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Texans Lead NFL.......in RUNS on 3rd And Long

CloakNNNdagger

Hall of Fame
We've had a thread where we discussed the Texans "Three and Out Percentages." Now we can look at......

RTC: Numbers on Texans 3rd-and-long runs
February, 12, 2013
Feb 12
10:55
AM ET
By Paul Kuharsky | ESPN.com

Houston Texans

The Texans faced 101 third-and-long situations. 23 of them were runs,” says Rivers McCown of Battle Red Blog. "That rate of 22% is nearly triple the league-average rate. A better way to say that? The Texans called nearly 9% of all third-and-long runs in the entire league last year."

To which I say: Great numbers here that really show Gary Kubiak’s unwillingness not just to take chances on third downs, but simply to throw. He really needs to self-evaluate in this area.

Is it Kubiak's "unwillingness" to pass on 3rd and long due to his own insecurity in taking chances in general........or is it a function of recognizing his QB's limitations?


This piece I present below is from 2009 ADVANCEDNFLSTATS.COM can add some comparative perspective to the 3rd and long subject. I would also have to keep in mind that in just the last couple of years, I believe that we have seen a distinct trending of most teams to lean more to the passing game than in the past.

Run-Pass Imbalance on 2nd and 3rd Downs
 
No surprise on that one. Wonder how many attempted passes were short of first down marker.

Short of the marker does not bother me as much as it does others. The defense knows where the first down marker is also. The problem for the Texans is that there are only two guys on offense where it is a reasonable bet for them to make a play based on thier skill to get to a first down Andre and Arian. Need more guys who can in some way make a play when the coverage dictates that the ball won't get the first down stick.
 
I think we were also near the bottom in long passes attempted..not surprising given that we won a lot of games, our style of offense,
Lack of deep threats and the qb we roll out.
 
Short of the marker does not bother me as much as it does others. The defense knows where the first down marker is also. The problem for the Texans is that there are only two guys on offense where it is a reasonable bet for them to make a play based on thier skill to get to a first down Andre and Arian. Need more guys who can in some way make a play when the coverage dictates that the ball won't get the first down stick.

It bothers the hell out of me, and I'll tell you why: Defenses began to put heavier press coverage on a WR or TE who was at or just shy of the 1st down marker...and they rarely really bothered with the deeper receivers because they knew where Matt would go.

I started noticing on 3rd and long that we had a tendency to run only one WR or TE shallow and all others went deep...to draw coverage to them and free up the shallow man. But the better teams figured that out and started playing the shallow man a lot harder than they did the deeper receivers. I was sitting there and wondering if there was a pattern, and when it happened in the Patriots playoff game...I noticed it happening over and over again.

This QB has developed David Carr tendencies out of nowhere. This QB was a completely different QB the second half of the season (primarily after the two OT games we won). From that point forward, he really spiraled downward except for the away game at Tennessee. But then again, it was the TITANS.

Throw in a HC whom I think knows he's screwed and doesn't know how to get out of the corner he's painted himself and this entire team into, and it makes for a rough ending to the season.

Gary Kubiak is loyal, though. Matt Schaub will be the default starting QB come camp. Probably no competition for his spot. Gary will think he can maybe have a better year in 2013. In Gary's world, we just need one more shot.
 
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Predicting the run on 3rd and long became a consistent way to get a laugh from everyone in my local sports bar.
 
Short of the marker does not bother me as much as it does others. The defense knows where the first down marker is also. The problem for the Texans is that there are only two guys on offense where it is a reasonable bet for them to make a play based on thier skill to get to a first down Andre and Arian. Need more guys who can in some way make a play when the coverage dictates that the ball won't get the first down stick.

short of the marker bothers me when schaub never hits a guy in stride and he's tackled immediately short of the marker. i blame the qb and playcaller. mainly the playcaller.
 
Predicting the run on 3rd and long became a consistent way to get a laugh from everyone in my local sports bar.

