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The Myth of the Long Ball & Matt Schaub

infantrycak

Hall of Fame
So it has been customary of late to slag Schaub's arm whenever any WR is brought up. Latest example Mike Wallace - well he is too fast for Schaub. So decided to look at what we were missing out on. Since Wallace was what brought this up I looked up Big Ben first but below are some other prominent QB's (when I say thrown I mean in the air, not the result of the play):

Big Ben - 17 attempts, 4 completions, 23.5%. (3 completions over 40 yards thrown)
Peyton - 20 attempts, 7 completions, 35% (no completions over 40 yards thrown)
Brady - 19 attempts, 6 completions, 31.5% (no completions over 40 yards thrown)
Flacco - 38 attempts, 8 completions, 21% (2 completions over 40 yards thrown)
Brees - 32 attempts, 12 completions, 37.5% (4 completions over 40 yards thrown)
Rodgers - 13 attempts, 5 completions, 38% (1 completion over 40 yards thrown)

Schaub - 17 attempts, 6 completions, 35% (3 completions over 40 yards thrown)

Here's the kicker for you. All but one of those QB's had 3 TD's which were thrown over 30 yds - that was Brees with 4.

By the way that means these QB's attempted throws over 30 yds 3.9% of the time.

But what the hell, stats are meaningless.
 
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otisbean

Veteran
Contributor's Club
If Schaub has an issue with deep balls its that he waits a tad too long to release the ball. Maybe some would disagree, but I'd rather see a WR have to wait a bit on a deep ball but end up with a completion then watch open Wrs get over thrown
 

thunderkyss

Just win baby!!!
Staff member
Contributor's Club
Yeah, the Schaub hate around has got to be driven by emotions. Schaub has his faults, but most of the criticism lately haven't been hitting on them.

Flacco - 38 attempts, 8 completions, 21% (2 completions over 40 yards thrown)
I mentioned this in another thread & these numbers bear it out. Flacco attempts way too many low percentage passes.... & this is only counting balls thrown over 40 yards. & here, only connecting on 2 of them is kinda like Dwight Howard at the free throw line.
 

thunderkyss

Just win baby!!!
Staff member
Contributor's Club
If Schaub has an issue with deep balls its that he waits a tad too long to release the ball. Maybe some would disagree, but I'd rather see a WR have to wait a bit on a deep ball but end up with a completion then watch open Wrs get over thrown
If we're talking about new receivers, I completely agree. Anything to increase the chance of a reception & moving the chains.

But.... if we're talking about guys he's been throwing to since 2006 (Andre, OD, Walter), he should be able to lead them with a high level of accuracy, I would think. Other QBs, like Peyton obviously doesn't need 6 years to get his timing down.

Open is open & if we're talking about guys like Andre & OD, you're costing yourself Touch downs. Maybe not on the 40 yards in the air passes, but on your 15 & 20 yarders that should turn into 30 & 40 yard gains.
 
I predict this thread will garner all the attention of grandmother in a bikini contest - the cool kids just don't want to hear this stuff.
 
Stats don't lie, but when there are only seventeen in the population group, it makes since that you can review each instance individually.

From watching the Texans, I think Schaub either doesn't have the arm or throws too late, or a combination of both.

Maybe the completion of the long balls are because of the wide receivers despite Schaub?

I think Schaub is a good QB, but has areas of improvement, such as stretching out defenses. I don't think defensive coordinators are concerned about Schaub throwing the long ball.
 

texan279

Hall of Fame
So it has been customary of late to slag Schaub's arm whenever any WR is brought up. Latest example Mike Wallace - well he is too fast for Schaub. So decided to look at what we were missing out on. Since Wallace was what brought this up I looked up Big Ben first but below are some other prominent QB's (when I say thrown I mean in the air, not the result of the play):

Big Ben - 17 attempts, 4 completions, 23.5%. (3 completions over 40 yards thrown)
Peyton - 20 attempts, 7 completions, 35% (no completions over 40 yards thrown)
Brady - 19 attempts, 6 completions, 31.5% (no completions over 40 yards thrown)
Flacco - 38 attempts, 8 completions, 21% (2 completions over 40 yards thrown)
Brees - 32 attempts, 12 completions, 37.5% (4 completions over 40 yards thrown)
Rodgers - 13 attempts, 5 completions, 38% (1 completion over 40 yards thrown)

Schaub - 17 attempts, 6 completions, 35% (3 completions over 40 yards thrown)

Here's the kicker for you. All but one of those QB's had 3 TD's which were thrown over 30 yds - that was Brees with 4.

By the way that means these QB's attempted throws over 30 yds 3.9% of the time.

But what the hell, stats are meaningless.

MSR. Excellent post.
 

thunderkyss

Just win baby!!!
Staff member
Contributor's Club
I think Schaub is a good QB, but has areas of improvement, such as stretching out defenses. I don't think defensive coordinators are concerned about Schaub throwing the long ball.
From what we've seen, you might be right. But Schaub has made them pay many times.
 

