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Foster a 1 year wonder?

D

dinkatoid

Waterboy
Via Rotoworld:

Texans owner Bob McNair said that Arian Foster won't get a long-term contract "based on one season."
McNair wants Foster, who is set to make just $525,000 this season, to prove that last year wasn't a fluke. "I think Arian understands if he performs this year, shows that he can be consistent, he'll be rewarded," McNair said. Foster has all the motivation and the talent to repeat last year's dominant performance. He's our No. 1 overall fantasy pick. Aug 11, 9:05 AM

http://www.rotoworld.com/player/nfl/5469/arian-foster

My question is, if Foster has another solid year, will this end up costing us more to lock him up (or the possibility of losing him in FA)?
 
I kind of see-saw on this. On one hand I believe he's already proved he wasn't a one year wonder. Remember if it weren't for Arian taking over in the last quarter of the 2009 season, we probably don't see 9-7 because he did really well in those games. It could also be argued that if he started earlier, the Texans probably go to the playoffs that year. Remember going into the 2010 season the question was if he could do what he did in the last part of 09? Well he did that.

On the other hand I think if you are an organization trying to make the playoffs, then you hang that carrot out in front of probably your most hungry player.
 
I dont think the Texans have the cap to sign him even if they wanted to. Foster needs the Texans offense as much as the Texans offense needs him right now. Not that we are a plug and play system, but finding another ZBS carrier isnt exactly the hardest position to fill.
 
Thorn said:
If he comes out of the gate strong, he'll be locked and signed by the bye week.
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This is the best case scenario, and one I think has a realistic chance of happening.

If Foster has a good season, and for whatever reason can't be signed to a long-term contract before it's over, he can still be tendered and restricted giving the Texans the right to either receive draft pick compensation or match the contract offered by another team. This is how David Anderson was retained a couple of years ago, even though he agreed to a contract with the Broncos. This method actually lets someone else due the negotiating. I think the existence of this possibility was also why paying Arian more than the $500K plus that he's making this year was likely never a serious consideration for the Texans.
 
False Start said:
Lets just wait and see what he does this season before we tag him with the one year wonder tag. :wadepalm:
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I am not suggesting he is, that was in direct reference to the writing from Rotoworld, saying he had to prove it for more than 1 year. I think Foster is a solid back who fits really well into our system. That is why I brought up the cost of resigning him.

Like some other people have said, I am kinda back and forth on the issue. On one hand, he was great in college, came out here in 09 and played great, and only got better last year. I have no problem resigning him, as I feel he earned the bonus money.

On the other hand, he is still young and it never hurts to see how someone preforms in a contract year.
 
Remember how excited we were to see Domanick Davis get his much-deserved contract? Remember how that turned out? This kind of thing can go wrong at any moment and it's hard to ever know when to make the move to pay a running back big dollars. First you have to see if you've got one on your roster (even if you took one early in the draft). Then you have to wait and see if he's a flash in the pan. Then when you're pretty sure he's worth every penny of what you're going to pay an injury can bring it all crashing down on your cap anyway.

Running backs are so cool to have and so risky at the same time.

I think if Arian Foster does it again this year, all year we lock him up for the rest of his natural football life and just hope it's not cut short in some way.
 
RB is one of the riskiest positions and "replaceable" in Kubiak's offense. I quote replaceable because Foster's performance last year was incredible and not everyone can do that. But Kubiak can find RBs that fit this model fairly easily. Again, I'm not saying let Foster walk and just plug in anybody... I think Foster stands for everything this organization wants in a player.

I think extending his contract right now and giving him a boatload of money (assuming we'd have no problems with the cap) would set a very bad precedent. This is an organization that doesn't want to reward a player for one season, they want to reward their players for their consistent play, teamwork, yadda yadda yadda. If we hypothetically gave Foster a HUGE contract right now, then every other player (particularly) at a skill position would be knocking on Rick Smith's door for a new contract after 1 good season. That's how you get back in cap hell. I'm all for rewarding your players, especially those you draft and groom and develop, but after they've clearly shown you consistent performance in helping the team.