It's laughable & disgusting at the same time. Even my wife & a friend of her's while watching a game made a joke after a 3rd & long was announced "Here comes the run!", then they followed it up w/ "If we know they are fixing to run why wouldn't the other team?". That's a fair question that all I could do was shake my head at because low & behold...there came the run. :toropalm:

The sad predictability known as a Gary Kubiak run offense has it's moments where it equates to what I call....pee wee football. It is what it is & we are stuck w/ it for the near future.:foottap:
 
Even an Alzheimer's afflicted person remembers that Gary is running the ball on 3rd and long.
 
So when 76Texan argued against this all season, he was FOS? Yep.

Anyone who watched the games with a critical eye knew that Kubiak was giving up on 3rd down way too often. This is just an official indicator. It's a shame we have to have these sorts of official stats to prove what we already know.
 
I'm noticing something on 3rd and long:

Teams are blitzing the hell out of Schaub, making him check down. If it was 3rd and 8, NE (example; in the playoff game) released the hounds on him. Obviously, I need to go back and watch some more games and see more. That said, it's not all the blitz,; Schaub stopped stepping into throws in the 2nd half of the season. He faded away, if you will, on these throws. Led to underthrows, etc.
 
I'm noticing something on 3rd and long:

Teams are blitzing the hell out of Schaub, making him check down. If it was 3rd and 8, NE (example; in the playoff game) released the hounds on him. Obviously, I need to go back and watch some more games and see more. That said, it's not all the blitz,; Schaub stopped stepping into throws in the 2nd half of the season. He faded away, if you will, on these throws. Led to underthrows, etc.

Well, it's a combo deal.

(1) Blitz Schaub, and (2) Make sure the guy running the sole "escape route" is covered up and tackled as soon as he catches the ball. Then get ready to return a bad Donnie Jones punt...or actually, just stand there and watch his shank punt go out of bounds 25 yards down the field.

Pressure on Schaub and wrapping up the check-down receiver is all you had to do. Good defenses knew to do that against Schaub.
 
I'm noticing something on 3rd and long:

Teams are blitzing the hell out of Schaub, making him check down. If it was 3rd and 8, NE (example; in the playoff game) released the hounds on him. Obviously, I need to go back and watch some more games and see more. That said, it's not all the blitz,; Schaub stopped stepping into throws in the 2nd half of the season. He faded away, if you will, on these throws. Led to underthrows, etc.

How is this any different from how any other offense gets handled on 3rd & long? IMO it's not any different. It's how the offense handles the situation & the Texans it seems handles it poorly a majority of the time. I'm sure there are numerous teams that have been blitzed on 3rd & long & have succeeded in converting them by not being forced into calling run plays or draws or checking down to underneath patterns short of the 1st down marker. Not calling for proper protection & sending in a conservative play call along w/ an ineffective #2 wr are all factors that fall on the HC who is suppose to be an offensive genius, but looks anything but that against the likes of the better HC's in the NFL...Belichick & McCarthy to name a few.
 
So when 76Texan argued against this all season, he was FOS? Yep.

Anyone who watched the games with a critical eye knew that Kubiak was giving up on 3rd down way too often. This is just an official indicator. It's a shame we have to have these sorts of official stats to prove what we already know.

It's a shame that it takes these type of stats to prove to those that refused to acknowledge the obvious & the truth that they were wrong. Those that already knew normally don't need to justify the obvious.

Don't be too rough on 76 because our great Texan "insider" John McClain was once asked a question about Kubiak being predictable in his online chat & in his normal sarcastic way of answering questions he doesn't deem worthy he basically said that he has never heard that said about kubiak. Really?! McClain is another who foolishly chooses to ignore the obvious on occasion & is exactly why I look elsewhere for Texan/ NFL information.
 
How is this any different from how any other offense gets handled on 3rd & long? IMO it's not any different. It's how the offense handles the situation & the Texans it seems handles it poorly a majority of the time. I'm sure there are numerous teams that have been blitzed on 3rd & long & have succeeded in converting them by not being forced into calling run plays or draws or checking down to underneath patterns short of the 1st down marker. Not calling for proper protection & sending in a conservative play call along w/ an ineffective #2 wr are all factors that fall on the HC who is suppose to be an offensive genius, but looks anything but that against the likes of the better HC's in the NFL...Belichick & McCarthy to name a few.

