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2011 draft dynamics

powda

powda

The bridge between stupid and useless is short.
This will be the first year i know of in which the draft will happen before free agency. I think this will change the entire dynamic of our draft strategy. We cant be sure we'll land a quality cornerback in free agency...but...we cant go into another season with the secondary talent we have. I wonder if that will force our hand.

I know plenty of people on the board would perfer a vetran to more rookie cornerbacks but we may not have that luxury. Thoughts?
 
powda said:
This will be the first year i know of in which the draft will happen before free agency. I think this will change the entire dynamic of our draft strategy. We cant be sure we'll land a quality cornerback in free agency...but...we cant go into another season with the secondary talent we have. I wonder if that will force our hand.

I know plenty of people on the board would perfer a vetran to more rookie cornerbacks but we may not have that luxury. Thoughts?
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I think you're exactly right, I hate that we won't get a chance to address some holes before the draft. With that said, there's enough positions on this team that need upgrading that I no way shape or form reach on a DB if there are better players available. We need impact players across the board and if we can address DE or NT or OLB with a special talent then we need to do that, even if it means we don't get a CB that "may" be marginally better than Jackson/Quin.

Another thing that will make it tough is that Wade won't have had the luxury of actually watching our players 1st hand. He won't be able to run some practices and scrimmages and see how Cushing fits as an ILB in the 3-4 or how Mitchell looks as the NT.
 
Its a miserable offseason to switch to a 3-4 defense. Our secondary is such a mess i dont see a quality starter in the group. Jackson , Nolan, and Quin may be competent this year ,but how can you trust them after this seasons disaster?

I dont just want 1 quality...i want 2 quality cornerbacks out of free agency.

Our LB corps isnt much better if look at them individually:

Solb ?

Silb Cushing = down year and unproductive as a 4-3 middle linebacker. Now were going to put him in the middle of a 3-4.

Wilb Ryans = He's comming off a season ending injury. I trust him to be a leader and be productive. What i dont trust is his ability after this injury until i see it for myself

Wolb Barwin = Maybe he's a strong side backer instead? he is also comming off a season ending injury and no one has ever seen him play as a 3-4 olb. More importantly , Wade Phillips will have to make personel decissions before he gets a chance to see him in a practice as a olb.

To me Sharpton is an inside backer in a 3-4 defense. As long as Cushing is inside this keeps Sharpton on the bench as a reserve.

I like Mark Anderson a lot as a pass rushing specialist in a 4-3 defense. Rick Smith did a good job finding him and i have not heard anyone compliment him for it. However, Anderson doesnt strike me as effective in space. I don't think he's a factor as a 3-4 olb.

All the other backers we have figure to be inside and reserves.

If Kubiak and Smith plan to be around next offseason they have to be super active in free agency and nail their top draft picks. Normally, you shouldnt expect much out of say a 3rd round pick...but this year...theyre going to have to contribute or start. No more wasted picks on TE's or projects. They need to stop outsmarting themselves.
 
Agreed. There are so many question marks due to the transition and injuries. I do think Wade will be creative in our schemes. We won't be in a true 3-4 100% of the time. Anderson was an excellent pick up last year but I don't see him as an OLB either. I think he's still got a spot though for rotational use and when we show different fronts. Wade says he'll use the players to their strengths and I really believe him... I think he'llbe creative and mix things up.

I like our CBs... assuming we get a legit veteran FA. LOL. For me, it's a must for this team to be as successful as we want it to be. Nnamdi Asomugha, Ike Taylor, Champ Bailey. I think Taylor would fit this team well and this season is one of the few where I'm promoting potentially "overpaying" for one of these guys. We're in a corner and it has to be done.
 
Ole Miss Texan said:
this season is one of the few where I'm promoting potentially "overpaying" for one of these guys. We're in a corner and it has to be done.
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We have to overpay or the whole thing will be blown up next offseason. For some reason Reggie White being way over paid in Green Bay and getting there through free agency comes to mind. It began the renisance up there. Once he went, others followed. We need to make a splash and lead the way in free agency.

