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Compensatory picks
- Thread starter DerekLee1
- Start date
Doppelganger
None
That's not the way Compensatory picks work. Compensatory picks are awarded the year after based on a complex, secret formula. From what I have been able to gather these are some of the factors:
1. Players that are cut or not tendered as RFAs and ERFAs are not counted.
2. Players earning minimum salaries do not count.
3. Each player signed cancels out one player lost.
4. The round of the pick awarded is primarily determined by the annual value of the contract signed. Signed players cancel out lost players with equal contracts, then lower contracts, before canceling out higher contracts.
For example. We lost Dunta Robinson in 2010 but signed Wade Smith and Neil Rackers. DR was a true FA lost and Smith/Rackers were true FAs signed. Smith cancelled out DR and Rackers was a +1 for Htown.
Htown did not get a compensatory pick for DR becuase their value was +1. In order to get any pick of any kind, they would have needed to lose 2 additional FAs. Since that did not happen, Htown received zilch.
But, you may be asking: Doppelganger, the Texans did get the final pick in 2011(a year later) wasn't that a compensatory pick?
In this case no. Another NFL rule is that there are only a handful of compensatory picks per year. In this case there were no other compensatory picks awarded in the 7th round for 2011. Thus since picks were available, they were handed out to teams based on draft order until they ran out. Texans happened to get the last pick due to record.
So, in your scenario, if we lose MW but sign any other FA, we get zilch. Its all about a net loss/gain and then it goes to contracts to determine value.
Dutchrudder
Hall of Fame
There is a separate category for the type of pick the Texans got in 2011, it's called "supplemental compensatory picks". That's the type of comp pick we received. Any picks awarded for lost players are simply "compensatory picks."
If we lose Mario, Dreessen, Brisiel, Myers, Barber, Allen and Rackers, we're -7. We don't have any money to go after any other FA's. Say we're able to convince Rackers and Brisiel to stay but lose the others. We're still -5.
Now, based on last year's compensatory picks, if the Panthers can lose Peppers and Feeley and get a 3rd, 6th and 7th, I think Mario, Dreessen and Myers would warrant better than that.
http://www.nfl.com/draft/2011/tracker#dt-tabs:dt-by-round/dt-by-round-input:3
Now, based on last year's compensatory picks, if the Panthers can lose Peppers and Feeley and get a 3rd, 6th and 7th, I think Mario, Dreessen and Myers would warrant better than that.
http://www.nfl.com/draft/2011/tracker#dt-tabs:dt-by-round/dt-by-round-input:3
Vinny
shiny happy fan
as Doppelganger eluded to, it's not as simple as that. Nobody really knows the formula. There was a guy on KFFL that got pretty damn close every year though.
Well, Mario is about as certain as you can get to a 3rd round compensatory pick, assuming the Texans don't blow it by signing someone that would knock out the pick. The Texans' FO needs to keep this in mind for any free agents signed this year. I'd hate to see some case where they sign some low-level FA who they don't need badly, and that person effectively costs them a 3rd round pick.
For our numbers, if we look at the 16 players listed as FAs on the Texans' website, there are only 4 that I would think are pretty certain to make the cut as far as counting toward compensatory picks (if they leave): Brisiel, Dreessen, Myers, and Williams. Some others very well might also, but the FO has to be careful about how many higher-priced people they sign. They could easily turn around and lose some good compensatory picks if they're not careful. For example that third-string QB they might look to sign for insurance would get a lot more expensive if he also costs a mid-round pick.
Back to Doppleganger's original post, I think there is one other provision where if you have the same number of people signed as lost, you can still get a compensatory pick if the value of those lost is significantly greater than those signed. If I remember, in this case, it's a much later round pick. For us, that could mean that even if we sign the same number of FAs that we lose, we could still get a 7th or 6th for Mario, which would still stink.
Here's the blog of they guy who used to do the compensatory pick analysis. He didn't do them last year, but if you look at his archives, I think he's got the details of the formula worked out as much as anyone publicly as been able to figure them out.
Oh, and one other point - I'm pretty sure that compensatory picks can't be traded. Not sure if that's what DerekLee1 meant (or if you meant other trades that can be made since we do have compensatories).
For our numbers, if we look at the 16 players listed as FAs on the Texans' website, there are only 4 that I would think are pretty certain to make the cut as far as counting toward compensatory picks (if they leave): Brisiel, Dreessen, Myers, and Williams. Some others very well might also, but the FO has to be careful about how many higher-priced people they sign. They could easily turn around and lose some good compensatory picks if they're not careful. For example that third-string QB they might look to sign for insurance would get a lot more expensive if he also costs a mid-round pick.