No, you're right. Texans do sort of handle 3rd and long like a group of idiots at times. Sometimes though, I actually don't mind the checkdowns when their is pressure. I don't even want a pick or sack/fumble to happen. SOMETIMES, excuse me, I don't mind.

P.S.; Can we please stop calling Mike McCarthy a genius? Never seen such an "ehhhhh" coach get so much praise.
 
It's the same strategy Schaub & Kubiak won 12 games with. We beat the Broncos, we beat the Bears, we beat Baltimore.... it worked. We scored a lot of points, we kept our turnovers down.....

It didn't work against the Packers & it didn't work against the Patriots. It didn't work against Minnesota, or Inday @ Indy. But no one expected us to go undefeated right? We were going to win some we shouldn't, & we were going to lose some we shouldn't, right?

The Strategy did not get us to the AFC CHampionship Game.


eh.....
 
I'd like to see this stat split up to where we are on the field. Makes a big difference if we're pinned inside our own 20 or not. If it's like 80% inside the 20, but around 1-2% outside the 20... then I'm ok with this stat.

You have to keep in mind we have one of the best defenses in football. Why take chances when we don't have to.

If we're playing a high-powered offense, or the defense is playing like crap... then yes, I'd like to see us take more chances. But for majority of this season, we didn't have to.
 
As with any number, one often has to look deeper.

Of the third and long that the Texans faced, nearly 81% of the time, it was for 11 yards and longer.

The league averaged just 53% (and the Texans number was included).

That's a HUGE difference.

The more important question is why did the Texans get to third and very long a lot more often than the rest of the league?

It could be that the run game sucked.
It could be a false start or a holding penalty that pushed the ball back further.
Or something else.

There are other numbers that add to it to skew the situation further; for example, there were 3 QB scrambles that were scored as runs, but they were really pass plays.
 
No, you're right. Texans do sort of handle 3rd and long like a group of idiots at times. Sometimes though, I actually don't mind the checkdowns when their is pressure. I don't even want a pick or sack/fumble to happen. SOMETIMES, excuse me, I don't mind.

P.S.; Can we please stop calling Mike McCarthy a genius? Never seen such an "ehhhhh" coach get so much praise.

I completely understand not wanting a turnover or negative play depending on the field position, but field position is hardly the lone factor that contributes to kubiaks ineffective play calling on 3rd & longs. It really doesn't seem to matter where they are at on the field, 3rd & long on their side of the field results in the same ineffective play calling to eventually punt. 3rd & long on the opposition's side of the field leads to the same ineffective play calling to lead to a FG. We have all seen it at its finest this past season. Those that haven't are simply refusing to acknowledge the truth, but that doesn't change the facts. Kubiak & Dennison are highly predictable on 3rd & long & if the opposition really wants to stall the Texans offense & get off of the field on 3rd & long, send a blitz. Sad but true.

I never claimed McCarthy was a genius. I claimed he was one of the better HC's in the NFL & he has proven that imo because he has dealt w/ the exact situation Kubiak has dealt w/ in the past & has quite a bit more success. Average to mediocre defense, no running game, & relying on the passing offense to carry the team is what McCarthy has dealt w/ & gotten to the playoffs with. Kubiak had the same situation & produced 0 playoffs & 1 winning season 07, 08, & 2009. When finally getting a running game in 2010, kubiak managed to regress going 6-10. I don't think McCarthy is a genius but he has managed to keep his team winning & competitive despite their shortcomings. Something kubiak has proven he has trouble doing. So for that reason I do believe McCarthy is 1 of the better HC's & by far better then kubiak.
 
Actually, the two runs scored to Schaub were kneel downs to end the game; one scramble was on Yates avoiding pressure.

Two more times, the Texans were working the clock.

And 8 times, they were inside their own 10, mostly deep.
 
Actually, the two runs scored to Schaub were kneel downs to end the game; one scramble was on Yates avoiding pressure.

Two more times, the Texans were working the clock.

And 8 times, they were inside their own 10, mostly deep.

LOL! So the predictable play calling on 3rd & long that is often laughed at or criticised is skewed & stems from a few kneel downs & working the clock. Okkkkk.... I think not, but as I said earlier there are some who refuse to acknowledge the obvious which is the truth. You can lead the horse to water, but can't make them drink. Lead them to Battle Red koolaid & it will disappear.
 