Names i'm watching in free agency =

cb Joseph cincy
cb Wilson balt
Nt Soliai mia
Nt Franklin sf
Nt Branch az
olb Lawson sf
s Whitner buf (ss only)

Sure, some of these guys have had a mix of success and failure ,but they are all young players entering their prime. I think they all bring something we need and represent an upgrade in talent. plus non of them will cost serious coin.

I think our defense will mix it up like you suggest. We've been a passive defense that reacted to the offense since Capers. I feel like i can trust Wade Phillips scheme; I just dont know about his ability to find talent.
 
powda said:
Its a miserable offseason to switch to a 3-4 defense. Our secondary is such a mess i dont see a quality starter in the group. Jackson , Nolan, and Quin may be competent this year ,but how can you trust them after this seasons disaster?

I dont just want 1 quality...i want 2 quality cornerbacks out of free agency.
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I think Quin gets a bad rap from our secondaries terrible play last year. In just his second season he was asked to line up against the other teams #1 WR week in and week out, and IMO did a pretty good job of it. I think Quin can be a servicable number 1 CB if not a pretty darn good 2.

Jackson looked awful last season, I don't think anybody is going to argue with that. But it's not too often rookie cornerbacks get thrown into the starting lineup from the get go. Asomugha didn't start until his third season in the league. Hell, it took Tramon Williams 4 years and an injury to crack the starting lineup. My point is that we shouldn't give up on Jackson just yet.

I definitely think we need to land a CB in FA but I don't think we need 2. If we can land Nnamdi, Champ, Ike, or even Grimey and pair them with Quin with Kareem playing nickleback. I think that would be solid.

What I think we really need is a true ball hawk FS to replace Wilson/Barber. These guys were absolute trash last year. Pollard is an in the box type safety which is ok if you have a good centerfielder type guy playing with him. We don't have that guy and it hurt us badly last year. Hopefully we can find someone in the draft or free agency to fill that void.
 
dc_txtech said:
I think Quin gets a bad rap from our secondaries terrible play last year. In just his second season he was asked to line up against the other teams #1 WR week in and week out, and IMO did a pretty good job of it. I think Quin can be a servicable number 1 CB if not a pretty darn good 2.

Jackson looked awful last season, I don't think anybody is going to argue with that. But it's not too often rookie cornerbacks get thrown into the starting lineup from the get go. Asomugha didn't start until his third season in the league. Hell, it took Tramon Williams 4 years and an injury to crack the starting lineup. My point is that we shouldn't give up on Jackson just yet.

I definitely think we need to land a CB in FA but I don't think we need 2. If we can land Nnamdi, Champ, Ike, or even Grimey and pair them with Quin with Kareem playing nickleback. I think that would be solid.

What I think we really need is a true ball hawk FS to replace Wilson/Barber. These guys were absolute trash last year. Pollard is an in the box type safety which is ok if you have a good centerfielder type guy playing with him. We don't have that guy and it hurt us badly last year. Hopefully we can find someone in the draft or free agency to fill that void.
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Signing a vet CB should be priority no.1

Moving Quin to S should be an option and drafting a S.

A secondary of

Bailey,Jackson,Quin,Quinton Carter would be a much improved secondary. It's up to BoB to sign a playmaking vet CB in FA. So far BoB's track record says it's not going to happen.
 
dc_txtech said:
1.I think Quin gets a bad rap from our secondaries terrible play last year.

2.I definitely think we need to land a CB in FA but I don't think we need 2.

3.What I think we really need is a true ball hawk FS to replace Wilson/Barber.
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1. i think our front 7 got a bad rep because of our secondary. Our secondary issues were all inclusive. If quin did his part he got no help over the top from a safety. if the safety did his part then quin didnt. quin had some ok moments last year and he is a young player. he should improve ,but if your kubiak do you trust your job to him? NO. Ultimately, quin may be sufficient thru the season but a playoff caliber offense will always take advantage of him. i'd like to see him transition to free safety.

2. If we only get 1 free agent cornerback and he gets injured we're back at square one. Names like McCain and Molden better not be on the roster next season.

3. The funny thing about needing a free safety so bad is that this draft class is weak. Last year we had the same need and the draft class was exceptionaly strong. i have lobbyed for a high pick on a free safety for years now. We dont have a safety on the roster who would start for any other team.
 
