AFC
1. New England Patriots (13-3, 66.7 percent)
2011: 13-3, No. 1 seed
As long as the Patriots have Tom Brady and Bill Belichick, there will be many a game won in New England. The Pats were one of three offenses that separated themselves from the rest of the league, winning with their No. 3 opponent-adjusted passing attack and maintaining success with the sixth-most efficient running game in the NFL. Despite their No. 28 ranked opponent-adjusted pass defense, the Patriots won 13 games but once again fell short in the Super Bowl. The last time New England didn't win 10 games in a season? 2002.
2. Pittsburgh Steelers (11-5, 60.4)
2011: 12-4, No. 5 seed
The Steelers were victims of the injury bug this year, losing key players on both sides of the ball for extended periods of time. Even with their M.A.S.H. unit, Big Ben had a career year, leading the AFC's No. 2 opponent-adjusted passing offense. But, the Steel City is known for its archetypal defense, and that is where Pittsburgh came up short. The Steelers' defense, mostly because of a lack of turnovers, ranked No. 14 in the league after adjusting for the strength of opposing offenses. Expect Pittsburgh to bounce back and regain defensive dominance in 2012, although it remains to be seen what will emerge on the offensive side of the ball with Bruce Arians' unceremonious, very un-Steelers like dismissal.
3. San Diego Chargers (10-6, 55.5)
2011: 8-8, missed playoffs
The Chargers owned the No. 6 opponent-adjusted offense in the league this year, even though Philip Rivers threw a career-high 20 interceptions. The San Diego defense, however, ranked No. 28 after adjusting for strength of opponents, allowing 40 points a league-average defense would have prevented if put in similar situations. All that said, the Chargers play in an extremely weak division and should be able to come out on top, barring the critical turnovers they committed this season.
4. Houston Texans (9-7, 50.2)
2011: 10-6, No. 3 seed
With a healthy Matt Schaub and a surprisingly top-notch defense, the Texans are a force to be reckoned with. The pass defense, which ranked dead last in 2010, improved dramatically, finishing as the No. 5 opponent-adjusted pass D in the NFL. Houston's playoff potential, however, depends as much on its performance as it does on whether Peyton Manning will be returning to Indianapolis. With Arian Foster (if he re-signs), Schaub and Andre Johnson, though -- you have to give them a puncher's chance even if Manning is back.
5. Baltimore Ravens (10-6, 55.6)
2011: 12-4, No. 2 seed
Ray Lewis will be returning to the Ravens, and their defense should be just as stout in 2012 despite the ravages of age and the dispiriting effect of a heartbreaking loss in Foxborough. The Baltimore defense prevented a touchdown per game from being scored that a league-average defense would have allowed, ranking it No. 3 in the league. Add in the steady play of Ray Rice, and Torrey Smith with a year under his belt, and you have a team that will battle for a playoff spot year in and year out.
6. New York Jets (10-6, 50.4)
2011: 8-8, missed playoffs
Much like the Bears, the Jets finished the season in dismal form, losing three straight games and causing much uproar in the notoriously brutal New York media. Although there are rumors of Peyton Manning going to the Big Apple, Rex Ryan can rely on his AFC-best defense to give the Jets a shot at the postseason. Mark Sanchez and the New York passing offense ranked No. 29 in the league after adjusting for strength of opponents. In fact, if the Jets' passing offense were replaced by a league-average one, it would score an additional touchdown per game -- that's 112 points throughout the course of the season.
