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AFC Tie-breaker

HTown2ATX

HTown2ATX

TexansMetalhead
So, listening to 610 this morning something was mentioned that confused me.

It was mentioned that if the Texans lose in a couple weeks to the Pats, the Texans lose the tie breakers they have already against BAL and DEN or something like that?? Basically they were saying those tie breakers we already own could be potentially blown with a loss to the Pats (perhaps something additionally has to happen to add to this to cause that?).

My question....is there any truth in that? All my years in watching football, I don't remember losing a head to head tie breaker to a team we beat by losing to another team???? Of course it's been years and years since any of that mattered for a Houston team so maybe I am forgetting something..
 
Stemp

Stemp

Brew Master
HTown2ATX said:
So, listening to 610 this morning something was mentioned that confused me.

It was mentioned that if the Texans lose in a couple weeks to the Pats, the Texans lose the tie breakers they have already against BAL and DEN or something like that?? Basically they were saying those tie breakers we already own could be potentially blown with a loss to the Pats (perhaps something additionally has to happen to add to this to cause that?).

My question....is there any truth in that? All my years in watching football, I don't remember losing a head to head tie breaker to a team we beat by losing to another team???? Of course it's been years and years since any of that mattered for a Houston team so maybe I am forgetting something..
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I'm betting you misheard. You can't lose a head-2-head tiebreaker, but in a 3 way tie, assuming the teams have beaten each other, that tiebreaker goes out the window.
 
Hagar

Hagar

Drink up yall, its the Texans!
Eh, talking heads trying to take up radio silence.

If they are talking about this kind of crap, they wasting airtime.
 
HTown2ATX

HTown2ATX

TexansMetalhead
Stemp said:
I'm betting you misheard. You can't lose a head-2-head tiebreaker, but in a 3 way tie, assuming the teams have beaten each other, the tiebreaker goes out the window.
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At first I was thinking I misheard as well but I perked up and listened to the rest of the conversation and while I don't remember the details, they definitely laid out some convoluted explanation of how that could potentially lose us the tie breakers and #1 seed.
 
Texas T

Texas T

Veteran
HTown2ATX said:
This is what I am hoping but checking to see if I am missing something here...
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Like Stemp already pointed out-the only way the Head to Head doesn't count it in the case of a three way tie. I'm betting that is what they were looking at-more than one team (including the Texans) finishing 13-3.
 
michaelm

michaelm

vox nihili
An example of what they were saying is this scenario:

Texans, Ravens, and Patriots all finish the season 13-3.

In the regular season:
Texans beat Ravens
Ravens beat Patriots
Patriots beat Texans


In this scenario, each team is 1-1 against the teams with the tied overall records, so the head to head tie breaker is thrown out, and next next tie breaker is used, which I believe is record against the AFC conference.
 
HTown2ATX

HTown2ATX

TexansMetalhead
michaelm said:
An example of what they were saying is this scenario:

Texans, Ravens, and Patriots all finish the season 13-3.

In the regular season:
Texans beat Ravens
Ravens beat Patriots
Patriots beat Texans


In this scenario, each team is 1-1 against the teams with the tied overall records, so the head to head tie breaker is thrown out, and next next tie breaker is used, which I believe is record against the AFC conference.
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Yeah I must have misheard them because I know if we all finish say 13-3 then then it gets dicey but I didn't realize each team was 1-1 in this scenario either. I believe you are correct that the AFC record comes in to play after that which as of now our only loss was NFC which I am thankful for so obviously if the Pats beat us that tarnishes that.

Clearly I missed them probably mentioning the 1-1 issue if finishing at 13-3 which is what confused me and made me think they were saying something totally different.

Thx for the clarification.
 
thunderkyss

thunderkyss

Just win baby!!!
Staff member
Contributor's Club
michaelm said:
An example of what they were saying is this scenario:

Texans, Ravens, and Patriots all finish the season 13-3.

