schaub, and if you don't think he's a top 5 QB I agree but the kid can play. Take a look at the QBs that you consider to be better than him. Look at the WR corps they have. Hell take flacco. Boldin is a beast, not Andre beastly but a beast. Between him and Jacoby? Torry smith >>>> Kevin Walter. How many QBs that you think are better than schaub have worse or even comperable receivers? Schaub may be a borderline 10 qb but it is hard to argue that our receivers are not bottom 10. I would love to see a NT or ILB but received is our first second and third need. To ***** about Schaub without realizing that he has thrown for an average of 270 ypg over the last 4 years to Andre Owen and nobody special is just flat asinine.

There isn't a qb that is in the top 5 that doesn't have at least 4 or 5 legitimate targets. And as great as Andre is he can't make up for the lack of targets. If you only have two options to throw to I don't care how good they are they can be covered. How many receiving corps would you NOT take over ours? I'm guessing that outside of Seattle that there isn't a playoff team whos receiving corps I wouldn't trade for ours.



Mike
 
eriadoc said:
OK, let's go with less impressive every year, approaching not impressive. This is where the eyeball test comes into play. Example - Dan Marino is widely regarded as one of the best passers of all time, even though his team didn't have much success. He passed for 4000 yards six times, back when it really was impressive. Dan Fouts passed for 4000 yards back in the late '70s and early '80s three straight times. Joe Montana never passed for 4000 yards.

I just don't put stock in milestone numbers like that, so I'm not impressed by them as a standalone stat. When the yards are directly contributing to wins, then I take notice. Schaub threw for 4770 yards in '09, and a lot of them were garbage yards. Hey, he still threw them, so good on him. But there aren't many people in the world that regard that season as great. With 4000 yards fast becoming the new standard, it's even less impressive than I felt before. Factor in the fact that a team's system and unique circumstances may artificially inflate or deflate that number (see: Montana), and I just don't find much value in the 4000 yard mark by itself, which is how it always seems to be used in debates like this.
Click to expand...

If Schaub fails your eyeball test, just say so. Nothing wrong with that. Just because 4000 yards is "fast becoming the standard" doesn't make it any less impressive today. "Becoming" being the operative word here.

He chokes.

He's not a leader of men.

He's not a winner.

I don't care how many yards he's thrown for, but 4000 yards is impressive. 4000 yards in every season he's played 16 games... that's impressive. Being on track to throw for 4000 in the years he didn't play 16 games, that's impressive.

20 years from now, probably not impressive at all. Today..... impressive.

He's got the ability to be an elite QB. But he's not elite. Won't ever be. Has nothing to do with his mobility, his arm, or his decision making. He's a choker.
 
thunderkyss said:
If Schaub fails your eyeball test, just say so. Nothing wrong with that. Just because 4000 yards is "fast becoming the standard" doesn't make it any less impressive today. "Becoming" being the operative word here.

He chokes.

He's not a leader of men.

He's not a winner.

I don't care how many yards he's thrown for, but 4000 yards is impressive. 4000 yards in every season he's played 16 games... that's impressive. Being on track to throw for 4000 in the years he didn't play 16 games, that's impressive.

20 years from now, probably not impressive at all. Today..... impressive.

He's got the ability to be an elite QB. But he's not elite. Won't ever be. Has nothing to do with his mobility, his arm, or his decision making. He's a choker.
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He chokes? That is a wild assertion that barely has any credibility. Did Andre choke when he dropped that pass? What about Casey? Walter? On the first be game kj trys to scoop and run instead of just fall on the fumble. Quinn dropped a sure INT. In years past how many times did he put us in game tying/winning positions only to have the defense blow it? The 46 second 96 yard march by Sanchez anyone?

By the way, flacco was a choke artist until this year.

Mike
 
Texanmike02 said:
He chokes? That is a wild assertion that barely has any credibility. Did Andre choke when he dropped that pass? What about Casey? Walter? On the first be game kj trys to scoop and run instead of just fall on the fumble. Quinn dropped a sure INT. In years past how many times did he put us in game tying/winning positions only to have the defense blow it? The 46 second 96 yard march by Sanchez anyone?

By the way, flacco was a choke artist until this year.

Mike
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Yes, yes, yes, yes, yes, yes......... doesn't matter, we didn't win. It sucks being the QB, but at this level, winning is all that matters.

