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PFF’s Top 50 Free Agents
February 13th, 2012 | Author: Khaled Elsayed
To kick off our Free Agency preview, we’re diving right in and laying out exactly who we think are the best players available.
That’s right, our analysis team got together, and–after an astonishing three-hour meeting that featured many a put down, the occasional swear word, and an awful lot of eye rolling–we finally decided on our Top 50 and how valuable each of them are.
We’ve used some liberal criteria to determine that some players are not eligible for this list because they won’t be hitting free agency. That means turning a blind eye to restricted free agents Mike Wallace, Arian Foster, Michael Bennett and Lardarius Webb. It also means those players extremely likely to get tagged have been ignored; so, no Drew Brees, no Ray Rice or Matt Forte, and no Calais Campbell.
Other than that? Well, all free agents are fair game in our Top 50.
1. Mario Williams, DE/ OLB
There’s every possibility the Texans tag the first pick of the 2006 draft, but given how much it will cost to eventually re-sign him, they could just as easily stay to go with Brooks Reed and Connor Barwin who were part of an excellent defense last year. Williams would probably benefit from a switch back to the defensive end spot, though his start to life in the 3-4 suggests he could fit into either scheme.
2. Brent Grimes, CB
With Lardarius Webb a restricted free agent, Grimes jumps to the top of our cornerback rankings, and up to second on our list of available free agents. One of the best cornerbacks in the league, Grimes has been exceptional over the past two years–breaking up 28 passes and intercepting six more in that time frame.
3. John Abraham, DE
Abraham isn’t getting any younger, but then his production isn’t showing any signs of tailing off. You may not get many good years, but unless his play falls off a cliff you’ll still be getting a pass rusher who gets as much pressure as anyone. Has ranked among our top seven defensive ends in each of the last four years.
4. Carl Nicks, G
The Saints may have invested in the wrong guard given how much better Nicks has been than Jahri Evans over the past two years, but if they can’t re-sign the former Nebraska lineman, that haste could be to the benefit of wherever Nicks lands. The mauling guard has finished first (2009), first (2010) and second (2011) in our rankings the past three years.
5. Cortland Finnegan, CB
The Andre Johnson punching bag isn’t the most popular player in the league, and that kind of unpopularity can take away from what a good player he can be. This year, where he seemed less interested in antagonizing receivers, and more focused on shutting them down–may have been his finest year to date. Not just playing outside, but doing an excellent job in the slot, Finnegan may be the most versatile cornerback available.
6. Vincent Jackson, WR
In terms of pure talent, Jackson could go No. 1 overall. But there’s a cloud hanging over him that sees him never that far from a suspension, and the fact the last two years haven’t been as good as the two that proceeded it. Could very well be the biggest impact player available in free agency.
7. Evan Mathis, G
It’s one of the great mysteries of NFL scouting how a player like Mathis hasn’t been locked down before. One of the most technically sound and agile guards, Mathis may be 31 this year, but his low mileage makes him a safe investment. Only his limited body of work prevents him from going further.
8. Robert Mathis, DE
He may be a one-dimensional pass rusher who has always had Dwight Freeney opposite him, but in a league where getting to the QB matters so much, Mathis is incredibly valuable. Last year was something of a down year, and even then he still picked up 48 combined sacks, hits and hurries. Possible franchise tag candidate.
9. Chris Myers, C
Finding elite players at any position isn’t easy, so Myers should attract plenty of interest as an agile center who has got better year on year since starting. Our top-ranked center in 2011, Myers could prove a steal if someone can pry him away from Houston.
10. Cliff Avril, DE
The combination of Avrils’ age and speed sees his value shooting up to teams looking for a long-term stud. A talented pass rusher, Avril has yet to produce as consistently as some of the defensive ends above him on the list, so there is that question mark over him. Time very much on his side.
11. Brandon Carr, CB
Some view Carr as the top corner on the market. Others see him as purely a No. 2 type. This ranking should tell you where we think he fits. Capable of playing very well, his best games tend to come against the worst quarterbacks. That is always a worrying trend.