Back to Doppleganger's original post, I think there is one other provision where if you have the same number of people signed as lost, you can still get a compensatory pick if the value of those lost is significantly greater than those signed. If I remember, in this case, it's a much later round pick. For us, that could mean that even if we sign the same number of FAs that we lose, we could still get a 7th or 6th for Mario, which would still stink.
Here's the blog of they guy who used to do the compensatory pick analysis. He didn't do them last year, but if you look at his archives, I think he's got the details of the formula worked out as much as anyone publicly as been able to figure them out.
Oh, and one other point - I'm pretty sure that compensatory picks can't be traded. Not sure if that's what DerekLee1 meant (or if you meant other trades that can be made since we do have compensatories).
welsh texan
You may say I’m a dreamer but I’m not the only one
No, resigning your own doesn't count against. Resigning someone else's does.
I wonder if that plays into the way a team thinks about FA at all? Like if you've got 1 guy who's gonna be marginal to make the team in camp, you might not want to take him cos you're giving up a 3rd round pick for him??
dalemurphy
Hall of Fame
No, Myers is ours..
The issue is how many UFA we lose relative to how many UFA (from the other 31 teams) we sign... Beyond that, it's about the level of pay and perhaps performance that factors in. Odds are good that the Texans will get some compensation this year... perhaps multiple picks but it is way too early to know what will happen.
Free agents have to qualify as significant... For instance, I believe Neil Rackers' contract to qualify two years ago. Hopefully the Vickers deal counts as well. Though we would get next to nothing for Vickers, he would make the current tally 2-0... which, as things stand at this moment, would mean a 3rd round pick for Mario.
majestrate
Rookie
Think of it like "if 2011 team = 2012 team, no impact; if 2011 team != 2012 team, impact"
In terms getting compensatory picks, what you really want is for the Bulman, Barberish type guys to sign qualifying offers to get your net loss up. Just out of functioning for 2012, the Texans wil probably sign two or three guys who qualify. For me, if comes down to a guy to help me win in 2012 versus pick number 100 overall in the 2013 draft then give me the player now.
I thought we released Vickers? Players you release do not count, only those whose contract ran out/was voided. So, when Winston signs somewhere, he won't help us, either.
That's part of what worries me. I expect we are going to have to sign some people to replace not just the FAs who leave, but also the ones we released or will release.
ChampionTexan
Hall of Fame
Yeah, but if that were the case, then we'd be in line to be awarded up a pick for losing him, and then lose it when we signed him back. (But no, it doesn't work that way)
That all depends. Sign someone critical like Joseph or Manning and I am fine not thinking much about the compensatory implications. But, what if the decision comes down to:
- Sign some 2nd string lineman for $1 million and have to give up a top 100 pick next year
- Sign some 2nd string lineman for $650K and keep the top 100 pick
In that case, the second option looks a whole lot better than the first, even if the player's not quite as good. To say you don't worry about what you are losing in compensatory picks makes no sense - it's like placing no value on future draft picks.
Yes. Anything we get for Mario would be in the 2013 draft. I don't think we'll get any compensatory picks this year, since the Joseph, Manning (and maybe other) signings probably cancel whoever we lost (I don't even remember now if we lost anyone significant last year).
Well, I didn't say don't worry about them that at all, but I would not (not my call though) place getting that pick over winning in 2012. My guess is that there will be a situation or two where what you are talking about exactly happens. That assumes the Texans lose at least 3 or 4 players qualifying loses. Right now with only one, I would not handicap myself as GM trying make darn sure "got something" for Mario.
dalemurphy
Hall of Fame
Thanks. My mistake. Sorry to confuse the issue. Vickers was released so he does not qualify.
TexanBacker93
Veteran
We need Mario to be healthy and have a dominant year this year. Unless we bring in Manning we should be in shape to get a 3rd round pick. I'd just hate to have him be hurt this season and then have 5 great years after that and we'd get nothing.
I don't believe his performance matters. It's about the contract that he signs. Being the largest in NFL history, I can't see us getting any lower than a 3rd for him. And no way do we sign anyone anywhere near that kind of contract, so it's a safe bet we'll get at least one pick for him next year. Thanks, Buffalo!
TexanBacker93
Veteran
In this article it says playing time is part of the formula. This is for last season's draft, though. I don't know if any changes were made in the new CBA.
http://www.nfl.com/draft/story/0900...tributes-compensatory-draft-picks-to-23-clubs
http://www.nfl.com/draft/story/0900...tributes-compensatory-draft-picks-to-23-clubs
The new CBA states that "the rules and proceedures regarding compensatory draft selections previously agreed upon by the NFL & NFLPA shall reman in effect, subsequent to any future changes as to which the parties may agree."
Unless they had some separate negotiations to deal with compensatory picks after the new CBA that we don't know about, the rules are the same.