& I agree. If crappy Flacco can do it, anyone can.


But not Matt. Not in Houston.

Wish I could explain it, but I can't. But I'm not going to tell you he sucks because he's thrown for 4000 yards or was on track to throw for 4000 yards in the last 5 seasons. That makes less sense than my, "Anyone but Schaub can do it" argument.
 
thunderkyss said:
Yes, yes, yes, yes, yes, yes......... doesn't matter, we didn't win. It sucks being the QB, but at this level, winning is all that matters.

& I agree. If crappy Flacco can do it, anyone can.


But not Matt. Not in Houston.

Wish I could explain it, but I can't. But I'm not going to tell you he sucks because he's thrown for 4000 yards or was on track to throw for 4000 yards in the last 5 seasons. That makes less sense than my, "Anyone but Schaub can do it" argument.
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Well Manning was considered a choke artist form almost a decade. You just can't convince me that we can't win the big one with Schaub. Maybe we don't but of doesn't fall on just Schaub. It is a team sport. It is like saying a defense can't won the SB with JJ Watt, who has had twice as many cracks as Schaub. Or maybe with Cushing or Andre. Not exactly the same I guess but you get the point. I think we are a lot further from having SB caliber WRs than we are a SB caliber QB. Swap our receivers for Flaccos and they don't win an SB either.

Mike
 
thunderkyss said:
If Schaub fails your eyeball test, just say so. Nothing wrong with that. Just because 4000 yards is "fast becoming the standard" doesn't make it any less impressive today.
Click to expand...

I'm not impressed. I'll just put it that way. And it isn't that he fails, per se. I'm not calling Schaub a scrub. He's a good QB. I don't personally believe he's good enough, but that doesn't mean he's bad. As for the stat, well there are the 4000 yard seasons by guys like Don Majkowski, Jeff George, Jay Schroeder, Jake Plummer, Scott Mitchell, Bill Kenney, Steve Beurlein and Matt Schaub. Then there are the 4000 yard seasons by guys like Manning, Marino, Young, Favre, Brees, and Rodgers.
 
eriadoc said:
I'm not impressed. I'll just put it that way. And it isn't that he fails, per se. I'm not calling Schaub a scrub. He's a good QB. I don't personally believe he's good enough, but that doesn't mean he's bad. As for the stat, well there are the 4000 yard seasons by guys like Don Majkowski, Jeff George, Jay Schroeder, Jake Plummer, Scott Mitchell, Bill Kenney, Steve Beurlein and Matt Schaub. Then there are the 4000 yard seasons by guys like Manning, Marino, Young, Favre, Brees, and Rodgers.
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1. Don Majkowski: He put up 1 4000 yard season in a 10 year career.

2. Jeff George: He put up 1 4000 yard season in an 11 year career. (Although he led the league in passing one year with just over 3900)

3. Jay Schroeder: Put up 1 4000 yard season in a 10 year career. In that season, he was throwing to Gary Clark and Art Monk. Great receivers.

4. Jake Plummer: Put up 1 4000 yard season in a 10 year career.

5. Scott Mitchell: Put up 1 4000 yard season in an 11 year career. Had a couple of great receivers AND Barry Sanders.

6. Bill Kenney: Put up 1 4000 yard season in a 9 year career.

7. Steve Beuerlein: Put up 1 4000 yard season in a 14 year career. (I have to admit, I always expected this guy to blossom into a great QB.)

8. Matt Schaub: Put up 3 4000 yard seasons so far in a 9 year career. Including a season with over 4700 yards (something none of those other guys have done.)

One of these 8 QBs is not like the other 7.

You might not like him or the way he plays, but he's a good QB. Can he get it done? Of course he can.

He's not going to make insane throws. He's not going to wow you with his athletic prowess.

He's got room for improvement and I don't think he's hit his ceiling, yet. But even so, with the right pieces around him, he can get it done.
 
eriadoc said:
Schaub threw for 4000+ three times - in 2009, 2010, and 2012. A record 11 different QBs threw for 4000 yards in 2012, including Carson Palmer, Josh Freeman, and Andrew Luck. In 2010, only five QBs threw for 4000 yards, with guys like Brady, Rodgers, Roethlisberger, and Romo missing the cut. In 2009, ten QBs threw for 4000 yards. There have been 48 total 4000-yd seasons in NFL history, and 36 of them have happened in the last four years. So it's pretty clear that the game has changed so that 4000 yards is not nearly as impressive as it used to be. Incidentally, Namath was the first ever 4000-yd passer, back in 1967.