12. Matt Flynn, QB
This may seem a little high for Flynn, but such is his potential (and such is the value of quarterbacks) that if he ends up being what a team expects him to be, then he’s the top free agent out there. The Packers’ backup QB has looked good when presented an opportunity to do so, and looks to have as high a ceiling as (or higher than) Kevin Kolb. He could be the biggest decision a franchise makes this offseason.
13. Jermichael Finley, TE
One of our analysts wanted Finley a lot higher, citing him as being the type of mismatch that the NFL is becoming all about. Perhaps he will go on to be that player, but he’s not there yet so will have to settle for a spot outside the Top 10.
14. Stephen Tulloch, LB
It was a surprise to us that teams didn’t make a bigger effort to lock Tulloch down last year. They may all pay the price this year after his excellent year in Detroit likely increased his demands on what he was looking for last year.
15. Dwayne Bowe, WR
Bowe has the kind of top-end talent that scouts will rave about, even if he isn’t always the most consistent of receivers. Finished with our 11th-highest receiving grade this year, one season after finishing 13th.
16. Carlos Rogers, CB
The concern with Rogers is that as good as he was for the first half of the season, his play slipped in the second half. Factor that in with his ups and downs in years gone by and Rogers is something of a question mark. Still, his talent and versatility makes him a gamble plenty of cornerback-needy teams could make.
17. Jared Gaither, OT
After missing all of 2010, a false start penalty for Kansas City likely got the career of Gaither back on track, as the Chiefs cut him and he flourished at the end of the year in San Diego. The character and health concerns are there, but if you can look past that, you’re planting your eyes on a Top 5 left tackle.
18. Sione Pouha, DT
The only thing holding Pouha back is that you can scheme against him by simply getting the Jets in their sub package. He offers very little push in the passing game, but is so good in the run game that any team with a problem stopping the run (regardless of scheme) needs to make an offer to his agent. Second-highest number of defensive stops of all defensive tackles this year.
19. Marques Colston, WR
If you use Colston right and keep him healthy, he’s one of the biggest mismatches in the league at the receiver position. But he’s had an awful lot of surgeries over the past five years, and will need a team to realize he’s more than an outside receiver; last year he was ninth in receiving yards from the slot.
20. Brodrick Bunkley, DT
11.3% of all plays Bunkley was in run defense ended up with him making a defensive stop; the most of all DTs in the league. Outside of an injury-plagued 2010, Bunkley has always brought disruption when teams have run at him and there’s no reason to see that changing.
21. Jason Jones, DT
With Jones you almost have to completely discard his 2011 year where the Titans used him at defensive end. You go back to when he was used at DT and you’ve got a guy too quick for guards, making plays on every down. Put Jones back in the right scheme, and at the right spot, and you have one of the most explosive tackles in the league.
22. Brandon Lloyd, WR
Lloyd seems like he’s been around longer than his 30 years of age would suggest, but even then he’s got plenty of tread left on his tires. The big concern is whether he can maintain his last two years of play, where’s he emerged as one of the hardest-to-cover receivers in the league.
23. Scott Wells, C
The Packers’ center has been better every year, leading to his finishing fourth in our center rankings this year. Solid technically, Wells was consistent but never quite reached height of his opening week tour de force that earned such rave reviews. Still, quality centers are hard to come by and Wells is in that bracket.
24. David Hawthorne, LB
After his 2009 and 2010 seasons, this year was a tad disappointing for Hawthorne. That’s not to say he played badly, but injuries seemed to slow him. We’d fully expect a healthy Hawthorne to plug in to any defensive scheme and make a more than positive contribution. It’s why he’s earned a +45.7 grade from us over the past three years.
25. Ben Grubbs, G
The Ravens’ Grubbs is a Top 10 guard in a league low on talented guards, but his ceiling isn’t such that he’ll have the impact to dramatically improve an offensive line.
http://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2012/02/13/pffs-top-50-free-agents/
February 13th, 2012 | Author: Khaled Elsayed
To kick off our Free Agency preview, we’re diving right in and laying out exactly who we think are the best players available.