In the regular season:
Texans beat Ravens
Ravens beat Patriots
Patriots beat Texans


In this scenario, each team is 1-1 against the teams with the tied overall records, so the head to head tie breaker is thrown out, and next next tie breaker is used, which I believe is record against the AFC conference.
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If we lose to New England, we would go to 9-1 in the conference (if we beat Tennessee). New England & Baltimore could possibly be 9-1 at that time as well. So it's possible for all three teams to finish 11-1 in the conference.

FYI, Denver is also sitting there with 3 loses. They could possibly end the season 13-3 as well. They have Baltimore on their schedule, a win against Baltimore would assure Baltimore doesn't finish better than 13-3, then Baltimore would also have another loss in the conference meaning they won't finish better than 10-2, so we need to root for Denver to beat Baltimore, but lose somewhere else (so there is no 13-3 three-way tie).
 
Thorn

Thorn

Dirty Old Man
Here ya go.

Three or More Clubs

(Note: If two clubs remain tied after third or other clubs are eliminated, tie breaker reverts to step 1 of applicable two-club format.)
1.Apply division tie breaker to eliminate all but the highest ranked club in each division prior to proceeding to step 2. The original seeding within a division upon application of the division tie breaker remains the same for all subsequent applications of the procedure that are necessary to identify the two Wild-Card participants.
2.Head-to-head sweep. (Applicable only if one club has defeated each of the others or if one club has lost to each of the others.)
3.Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
4.Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.
5.Strength of victory.
6.Strength of schedule.
7.Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
8.Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
9.Best net points in conference games.
10.Best net points in all games.
11.Best net touchdowns in all games.
12.Coin toss
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http://www.nfl.com/standings/tiebreakingprocedures
 
TexanBacker93

TexanBacker93

Veteran
michaelm said:
An example of what they were saying is this scenario:

Texans, Ravens, and Patriots all finish the season 13-3.

In the regular season:
Texans beat Ravens
Ravens beat Patriots
Patriots beat Texans


In this scenario, each team is 1-1 against the teams with the tied overall records, so the head to head tie breaker is thrown out, and next next tie breaker is used, which I believe is record against the AFC conference.
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That's correct. Of course your scenario could get even more convoluted if Denver beats the Ravens and also finishes 13-3.

I think in any scenario where we lose to the Pats and end up 13-3 along with them and anyone else I think New England would end up with the top seed.

In a multiple team tie-breaker, though, once one team has been placed the tie-breaking rules go back to head-to-head.

Also in the case of multiple teams tied with the same record if one team swept the others or was swept they would be either eliminated or be the top seed.

I think the safest thing to do is beat New England and this is all moot. I'm hoping SF beats them after we play them either way. It would give us a cushion if we do lose.

I don't want it to come down to the final Sunday against the Colts.
 
Corrosion

Corrosion

Idealist
Staff member
Fiddler said:
If we lose to New England, we would go to 9-1 in the conference (if we beat Tennessee). New England & Baltimore could possibly be 9-1 at that time as well. So it's possible for all three teams to finish 11-1 in the conference.

FYI, Denver is also sitting there with 3 loses. They could possibly end the season 13-3 as well. They have Baltimore on their schedule, a win against Baltimore would assure Baltimore doesn't finish better than 13-3, then Baltimore would also have another loss in the conference meaning they won't finish better than 10-2, so we need to root for Denver to beat Baltimore, but lose somewhere else (so there is no 13-3 three-way tie).
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Bleh , we just need to beat the Pats .... Problem solved!
 
thunderkyss

thunderkyss

Just win baby!!!
Staff member
Contributor's Club
Corrosion said:
Bleh , we just need to beat the Pats .... Problem solved!
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Then we still may be in a three way tie with Denver & Baltimore. Just going through all the scenarios.

:kitten:



But since we beat both teams, we'll win the tie breaker.
 
Mailman

Mailman

Pwned by Hakeem
If the Texans finish 4-1 with the only loss being that MNF game at NE, they will still win the #1 seed regardless of what everyone else does. They'll be 14-2 and the best Baltimore can finish is 14-2, with Houston winning the tiebreaker.

The OP must have definitely misheard what they were saying.
 
