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The Pats 2 firsts

Brandon420tx

Brandon420tx

Flounder
Every year there is a rumor about Belichek using his 2 first to move up in the draft. The pats are currently sitting at pick 17 and 28 (and 33rd)

With the expected change that the rookie wage scale will have on first round selections, we're eventually going to have to calculate a new Pick value scale. So I'm pretty much disregarding the current one and not thinking of what the technical trade would have to be for both teams to get similar value.

Anyways, prospects we could target at the 17th from doubtful to likely are: Aldon Smith, Ryan Kerrigan, Cameron Jordan, Muhammed Wilkerson, Phil Taylor, and Brooks Reed. I'd be fine with any of them and extremely happy with Aldon Smith, Ryan Kerrigan(both of them unlikely) Phil Taylor and Brooks Reed.

Possible pick 28 candidates include: Jimmy Smith, Justin Houston, Mike Pouncey, Aaron Williams, Torrey Smith, Cameron Heyward, Akeem Ayers
I would be ecstatic with Mike Pouncey, Justin Houston, Torrey Smith, or Akeem Ayers

Some will likely make it to the 33rd pick if thats the traded pick instead of the 28th, in which case I'll throw in Kyle Rudolph (obligatory TE mention), Raheem Moore, and Christian Ballard (similar to Antonio Smith imo) I'd even be happy with Benjamin Ijalana, but mostly for the enchilada jokes that would become rampant on the board.

Hey I guy can dream can't he?
 
Pats could trade up with us to take JJ Watt. Us move down to 17 and pick up their 2nd (60 overall)? Depending on what Wade thinks of the defensive guys available, I'd do that in a heartbeat. If there's a can't miss perennial All Pro difference maker though - we have to select him at 11.
 
Ole Miss Texan said:
Pats could trade up with us to take JJ Watt. Us move down to 17 and pick up their 2nd (60 overall)? Depending on what Wade thinks of the defensive guys available, I'd do that in a heartbeat. If there's a can't miss perennial All Pro difference maker though - we have to select him at 11.
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I would love to move down to #17. We could take Kerrigan and get an extra selection.
 
Ive been thinking about possible move down scenario's as well .... and the Pats are sitting in about the spot I'd like to move down to (16-20) with the idea of picking up an extra #2 and Phil Taylor....
Then moving back into the tail end of the first round (25-28) with the idea of picking up the best 3-4 OLB available .... I think that one of Ayers , Carter or Houston will be available at the tail end of the first round. Otherwise I keep the extra pick and fill holes at both S spots , CB and maybe even ILB if an elite talent is still on the board.


It all depends on who's there at 11 tho .... if one of the top two CB's is still there I might just have to take him and try to move back up to grab Taylor later.
 
Brandon420tx said:
Every year there is a rumor about Belichek using his 2 first to move up in the draft. The pats are currently sitting at pick 17 and 28 (and 33rd)

With the expected change that the rookie wage scale will have on first round selections, we're eventually going to have to calculate a new Pick value scale. So I'm pretty much disregarding the current one and not thinking of what the technical trade would have to be for both teams to get similar value.

Anyways, prospects we could target at the 17th from doubtful to likely are: Aldon Smith, Ryan Kerrigan, Cameron Jordan, Muhammed Wilkerson, Phil Taylor, and Brooks Reed. I'd be fine with any of them and extremely happy with Aldon Smith, Ryan Kerrigan(both of them unlikely) Phil Taylor and Brooks Reed.

Possible pick 28 candidates include: Jimmy Smith, Justin Houston, Mike Pouncey, Aaron Williams, Torrey Smith, Cameron Heyward, Akeem Ayers
I would be ecstatic with Mike Pouncey, Justin Houston, Torrey Smith, or Akeem Ayers

Some will likely make it to the 33rd pick if thats the traded pick instead of the 28th, in which case I'll throw in Kyle Rudolph (obligatory TE mention), Raheem Moore, and Christian Ballard (similar to Antonio Smith imo) I'd even be happy with Benjamin Ijalana, but mostly for the enchilada jokes that would become rampant on the board.

Hey I guy can dream can't he?
Click to expand...

Have you ever seen how many bad snaps Mike Pouncey has had? He's not very good.
 
I'm not willing to trade down; I think we're sitting perfectly. A few teams ahead of us are gonna blink & take someone not expected to go at those slots & 1 of those top defensive guys are gonna fall to us; i can feel it. & the way our defense performed last year we need to ensure we get a difference maker on the defensive side of the ball......anywhere on the defensive side.

Furthermore this isn't a very deep draft talent wise. mostly all those type of defensive difference makers will be gone by pick 15 imo.
 
FYI, Texans pick is #11, which according to the chart is worth 1250.

Patriots have picks:
17 - 950
28 - 660
33 - 580
60 - 300
74 - 220
92 - 132
...

I really don't think the Pats will be trading with us if they intend to trade their 17ths and 28th. According to the chart, they should be moving up to the 5th-7th pick range with those two, not 11. If they were to do that, I would expect them to go after Julio Jones or AJ Green.


draftvaluechart-712691.gif
 
Part of me thinks that if the Patriots are willing to give up two first rounders to move up and grab a guy that it would be smarter to figure out who that guy is and draft him ourselves.
 
Dutchrudder said:
FYI, Texans pick is #11, which according to the chart is worth 1250.

Patriots have picks:
17 - 950
28 - 660
33 - 580
60 - 300
74 - 220
92 - 132
...