That’s right, our analysis team got together, and–after an astonishing three-hour meeting that featured many a put down, the occasional swear word, and an awful lot of eye rolling–we finally decided on our Top 50 and how valuable each of them are.
We’ve used some liberal criteria to determine that some players are not eligible for this list because they won’t be hitting free agency. That means turning a blind eye to restricted free agents Mike Wallace, Arian Foster, Michael Bennett and Lardarius Webb. It also means those players extremely likely to get tagged have been ignored; so, no Drew Brees, no Ray Rice or Matt Forte, and no Calais Campbell.
Other than that? Well, all free agents are fair game in our Top 50.
1. Mario Williams, DE/ OLB
There’s every possibility the Texans tag the first pick of the 2006 draft, but given how much it will cost to eventually re-sign him, they could just as easily stay to go with Brooks Reed and Connor Barwin who were part of an excellent defense last year. Williams would probably benefit from a switch back to the defensive end spot, though his start to life in the 3-4 suggests he could fit into either scheme.
2. Brent Grimes, CB
With Lardarius Webb a restricted free agent, Grimes jumps to the top of our cornerback rankings, and up to second on our list of available free agents. One of the best cornerbacks in the league, Grimes has been exceptional over the past two years–breaking up 28 passes and intercepting six more in that time frame.
3. John Abraham, DE
Abraham isn’t getting any younger, but then his production isn’t showing any signs of tailing off. You may not get many good years, but unless his play falls off a cliff you’ll still be getting a pass rusher who gets as much pressure as anyone. Has ranked among our top seven defensive ends in each of the last four years.
4. Carl Nicks, G
The Saints may have invested in the wrong guard given how much better Nicks has been than Jahri Evans over the past two years, but if they can’t re-sign the former Nebraska lineman, that haste could be to the benefit of wherever Nicks lands. The mauling guard has finished first (2009), first (2010) and second (2011) in our rankings the past three years.
5. Cortland Finnegan, CB
The Andre Johnson punching bag isn’t the most popular player in the league, and that kind of unpopularity can take away from what a good player he can be. This year, where he seemed less interested in antagonizing receivers, and more focused on shutting them down–may have been his finest year to date. Not just playing outside, but doing an excellent job in the slot, Finnegan may be the most versatile cornerback available.
6. Vincent Jackson, WR
In terms of pure talent, Jackson could go No. 1 overall. But there’s a cloud hanging over him that sees him never that far from a suspension, and the fact the last two years haven’t been as good as the two that proceeded it. Could very well be the biggest impact player available in free agency.
7. Evan Mathis, G
It’s one of the great mysteries of NFL scouting how a player like Mathis hasn’t been locked down before. One of the most technically sound and agile guards, Mathis may be 31 this year, but his low mileage makes him a safe investment. Only his limited body of work prevents him from going further.
8. Robert Mathis, DE
He may be a one-dimensional pass rusher who has always had Dwight Freeney opposite him, but in a league where getting to the QB matters so much, Mathis is incredibly valuable. Last year was something of a down year, and even then he still picked up 48 combined sacks, hits and hurries. Possible franchise tag candidate.
9. Chris Myers, C
Finding elite players at any position isn’t easy, so Myers should attract plenty of interest as an agile center who has got better year on year since starting. Our top-ranked center in 2011, Myers could prove a steal if someone can pry him away from Houston.
10. Cliff Avril, DE
The combination of Avrils’ age and speed sees his value shooting up to teams looking for a long-term stud. A talented pass rusher, Avril has yet to produce as consistently as some of the defensive ends above him on the list, so there is that question mark over him. Time very much on his side.
11. Brandon Carr, CB
Some view Carr as the top corner on the market. Others see him as purely a No. 2 type. This ranking should tell you where we think he fits. Capable of playing very well, his best games tend to come against the worst quarterbacks. That is always a worrying trend.