I'm noticing something on 3rd and long:

Teams are blitzing the hell out of Schaub, making him check down. If it was 3rd and 8, NE (example; in the playoff game) released the hounds on him. Obviously, I need to go back and watch some more games and see more. That said, it's not all the blitz,; Schaub stopped stepping into throws in the 2nd half of the season. He faded away, if you will, on these throws. Led to underthrows, etc.

The reason he stopped stepping into his throws had to do withhis foot injury.

What's that crap about Moon in your sig. I wouldn't ever apologize to that wife beater, who despite having the most talented team in the NFL never even made it to an AFC championship and was one of the major contributors to Houston losing my beloved Oilers. He did lead his team to the most embarassing loss in NFL history, that says something.
 
LOL! So the predictable play calling on 3rd & long that is often laughed at or criticised is skewed & stems from a few kneel downs & working the clock. Okkkkk.... I think not, but as I said earlier there are some who refuse to acknowledge the obvious which is the truth. You can lead the horse to water, but can't make them drink. Lead them to Battle Red koolaid & it will disappear.

There's nothing about truth that needs to be discussed here, just facts.

First, you have to be able to separate facts into several categories where they belong before you can make some sense out of those different categories of facts.

Only after that can you stand a chance to get to the truth.
 
What it really boils down to is that we expected a drop off from Winston to Newton, and then Newton got injured.

We expected a drop off from Brisiel to Caldwell and then Caldwell got injured.
When you have 3 guys playing one position (RG) in the same season, two of the survivors are rookies who can't beat out a previously back-up (yet).

You have a Wade Smith who played more injured than at any time in his career.

You have Myers and Brown both having not as good a year as last.

You pretty much got whipped across the board, how do you expect a lot of good out of third and long (or any situation really) is just daydreaming.

That is the truth, besides the fact that Schaub didn't play well and that the D sucked and the ST sucked.
 
What it really boils down to is that we expected a drop off from Winston to Newton, and then Newton got injured.

We expected a drop off from Brisiel to Caldwell and then Caldwell got injured.
When you have 3 guys playing one position (RG) in the same season, two of the survivors are rookies who can't beat out a previously back-up (yet).

You have a Wade Smith who played more injured than at any time in his career.

You have Myers and Brown both having not as good a year as last.

You pretty much got whipped across the board, how do you expect a lot of good out of third and long (or any situation really) is just daydreaming.

That is the truth, besides the fact that Schaub didn't play well and that the D sucked and the ST sucked.

Don't worry '76, when it all starts to click next season, they'll be back. Some won't be back until we clinch the #1 seed, which most likely won't happen next season, some won't be back until we win the AFC Championship game, some won't be back until we win the Super Bowl.

But they'll be back.
 
What it really boils down to is that we expected a drop off from Winston to Newton, and then Newton got injured.

We expected a drop off from Brisiel to Caldwell and then Caldwell got injured.
When you have 3 guys playing one position (RG) in the same season, two of the survivors are rookies who can't beat out a previously back-up (yet).

You have a Wade Smith who played more injured than at any time in his career.

You have Myers and Brown both having not as good a year as last.

You pretty much got whipped across the board, how do you expect a lot of good out of third and long (or any situation really) is just daydreaming.

That is the truth, besides the fact that Schaub didn't play well and that the D sucked and the ST sucked.

And the fact that they had to face 8-9 men in the box constantly because there wasn't a deep threat opposite AJ. Atleast JJ for all of his suckitude time here provided that.

God how I hope they dont draft another WR from the slow/lacking in WR/DB talent Big 10. Draft somebody from a passing confrence like the Big 12/Pac 10. If you want a better faster version of JJ they should draft Marquise Goodwin in the 3rd rd. He's going to light up the combine.
 
Just another testament to how much of an offensive guru kubiak is.

I still smdh when i think about the days everyone was calling kubiak an offensive guru.

Sad stuff.

We also probably lead the league or close to the top of 2nd and long running plays.


Those who called Kubiak an offensive guru, yall should slap yourselves in the face.
 
