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AFC Title Game: Patriots vs Ravens
- Thread starter BullBlitz
- Start date
handswarmer
Rookie
Before 1:30pm last Sunay, I swear this game was going to be played in Reliant Stadium...
BullBlitz
Section 331
Showtime100
Got JJ?
I can't help but dig at the NFL for their money-grubbing ratings tactics. Wring every last penny at the expense of good playing conditions to get the truest of all possible results from these games.
San Francisco at Atlanta in a Dome.
Baltimore at New England at night, in Massachusetts, in January.
Silly, IMO. The temperature in the Georgia Dome would still be comfortable at night.
San Francisco at Atlanta in a Dome.
Baltimore at New England at night, in Massachusetts, in January.
Silly, IMO. The temperature in the Georgia Dome would still be comfortable at night.
Speedy
Former Yeller Dweller
FWIW, the Championship Games alternate every year. Last year the AFC game was 1st up. This year it's the NFC game.
BullBlitz
Section 331
According to another poster, they alternate the AFC and NFC games. I didn't know that either.
However, the NFL is a business. I don't blame them for putting this game in prime time.
Vinny
shiny happy fan
I love me some football...too bad the good guys aren't there though. One thing I'm sick of is Ray Lewis. I hope the Patriots keep him out of he SB. I'm sick of hearing how God is helping him as if God plays favorites. Another week or two of segments glorifying this will make my head explode.
SheTexan
Hall of Fame
I'm very excited about football today!! Texans own my football heart and soul, but, I've been a NINER fan since I was about 14 y/o! Only time I've ever pulled against them was when they played the Oilers, and the Texans!!
As for the Pats/Ravens game! I'll probably be the ONLY one on this board pulling for the Pats, but, thats the way it's gonna be! I just don't want to see Jacoby Jones get a chance at a SB ring before our Texans do. I just DON'T!!
Playoffs
Hall of Fame
3TFO: Ravens @ Patriots, AFC Championship
Steve Palazzolo | 2013/01/18
Patriots Pass Offense vs. Ravens Pass Defense
Despite boasting one of the top running attacks in the league, the Patriots offense still runs through Brady. He hasnt played well in the Patriots last three playoff losses, and their success will likely depend on his ability to play at his expected Pro-Bowl level. He posted a season-high +7.4 grade in the first matchup with Baltimore, and he was particularly effective throwing to the intermediate (10-20 yards) level, going 8 of 10 for 125 yards on such throws. The Ravens blitzed him on 17 of his 44 drop-backs, and thats where Brady did most of his damage, going 12 of 15 for 155 yards and a QB rating of 109.7. How will the Ravens match up with Bradys targets this week?
Wide receiver Wes Welker is never an easy cover, but the Ravens have done a nice job of slowing him down with cornerback Ladarius Webb. Unfortunately, Webb is out for the season and the responsibility will fall on CB Corey Graham who starts at LCB in the base defense before kicking inside to cover the slot in sub packages. Welker has taken his usual spot among the best in the league, averaging 2.04 Yards/Route Run when lined up in the slot, while Graham is in the middle of the pack among slot cornerbacks with his 1.30 Yards/Cover Snap. Its not a terrible performance by Graham, but its certainly a downgrade from Webb who surrendered only 0.88 Yards/Cover Snap in the slot last year, before giving up only 0.32 through 92 snaps this season. Grahams ability to keep up with Welker may be the most important matchup for the Ravens on Sunday.
This matchup will be less cut and dried compared to Welker, as tight end Aaron Hernandez lines up all over the formation. Hell see a number of Ravens defenders, but look for the Patriots to exploit the matchups that find him covered by a linebacker. Whether its Lewis (-8.7 pass coverage) who, despite his exceptional career and team leadership has clearly lost a step in coverage, or LB Dannell Ellerbe (-6.4 pass coverage), the Patriots should be able to win the matchup especially as Hernandez appeared to have his explosion back last week with 57 of his 85 receiving yards coming after the catch.