I really don't think the Pats will be trading with us if they intend to trade their 17ths and 28th. According to the chart, they should be moving up to the 5th-7th pick range with those two, not 11. If they were to do that, I would expect them to go after Julio Jones or AJ Green.


draftvaluechart-712691.gif
Click to expand...


I really think that if the rookie pay scale is implimented you can throw out the current draft pick value chart .... I believe a rookie pay scale could potentially substantially increase the value of earlier picks by getting a premium talent for a known amount.

Although its not implimented yet , I get the idea the owners arent willing to budge on this issue and to be honest , the players shouldnt put up much of a fight about it as it affects their later deals .... getting paid for production on the field rather than potential.
 
Yeah but when I said I was interested in him, it was for the guard position not center. Brisiel is oft injured and I think Pouncey could take his spot
 
Corrosion said:
I really think that if the rookie pay scale is implimented you can throw out the current draft pick value chart .... I believe a rookie pay scale could potentially substantially increase the value of earlier picks by getting a premium talent for a known amount.

Although its not implimented yet , I get the idea the owners arent willing to budge on this issue and to be honest , the players shouldnt put up much of a fight about it as it affects their later deals .... getting paid for production on the field rather than potential.
Click to expand...

I think it will be the other way around actually. This chart was not designed with enormous checks being given to the top 10 players, which has substantially cut down on the number of top 10 trades in the past decade. By removing the pay factor, you are going after player talent and other factors become less of an issue. I think the chart does weight the picks properly in that it gives a huge premium to picking in the top 3.
 
Didn't know they moved him to guard. Boy it was horrible seeing him play at center. I kept asking me "this guy is the brother of the dude from the Steelers?" I recall a game vs. Tennessee where he practically gift wrapped a game for Tenn. How is he at that guard position?
 
El Tejano said:
Didn't know they moved him to guard. Boy it was horrible seeing him play at center. I kept asking me "this guy is the brother of the dude from the Steelers?" I recall a game vs. Tennessee where he practically gift wrapped a game for Tenn. How is he at that guard position?
Click to expand...

Pretty damn good. I don't know why they tried him at Center but Guard is his natural position. He's the best one in the draft.
 
Dutchrudder said:
I think it will be the other way around actually. This chart was not designed with enormous checks being given to the top 10 players, which has substantially cut down on the number of top 10 trades in the past decade. By removing the pay factor, you are going after player talent and other factors become less of an issue. I think the chart does weight the picks properly in that it gives a huge premium to picking in the top 3.
Click to expand...

Thats what Im getting at - It increases the value of earlier picks.
 
Corrosion said:
Thats what Im getting at - It increases the value of earlier picks.
Click to expand...

I think you are both correct but overlooking the boomerang on this. When the chart was done rookie salaries weren't out of whack so the price was about talent. In the last ten years the salaries have gone nuts and so the top of the draft was devalued compared to the chart. Now if the salaries are reined in the value will return to those top picks and the chart will become more accurate than it has been for the last few years.
 
Screw it give NE our 1st, 2nd, 3rd and next years first for their 2 firsts and their second. So its 17, 28 and 33 for 11, 42, 73 and next years first.

Wonder if they would bite.

I would love to come out of this draft with say-
17 Muhammad Wilkerson DT Temple
28 Jimmy Smith CB Colorado
33 Brooks Reed LB Arizona

or

17 Ryan Kerrigan DE Purdue
28 Phil Taylor DT Baylor
33 Aaron Williams CB/FS Texas

There would be plenty of talent in that area to choose from.

Corey Liuget DT Illinois
Anthony Castonzo OT Boston College
Ryan Kerrigan DE Purdue
Muhammad Wilkerson DT Temple
Gabe Carimi OT Wisconsin
Jimmy Smith CB Colorado (O)
Justin Houston LB Georgia
Phil Taylor DT Baylor (O)
Aaron Williams CB Texas (FS)
Stephen Paea DT Oregon State (X)
Martez Wilson LB Illinois
Torrey Smith WR Maryland
Cameron Heyward DE Ohio State (X)
Mikel LeShoure RB Illinois
Derek Sherrod OT Mississippi State
Ryan Williams RB Virginia Tech (X)
Kyle Rudolph TE Notre Dame (X)
Jon Baldwin WR Pittsburgh
 
kiwitexansfan said:
No way Jimmy Smith makes it to 28.

I would not be surprised to see someone make him the 2nd CB off the board.
Click to expand...

I don't know, he's got a lot of character questions/concerns. No doubt he's got the size and strength... good CB too. If teams believe he's grown up and are comfortable with him he should go early.
 
Thoughts: NE crapped out as a Superbowl selection this season and imo need to make a big splash. Their DE looked average (why I suggested the Mario trade to them on an earlier thread) & need a solid WR. So if Julio Jones is there #11, I like # 11 to Pats for # 17 and # 33. Also, I hear Chargers are dickering for the # 28. I would trade Mario to S.D. for #18 and # 28 and send Okoye and Kareem Jackson their way to sweeten the hook.
# 17 Watt or Jordan DE to replace Mario.(unless Robert Quinn falls)
# 18 Aaron Williams CB/FS
# 28 Phil Taylor N.T.
# 33 Ryan Mallett Qb Yeah you read it right. A steal that resolves our backup need and keeps teams like Tennessee or Panthers from picking him.
Our own 2nd round (#10) CB Brandon Harris who got the attention @ combine.
In 3rd: OLB Sam Acho who was MVP last bowl game he played.

We better get a WR somewhere 'cause I see no sign Jacoby will return.
 
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