EDIT: To respond to the thread title. No, I do not think Foster is a one year wonder. I think his skillset fits this offense very very well, he's got great size and speed, he doesn't let players hit him head on so he doesn't take the punishing hits a lot of RBs do, he has excellent vision to find the seam, and just as importantly his mind is in the right place - he's always trying to get better and knows he's can lose his starting role at any second.
 
Ole Miss Texan said:
RB is one of the riskiest positions and "replaceable" in Kubiak's offense. I quote replaceable because Foster's performance last year was incredible and not everyone can do that. But Kubiak can find RBs that fit this model fairly easily. Again, I'm not saying let Foster walk and just plug in anybody... I think Foster stands for everything this organization wants in a player.

I think extending his contract right now and giving him a boatload of money (assuming we'd have no problems with the cap) would set a very bad precedent. This is an organization that doesn't want to reward a player for one season, they want to reward their players for their consistent play, teamwork, yadda yadda yadda. If we hypothetically gave Foster a HUGE contract right now, then every other player (particularly) at a skill position would be knocking on Rick Smith's door for a new contract after 1 good season. That's how you get back in cap hell. I'm all for rewarding your players, especially those you draft and groom and develop, but after they've clearly shown you consistent performance in helping the team.

EDIT: To respond to the thread title. No, I do not think Foster is a one year wonder. I think his skillset fits this offense very very well, he's got great size and speed, he doesn't let players hit him head on so he doesn't take the punishing hits a lot of RBs do, he has excellent vision to find the seam, and just as importantly his mind is in the right place - he's always trying to get better and knows he's can lose his starting role at any second.
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You do have a point with people wanting to cash in after 1 good season. However, RB is a strange position because generally their shelf life is so short. Its tough to get a free agent RB that makes a difference because usually after their rookie contract plus 1 extension, they are declining.

The potentially strange thing here is Tate was a 2nd round pick, who you have to assume they thought would start before Foster took off. So, hypothetically, if Tate has a stellar season and starts splitting carries, then what do they do? Do you let Foster walk and risk that Tate was a 1 year wonder? Do you resign Foster and run a great RBBC (pun intended), or trade 1 of the 2 of them?
 
I think he's going to have a good year, but no way he repeats 2010. First, teams are going to key on him, and second we've got plenty of other guys to spread the ball around to. Ward wasn't exactly chopped liver last year, and now we've also got Ben Tate back. Arian may very well get tagged with the "one year wonder" label by no fault of his own.
 
Vinnie said:
I think he's going to have a good year, but no way he repeats 2010. First, teams are going to key on him, and second we've got plenty of other guys to spread the ball around to. Ward wasn't exactly chopped liver last year, and now we've also got Ben Tate back. Arian may very well get tagged with the "one year wonder" label by no fault of his own.
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After listening to Kubes comments yesterday, Tate better get that hammy healthy quick or he may be cut. Slaton has carried the bulk of the carries so far this camp and from what people like LZ, Marc V and McClain have said that he looks good and very determined during camp.
 
texanfan2002114 said:
After listening to Kubes comments yesterday, Tate better get that hammy healthy quick or he may be cut. Slaton has carried the bulk of the carries so far this camp and from what people like LZ, Marc V and McClain have said that he looks good and very determined during camp.
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Even with the stiff competition at RB, I would really doubt they would cut a 2nd round pick in his 2nd year after he spent his first on IR. I would think they would at least give him 1 more year to show his potential.
 
I HOPE he's not a 1 year wonder, but I hoped the same thing about Steve Slaton.

And I get the feeling his hamstring problem is going to be a nagging one. So yeah, he's a 1 year wonder in my book until he proves he's not.
 
I would say that at minimum he is a 1.1875 year wonder as he had three strong games in 2009 at the end of the year.
 