The final piece that could be a struggle for the Ravens is the running backs. Last week, RB Danny Woodhead was supposed to be a big part of the Patriots game plan but a hand injury sidelined him early in the game and RB Shane Vereen took over his role. Vereen didnt miss a beat with 124 yards from scrimmage and three touchdowns. Like Hernandez, the Patriots running backs will line up at a number of spots, so expect Lewis and Ellerbe to move with them if the Ravens are in man coverage.
Ravens Pass Offense vs. Patriots Pass Defense
The Ravens also have a number of receiving weapons at their disposal, as evidenced by QB Joe Flaccos 613 yards passing in the playoffs already. The deep passing game is a huge part of his arsenal, and his 92 regular season attempts were the second-most in the league and last week he completed four of six deep throws for 185 yards and three touchdowns. It remains to be seen how much pressure he will face this weekend. The Patriots blitzed him only three times on his 47 drop-backs in Week 3, this despite the fact Flacco grades at +19.0, with a QB Rating of 96.4, against traditional four-man pressure, but his numbers drop to -10.7 and 76.4 when he is blitzed. The Patriots have stepped up the pressure since adding CB Aqib Talib, increasing their blitz frequency from 17% of the time before his acquisition, to 33% over the past eight games.
What is clearer is who Flacco will be throwing to.
No wide receiver saw a higher percentage of deep throws than Torrey Smith, who was targeted beyond 20 yards 42.3% of the time in the regular season. In fact, 36 of his 114 targeted passes have been go routes, so his ability to stretch the defense is a huge part of the Ravens offense.
In New England, head coach Bill Belichick generally keeps his cornerbacks on the same side regardless of the matchups, but the late acquisition of Talib has expanded the options on defense. Talib has been used to shadow opposing teams top wide receivers at times, and he did so last week against WR Andre Johnson. While Talib does not boast outstanding numbers (1.74 yards/cover snap), hes taken to the added responsibility and Belichick has trusted him enough to play a lot more varied coverages in the secondary.
The Patriots did not assign a cornerback to Smith in the first matchup, but Talib was not on the roster at the time. Whether Talib flips sides or not, hell see plenty of Smith who has received 54% of his targets from a right wide receiver spot, which is opposite Talibs natural left cornerback position.
On the other side of Smith is Anquan Boldin, who will also kick inside to play in the slot in 3-WR packages. His more physical approach to the game offers a different challenge from Smith. Hes caught all but two of the 78 on-target balls thrown his way, and hes picked up 216 yards over the past two weeks. When lined up outside, hell see either Talib or CB Alfonzo Dennard who is fresh off making our PFF All-Rookie Team. Dennards 1.26 Yards/Cover Snap ranks in the middle of the pack among cornerbacks, but hes allowed a league-low 78 yards after the catch.
When Boldin moves inside to the slot, it will likely be CB Kyle Arrington getting the nod. Hes given up only 0.71 yards/cover snap in the slot and hes graded at +5.2 since Week 10.
Patriots Running Game vs. Ravens Run Defense
One of the stories of the season in New England is the dedication to the running game that has the Patriots ranked seventh in the league in rushing yards, adding a balanced dimension to their pass-first attack. On the other side, Baltimore historically has been one of the most difficult teams to run against, but less than stellar pay up front, combined with injuries to both Lewis and OLB Terrell Suggs have forced the unit to take a step back this season. Both players were forces last week, however, combining for a +6.6 grade against the run.
New Englands offensive line has proven a stellar run blocking unit, particularly at center where Ryan Wendell is our top run blocker at the position (+24.2). Hell be matched up against the oversized, yet underwhelming duo of DT Maake Kemoeatu and DT Terrence Cody who combine for 710 lbs of mass (listed), but only a -7.1 combined run stop grade. In addition to Wendell, Patriots OT Nate Solder and OG Logan Mankins split Player of the Game Honors last week on the strength of their fantastic work in the running game where they combined to grade at +5.2.
While Brady has been one of the main culprits of recent Patriots playoff losses, the well-balanced running attack may be just what they need to take some pressure off him and leave them with some margin for error.