I'd be more interested in a points per yard stat, or something to that effect, and how it translates to winning.

http://www.profootballhof.com/history/release.aspx?release_id=1330
http://www.profootballhof.com/history/2012/12/31/4000-yard-seasons-by-quarterback/
Click to expand...

That is some great stuff you dug up Eriadoc. The game has definately changed. I got the old You must spread rep.
 
eriadoc said:
By missing that, you seem to have missed the very point of my post.
Click to expand...

When I say he's a good QB, I mean he's good enough to win a Super Bowl. When you say he's a good QB, you mean he can't win a Super Bowl. Right?

Your tried to counter the stat argument by implying that putting up 4000 yards in a season doesn't make you anything more than a Don Majkowski or a Bill Kenney. And that's true, as far as it goes. My counter to that point is that while some guys were able to put together a single good season, those guys you mentioned weren't able to put them together year after year like Schaub has. You were trying to lump Schaub in with those guys but he doesn't fit. He's better than those guys.
 
When you compare personnel around Flacco and Schaub, it's easier to see why Flacco won a super bowl.

Schaub has Foster, Andre Johnson, Owen Daniels as his main go-to guys. You can talk about Casey, Walter, Posey/Martin/Jean but they didn't factor in as much as the big 3.

Flacco had Boldin, Torrey Smith and a good Jacoby Jones. Also had Ray Rice, Vonta Leach blocking, Dennis Pitta, etc. Flacco, IMO, had much better of a supporting cast. You had to cover Jones, Smith and Boldin down the field on any given play. You had to account for Ray Rice running the ball or off of the screen pass.

With the Texans, you had to cover Andre down the field. You had to worrry about Foster cutting the corner, and you had to cover Daniels over the middle. Other than that, there wasn't too much of a threat from the offense.

I really think if you give a few more weapons to Schaub offensively, you spread the field and really allow for the offense to shine. But if you are only relying on Andre for catches past 15 yards, it's hard for any sort of vertical offense to take place.
 
The Pencil Neck said:
When I say he's a good QB, I mean he's good enough to win a Super Bowl. When you say he's a good QB, you mean he can't win a Super Bowl. Right?
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Meh, sort of. Joe Flacco won a Super Bowl. Brad Johnson was good enough to win a Super Bowl. Gus Frerotte was good enough to win a Super Bowl. Phil Simms and Jeff Hostetler both won Super Bowls. They were all good QBs, at least in the season that they won those Super Bowls. But they couldn't have been one of the primary catalysts to that Super Bowl win on a year to year basis. I don't think Schaub is good enough that he can compensate for shortages elsewhere ont he team. It's a tough subject, because I don't think he's a bad QB, and it's a team game, but I don't have confidence that he's going to do something to win the game when it's on the line like I do/did with lots of other QBs - think Staubach, Montana, the current crop of top notch QBs, etc. So basically what it boils down to is do I think Schaub can pull off a Brad Johnson year? Well, sure. Do I think the team can feel 100% confident in its QB position and count on him to win games? Not at all.

Your tried to counter the stat argument by implying that putting up 4000 yards in a season doesn't make you anything more than a Don Majkowski or a Bill Kenney.
Click to expand...

Not exactly. I'm saying there are gradations to that achievement. Schaub's 4770 yard season was one of the highest totals of all time when it happened, and I kind of shrugged my shoulders and said "meh". The team went 6-10 and he racked up a bunch of yards when it didn't matter. IIRC, that was the year that they scored 7 or fewer points in the first half ten times. The defense was awful, but Schaub was lucky to throw a TD in the first half. So when they came out slinging in the second half, what are you going to say? That he was great? The other team was playing bend don't break and trying not to lose a 3TD lead. I don't rank that 4000 yard season on par with some of the really great 4000 yard seasons. Sorry, not impressed. The fact that he's put up 4000 yards three times is good, but that is to a great degree because of the offense and the era. I feel like Jake Plummer could come from a team where he never put up 4000 yards and hit that in Kubiak's offense. Wait, he did.