Mailman

Mailman

Pwned by Hakeem
HTown2ATX said:
At first I was thinking I misheard as well but I perked up and listened to the rest of the conversation and while I don't remember the details, they definitely laid out some convoluted explanation of how that could potentially lose us the tie breakers and #1 seed.
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Not the case with a loss only to NE. That can definitely happen assuming the Texans lose another game in addition to the Pats game and both Baltimore and New England win out. However, in order for the Patriots to win out they will have to beat us and San Francisco in consecutive weeks. Likewise, the Ravens would have to beat the Broncos, Giants, and Redskins.

I like our chances at the top seed overall.
 
GP

GP

Go Texans!
I can't believe the Colts have the record they have. I am astounded.

I watched some of the Colts-Bills game, Luck was not doing anything overly heroic in that game. He was sacked, he was almost intercepted twice in the short amount of snaps I watched of that game.

I cannot believe they are on our heels like they are.

And with how the Ravens pull wins out of their butts each week, it's not comforting right now. We're 10-1, but frankly there could be some letdown games for us in the final stretch to the finish line.

It seems like Pats and Texans are the best two teams in the AFC and yet the Broncos and Ravens and Colts are ll three doing a really high-effort job of trying to keep pace with us. Nobody needs to say it's a down year in the AFC. I actually think the AFC is very competitive this year. 5 teams that could really do damage in the playoffs, IMO.
 
thunderkyss

thunderkyss

Just win baby!!!
Staff member
Contributor's Club
GP said:
It seems like Pats and Texans are the best two teams in the AFC and yet the Broncos and Ravens and Colts are ll three doing a really high-effort job of trying to keep pace with us. Nobody needs to say it's a down year in the AFC. I actually think the AFC is very competitive this year. 5 teams that could really do damage in the playoffs, IMO.
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Agreed. Well, I don't think the Colts would do any damage if they get to the play-offs. Now if the Bengals somehow get in, instead of the Colts, that would be 5 teams that can do some damage.
 
Thorn

Thorn

Dirty Old Man
Here are the AFC leaders remaining schedule:

New England: @ Miami, Houston, San Francisco, @ Jacksonville, Miami

Denver: Tampa Bay, @ Oakland, @ Baltimore, Cleveland, Kansas City

Baltimore: Pittsburgh, @ Washington, Denver, New York Giants, @ Cincinnati

Houston: @ Tennessee, @ New England, Indianapolis, Minnesota, @ Indianapolis

I can see New England losing two, Denver losing one, Baltimore losing two, and Houston losing two. If I'm right, the only one that would concern us is New England.

At this point though, I wouldn't predict anything with certainty.
 
Mailman

Mailman

Pwned by Hakeem
I agree, especially with that closing game at Cincy with a possible playoff spot at stake for the Bengals. The Ravens will not win out. Hard to see the Patriots doing so, either with SF on their schedule.
 
HTown2ATX

HTown2ATX

TexansMetalhead
AngryNateFTW said:
The Ravens aren't going to finish 13-3. They escaped a really bad/mediocre Chargers team.
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While I see what you are saying, this is the same argument people point out about the Texans scraping by a horrible Jags team.....

All I'm saying by that is I wouldn't try to predict their outcome based on that game otherwise that applies to Houston as well wouldn't it?
 
Allstar

Allstar

Bona fide
Rooting for Baltimore to get the 4 seed, so we can avoid Peyton/Brady until the AFC championship. I'd like for Cincy to get in over Indy so they can at least give a team a fight in the wildcard round. I think Indy would be bounced out of the first round pretty easily.
 
Mailman

Mailman

Pwned by Hakeem
redwhiteblue said:
the Texans escaped a really bad/mediocore Jaguars team
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Divisional games are a different breed. That was a non-divisional opponent. I'd say the odds of Baltimore running the table with games against the Broncos, Giants, and Bengals are in our favor.
 