El Tejano said:
I kind of see-saw on this. On one hand I believe he's already proved he wasn't a one year wonder. Remember if it weren't for Arian taking over in the last quarter of the 2009 season, we probably don't see 9-7 because he did really well in those games. It could also be argued that if he started earlier, the Texans probably go to the playoffs that year. Remember going into the 2010 season the question was if he could do what he did in the last part of 09? Well he did that.

On the other hand I think if you are an organization trying to make the playoffs, then you hang that carrot out in front of probably your most hungry player.
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I don't think two games from a prior season before dispells the possibility that he was a one year wonder. That's just a mere sample from the season before.

I don't think he is a one year wonder either, but that doesn't suggest anything really. Bob is handling this right for a change and good for him. If history tells Foster anything, he should know that as long as he comes out tearing it up this season at some point in the season, Bob will probably be willing to take care of him as he has with other players in this organization who proved themselves. But it's good that Bob isn't jumping the gun here and dishing out tons of scratch after one season. I imagine after seeing what happened to Steve Slaton, he isn't going to fall for that without seeing a longer period of success.
 
Adrian had a great year, noone can take that away from him, he'll get paid if he continues to excel the only problem with Adrian has alway been Adrian himself.

- trouble with off the field fights in college
- dropped completely off the charts in the draft cause of senior season and interview with draft scouts.
- has had a lot of trouble with his knees, knee surgery this year too!
- only player I think I've seen Kubiak bench.. just last year!

With all the issues I can see why they just don't want to dump a huge salary on him..
 
He's not a 1 year wonder. He possesses a unique skill set of good top end speed, good strength, tough to bring down, very good acceleration, good lateral movement, terrific balance, terrific vision, great hands, and pretty good at pass pro, etc.

He's a jack of all trades, and master of about half of them.
 
The comments about "easy to find a rb to perform in this ZBS" are puzzling. Like who in our existence? DDW, Slaton & Foster. Each had one very good year but our RB spot has been a sucking hole for years. Unfortunately for Arian, Ward looked very good and Tate could be as good if not better over all. I am okay if Smith waits to re-sign him or if it happens tomorrow. Foster is real deal.
 
badboy said:
The comments about "easy to find a rb to perform in this ZBS" are puzzling. Like who in our existence? DDW, Slaton & Foster. Each had one very good year but our RB spot has been a sucking hole for years. Unfortunately for Arian, Ward looked very good and Tate could be as good if not better over all. I am okay if Smith waits to re-sign him or if it happens tomorrow. Foster is real deal.
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I think it's really been an OL thing up until two years ago. Even Slaton's rookie season was more Slaton than the OL.

Now the OL is doing its thang...

Not saying that Foster isn't. Foster is special, put him behind our line & you've got magic.

We would still have a good run game with a Tate, Ward, Slaton line-up, not league leading rusher or #1 running team but probably in the top 10 if not knocking on it.
 
silvrhand said:
Adrian had a great year, noone can take that away from him, he'll get paid if he continues to excel the only problem with Adrian has alway been Adrian himself.

- trouble with off the field fights in college
- dropped completely off the charts in the draft cause of senior season and interview with draft scouts.
- has had a lot of trouble with his knees, knee surgery this year too!
- only player I think I've seen Kubiak bench.. just last year!

With all the issues I can see why they just don't want to dump a huge salary on him..
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Adrian who?
 
michaelm said:
Adrian who?
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Balboa??????


rocky_05_adrian.jpg


:wadepalm:
 
badboy said:
The comments about "easy to find a rb to perform in this ZBS" are puzzling. Like who in our existence? DDW, Slaton & Foster. Each had one very good year but our RB spot has been a sucking hole for years. Unfortunately for Arian, Ward looked very good and Tate could be as good if not better over all. I am okay if Smith waits to re-sign him or if it happens tomorrow. Foster is real deal.
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I just look back at the Broncos and Texans during Kubiak's tenure [1995-2005 with Denver and 2006-Present with Houston]:

1. Terrell Davis - 1995-98 - Came in as a rookie 6th round pick and put up 4 straight 1,000+ yd seasons including a 2,000 yd year; 56 total TDs.