Texan_Bill

Hall of Fame
So it has been customary of late to slag Schaub's arm whenever any WR is brought up. Latest example Mike Wallace - well he is too fast for Schaub. So decided to look at what we were missing out on. Since Wallace was what brought this up I looked up Big Ben first but below are some other prominent QB's (when I say thrown I mean in the air, not the result of the play):

Big Ben - 17 attempts, 4 completions, 23.5%. (3 completions over 40 yards thrown)
Peyton - 20 attempts, 7 completions, 35% (no completions over 40 yards thrown)
Brady - 19 attempts, 6 completions, 31.5% (no completions over 40 yards thrown)
Flacco - 38 attempts, 8 completions, 21% (2 completions over 40 yards thrown)
Brees - 32 attempts, 12 completions, 37.5% (4 completions over 40 yards thrown)
Rodgers - 13 attempts, 5 completions, 38% (1 completion over 40 yards thrown)

Schaub - 17 attempts, 6 completions, 35% (3 completions over 40 yards thrown)

Here's the kicker for you. All but one of those QB's had 3 TD's which were thrown over 30 yds - that was Brees with 4.

By the way that means these QB's attempted throws over 30 yds 3.9% of the time.

But what the hell, stats are meaningless.
If Schaub has an issue with deep balls its that he waits a tad too long to release the ball. Maybe some would disagree, but I'd rather see a WR have to wait a bit on a deep ball but end up with a completion then watch open Wrs get over thrown
I heard a very interesting interview (a while back) with none other than Dante Pastorini, who BTW had a very strong arm. He suggested that it wasn't Schaub's arm strength as it was as much as his footwork and his progressions.. He suggested that Schaub commits a little too much to progressions rather than commit to the deep ball. Dan went on to say (and I'm paraphrasing here) that if Schaub committed to throwing the deep ball as the first option, he (Schaub) could make the throw. Dan went onto say (again, paraphrasing) that people that think Schaub has a weak arm, just don't know what they're watching..

I believe Dan.
 

infantrycak

Hall of Fame
Maybe the completion of the long balls are because of the wide receivers despite Schaub?
I see WR's save QB's all over the league. Eli Manning got his first ring because of one. As far as I am concerned the Ravens are DOA without Boldin in the playoffs. Flacco frequently wing and a prayered the ball which is not something Schaub generally does. Plus remember, we only have one WR right?

Your timing comment and Bill's/Pastorini's has more merit to me than the whole arm strength thing.
 
the problem is almost all of schaubs deep throws are off of play action and augmented with threatening running game.

THOSE ARE IDEAL LONG PASSING PLAYS AND YET SCHAUB STILL HAS TROUBLE MAKING THEM.

Some of those guys on those list they dont always work off of play action because of their respective system. Schaub will only throw the long ball if its the play his twin brother gary calls. Conservative gary will only choose long passing plays if its ideal and needed. Those other guys, their degree of difficulty is much greater than schaub. Throwing the deep ball is just one of many problems with matt schaub.

In the analytics era, you can pull out any statistic and make any point you want seem truthful.

Nice moral victory thread and this proves once again how delusional houstonians are with their quarterback.

This is why we got stuck with david carr for so long. Houstonians and the front office were gutless and refused to see what they had in front of them. They kept on making rationalizations instead of making an honest analytical decision and move on from the situation.

Its happening again with schaub.

You people deserve matt schaub and gary kubiak.
 
I see WR's save QB's all over the league. Eli Manning got his first ring because of one. As far as I am concerned the Ravens are DOA without Boldin in the playoffs. Flacco frequently wing and a prayered the ball which is not something Schaub generally does. Plus remember, we only have one WR right?

Your timing comment and Bill's/Pastorini's has more merit to me than the whole arm strength thing.
Maybe the timing issue is really about Kubiak's system and play calling?

Kubiak's system does not seem to allow for artistry in the QB position, but a methodical and predictable approach.

From what I see with my own eyes, and stats are not going to persuade me otherwise, the Texans have a problem with the deep ball.
 

ATXtexanfan

Hall of Fame
Jules said it best. Schaub doesn't pass the eyeball test anymore. What did kubiak say. He's won like 75% of his starts last few years. So what. Just a stat
 

Nawzer

Alienz
Numbers don't lie, but they don't always tell the whole truth. I don't know if it's his arm strength or if he's not technically right, but he's nowhere as good as some of the other QBs. In this instance "seeing is believing" saying applies to me. You only have to look at that Colts game where he fluttered a pass that was picked off and then overthrew AJ for another pick. Even when he does get the ball deep, the receiver almost always has to slow down and reach back to make the catches. Schaub is who he is and I've accepted that fact. The key to next season will be whether or not Kubiak will change his offense and be more up tempo. If he can do that successfully we'll be fine as an offense and should be in the playoffs again, but beyond that I don't know.
 

dalemurphy

Hall of Fame
Numbers don't lie, but they don't always tell the whole truth. I don't know if it's his arm strength or if he's not technically right, but he's nowhere as good as some of the other QBs. In this instance "seeing is believing" saying applies to me. You only have to look at that Colts game where he fluttered a pass that was picked off and then overthrew AJ for another pick. Even when he does get the ball deep, the receiver almost always has to slow down and reach back to make the catches. Schaub is who he is and I've accepted that fact. The key to next season will be whether or not Kubiak will change his offense and be more up tempo. If he can do that successfully we'll be fine as an offense and should be in the playoffs again, but beyond that I don't know.
Schaub looked great until December. He looked bad after that. I don't know why. Perhaps it was his foot... Some of his underthrows late in the year were inexplicable, and it did appear he could not drive the ball like he usually can (not that he has a gun). Hopefully, it was an injury that can/will heal or some other correctable issue. I'm not worried until I see those problems continue this coming year.
 

powda

The bridge between stupid and useless is short.
the problem is almost all of schaubs deep throws are off of play action and augmented with threatening running game.