Well if Kubiak is a guru & we ran it on 3rd & long an inordinate number of times (which I know we did) then you'd have to think there was a reason. I'd like to know what that reason was, but most speculate that Kubiak is too conservative, or restricts Matt, or that Matt is shell-shocked.... & I just find those reasons hard to believe.

I don't believe that is the future of our offense. Hopefully, it is a thing of the past.
 
i really wish somebody would put up how often the texans ran on 2nd and long.

That is the real problem. When people ask why the texans are always in 3rd and long situations, its because they always run on 2nd and long situations and it always fails to pick yards hence we are always on 3rd and long situations with captain check down matt cotton sloth.

check the 2nd and long running play stats.

that's one of the main problems.
 
We've had a thread where we discussed the Texans "Three and Out Percentages." Now we can look at......



Is it Kubiak's "unwillingness" to pass on 3rd and long due to his own insecurity in taking chances in general........or is it a function of recognizing his QB's limitations?


This piece I present below is from 2009 ADVANCEDNFLSTATS.COM can add some comparative perspective to the 3rd and long subject. I would also have to keep in mind that in just the last couple of years, I believe that we have seen a distinct trending of most teams to lean more to the passing game than in the past.


Run-Pass Imbalance on 2nd and 3rd Downs


Yes........

AND No!

To be honest, I didn't read the link. That said is there a chance (and you attorneys out there - you know who you are, might appreciate this) that it might be quite the opposite knowing these things:

A) The Texans are well aware of the league tendancies on 3rd and long
B) The Texans know that the league is well aware of league tendancies, and finally
C) The Texans have, if not the best RB in the league, one of the top 3 running backs in the league with Arian Foster.

IMO, the FAIL comes with Kubiak relying on the right side of the line which didn't always allow Arian Foster to do Arian Foster "things".
 
Well if Kubiak is a guru & we ran it on 3rd & long an inordinate number of times (which I know we did) then you'd have to think there was a reason. I'd like to know what that reason was, but most speculate that Kubiak is too conservative, or restricts Matt, or that Matt is shell-shocked.... & I just find those reasons hard to believe.

I don't believe that is the future of our offense. Hopefully, it is a thing of the past.

Or maybe just maybe


Wait for it





Wait for it






Matt was playing with a bum foot
 
i really wish somebody would put up how often the texans ran on 2nd and long.

That is the real problem. When people ask why the texans are always in 3rd and long situations, its because they always run on 2nd and long situations and it always fails to pick yards hence we are always on 3rd and long situations with captain check down matt cotton sloth.

check the 2nd and long running play stats.

that's one of the main problems.
Arian Foster ....any stat imaginable


http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/splits/_/id/12497/arian-foster

Justin Forsett
http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/splits/_/id/11467/justin-forsett

Ben Tate
http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/splits/_/id/13210/ben-tate



I wish there was a generic stat sheet but haven't found one yet
 
I'd be curious as to the teams that the Texans played what their 'split' was on going for a pass on 3rd and long versus their season average, given JJ Watt et al as a consideration.

Seriously, that would be interesting to me at least.

:swatter: + sacks

= Baller!
 
23 out of 101? seems low.. what would the number be if they counted screens too...
 
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I believe the dead arm thing more than the bum foot. I just didn't see it & I've watched the last games several times, at least once, paying special attention to his feet.

So you must have noticed that Matt wasn't stepping into his throws? Could that have had anything to do with his foot being hurt?

Or did somebody stick a rock in his sock every week?

After 10 yrs in the NFL Matt suddenly started having problems with his footwork. Do you think that could've been because he had one of the most debilitating injuries a football player regardless of position could possibly have?

Or maybe as you say Matts arm just cant hold up for a complete season. Either way the Texans need to find his heir apparent in the worst way. I mean Brees/Rodgers/Stafford etc....anyone with 2 healthy feet, even Peytons arms didn't fall off and they threw the ball considerably more than Matt did last yr.
 
It's kinda of funny.

So what if the Texans tendency is to run on third and long?

Y'all got to remember that the tendency of many other teams is to pass, and much more heavy at that.
If there's something predictable, well you can count on that.

It makes more sense to say that the Texans buck the trend, that they do things other teams don't do; they were more unpredictable than the rest.
 