2. Mike Anderson - 2000 - Came in as a rookie 6th round pick and put up close to 1,500 yds rushing and 15 TDs.

3. Clinton Portis - 2002-2003 - Rookie 2nd round pick put up 1,500+ yd back to back seasons with 29 total TDs. Subsequently traded for Champ Bailey.

4. Reuben Droughns - 2004 - First season with significant carries. Came in after 4 seasons in the league with a total of 40 rushing attempts. Put up 1,200+ yds rushing.

5. Mike Anderson - 2005 - Kubiak's last year in Denver, Anderson came back from injury and put up 1,000+ yds and 12 TDs

6. Steve Slaton - 2008 - Rookie 3rd round pick put up 1,282 yds and 9 TDs.

7. Arian Foster - 2010 - 1,616 yds rushing and 16 TDs as a "second year" undrafted free agent.


As Offensive Coordinator or Head Coach, Kubiak has had 11 seasons with a 1,000+ yd rusher and 5 seasons without. 3 of those seasons were with Houston in 06/07/09. He's had 4 Rookies put up 1,000 yd+ seasons (two 6th round picks, a 2nd rounder and a 3rd rounder). He's had 1 "4yr veteran" do it in his first year to get more than 30 carries (carries of 6,4,30,0 in previous seasons), and an undrafted free agent (Foster) who did it in his 2nd year in the league and only receiving touches in the last 4 games of his rookie season.
 
The only thing that slows down Foster is the passing game. I really think games were lost last year by Kubiak not running more plays for Arian early in games. It was run him for 5 yrds, pass, pass, punt. He is definitely an elite back in our system who is a threat to break one on any play. He is also a great pass catcher. I agree, if he starts strong, wrap him up for good.
 
Ole Miss Texan said:
I just look back at the Broncos and Texans during Kubiak's tenure [1995-2005 with Denver and 2006-Present with Houston]:

1. Terrell Davis - 1995-98 - Came in as a rookie 6th round pick and put up 4 straight 1,000+ yd seasons including a 2,000 yd year; 56 total TDs.

2. Mike Anderson - 2000 - Came in as a rookie 6th round pick and put up close to 1,500 yds rushing and 15 TDs.

3. Clinton Portis - 2002-2003 - Rookie 2nd round pick put up 1,500+ yd back to back seasons with 29 total TDs. Subsequently traded for Champ Bailey.

4. Reuben Droughns - 2004 - First season with significant carries. Came in after 4 seasons in the league with a total of 40 rushing attempts. Put up 1,200+ yds rushing.

5. Mike Anderson - 2005 - Kubiak's last year in Denver, Anderson came back from injury and put up 1,000+ yds and 12 TDs

6. Steve Slaton - 2008 - Rookie 3rd round pick put up 1,282 yds and 9 TDs.

7. Arian Foster - 2010 - 1,616 yds rushing and 16 TDs as a "second year" undrafted free agent.


As Offensive Coordinator or Head Coach, Kubiak has had 11 seasons with a 1,000+ yd rusher and 5 seasons without. 3 of those seasons were with Houston in 06/07/09. He's had 4 Rookies put up 1,000 yd+ seasons (two 6th round picks, a 2nd rounder and a 3rd rounder). He's had 1 "4yr veteran" do it in his first year to get more than 30 carries (carries of 6,4,30,0 in previous seasons), and an undrafted free agent (Foster) who did it in his 2nd year in the league and only receiving touches in the last 4 games of his rookie season.
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Thanks for making my point. In last 5 years 2 RBs got 1k, if it is so easy to do why not one each year? I am not blaming Kubiak just saying that anyone can get a thousand is not happening.
 
badboy said:
Thanks for making my point. In last 5 years 2 RBs got 1k, if it is so easy to do why not one each year? I am not blaming Kubiak just saying that anyone can get a thousand is not happening.
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Yea I did that exercise because I've always heard that but never looked at the year by year production, and by which runningbacks. I'm convinced Denver had a good OL in place which really helped produce 9 thousand yd rushers in kubiak's 11 seasons. Davis obviously a STUD though.