THOSE ARE IDEAL LONG PASSING PLAYS AND YET SCHAUB STILL HAS TROUBLE MAKING THEM.

Some of those guys on those list they dont always work off of play action because of their respective system. Schaub will only throw the long ball if its the play his twin brother gary calls. Conservative gary will only choose long passing plays if its ideal and needed. Those other guys, their degree of difficulty is much greater than schaub. Throwing the deep ball is just one of many problems with matt schaub.

In the analytics era, you can pull out any statistic and make any point you want seem truthful.

Nice moral victory thread and this proves once again how delusional houstonians are with their quarterback.

This is why we got stuck with david carr for so long. Houstonians and the front office were gutless and refused to see what they had in front of them. They kept on making rationalizations instead of making an honest analytical decision and move on from the situation.

Its happening again with schaub.

You people deserve matt schaub and gary kubiak.
Rep. People can and will spin stats how they like. Watch the games.
 

eriadoc

Texan-American
If you go back and read my post in the Mike Wallace thread, I never said the word "arm". Getting the ball to the receiver (in stride) down the field has a lot more involved than just pure arm strength. Been watching Schaub underthrow receivers due to whatever bad mechanics since the very first 70 yard TD to AJ back in '07.

This year, the most telling play was when Schaub rolled out on a play action bootleg, planted, surveyed the field, had all damn day to throw it, and then underthrew Casey by at least a couple yards, for an inexcusable INT. Tell me what stat that falls under.
 

otisbean

Veteran
Contributor's Club
If we're talking about new receivers, I completely agree. Anything to increase the chance of a reception & moving the chains.

But.... if we're talking about guys he's been throwing to since 2006 (Andre, OD, Walter), he should be able to lead them with a high level of accuracy, I would think. Other QBs, like Peyton obviously doesn't need 6 years to get his timing down.

Open is open & if we're talking about guys like Andre & OD, you're costing yourself Touch downs. Maybe not on the 40 yards in the air passes, but on your 15 & 20 yarders that should turn into 30 & 40 yard gains.
I hear ya. I think he holds the ball a bit to make extra sure the guy is open, if that makes sense. Notice that he doesn't get picked too often going deep. It does cost you TDs but you also end up with 40 completions which aren't bad
 
Schaub looked great until December. He looked bad after that. I don't know why. Perhaps it was his foot... Some of his underthrows late in the year were inexplicable, and it did appear he could not drive the ball like he usually can (not that he has a gun). Hopefully, it was an injury that can/will heal or some other correctable issue. I'm not worried until I see those problems continue this coming year.

matt's accuracy has always been a problem even before his injury. Just look at the film, even short passes he has trouble making accurate throws. That's why you always see receivers having to make high difficulty catches on simple crossing patterns.

my god even his check down passes are horrible. How many times have you seen owen daniels having to make crazy catches on the account of schaub? Look at that last playoff game, horrible throw to andre in the end zone, horrible passes to casey, owen daniels where an accurate throw to a pass no longer than 20 yards would have netted a first down.

If we had a lesser tight end instead of a pro bowl caliber one, this weakness would be glaring much brighter. Even some of the throws to arian foster were ridiculously bad, that one throw vs jets or bears i think where foster had to lunge all out to grab a touch down pass just shows matt's accuracy problem.

With all that being said, matt's biggest problem is not his arm strength but his decision making. That is matt's biggest weakness IMO. He has shaky decision making, not very accurate and the problem is augmented with the fact that he's not athletic, fast, nor a playmaker.

But yes, lets sign him to a contract extension no way we can find anybody better than that. Its impossible....
 

Nawzer

Alienz
If you go back and read my post in the Mike Wallace thread, I never said the word "arm". Getting the ball to the receiver (in stride) down the field has a lot more involved than just pure arm strength. Been watching Schaub underthrow receivers due to whatever bad mechanics since the very first 70 yard TD to AJ back in '07.

This year, the most telling play was when Schaub rolled out on a play action bootleg, planted, surveyed the field, had all damn day to throw it, and then underthrew Casey by at least a couple yards, for an inexcusable INT. Tell me what stat that falls under.
That's the play I was referring to in my post too. But the game was preceded by a bunch of other ****ty performance by him and the offense.
 