Here is Watts

1st down 11 sacks 1stf 7pd 2 ff
2nd down 3.5 sack 8stf 4pd 2 ff
3rd down 5 sacks 5 pd
4th down 1sack
http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/splits/_/id/13979/jj-watt

While that's money my brother, my quest of a question was this:

How much different did the Texans opponents stray from their own tendancies versus the Texans defense compared to the NFL's stastiscal tendancies?

*EDIT*

I would suspect that their tendancies were slightly lower than their season average.

Of course I could be completely wrong, but again, it's completely interesting to me.
 
So you must have noticed that Matt wasn't stepping into his throws? Could that have had anything to do with his foot being hurt?

Or did somebody stick a rock in his sock every week?

After 10 yrs in the NFL Matt suddenly started having problems with his footwork. Do you think that could've been because he had one of the most debilitating injuries a football player regardless of position could possibly have?

Or maybe as you say Matts arm just cant hold up for a complete season. Either way the Texans need to find his heir apparent in the worst way. I mean Brees/Rodgers/Stafford etc....anyone with 2 healthy feet, even Peytons arms didn't fall off and they threw the ball considerably more than Matt did last yr.

I mean I saw no evidence or any foot injury. He had no problem planting his feet, he stepped into his throws, he pushed off both feet equally well. If there was an issue with is foot, he didn't act like it.

I also did not see any evidence of a dead arm, but I'd believe it more because the evidence is more subjective.
 
Just another testament to how much of an offensive guru kubiak is.

I still smdh when i think about the days everyone was calling kubiak an offensive guru.

Sad stuff.

We also probably lead the league or close to the top of 2nd and long running plays.


Those who called Kubiak an offensive guru, yall should slap yourselves in the face.

I still consider him an offensive guru, so I went ahead and slapped myself for you.
 
The majority of these came from behind their own 20 yard line. Very predictable trend, and the only explanation for it is to create space for a punt. -_-
 
I'd like to see this stat split up to where we are on the field. Makes a big difference if we're pinned inside our own 20 or not. If it's like 80% inside the 20, but around 1-2% outside the 20... then I'm ok with this stat.

You have to keep in mind we have one of the best defenses in football. Why take chances when we don't have to.

If we're playing a high-powered offense, or the defense is playing like crap... then yes, I'd like to see us take more chances. But for majority of this season, we didn't have to.

Field position on "3rd and long" makes a huge difference.
So does the yardage necessary make a big difference ... 3rd and 7 as opposed to 3rd and 12.

But another major factor is the score and time. If we are facing a 3rd and long ahead 28 - 7 with 6 minutes to play, I am perfectly OK if Kubiak runs the ball 100% of those times.
 
Just another testament to how much of an offensive guru kubiak is.

I still smdh when i think about the days everyone was calling kubiak an offensive guru.

Sad stuff.

We also probably lead the league or close to the top of 2nd and long running plays.


Those who called Kubiak an offensive guru, yall should slap yourselves in the face.

Even so ... we also "lead the league or close to the top" in wins.
 
Even so ... we also "lead the league or close to the top" in wins.

Ah.... the good ol days, when that was all that matters.

Kubiak must be doing a great job now that expectations are much higher. We got a steal when we extended him. Hope to lock him up for a long time to come. Then they'll be complaining that we didn't run the score up while winning our first Super Bowl.
 
Really? Got a link? If not, I guess we would just have to take it for what its worth.

I think Belichick thinks otherwise & proved it...twice. Just saying..

Here is a thread, with a link where Cowher was very complimentary of Kubiak. I don't know that he's called Kubiak a guru, but he's pretty high on him none-the-less.
 
Here is a thread, with a link where Cowher was very complimentary of Kubiak. I don't know that he's called Kubiak a guru, but he's pretty high on him none-the-less.

Thanks for the link. I'm having issues listening to it because I'm on my phone.

As of late, kubiak has taken some criticism for his offense & how he utilizes it & makes adjustments, or lack thereof, accordingly. I haven't heard the term "guru" used to describe him in quite some time by anyone outside of Houston to he honest. He's under contract so we have time to see if he is capable of convincing the naysayers, fans & media. Myself included to be honest.
 
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