I'm hoping that the crap that was the OL when Kubiak got here, is fixed. I think it took those 1st couple years to get his system in place. Now that it's in place I hope we have that same production here.

I don't think it's a coincidence that all those RBs happened to find instant success their rookie season, or first season with significant carries.
 
The texans should give him a new 1-year deal at 5 million and see what happens after that and if he plays well then break bread with the man and stop playing games. The man did lead the NFL in rushing and that isn't easy regardless what system that you play and if you guys have ever played running back then you would know this maaaaan!!!!!
 
PHAROAH said:
The texans should give him a new 1-year deal at 5 million and see what happens after that and if he plays well then break bread with the man and stop playing games. The man did lead the NFL in rushing and that isn't easy regardless what system that you play and if you guys have ever played running back then you would know this maaaaan!!!!!
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I don't think it's out of the question to see how the 2011 season plays out before handing him a buttload of money. He's given no signs that he wants to hold out, let him showcase himself and then pay him if you want.
 
I think he got alot of advice from Jamaal Charles on just being patient with it. I hope he gets it.
 
PHAROAH said:
The texans should give him a new 1-year deal at 5 million and see what happens after that and if he plays well then break bread with the man and stop playing games. The man did lead the NFL in rushing and that isn't easy regardless what system that you play and if you guys have ever played running back then you would know this maaaaan!!!!!
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Why should a team that's barely under the cap give a player who has had one good (granted - way better than good) year, plays a position with a high injury risk and short career span, has no other options, is not complaining, and can be restricted prior to next off-season's free agency period a $5 Million contract?

I'm thinking (and to be honest - hoping) that between DDW, Steve Slaton, and to a lesser extent Ahman Green that they have learned a thing or two.
 
I hope not because B-Tate is B-Yond worthless. When you saw him cry on draft night, you knew he was a wasted pick. The kingh99 rule of predicted greatness number 1 is any player who cries after being drafted is going to be a bust. This is why I am not worried about guys like Watt and Reed. They laughed and expressed pride. Crying implies I've made my contract and I'm set for life. Not good. Not good at all. They need to push this guy and push him hard. He's dead money until they do.
 
badboy said:
Thanks for making my point. In last 5 years 2 RBs got 1k, if it is so easy to do why not one each year? I am not blaming Kubiak just saying that anyone can get a thousand is not happening.
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Actually we didn't fully employ the zone blocking philosophy here in Houston until the old guy (Alex Gibbs) came down and taught it to our O-line
 
ObsiWan said:
Actually we didn't fully employ the zone blocking philosophy here in Houston until the old guy (Alex Gibbs) came down and taught it to our O-line
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WHen Gary was hired everyone talked about him bringing the Denver offense (ZBS) with him. I think Gibbs offense was a hybrid or a bit different than Denver's sort of like Wade's 3-4 is different than others.
 
badboy said:
WHen Gary was hired everyone talked about him bringing the Denver offense (ZBS) with him. I think Gibbs offense was a hybrid or a bit different than Denver's sort of like Wade's 3-4 is different than others.
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At first, we used a hybrid/mix of the zone because of Sherman. When Gibbs came, we went to a more pure version of it. I think it took us a couple of seasons for our o-line to grow into it and then a little bit of time to find the right RBs for it; I don't think Slaton was originally the right guy but I think he's gotten better at the Zone system by watching how Foster and Ward read their blocks.
 