Dutchrudder

Hall of Fame
So it has been customary of late to slag Schaub's arm whenever any WR is brought up. Latest example Mike Wallace - well he is too fast for Schaub. So decided to look at what we were missing out on. Since Wallace was what brought this up I looked up Big Ben first but below are some other prominent QB's (when I say thrown I mean in the air, not the result of the play):

Big Ben - 17 attempts, 4 completions, 23.5%. (3 completions over 40 yards thrown)
Peyton - 20 attempts, 7 completions, 35% (no completions over 40 yards thrown)
Brady - 19 attempts, 6 completions, 31.5% (no completions over 40 yards thrown)
Flacco - 38 attempts, 8 completions, 21% (2 completions over 40 yards thrown)
Brees - 32 attempts, 12 completions, 37.5% (4 completions over 40 yards thrown)
Rodgers - 13 attempts, 5 completions, 38% (1 completion over 40 yards thrown)

Schaub - 17 attempts, 6 completions, 35% (3 completions over 40 yards thrown)

Here's the kicker for you. All but one of those QB's had 3 TD's which were thrown over 30 yds - that was Brees with 4.

By the way that means these QB's attempted throws over 30 yds 3.9% of the time.

But what the hell, stats are meaningless.
Any idea how many INTs each of them made during these passes?
 

infantrycak

Hall of Fame
If you go back and read my post in the Mike Wallace thread, I never said the word "arm".
I didn't quote you because I wasn't trying to make it particular post - just what it lead me to look up.

This year, the most telling play was when Schaub rolled out on a play action bootleg, planted, surveyed the field, had all damn day to throw it, and then underthrew Casey by at least a couple yards, for an inexcusable INT. Tell me what stat that falls under.
He had 0 INT's on passes thrown over 30 yds (the other QB's combined for 5).

Any idea how many INTs each of them made during these passes?
I remember Brees had 3 of the 5 INT's and then two others had 1 each. Edit - Peyton and Rodgers had 1 each.

Rep. People can and will spin stats how they like. Watch the games.
I am sorry but at some point the eyeball test says more about the beholder. If these other QB's are so much better at slinging the ball, over the course of 4000 pass attempts it should be reflected. Bottom line, folks are being anti-homers on Schaub and the Texans from Rodgers not even attempting to throw the ball down field as much to Flacco being wildly inaccurate with his big gun of an arm. I would have bet money people's eyes would have said Rodgers threw down field more often and Flacco was more accurate.
 
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dalemurphy

Hall of Fame
matt's accuracy has always been a problem even before his injury. Just look at the film, even short passes he has trouble making accurate throws. That's why you always see receivers having to make high difficulty catches on simple crossing patterns.

my god even his check down passes are horrible. How many times have you seen owen daniels having to make crazy catches on the account of schaub? Look at that last playoff game, horrible throw to andre in the end zone, horrible passes to casey, owen daniels where an accurate throw to a pass no longer than 20 yards would have netted a first down.

If we had a lesser tight end instead of a pro bowl caliber one, this weakness would be glaring much brighter. Even some of the throws to arian foster were ridiculously bad, that one throw vs jets or bears i think where foster had to lunge all out to grab a touch down pass just shows matt's accuracy problem.

With all that being said, matt's biggest problem is not his arm strength but his decision making. That is matt's biggest weakness IMO. He has shaky decision making, not very accurate and the problem is augmented with the fact that he's not athletic, fast, nor a playmaker.

But yes, lets sign him to a contract extension no way we can find anybody better than that. Its impossible....
This simply isn't true. Schaub has a very long track record... college, Atlanta, and 7 years in Houston and his accuracy has never been an issue. He has always been among the leaders in completion percentage and the important stat: Yards per attempt.

You can argue that he is limited athletically, that he is brittle, etc... but arguing that he is not accurate means that you either don't know football or you have a negative bias against him that has colored your perspective.
 

Texan_Bill

Hall of Fame
I heard a very interesting interview (a while back) with none other than Dante Pastorini, who BTW had a very strong arm. He suggested that it wasn't Schaub's arm strength as it was as much as his footwork and his progressions.. He suggested that Schaub commits a little too much to progressions rather than commit to the deep ball. Dan went on to say (and I'm paraphrasing here) that if Schaub committed to throwing the deep ball as the first option, he (Schaub) could make the throw. Dan went onto say (again, paraphrasing) that people that think Schaub has a weak arm, just don't know what they're watching..

I believe Dan.
Y'all are so busy fighting amongst yourselves that none of y'all took the time to read my post about Dan Pastorini's assessement of Schaub..
 

TexanSam

Hall of Fame
Y'all are so busy fighting amongst yourselves that none of y'all took the time to read my post about Dan Pastorini's assessement of Schaub..
I don't know if committing to progressions is such a bad thing. He's make the reads and figuring out the best receiver to throw it too. Maybe he's trying too hard and overthinks plays?
 

Mr teX

Hall of Fame
Great post I-cak but u know folks here don't see the whole picture......largely b/c they don't want to. I watch every team play at least 1 game every year...and that's being conservative....every qb in the league has at 4-6 passes a game where his WR's makes him look good by catching passes that aren't quite where they should be.