Maddict5
Hall of Fame
does this mean if we sign some FA punter (other than turk), we're gonna get nothing for mario? or does it mean we get a 4/5/6 instead of a 3?
also what about backups/camp bodies? do they count?
edit: nvm i looked it up
for any1 else wondering, basically we'll prob get a lesser pick if we sign the same amount of qualifying FA's as we lose. if we sign more fa's than we lose we get nothing.
...and obviously camp bodies dont qualify as they dont make the salary requirements
also what about backups/camp bodies? do they count?
edit: nvm i looked it up
for any1 else wondering, basically we'll prob get a lesser pick if we sign the same amount of qualifying FA's as we lose. if we sign more fa's than we lose we get nothing.
...and obviously camp bodies dont qualify as they dont make the salary requirements
I am going to attempt to keep a running total
Qualifying free agetns lost
Mario Willaims
Mike Breisel
Qualifying free signed
none
Texans 2-0
woiuld get 2 compensatory picks in the 2013 draft as St. Patrick's Day 2012
Qualifying free agetns lost
Mario Willaims
Mike Breisel
Qualifying free signed
none
Texans 2-0
woiuld get 2 compensatory picks in the 2013 draft as St. Patrick's Day 2012
MidtownMikey
Noob
Another thing to consider is when the free-agent is signed. From my understanding, signings after June 1st do not qualify unless their previous team made them a qualifying offer (at least a 10% raise over previous salary). It would not surprise me then if to guarantee the comp picks and also to first try to fill in the draft that signings of depth from other teams occurs after June 1st. The Texans also tend to like to look at waivers of other teams during training camp.
I would like to see us sign Rackers before the draft though. If they don't, that might be a signal they truly do want to draft the A&M kicker in a late round.
I would like to see us sign Rackers before the draft though. If they don't, that might be a signal they truly do want to draft the A&M kicker in a late round.
Hottoddie
Veteran
My question is, can you receive a pick higher than the 3rd round?
If so, then I'm going to be rooting for Mario to get 20 sacks (0 against us) next year & that he plays in every game.
As for the issue of losing the 3rd or higher pick by signing an equal number of FA's, the team has to decide if the player they're pursuing in free agency is better than any player they could find at that point in the draft.
For example, would you value these players higher than a late 3rd round pick if they were in the draft this year?
Peyton Manning (QB)
Michael Bush (RB)
Brandon Lloyd (WR)
David Hawthorne (MLB/OLB)
Laron Landry (SS)
Reggie Nelson (FS)
Demetrius Bell (OT)
Marcus McNeil (OT)
I know there are age & health concerns with some of these players, but if they fill a need & can help you win now, would they be worth a late 3rd round pick?
If so, then I'm going to be rooting for Mario to get 20 sacks (0 against us) next year & that he plays in every game.
As for the issue of losing the 3rd or higher pick by signing an equal number of FA's, the team has to decide if the player they're pursuing in free agency is better than any player they could find at that point in the draft.
For example, would you value these players higher than a late 3rd round pick if they were in the draft this year?
Peyton Manning (QB)
Michael Bush (RB)
Brandon Lloyd (WR)
David Hawthorne (MLB/OLB)
Laron Landry (SS)
Reggie Nelson (FS)
Demetrius Bell (OT)
Marcus McNeil (OT)
I know there are age & health concerns with some of these players, but if they fill a need & can help you win now, would they be worth a late 3rd round pick?
MidtownMikey
Noob
If the player signed has more value than a 3rd round pick, then sure, I'd be in favor of signing them.
My worry would be if they signed a different kicker than Rackers and something like that cost us the 3rd round pick. That I would not be in favor of. One potential option (though not likely valid with our salary cap issues) is to sign a player but then cut them before week 9 so they don't count for the compensatory picks (at least it sounds from what I read they have to be on the team or IR for 9 weeks to count).
And no, you cannot get better than a 3rd round pick from compensatory picks.
My worry would be if they signed a different kicker than Rackers and something like that cost us the 3rd round pick. That I would not be in favor of. One potential option (though not likely valid with our salary cap issues) is to sign a player but then cut them before week 9 so they don't count for the compensatory picks (at least it sounds from what I read they have to be on the team or IR for 9 weeks to count).
And no, you cannot get better than a 3rd round pick from compensatory picks.
Dutchrudder
Hall of Fame
So far the Texans are 3-0 in the comp pick running.
Players Lost (my estimate):
Mario (3rd)
Brisiel (5th)
Jason Allen (6/7th)
All three should qualify for picks. It would be nice to have lots of picks next year, because we will likely lose a lot of depth due to being up against the cap after re-signing Duane Brown, Schaub and Barwin.