badboy said:
WHen Gary was hired everyone talked about him bringing the Denver offense (ZBS) with him. I think Gibbs offense was a hybrid or a bit different than Denver's sort of like Wade's 3-4 is different than others.
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The Pencil Neck said:
At first, we used a hybrid/mix of the zone because of Sherman. When Gibbs came, we went to a more pure version of it. I think it took us a couple of seasons for our o-line to grow into it and then a little bit of time to find the right RBs for it; I don't think Slaton was originally the right guy but I think he's gotten better at the Zone system by watching how Foster and Ward read their blocks.
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It seems like we did better after Gibbs left. That's just my opinion on that. Running back in the NFL is the 2nd biggest crapshoot in the NFL after drafting a QB in the top 10. Until Foster does it for 2 years. he IS a one year wonder. Those are just the facts, ma'am. If he does it for 2 years, give him a hell of a pay raise. Don't get all stupid with it, but give the man a multiyear deal with incentives. RB contracts need to be progressive and incentive laden. They can tail off in one year and your stuck with a huge amount of dead cap room if you're not careful. Three years of solid production ~1250 yds +, pay the man. He earned it to pay for the crippled life he'll lead after the NFL. The number of touches a RB receives in the NFL are a very direct indicator for the career span of the RB. The more touches per year, the faster they tend to burn out.
 
DocBar said:
It seems like we did better after Gibbs left. That's just my opinion on that. Running back in the NFL is the 2nd biggest crapshoot in the NFL after drafting a QB in the top 10. Until Foster does it for 2 years. he IS a one year wonder. Those are just the facts, ma'am. If he does it for 2 years, give him a hell of a pay raise. Don't get all stupid with it, but give the man a multiyear deal with incentives. RB contracts need to be progressive and incentive laden. They can tail off in one year and your stuck with a huge amount of dead cap room if you're not careful. Three years of solid production ~1250 yds +, pay the man. He earned it to pay for the crippled life he'll lead after the NFL. The number of touches a RB receives in the NFL are a very direct indicator for the career span of the RB. The more touches per year, the faster they tend to burn out.
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I've got no disagreement with the fact that Foster might be a 1 year wonder.

On the team getting better after Gibbs left, yes. I think they did. But I think it's because Dennison runs the same line concept as Gibbs so the OL had continuity even with Gibbs' departure.
 
The Pencil Neck said:
I've got no disagreement with the fact that Foster might be a 1 year wonder.

On the team getting better after Gibbs left, yes. I think they did. But I think it's because Dennison runs the same line concept as Gibbs so the OL had continuity even with Gibbs' departure.
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I just found it odd that we were markedly better after Gibbs left. A lot of that can be credited to Dennison but I think a lot of it has to do with the continuity of personnel. The same guys have played the same scheme for a few years now. The OL is usually the tightest group on a team.
 
DocBar said:
I just found it odd that we were markedly better after Gibbs left. A lot of that can be credited to Dennison but I think a lot of it has to do with the continuity of personnel. The same guys have played the same scheme for a few years now. The OL is usually the tightest group on a team.
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With the addition of Wade Smith at Guard instead of Pitts/Studdard.
 
DocBar said:
It seems like we did better after Gibbs left. That's just my opinion on that.
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We've been doing much better since Gibbs & Pitts left. I think the biggest difference is that we don't pull the LG as much as we used to & Winston is taking care of his assignments on the backside of running plays.

We're more pure ZBS since Gibbs & Pitts left.

Coincidence?

Ω
 
The Pencil Neck said:
I've got no disagreement with the fact that Foster might be a 1 year wonder.

On the team getting better after Gibbs left, yes. I think they did. But I think it's because Dennison runs the same line concept as Gibbs so the OL had continuity even with Gibbs' departure.
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Watch Seattle, let's see what they do.

I think Gibbs has gotten away from what made him successful, maybe buying into the hype of the new NFL & all that.

I agree that Dennison was a big help in developing our line, but I think it's because he's more like Kubiak than Gibbs.
 
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