Go back and look at Flacco's TD pass to a wide open Jacoby Jones behind the defense in the SB. Easy pitch and catch right? look how much Jacoby had to slow down to make that catch...if that's Schaub who makes that throw, people here are losing their minds..It was only a TD b/c Jones had the presence of mind to get back up after he fell catching the severely underthrown ball and make a few moves. The stat officially goes to both, however Jones is the guy who primarily made that happen, not Flacco.
 

mussop

Hall of Fame
But what the hell, stats are meaningless.
They aren't meaningless they just don't tell the whole story. You want to convince people who watch Schaub consistently over throw wide open WR's you're going to need more than completion percentage and passes attempted.
 

infantrycak

Hall of Fame
They aren't meaningless they just don't tell the whole story. You want to convince people who watch Schaub consistently over throw wide open WR's you're going to need more than completion percentage and passes attempted.
I didn't claim he over throws. But I will say when you look at 4000 passes, with 4 likely hall of famers and 2 other guys with SB rings and the overall efficiency comes out looking very similar then I think it is pretty damn strong evidence people's eyes/disappointment with the team are fooling them more than reality.

I am sure all 7 of the 40+ yard throws by Peyton/Brady were perfectly thrown/drops/perfectly defended/whatever freaking excuse or there would have been at least one completion and Schaub's 3 of 4 completions were all despite being a horribly inaccurate, noodle armed, backup only quality QB.

People are missing a significant reason for this thread - 30+ yard throws are rare, 40+ are hens teeth (.325% of pass attempts by high end to elite QB's).
 

Mr teX

Hall of Fame
Maybe the timing issue is really about Kubiak's system and play calling?

Kubiak's system does not seem to allow for artistry in the QB position, but a methodical and predictable approach.

From what I see with my own eyes, and stats are not going to persuade me otherwise, the Texans have a problem with the deep ball.
I tend to agree with this....Kubiak's playcalling has more to do with whats going on with schaub than people want to believe. he's conservative by nature, you have to figure that some of his coaching to Schaub has been "make the safe plays" essentially only allowing for chances to be taken throwing the ball when guys are wide open....or when we have to. And schaub's progressions are most definitely short to deep 8 out of 10 times.

Mixing things up more would also help a lot too.
 

Texan_Bill

Hall of Fame
I don't know if committing to progressions is such a bad thing. He's make the reads and figuring out the best receiver to throw it too. Maybe he's trying too hard and overthinks plays?
No.... Progression is not a bad thing at all. Pastorini was suggesting that sometimes Schaub shouldn't worry about progressions but rather trust that AJ (or whoever) would beat their man deep and commit to that throw.

cough - I specifically referenced you and him.
My bad Bro... I missed that.
 

infantrycak

Hall of Fame
I tend to agree with this....Kubiak's playcalling has more to do with whats going on with schaub than people want to believe. he's conservative by nature, you have to figure that some of his coaching to Schaub has been "make the safe plays" essentially only allowing for chances to be taken throwing the ball when guys are wide open....or when we have to. And schaub's progressions are most definitely short to deep 8 out of 10 times.

Mixing things up more would also help a lot too.
OK but if Kubiak is so conservative and Schaub is only supposed to attempt hitting wide open WR's wouldn't that lead to non-conservative folks like Manning, Brady, etc. with better WR corps having more attempts and completions?
 

mussop

Hall of Fame
So it has been customary of late to slag Schaub's arm whenever any WR is brought up. Latest example Mike Wallace - well he is too fast for Schaub. So decided to look at what we were missing out on. Since Wallace was what brought this up I looked up Big Ben first but below are some other prominent QB's (when I say thrown I mean in the air, not the result of the play):

Big Ben - 17 attempts, 4 completions, 23.5%. (3 completions over 40 yards thrown)
Peyton - 20 attempts, 7 completions, 35% (no completions over 40 yards thrown)
Brady - 19 attempts, 6 completions, 31.5% (no completions over 40 yards thrown)
Flacco - 38 attempts, 8 completions, 21% (2 completions over 40 yards thrown)
Brees - 32 attempts, 12 completions, 37.5% (4 completions over 40 yards thrown)
Rodgers - 13 attempts, 5 completions, 38% (1 completion over 40 yards thrown)

Schaub - 17 attempts, 6 completions, 35% (3 completions over 40 yards thrown)

Here's the kicker for you. All but one of those QB's had 3 TD's which were thrown over 30 yds - that was Brees with 4.

By the way that means these QB's attempted throws over 30 yds 3.9% of the time.

But what the hell, stats are meaningless.
They aren't meaningless they just don't tell the whole story. You want to convince people who watch Schaub consistently over throw wide open WR's you're going to need more than completion percentage and passes attempted.
Actually over throw was a poor statement. What I meant to say was that if you want to convince people who watch Schaub consistently throw inaccurate deep passes.
 

Mr teX

Hall of Fame
OK but if Kubiak is so conservative and Schaub is only supposed to attempt hitting wide open WR's wouldn't that lead to non-conservative folks like Manning, Brady, etc. with better WR corps having more attempts and completions?
No not really. It's all in how a defense plays you as an offense, what your offense is built upon (bread and butter) and truthfully how the games go.......obviously if you're a team that likes to sling it, teams will run more nickel and dime packages to discourage you from doing what u like to do...