Anyway, I'm really not trying to bag on Schaub, but I feel like there are gradations in 4000 yard seasons, and Schaub's middle of the pack, IMO, and the number is fast becoming the standard.
 
eriadoc said:
Not exactly. I'm saying there are gradations to that achievement. Schaub's 4770 yard season was one of the highest totals of all time when it happened, and I kind of shrugged my shoulders and said "meh". The team went 6-10 and he racked up a bunch of yards when it didn't matter. IIRC, that was the year that they scored 7 or fewer points in the first half ten times. The defense was awful, but Schaub was lucky to throw a TD in the first half. So when they came out slinging in the second half, what are you going to say? That he was great? The other team was playing bend don't break and trying not to lose a 3TD lead. I don't rank that 4000 yard season on par with some of the really great 4000 yard seasons. Sorry, not impressed. The fact that he's put up 4000 yards three times is good, but that is to a great degree because of the offense and the era. I feel like Jake Plummer could come from a team where he never put up 4000 yards and hit that in Kubiak's offense. Wait, he did.

Anyway, I'm really not trying to bag on Schaub, but I feel like there are gradations in 4000 yard seasons, and Schaub's middle of the pack, IMO, and the number is fast becoming the standard.
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Yeah, well sometimes stat haters need to check what your eyes are telling you.

2009

1st half - 2658 yds, 19 TD's - passer rating 109.3
2nd half - 2112 yds, 10 TD's

3071 yds and 20 TD's when the margin was 7 or less.
1023 yds and 3 TD's when then margin was over 2 TD's much less your 3 TD assertion.

Sorry, your eyes were wrong.
 
infantrycak said:
Yeah, well sometimes stat haters need to check what your eyes are telling you.

2009

1st half - 2658 yds, 19 TD's - passer rating 109.3
2nd half - 2112 yds, 10 TD's

3071 yds and 20 TD's when the margin was 7 or less.
1023 yds and 3 TD's when then margin was over 2 TD's much less your 3 TD assertion.

Sorry, your eyes were wrong.
Click to expand...

It's not eyes, it's memory. That what the IIRC was for. So since you posted those stats,that means 2010 was the year to which I referred. In '09, they fell apart in the 2nd half, but in '10 it was the first half. Back to back years they couldn't put a complete game together.
 
How did we get so far down this 4,000-yd rabbit trail? Those stats don't necessarily translate into championships. As an example, Peyton Manning has the most 4,000+ seasons of any QB in history, 12.
TWELVE!
Yet having a dozen 4,000-yd seasons has only netted him ONE RING. And goodness knows he had weapons around him.

On the other hand, both Joe Montana and Terry Bradshaw have four rings apiece and yet NEITHER of them is a member of this 4,000-yd passing club (at least according to the site eriadoc pointed us to). You know what the DID have? Pretty damned good supporting casts around them and pretty damned good defenses for when they had off days.

I think we have a pretty damned good defense. However, we could add a couple more pieces to a pretty decent supporting cast.

I'm of the same mindset as TPN (or TexasMike or whoever); you gotta have a good TEAM to win it all. Having a 4,000-yd QB means squat if you don't.
:twocents:
 
ObsiWan said:
How did we get so far down this 4,000-yd rabbit trail? Those stats don't necessarily translate into championships. As an example, Peyton Manning has the most 4,000+ seasons of any QB in history, 12.
TWELVE!
Yet having a dozen 4,000-yd seasons has only netted him ONE RING. And goodness knows he had weapons around him.

On the other hand, both Joe Montana and Terry Bradshaw have four rings apiece and yet NEITHER of them is a member of this 4,000-yd passing club (at least according to the site eriadoc pointed us to). You know what the DID have? Pretty damned good supporting casts around them and pretty damned good defenses for when they had off days.

I think we have a pretty damned good defense. However, we could add a couple more pieces to a pretty decent supporting cast.

I'm of the same mindset as TPN (or TexasMike or whoever); you gotta have a good TEAM to win it all. Having a 4,000-yd QB means squat if you don't.
:twocents:
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^^^^ This.

I think 4000 yard seasons (especially multiple 4000 yard seasons) are a good indicator that the QB is a good QB. If you've got a QB who can consistently throw for over 4000 yards and do it without throwing a lot of interceptions or making a lot of mental mistakes, then that piece of your team isn't what's holding you back.
 
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