Dutchrudder

Dutchrudder

Hall of Fame
Thorn said:
Here are the AFC leaders remaining schedule:

New England: @ Miami, Houston, San Francisco, @ Jacksonville, Miami

Denver: Tampa Bay, @ Oakland, @ Baltimore, Cleveland, Kansas City

Baltimore: Pittsburgh, @ Washington, Denver, New York Giants, @ Cincinnati

Houston: @ Tennessee, @ New England, Indianapolis, Minnesota, @ Indianapolis

I can see New England losing two, Denver losing one, Baltimore losing two, and Houston losing two. If I'm right, the only one that would concern us is New England.

At this point though, I wouldn't predict anything with certainty.
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Denver pretty much has a cakewalk to go. They could easily win out, but would likely lose the tiebreaker to us.

The split with New England could come down to who wins the game in two weeks, but they would likely need to go 5-0 to make that a possibility.

If the Texans can go 3-2 over the next 5 games, they have an excellent shot of getting the #1 seed.
 
Yankee_In_TX

Yankee_In_TX

Dance Lindsay!
HTown2ATX said:
At first I was thinking I misheard as well but I perked up and listened to the rest of the conversation and while I don't remember the details, they definitely laid out some convoluted explanation of how that could potentially lose us the tie breakers and #1 seed.
Click to expand...
The 3 way tie breaker can sometimes be super convoluted and not common-sensical.

Probably what they were talking about.
 
Mailman

Mailman

Pwned by Hakeem
I suspect this is what they were talking about...there is a plausible scenario where the Texans would lose the #1 overall seed AND a first round bye.

We lose to NE and the Colts in week 17 to finish 13-3. Baltimore wins out and finishes 14-2. New England wins out and finishes the season 13-3.

The Pats get that tiebreaker with us by virtue of their head-to-head win.

#1 seed Baltimore
#2 seed NE
#3 seed Houston hosting a wild card game.....
 
GP

GP

Go Texans!
Thorn said:
Here are the AFC leaders remaining schedule:

New England: @ Miami, Houston, San Francisco, @ Jacksonville, Miami

Denver: Tampa Bay, @ Oakland, @ Baltimore, Cleveland, Kansas City

Baltimore: Pittsburgh, @ Washington, Denver, New York Giants, @ Cincinnati

Houston: @ Tennessee, @ New England, Indianapolis, Minnesota, @ Indianapolis

I can see New England losing two, Denver losing one, Baltimore losing two, and Houston losing two. If I'm right, the only one that would concern us is New England.

At this point though, I wouldn't predict anything with certainty.
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NE has the best chance to win out, IMO.

Denver is going to have a hard time beating the Bucs (Bucs are really good this year) with their Ravens and Browns games being excellent "trap games," IMO. So they could easily lose 2 maybe 3 games there.

Ravens? I can see them dropping any (and maybe ALL) of the games vs. Redskins, Giants, and avery hard road game against Bengals.

Houston, IMO, should win 3 of their last 5 games. I have us dropping the Patriots game and 1 of the 2 Colts games. Leaving us at 13-3. Goofy things can happen, though, so it's just as likely we bomb out and the Colts catch us and things get dicey for the AFCS title. This season looks like a sure thing, except for a pesky Colts team who didn't get the memo. :(
 
thunderkyss

thunderkyss

Just win baby!!!
Staff member
Contributor's Club
GP said:
Goofy things can happen, though, so it's just as likely we bomb out and the Colts catch us and things get dicey for the AFCS title. This season looks like a sure thing, except for a pesky Colts team who didn't get the memo. :(
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I don't think losing to the Colts is even a possibility. Had we played them earlier in the year, they'd have another loss & be 4 games behind.

The only chance they have of winning that last game is if we don't need it.

It might be as ugly as the Jags game, or the Lions game, but we won't lose either of those games if we need them. I just don't see it.
 
Allstar

Allstar

Bona fide
GP said:
NE has the best chance to win out, IMO.
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New England plays Houston and San Fransisco back to back. Those are the toughest two opponents that any these teams have on their schedule. I don't think they have the best shot to win out.
 
BeerTastesLikeVictory

BeerTastesLikeVictory

Custom Title
Allstar said:
New England plays Houston and San Fransisco back to back. Those are the toughest two opponents that any these teams have on their schedule. I don't think they have the best shot to win out.
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Also, for some reason Miami always puts up a fight against them and has been known to steal a game from them in recent seasons.
 