For instance, In blowouts the winning team tends to throw less while the losing team kicks it up a few notches in passing attempts. Spread offenses bread and butter are the short passes which typically = more attempts run based offenses like ours tend to throw it a little less.

There are also other factors. Manning has an entire offense designed around him...he's got complete control to do whatever; audible run to pass or vice versa.
 

eriadoc

Texan-American
He had 0 INT's on passes thrown over 30 yds (the other QB's combined for 5).
I don't trust your stats.

1-10-HOU 30 (4:19) (Run formation) 8-M.Schaub pass deep middle intended for 86-J.Casey INTERCEPTED by 23-V.Davis at IND 35. 23-V.Davis to HOU 39 for 26 yards (81-O.Daniels).
That's 35 yards in the air, intercepted by Vontae Davis.
 

infantrycak

Hall of Fame
No not really. .
You can attempt to frost this cake any way you want. I am sorry but over the course of a season and multiple different styled QB's your rationales fall away. At the end of the day the results weren't better on big plays. Someone should be really standing out particularly with this class of comparisons to lowly Schaub. You would think the holders of 9 SB rings would easily shine against Schaub with stats on this issue.

I don't trust your stats.

That's 35 yards in the air, intercepted by Vontae Davis.
I used the same source for all of them. I doubt ESPN was biased for Schaub.

Don't get caught up in the minutiae. The fact is these big names were not flinging the ball around 30+ yds with a great deal more success than Schaub. Y'all can rationalize it away all you want but that is a fact.
 

powda

The bridge between stupid and useless is short.
Relying on stats here is foolhardy. Completing a deep pass does not and never has meant a qb has a strong arm or is a great deep ball passer. This whole argument of handing out credit based on a stat line is like saying Barry Sanders must've had a great line because of the stats he put up.

Furthermore, this whole circus is focusing on attempts and completions. How bout lost yards and scores on most of his completions. Again and again receivers a mile open had to wait for the ball while defenders got back in the play. Early in the season teams were burned fairly often by play action passes to the OPPOSITE side of the field. Scheme completions. It got on tape and it stopped because Schaub does not have a strong arm and is not a good deep ball passer. He's a rhythm passer who's solid in short to intermediate passes.
 

GP

Go Texans!
Good luck arguing on this thread.

Anywho, Matt Schaub is a stats QB. Good stats here, good stats there. Good stats EVERYWHERE! Yay!

The. End.
 

infantrycak

Hall of Fame
Relying on stats here is foolhardy. Completing a deep pass does not and never has meant a qb has a strong arm or is a great deep ball passer. This whole argument of handing out credit based on a stat line is like saying Barry Sanders must've had a great line because of the stats he put up.
This is on a very specific subject which has been brought up repeatedly on this MB. If you don't like it, walk away.

Furthermore, this whole circus is focusing on attempts and completions. How bout lost yards and scores on most of his completions.
Again this is not a Schaub thread generally. It is on a specific issue. Long ballin'.

Early in the season teams were burned fairly often by play action passes to the OPPOSITE side of the field. Scheme completions. It got on tape and it stopped because Schaub does not have a strong arm and is not a good deep ball passer. He's a rhythm passer who's solid in short to intermediate passes.
Talking about balls thrown in the air here. Total and complete BS on they figured out we were running play action. Kubiak/Shanahan/Walsh have been doing it for several decades now. This isn't some new oh crap Schaub is doing it mid way through his 6th season with the Texans revelation to anyone but you.

You do realize an opposite side of the field throw counter-body is one of the hardest around, right?

Again - this is not a general Schaub thread. The point here is performance on balls thrown 30+ yds.
 

amazing80

Hall of Fame
So it has been customary of late to slag Schaub's arm whenever any WR is brought up. Latest example Mike Wallace - well he is too fast for Schaub. So decided to look at what we were missing out on. Since Wallace was what brought this up I looked up Big Ben first but below are some other prominent QB's (when I say thrown I mean in the air, not the result of the play):

Big Ben - 17 attempts, 4 completions, 23.5%. (3 completions over 40 yards thrown)
Peyton - 20 attempts, 7 completions, 35% (no completions over 40 yards thrown)
Brady - 19 attempts, 6 completions, 31.5% (no completions over 40 yards thrown)
Flacco - 38 attempts, 8 completions, 21% (2 completions over 40 yards thrown)
Brees - 32 attempts, 12 completions, 37.5% (4 completions over 40 yards thrown)
Rodgers - 13 attempts, 5 completions, 38% (1 completion over 40 yards thrown)

Schaub - 17 attempts, 6 completions, 35% (3 completions over 40 yards thrown)

Here's the kicker for you. All but one of those QB's had 3 TD's which were thrown over 30 yds - that was Brees with 4.

By the way that means these QB's attempted throws over 30 yds 3.9% of the time.