12. Matt Flynn, QB
This may seem a little high for Flynn, but such is his potential (and such is the value of quarterbacks) that if he ends up being what a team expects him to be, then he’s the top free agent out there. The Packers’ backup QB has looked good when presented an opportunity to do so, and looks to have as high a ceiling as (or higher than) Kevin Kolb. He could be the biggest decision a franchise makes this offseason.
13. Jermichael Finley, TE
One of our analysts wanted Finley a lot higher, citing him as being the type of mismatch that the NFL is becoming all about. Perhaps he will go on to be that player, but he’s not there yet so will have to settle for a spot outside the Top 10.
14. Stephen Tulloch, LB
It was a surprise to us that teams didn’t make a bigger effort to lock Tulloch down last year. They may all pay the price this year after his excellent year in Detroit likely increased his demands on what he was looking for last year.
15. Dwayne Bowe, WR
Bowe has the kind of top-end talent that scouts will rave about, even if he isn’t always the most consistent of receivers. Finished with our 11th-highest receiving grade this year, one season after finishing 13th.
16. Carlos Rogers, CB
The concern with Rogers is that as good as he was for the first half of the season, his play slipped in the second half. Factor that in with his ups and downs in years gone by and Rogers is something of a question mark. Still, his talent and versatility makes him a gamble plenty of cornerback-needy teams could make.
17. Jared Gaither, OT
After missing all of 2010, a false start penalty for Kansas City likely got the career of Gaither back on track, as the Chiefs cut him and he flourished at the end of the year in San Diego. The character and health concerns are there, but if you can look past that, you’re planting your eyes on a Top 5 left tackle.
18. Sione Pouha, DT
The only thing holding Pouha back is that you can scheme against him by simply getting the Jets in their sub package. He offers very little push in the passing game, but is so good in the run game that any team with a problem stopping the run (regardless of scheme) needs to make an offer to his agent. Second-highest number of defensive stops of all defensive tackles this year.
19. Marques Colston, WR
If you use Colston right and keep him healthy, he’s one of the biggest mismatches in the league at the receiver position. But he’s had an awful lot of surgeries over the past five years, and will need a team to realize he’s more than an outside receiver; last year he was ninth in receiving yards from the slot.
20. Brodrick Bunkley, DT
11.3% of all plays Bunkley was in run defense ended up with him making a defensive stop; the most of all DTs in the league. Outside of an injury-plagued 2010, Bunkley has always brought disruption when teams have run at him and there’s no reason to see that changing.
21. Jason Jones, DT
With Jones you almost have to completely discard his 2011 year where the Titans used him at defensive end. You go back to when he was used at DT and you’ve got a guy too quick for guards, making plays on every down. Put Jones back in the right scheme, and at the right spot, and you have one of the most explosive tackles in the league.
22. Brandon Lloyd, WR
Lloyd seems like he’s been around longer than his 30 years of age would suggest, but even then he’s got plenty of tread left on his tires. The big concern is whether he can maintain his last two years of play, where’s he emerged as one of the hardest-to-cover receivers in the league.
23. Scott Wells, C
The Packers’ center has been better every year, leading to his finishing fourth in our center rankings this year. Solid technically, Wells was consistent but never quite reached height of his opening week tour de force that earned such rave reviews. Still, quality centers are hard to come by and Wells is in that bracket.
24. David Hawthorne, LB
After his 2009 and 2010 seasons, this year was a tad disappointing for Hawthorne. That’s not to say he played badly, but injuries seemed to slow him. We’d fully expect a healthy Hawthorne to plug in to any defensive scheme and make a more than positive contribution. It’s why he’s earned a +45.7 grade from us over the past three years.
25. Ben Grubbs, G
The Ravens’ Grubbs is a Top 10 guard in a league low on talented guards, but his ceiling isn’t such that he’ll have the impact to dramatically improve an offensive line.
http://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2012/02/13/pffs-top-50-free-agents/