I

IDEXAN

Hall of Fame
Contributor's Club
GP said:
I can't believe the Colts have the record they have. I am astounded.
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Why ? NFL history is replete with examples of teams finishing with not just losing but totally miserable records one year and then making a remarkable rebound the very next into the playoffs. And then there's the fact that they had the opportunity to draft an extraordinary QB, and like they say the NFL is a QB league.
 
GP

GP

Go Texans!
Allstar said:
New England plays Houston and San Fransisco back to back. Those are the toughest two opponents that any these teams have on their schedule. I don't think they have the best shot to win out.
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New England has some serious momentum and historically they roll in December. They're tough, tough, tough in the home stretch of the reg season.

They rarely play down to opponents. We'd have to have our A+ game in order to beat them, and would need them to let up a bit.

San Francisco, IMO, is not as strong as they appear. I put them in the same category as Atlanta. I don't think the Pats would lose to the 49ers.

BeerTastesLikeVictory said:
Also, for some reason Miami always puts up a fight against them and has been known to steal a game from them in recent seasons.
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Now THAT is something I was going to mention. I think the Pats will likely lose one of the 2 Dolphins games.

IDEXAN said:
Why ? NFL history is replete with examples of teams finishing with not just losing but totally miserable records one year and then making a remarkable rebound the very next into the playoffs. And then there's the fact that they had the opportunity to draft an extraordinary QB, and like they say the NFL is a QB league.
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Why, you ask? Because outside of Reggie Wayne, their offense has practically unknown players. Even though Luck is considered to be this huge superstar right out of college, he still looks sub-Manning in many ways...and yet that team is gelling and finding ways to win games.

Nobody expected them to be this close behind us. They were supposed to get 8 or 9 wins at most. They have a good chance of playing us tough enough to win one of two from us, and even take advantage of the Texans should we stumble late in the reg season.

As a general note to everyone here:

Nothing is sewn up yet. These last 5 games are not W's yet. I would h-a-t-e for the Texans to let up now, and watch the Colts keep winning...and then have to beat the Colts to either win the AFCS or a wild card at worst. In fact, we must take at a minimum 3 out of the final 5 games to finish 13-3, IMO, in order to be safe for the playoffs. That gives us two "Crap Games" we could produce as long as we handle business in the other 3 games we have.

To me, we're going to beat the Titans next week...then that gives us the Pats. If we beat the Pats, IMO, we're in the drivers' seat the rest of the way. It would take Herculean efforts by our remaining opponents and our playoff seeding contending teams to knock us off the top perch of the AFC.

I will be on pins and needles the next two weeks.
 
thunderkyss

thunderkyss

Just win baby!!!
Staff member
Contributor's Club
GP said:
They rarely play down to opponents. We'd have to have our A+ game in order to beat them, and would need them to let up a bit.
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Well...... may as well not even show up. New England is clearly the better team. Just hand them the AFC Championship now & save all of us some time.
 
GP

GP

Go Texans!
Fiddler said:
Well...... may as well not even show up. New England is clearly the better team. Just hand them the AFC Championship now & save all of us some time.
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That's not what I said, yet how did I know you'd be replying that way???

Oh yeah. Patterns. I almost forgot.

I'm just saying that as Big Boy as we think our Texans have been this year, the Patriots are beyond Big Boy...they're like Galactus.

No shame or self-loathing when I say we have to bring our A+ game and get some help from them too. Just keeping it real. This is the big time now.
 
NitroGSXR

NitroGSXR

Super Sic #58
GP said:
That's not what I said, yet how did I know you'd be replying that way???

Oh yeah. Patterns. I almost forgot.

I'm just saying that as Big Boy as we think our Texans have been this year, the Patriots are beyond Big Boy...they're like Galactus.

No shame or self-loathing when I say we have to bring our A+ game and get some help from them too. Just keeping it real. This is the big time now.
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If both teams bring their A+ game... who do you think is going to pull it out? Just morbid curiosity.
 