But what the hell, stats are meaningless.
whered you get these numbers from?
 

cdastros

Noob
Schaub gets his deap plays to wide open recievers off of play action, and under throws them. Other Qbs get thier deep plays on covered WR's, and throw them open.
 

thunderkyss

Just win baby!!!
Staff member
Contributor's Club
In the analytics era, you can pull out any statistic and make any point you want seem truthful.
Okay, do it. Pull out your stats that show Matt Schaub has trouble with the deep ball.

Nice moral victory thread and this proves once again how delusional houstonians are with their quarterback.
Again, most of the people in this thread are as cynical as you about this point. Who exactly are you referring to? If I had to guess, most of Houston is not happy with Schaub right now.

This is why we got stuck with david carr for so long. Houstonians and the front office were gutless and refused to see what they had in front of them. They kept on making rationalizations instead of making an honest analytical decision and move on from the situation.
Again, most of Houston was ready to move on from David Carr at least a season earlier than the Texans were. Proving that how Houstonians & Houston Texans' fans feel about their QB has absolutely nothing to do with why David Carr was with the Texans for so long.

Its happening again with schaub.

You people deserve matt schaub and gary kubiak.
Again, this is a totally different beast all together from David Carr. The only thing you can point at with Carr that you might argue he was successful, was his completion percentage. David Carr has never experienced any kind of success as a Houston Texans or other wise.

And David Carr had everything we consider to be Matt's weaknesses, he was (at the time) young, he was mobile, he had a cannon of an arm. He wasn't a dummy, but he had no idea how to win in this league.

Schaub is slow, has a weak arm, looks like he's 40, has all the stats you'd want from a QB, led the league in passing one year, & made two pro bowls. Getting rid of Schaub right now, would be similar to getting rid of Brees after having a successful season post shoulder injury.

It doesn't make sense.

Again, I don't consider myself a Schaub fan, not in the slightest. Prior to 2012 I was probably his most vocal critic on this board. But what we've been seeing this last year, is just crazy talk. You don't straight cut a guy like Matt Schaub if you don't have someone ready to take his place. Had Tj went on a tear last year, similar to Russel Wilson.... yeah, Schaub shouldn't have got a new contract. But he didn't.

If the Texans were concerned about Schaub's health, then they should have drafted a QB last year.. maybe Russel Wilson in the third. But they didn't. If they have concerns this year, then maybe they should.... we'll see.

But how you or I feel about it will not play a factor in their decision.
 

thunderkyss

Just win baby!!!
Staff member
Contributor's Club
Kubiak's system does not seem to allow for artistry in the QB position, but a methodical and predictable approach..
Signed -
Rosencopter


Numbers don't lie, but they don't always tell the whole truth. I don't know if it's his arm strength or if he's not technically right, but he's nowhere as good as some of the other QBs. In this instance "seeing is believing" saying applies to me. You only have to look at that Colts game where he fluttered a pass that was picked off and then overthrew AJ for another pick.
I think what Infantrycak's numbers show is how myoptic we are. We watch every Texans' game & analyze every snap, every throw, every drop. We know how often our receivers are turning around & slowing down to catch balls.

But we don't know to the same certainty how common that is. Anquan Boldin was a beast in Arizona & Baltimore because he can locate & adjust to the ball like very few receivers in the NFL can. That's part of the game.

The numbers clearly show Matt Schaub completes those passes with the same or better percentage than everyone on that list. No one is completing more deep passes (percentage wise) than Schaub. & his attempts are in line with guys "we" drool over..... Rogers, Ben, Peyton, Brady.

The only thing separating Schaub from those guys, is wins. If you think the QB deserves all the credit he gets from wins & all the blame he gets from losses then I understand the general sentiment around here.

But if you know this is a team game, then it doesn't make sense to me.

Flacco had a decent core of receivers when he came into the league. Mason I remember. But they said they have to get better at the skill position to go deep into the play offs. They went & got Boldin, they went & got Torrey Smith, & they picked up Pitta. The Falcons knew they would need more than Tony Gonzales & Roddy White to win (just win) in the post season, they moved up several spots to get Julio Jones.

Why is it that we think we should have won the Super Bowl by now, with Andre Johnson, Kevin Walter, David Anderson, & Jacoby Jones? If you blame Kubiak & Rick Smith for that, then why take your anger out on Schaub?

Again, I wanted nothing more, than for Tj Yates to light it up last season.. but he didn't. Schaub got his job back. That's the way it goes.
 

Texanmike02

Hall of Fame
Contributor's Club
the problem is almost all of schaubs deep throws are off of play action and augmented with threatening running game.

THOSE ARE IDEAL LONG PASSING PLAYS AND YET SCHAUB STILL HAS TROUBLE MAKING THEM.

Some of those guys on those list they dont always work off of play action because of their respective system. Schaub will only throw the long ball if its the play his twin brother gary calls. Conservative gary will only choose long passing plays if its ideal and needed. Those other guys, their degree of difficulty is much greater than schaub. Throwing the deep ball is just one of many problems with matt schaub.

In the analytics era, you can pull out any statistic and make any point you want seem truthful.

Nice moral victory thread and this proves once again how delusional houstonians are with their quarterback.

This is why we got stuck with david carr for so long. Houstonians and the front office were gutless and refused to see what they had in front of them. They kept on making rationalizations instead of making an honest analytical decision and move on from the situation.