Steve Palazzolo | 2013/01/18
Patriots Pass Offense vs. Ravens Pass Defense
Despite boasting one of the top running attacks in the league, the Patriots offense still runs through Brady. He hasnt played well in the Patriots last three playoff losses, and their success will likely depend on his ability to play at his expected Pro-Bowl level. He posted a season-high +7.4 grade in the first matchup with Baltimore, and he was particularly effective throwing to the intermediate (10-20 yards) level, going 8 of 10 for 125 yards on such throws. The Ravens blitzed him on 17 of his 44 drop-backs, and thats where Brady did most of his damage, going 12 of 15 for 155 yards and a QB rating of 109.7. How will the Ravens match up with Bradys targets this week?
Covering Welker
Wide receiver Wes Welker is never an easy cover, but the Ravens have done a nice job of slowing him down with cornerback Ladarius Webb. Unfortunately, Webb is out for the season and the responsibility will fall on CB Corey Graham who starts at LCB in the base defense before kicking inside to cover the slot in sub packages. Welker has taken his usual spot among the best in the league, averaging 2.04 Yards/Route Run when lined up in the slot, while Graham is in the middle of the pack among slot cornerbacks with his 1.30 Yards/Cover Snap. Its not a terrible performance by Graham, but its certainly a downgrade from Webb who surrendered only 0.88 Yards/Cover Snap in the slot last year, before giving up only 0.32 through 92 snaps this season. Grahams ability to keep up with Welker may be the most important matchup for the Ravens on Sunday.
Covering Hernandez
This matchup will be less cut and dried compared to Welker, as tight end Aaron Hernandez lines up all over the formation. Hell see a number of Ravens defenders, but look for the Patriots to exploit the matchups that find him covered by a linebacker. Whether its Lewis (-8.7 pass coverage) who, despite his exceptional career and team leadership has clearly lost a step in coverage, or LB Dannell Ellerbe (-6.4 pass coverage), the Patriots should be able to win the matchup especially as Hernandez appeared to have his explosion back last week with 57 of his 85 receiving yards coming after the catch.
Covering the Running Backs
The final piece that could be a struggle for the Ravens is the running backs. Last week, RB Danny Woodhead was supposed to be a big part of the Patriots game plan but a hand injury sidelined him early in the game and RB Shane Vereen took over his role. Vereen didnt miss a beat with 124 yards from scrimmage and three touchdowns. Like Hernandez, the Patriots running backs will line up at a number of spots, so expect Lewis and Ellerbe to move with them if the Ravens are in man coverage.
Ravens Pass Offense vs. Patriots Pass Defense
The Ravens also have a number of receiving weapons at their disposal, as evidenced by QB Joe Flaccos 613 yards passing in the playoffs already. The deep passing game is a huge part of his arsenal, and his 92 regular season attempts were the second-most in the league and last week he completed four of six deep throws for 185 yards and three touchdowns. It remains to be seen how much pressure he will face this weekend. The Patriots blitzed him only three times on his 47 drop-backs in Week 3, this despite the fact Flacco grades at +19.0, with a QB Rating of 96.4, against traditional four-man pressure, but his numbers drop to -10.7 and 76.4 when he is blitzed. The Patriots have stepped up the pressure since adding CB Aqib Talib, increasing their blitz frequency from 17% of the time before his acquisition, to 33% over the past eight games.
What is clearer is who Flacco will be throwing to.
Covering Smith
No wide receiver saw a higher percentage of deep throws than Torrey Smith, who was targeted beyond 20 yards 42.3% of the time in the regular season. In fact, 36 of his 114 targeted passes have been go routes, so his ability to stretch the defense is a huge part of the Ravens offense.
In New England, head coach Bill Belichick generally keeps his cornerbacks on the same side regardless of the matchups, but the late acquisition of Talib has expanded the options on defense. Talib has been used to shadow opposing teams top wide receivers at times, and he did so last week against WR Andre Johnson. While Talib does not boast outstanding numbers (1.74 yards/cover snap), hes taken to the added responsibility and Belichick has trusted him enough to play a lot more varied coverages in the secondary.
The Patriots did not assign a cornerback to Smith in the first matchup, but Talib was not on the roster at the time. Whether Talib flips sides or not, hell see plenty of Smith who has received 54% of his targets from a right wide receiver spot, which is opposite Talibs natural left cornerback position.