Quin is the only guy in the secondary who did any good last year. I think we are set with him as our #2 CB. What we need is a #1. Jackson makes an okay nickel if he improves the way a rookie DB should into his second year.

I'm okay with Pollard at SS as long as we get a centerfield FS out there, which we do not have (and have never had). And if we don't bring Pollard back then that means we have two safety spots to fill, because I don't see any other starting safeties on this roster.
 
steelbtexan said:
Signing a vet CB should be priority no.1

Moving Quin to S should be an option and drafting a S.

A secondary of

Bailey,Jackson,Quin,Quinton Carter would be a much improved secondary. It's up to BoB to sign a playmaking vet CB in FA. So far BoB's track record says it's not going to happen.
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i think this is extremely achievable and would be great for this team...couldn't agree more
 
I made a thread very similar to this one on the Mock Draft Board about a week ago and agree with Powda. We aren't guaranteed to get anyone in FA, whenever it takes place, so we must make CB a major priority in the draft and whoever we pick will have to start or make a significant contribution. I can imagine that we'll take either Amukamara, Harris, or Smith in the 1st round. As for the LB situation if we don't get anyone and have to make do with what we have already I'd do the following.

SOLB-Connor Barwin
SILB-Brian Cushing
WILB-Demeco Ryans
WOLB-Mark Anderson

Powda, very good assessment of the situation.
 
Nolan Nowarcki (sp?) with profootball weekly has the texans taking Prince Amukamara in his first mock draft.

Every draft has prime players that only go so deep. This draft will have players that will be first rounders ---- but how many of them would be first rounders in other years?

There looks like about 7-9 elite players in this draft. After that the talent drops of. Every texans fan should be rooting for guys like Newton, Gabbert, Locker, Ingram and the offensive tackles to have fantastic workouts.
 
Andrew Luck's decision to stay in school hurt everyone. I'm hoping that Gabbert and Newton both have great combines and someone falls in love with them. I've seen several drafts lately that have Amukamara going to us at #11 but I don't want to get my hopes up to high. If he's available and we don't take him then Rick Smith should be fired on the spot.
 
Ole Miss Texan said:
He won't be able to run some practices and scrimmages and see how Cushing fits as an ILB in the 3-4...
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I just don't understand why Phillips has Cushing penciled in at ILB. Cushing has looked much better attacking upfield, rather than reading and reacting. Cushing at LOLB and Barwin at ROLB seems obvious to me.
 
I think if free agency takes place after the draft it will force the Texans to be more aggressive in free agency if they target certain players in the draft they will have to get the rest in free agency or Kubiak & Rick Smith will be out of a job in 2012. Brian Cushing showed that he isn't very good playing at ILB this season he is way too stiff and he is much better playing OLB over the TE.
 
PHAROAH said:
I think if free agency takes place after the draft it will force the Texans to be more aggressive in free agency if they target certain players in the draft they will have to get the rest in free agency or Kubiak & Rick Smith will be out of a job in 2012. Brian Cushing showed that he isn't very good playing at ILB this season he is way too stiff and he is much better playing OLB over the TE.
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If FA takes place after the draft then yes it adds a sense of urgency to the Texans to fill holes that didn't get filled in the draft but remember that any FA we target has 31 other teams offering them contracts as well and they'll have to want to come here. Honestly I don't look for us to do much in FA, maybe a player or 2 but nothing real high quality or expensive, since we've got plenty of our own FA's that will need to be re-signed.
 
I notice Minesota drafts #12 overall. There will be lots of speculation about them wanting a quarterback. That may increase the trade value of our pick if a team wants to leapfrog them for a chance at Gabbert or Newton...

Ofcourse any team that wants a cornerback may feel the need to leapfrog us...
 
The April 6th injunction which defaults to last years offseason rules is something we should all be rooting for. I'm sketchy as far as most of the details but it would ultimately allow 3 weeks of free agency prior to the draft.

If we dont have the opportunity to sign free agents prior to the draft i think we have to draft CB Amukamara (or the next best thing - Smith / Harris) with our first pick.

Consider:

Starting safetys Wilson / Pollard out and no sure fire safety worth a high round selection.