Players Lost (my estimate):
Mario (3rd)
Brisiel (5th)
Jason Allen (6/7th)
All three should qualify for picks. It would be nice to have lots of picks next year, because we will likely lose a lot of depth due to being up against the cap after re-signing Duane Brown, Schaub and Barwin.
Of course, the Texans would need to have a net 3 loss to be awarded these picks.
Mario (3rd) - absolutely
Brisiel (5th) - I think this is correct, seeing that the Vikings received a 5th after losing Matt Birk (whose contract averaged $ 4 million/year) to the Ravens.
Jason Allen (6/7th) - Haven't seen what Allen signed for. I think he will need to sign a contract that averages more than $2 million/year to get the pick in the 6th round.
No, the earliest compensatory selections occur between the 3rd and 4th rounds.
Manning and some of the other players listed wouldn't count against the compensatory pick formula, because they are considered "street" free agents. They were cut or released rather than have their contracts expire.
Dutchrudder
Hall of Fame
I was thinking of Wade Smith as a comparison. He netted the Chiefs a 6th, but he signed for 4 years 12 million. Brisiel got 4 years 20 million, so I figure he ought to be worth about a 5th depending on playtime. Possibly a 4th, but I doubt it.
I haven't seen Allen's numbers yet, but I'm guessing it will be 2 mill a year. That could be 6/7th depending on playtimie. I also expect us to sign some scrapheap FAs, so we probably will cancel him out anyways.
Only if the free agents the Texans sign receive a qualifying offer (usually over $1 million/year). Plus, the Texans could still lose Dreessen and Rackers. I can't see the Texans going on a free agent spending spree that would endanger the Mario compensatory pick, and I think the Texans will wind up with at least 3.
Xcellerator
Waterboy
Allen signed for 2/8.2Million! Whoa! Overpaid.
http://www.cincyjungle.com/2012/3/17/2881210/jason-allens-contract-for-two-years-and-8-2-million
http://www.cincyjungle.com/2012/3/17/2881210/jason-allens-contract-for-two-years-and-8-2-million
Dutchrudder
Hall of Fame
Holy crap! That's great news for us! Might push his comp pick up to a 5th, or at least a 6th I would assume. Never thought he would get more than 2.5 million a year. I guess the Bengals are hard up after not signing any free agents before yesterday.
Well, the system has been in place since the salary cap era began. Nothing new.
And there can be good players plucked with these picks. Among the notable compensatory selections are Hines Ward, Marques Colston, Larry Allen, and this QB that New England picked up after the regular portion of the 6th round in 2000. Tom Brady, I believe, is his name.
Yes, maybe back-to-back picks in the 5th for Allen and Briesel. I thought the guy did an OK job for the Texans, but no way is he a $4 millon/year player. Cincy has too much cap room on their hands and no one wants to take it.
Curent qualifying loses 3
no qualify signing yet
running total 3 compensatory picks.
Follow-up query:
Is there a limit to how many comp picks that are handed out; overall and per round?
Overall (league wide) there will be 32 compensation picks handed out. If there are not 32 picks allocated to compensate for lost free agents, the remaining will be given to the teams with the worst records/highest draft positions at the end of the 7th round. The Texans have received a few picks due to this circumstance.
An individual team is allowed a maximum of 4 compensatory selections. Even if the Texans were +5 in lost qualifying free agents (Mario, Briesel, Allen, Dreessen, Rackers lost while signing none), the Texans would only receive 4 picks.
There is not a maximum number of picks per round. What round the pick is awarded is determined by some formula involving the player's contract and performance that is only known by the league and some math whiz that once posted on the kffl forum. Even the teams themselves don't know the formula.
ckhouston
Veteran
I understand the system, guess my point is that it is flawed.
Dutchrudder
Hall of Fame
It's the NFL where sucking is rewarded with the top draft picks, small market teams are kept competitive with the salary cap/revenue sharing and teams that do well are precluded from signing free agents. Comp picks are just another way to help keep up the parity in the league. The NFL is socialism at its finest, if you want a capitalistic sport, follow the EPL. That's a real dog-eat-dog league.
SCOTTexans
Rookie
According to NFL Network's Jason La Canfora, Jason Allens contract is for two years and $8.2 million.
Any idea on how much this would help the picks? or if it does? its over my head
Any idea on how much this would help the picks? or if it does? its over my head
So if we lose Rackers what do you think we'll get for him? My guess is somewhere between a 4th and a 6th. He had a pretty good year as far as kickers go, but probably not good enough for a 4th. I hope they sign him though. We don't need another hole to fill in the draft, and I doubt Kubes wants to rely on a rookie kicker, even if he came from A&M.
see posts around 28-32 in this thread
SCOTTexans
Rookie
Yea i read it after the Post.... didnt realize i was a day behind the times
With the Dreessen defection, the Texans are now +4 in compensatory picks.