Covering Boldin
On the other side of Smith is Anquan Boldin, who will also kick inside to play in the slot in 3-WR packages. His more physical approach to the game offers a different challenge from Smith. Hes caught all but two of the 78 on-target balls thrown his way, and hes picked up 216 yards over the past two weeks. When lined up outside, hell see either Talib or CB Alfonzo Dennard who is fresh off making our PFF All-Rookie Team. Dennards 1.26 Yards/Cover Snap ranks in the middle of the pack among cornerbacks, but hes allowed a league-low 78 yards after the catch.
When Boldin moves inside to the slot, it will likely be CB Kyle Arrington getting the nod. Hes given up only 0.71 yards/cover snap in the slot and hes graded at +5.2 since Week 10.
Patriots Running Game vs. Ravens Run Defense
One of the stories of the season in New England is the dedication to the running game that has the Patriots ranked seventh in the league in rushing yards, adding a balanced dimension to their pass-first attack. On the other side, Baltimore historically has been one of the most difficult teams to run against, but less than stellar pay up front, combined with injuries to both Lewis and OLB Terrell Suggs have forced the unit to take a step back this season. Both players were forces last week, however, combining for a +6.6 grade against the run.
New Englands offensive line has proven a stellar run blocking unit, particularly at center where Ryan Wendell is our top run blocker at the position (+24.2). Hell be matched up against the oversized, yet underwhelming duo of DT Maake Kemoeatu and DT Terrence Cody who combine for 710 lbs of mass (listed), but only a -7.1 combined run stop grade. In addition to Wendell, Patriots OT Nate Solder and OG Logan Mankins split Player of the Game Honors last week on the strength of their fantastic work in the running game where they combined to grade at +5.2.
While Brady has been one of the main culprits of recent Patriots playoff losses, the well-balanced running attack may be just what they need to take some pressure off him and leave them with some margin for error.
Showtime100
Got JJ?
I didn't know that. The NFL is really stupid....lol.
I've watched almost every Super Bowl since Super Bowl V. I'll be watching this one, too. It's the Super Bowl, man.
Showtime100
Got JJ?
I hope so. I don't want two weeks of Ray Lewis BS cult worship instead of real coverage of the gane.
Showtime100
Got JJ?
Wow. So that's what the Patriots punt formation looks like.
Third down, threw it behind the sticks.
what the heck was that?
drs23
Veteran
Speedy
Former Yeller Dweller
Same here. Even though I don't care about any of the teams that will be in it now that the Falcons are out.
In $uper Bowl$ like thi$ year'$, when I don't have a dog in the race, I u$ually find $omething to keep my intere$t in the game.
Textan
Waterboy
Good Lord man..........and you're not sick of hearing about Brady and the Patriots, seriously?
Hey. I'm no great fan of Lewis, but I swear I throw up a little every time I hear Brady, Patriots, BB, anything to do with that part of the world.
EllisUnit
Vote RED!!!
We only had them punt 3 of their first 4 possesions when we played them. I know we scored zero points but you must of been away from the TV....
Showtime100
Got JJ?
Oh for God's sakes. Just a joke, my good man.
EllisUnit
Vote RED!!!
haha man this is sad to watch the ravens move the ball up and down the field so easily. We should be playing baltimore tonight
Textan
Waterboy
Or maybe the Ravens aren't intimidated by them one bit?
Or maybe the Ravens have a very good QB?
Or maybe their coach prepared them properly?
EllisUnit
Vote RED!!!
Alot of maybes, i'm just stating facts.
EllisUnit
Vote RED!!!
Prob whys he's retiring after this season
Someone should tell him retirement starts after the season ends.
dtran04
Veteran
At least the Ravens don't have him lined outside trying to cover somebody.
Uh.... we scored 3 points.
Showtime100
Got JJ?
Did anybody else notice when a Patriot hit the turf the clock read :26 and the next play the clock read :26??
Pretty quick imo.
Pretty quick imo.
Dude just said Belichick is worried about Flacco.
I don't remember hearing Belichick being worried about Matt last week.
I don't remember hearing Belichick being worried about Matt last week.
EllisUnit
Vote RED!!!
EllisUnit
Vote RED!!!
Kubiak is more worried about Schaub than opposing coaches our D.Cs, hence the play calling