Its happening again with schaub.

You people deserve matt schaub and gary kubiak.
While it may be true that you can misrepresent stats, it isn't true that all statistics are misrepresented. I think this is a pretty good application of statistics. I do analytical work all of the time and have made quite a few changes that contradicted what everybody "knew" to be true. At the same time there is always pressure to "tell a story with statistics" and that can be done too. The only criticisim of this particular statistic would be that it is a small sample size (though there are ways to deal with that) but it is hard to argue to the contrary. Perhaps you could find an alternative to that statistic which proves the contrary?

With HWWNBN it was a slightly different situation. The only statistic in his favor was his completion percentage. Every other statistic pointed to him being less than adequate (I carried his banner for a little too long admitidly but it was a lesson in analytics for me). What are the stats you would use to suggest that Schaub doesn't have a good arm or is a sub par QB?

Mike
 

silvrhand

All Pro
So it has been customary of late to slag Schaub's arm whenever any WR is brought up. Latest example Mike Wallace - well he is too fast for Schaub. So decided to look at what we were missing out on. Since Wallace was what brought this up I looked up Big Ben first but below are some other prominent QB's (when I say thrown I mean in the air, not the result of the play):

Big Ben - 17 attempts, 4 completions, 23.5%. (3 completions over 40 yards thrown)
Peyton - 20 attempts, 7 completions, 35% (no completions over 40 yards thrown)
Brady - 19 attempts, 6 completions, 31.5% (no completions over 40 yards thrown)
Flacco - 38 attempts, 8 completions, 21% (2 completions over 40 yards thrown)
Brees - 32 attempts, 12 completions, 37.5% (4 completions over 40 yards thrown)
Rodgers - 13 attempts, 5 completions, 38% (1 completion over 40 yards thrown)

Schaub - 17 attempts, 6 completions, 35% (3 completions over 40 yards thrown)

Here's the kicker for you. All but one of those QB's had 3 TD's which were thrown over 30 yds - that was Brees with 4.

By the way that means these QB's attempted throws over 30 yds 3.9% of the time.

But what the hell, stats are meaningless.
This doesn't pass my litmus test, so I went digging..

For 20+ yard completions, I show that he was 16th in the league with 46 completions of 20+ yards. He was also what 14th with 8 long balls of 40+ yards or more.

Not only do the stats contradict yours, but in general the eyeball test for Matt is he doesn't have good ball placement has to be on a schedule, or else he's very inefficient. I still think Matt is a system QB, and that's all he'll ever be, but that's all Kubiak wants though IMHO.

http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorystats?seasonType=REG&d-447263-n=1&d-447263-o=2&d-447263-p=1&d-447263-s=PASSING_20PLUS_YARDS_EACH&tabSeq=0&season=2012&Submit=Go&experience=&archive=false&conference=null&statisticCategory=PASSING&qualified=false
 

Dutchrudder

Hall of Fame
This doesn't pass my litmus test, so I went digging..

For 20+ yard completions, I show that he was 16th in the league with 46 completions of 20+ yards. He was also what 14th with 8 long balls of 40+ yards or more.

Not only do the stats contradict yours, but in general the eyeball test for Matt is he doesn't have good ball placement has to be on a schedule, or else he's very inefficient. I still think Matt is a system QB, and that's all he'll ever be, but that's all Kubiak wants though IMHO.

http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorystats?seasonType=REG&d-447263-n=1&d-447263-o=2&d-447263-p=1&d-447263-s=PASSING_20PLUS_YARDS_EACH&tabSeq=0&season=2012&Submit=Go&experience=&archive=false&conference=null&statisticCategory=PASSING&qualified=false
You're looking at plays of 20+ total yards, whereas Cak was showing passes of 30+ yards in the air, regardless of the result.
 

handswarmer

Rookie
So it has been customary of late to slag Schaub's arm whenever any WR is brought up. Latest example Mike Wallace - well he is too fast for Schaub. So decided to look at what we were missing out on. Since Wallace was what brought this up I looked up Big Ben first but below are some other prominent QB's (when I say thrown I mean in the air, not the result of the play):

Big Ben - 17 attempts, 4 completions, 23.5%. (3 completions over 40 yards thrown)
Peyton - 20 attempts, 7 completions, 35% (no completions over 40 yards thrown)
Brady - 19 attempts, 6 completions, 31.5% (no completions over 40 yards thrown)
Flacco - 38 attempts, 8 completions, 21% (2 completions over 40 yards thrown)
Brees - 32 attempts, 12 completions, 37.5% (4 completions over 40 yards thrown)
Rodgers - 13 attempts, 5 completions, 38% (1 completion over 40 yards thrown)

Schaub - 17 attempts, 6 completions, 35% (3 completions over 40 yards thrown)

Here's the kicker for you. All but one of those QB's had 3 TD's which were thrown over 30 yds - that was Brees with 4.

By the way that means these QB's attempted throws over 30 yds 3.9% of the time.

But what the hell, stats are meaningless.
Color me dumb but I cannot understand these 'stats'. Further explanation please?
 
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