GP

GP

Go Texans!
NitroGSXR said:
If both teams bring their A+ game... who do you think is going to pull it out? Just morbid curiosity.
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Can't even call it, if it comes down to a FG....I think we all know the answer.

But I'd give an edge to the Patriots. I take nothing away from our guys when I say that.
 
Thorn

Thorn

Dirty Old Man
Monday night in New England is going to be tough. If we don't get some defensive players back by then, it's going to be a long night for the Texans. But hey, any given Monday. LOL
 
TexanBacker93

TexanBacker93

Veteran
GP said:
That's not what I said, yet how did I know you'd be replying that way???

Oh yeah. Patterns. I almost forgot.

I'm just saying that as Big Boy as we think our Texans have been this year, the Patriots are beyond Big Boy...they're like Galactus.

No shame or self-loathing when I say we have to bring our A+ game and get some help from them too. Just keeping it real. This is the big time now.
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New England has had periods of sluggishness and inabilities to put away weaker opponents just as the Texans have. They've lost 3 with a SOV lower than ours. Granted, their SOS is higher, but not by much.

I see a lot of "this team beat so and so by more points than we did so they are better than us" from the doomsayers. Well, New England lost to Baltimore and we destroyed them. The transitive property of equality would mean we're better than NE. I know it doesn't work that way, but I think we can match up well with them. Brady could give us fits, but this team was built to beat Manning. I think they can beat Brady.

I don't think the Pats are worlds better than us and even if they win in 2 weeks I still won't buy it. If they come here and beat us in the playoffs I'll agree.

Any given Sunday.
 
thunderkyss

thunderkyss

Just win baby!!!
Staff member
Contributor's Club
TexanBacker93 said:
I see a lot of "this team beat so and so by more points than we did so they are better than us" from the doomsayers. Well, New England lost to Baltimore and we destroyed them. The transitive property of equality would mean we're better than NE. I know it doesn't work that way, but I think we can match up well with them. Brady could give us fits, but this team was built to beat Manning. I think they can beat Brady.
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I agree.... whoops, thought you were '76.

But still, you make good points. If our pass rush was working, New England likes to play the game we try to get other teams into. We want to make other teams one dimensional & throwing the ball alot.

If we get a lead & milk the clock, we'll make them desperate. But Brady likes to play with his back against the wall.

TexanBacker93 said:
I don't think the Pats are worlds better than us and even if they win in 2 weeks I still won't buy it. If they come here and beat us in the playoffs I'll agree.

Any given Sunday.
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Well, if we beat them it's only because they let up a little.
 
Texan_Bill

Texan_Bill

Hall of Fame
Man.... It's no wonder why I don't spend the time here that I used to. The overall level of quality posts, has significantly dissapated!!

*EDIT*

And I don't mean the fact that Thorn and JB are just old, senile, curmudgeons!

*EDIT*

Oh yeah... I'm looking at you too, drs23
 
GP

GP

Go Texans!
Texan_Bill said:
:mcnugget:
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He isn't really saying that, TB. It was his way of taking a jab at me over my comments earlier.

You see, Thunderkyss or Fiddler or DinkyDooDoo or whatever he wants to call himself this week, has determined that I'm selling our team short in the game vs Pats that's coming up in two weeks. So he's drumming up troll posts to try and create drama where there is none.

He's an eternal optimist. If someone says we might not be able to hang with a team, oh let's say in this case it's the Patriots (who have earned and STILL continue to earn their distinction as being the toughest team in NFL)...then, well, Thunderkyss A.K.A Fiddler has to post the ever popular "Why we don't even need to play that game then, do we?" LOL.

It was just his way of poking a stick at me. You came in on the thread a little late, but then again you've indirectly spared yourself his antics. So there you have it.
 
Norg

Norg

-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-
its really simple

Beat Tenn and Beat NE then the next week just sit back and watch if NE losses to the 49ers they we pretty much locked #1 seed

and can pretty much lose the next 3 games if we wanted 2 ...butttt doing tnat will most certinly allow INdy to make the playoffs LOL
 
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