That means our current roster safetys are Barber / Nolan (yikes)

Quinn was their best cornerback last year and is being moved to a new position at free safety which has merrit ,but any time theres a position change invollved i expect a lesser performance until proven otherwise.

That means our current roster starting corners are Jackson / Allen

SO projecting a current line up of...

ss Nolan
fs Quin
Cb Jackson
Cb Allen

...looks worse to me then last years starting lineup. We cant assume anyone will want to come here in free agency. I hope David Gibbs leaving and a more traditional technique the players are acustomed to will reap benifitts.

The bottom line is we need more talent in the secondary.

If the April 6th ruling fails to allow free agency i'm looking for something resembling this in the draft :

...................1. cb Amukamara (@ 11)
...................2. olb Houston / Sheard / Moch / Reed / Carter (take ur pick)
...................3. ss McDaniel / Carter / Jarrett / Sash
...................4. ----in the words of John Harris "FAT" (nose tackle)
(pay me rick) 4. olb (best available -dont forget Barwin hasnt done it yet)
...................5. cb (good bye Molden)
...................6. offensive lineman - probably interior
(trade back) 6. fs (they always fall on draft day - scoop up best remaing)
...................7. Nt/De developmental wide body

A starting line up of...

ss Nolan vs. #3
fs Quin vs. Nolan vs. #3
cb #1 Amukamara
cb Jackson vs. Allen vs. Quin

...with the option to suppliment in free agency looks a helluva lot more appealing to me. I just dont trust guys like Aldon Smith or Robert Quinn to do something on the NFL level they havent done on the college level. Amukamara is a more polished and ready cornerback then they are outside linebackers. We dont have the time to wait on a prospect develop.

I guess i just feel like our hand is forced in the draft - especially if Amukamara is available.
 
powda said:
The April 6th injunction which defaults to last years offseason rules is something we should all be rooting for. I'm sketchy as far as most of the details but it would ultimately allow 3 weeks of free agency prior to the draft.

If we dont have the opportunity to sign free agents prior to the draft i think we have to draft CB Amukamara (or the next best thing - Smith / Harris) with our first pick.

Consider:

Starting safetys Wilson / Pollard out and no sure fire safety worth a high round selection.

That means our current roster safetys are Barber / Nolan (yikes)

Quinn was their best cornerback last year and is being moved to a new position at free safety which has merrit ,but any time theres a position change invollved i expect a lesser performance until proven otherwise.

That means our current roster starting corners are Jackson / Allen

SO projecting a current line up of...

ss Nolan
fs Quin
Cb Jackson
Cb Allen

...looks worse to me then last years starting lineup. We cant assume anyone will want to come here in free agency. I hope David Gibbs leaving and a more traditional technique the players are acustomed to will reap benifitts.

The bottom line is we need more talent in the secondary.
Click to expand...
IMO, this line-up is already better than what we have last year.

I know that quite a few people thought that Quin was our best CB last year.
I didn't see it that way.
When I break down the game tape, Jackson was most suited at CB, even though he had some rough edges as a rookie.
I saw him as pleying better than McCourty in New England.
(I know I've been promising to break down all the games and I still intend to.)
Jackson will no longer be a rookie.

Quin is best at nickel where he saw a lot of action for us last year.
His skill set can translate to FS, I suppose; however his tackling skill is lacking to be put as the last line of defense.
Still, he's an automatic upgrade over Wilson, 'cause Wilson's tackling is no longer what it once was (along with his coverage skill.)

Now that we have Jackson and Allen (for one more year before the end of his contract), even if we can't find a quality FA, it shouldn't be too hard to find one to play nickel.
We also have McManis as a possibility.
I like for us to draft a CB to groom in case Allen doesn't work out in the long term (beyond 2012).
With a trade down to get Jimmy Smith or another big CB.
I like Brandon Harris but with Jackson already on board, I think it's better to find a big CB.
Amukamara I won't touch in the top 25 as I have Smith ahead of him.

We should go ahead and draft a safety: McDaniels, D. Williams, Andrew Rich, Sash, Sands and take a flyer in the late round (4th or later, or maybe UDFA) with guys like Jaiquawn Jarrett, Joe Lefeged, Jermale Hines, Jeron Johnson, Antwine Perez, Chris Prosinski, Dejon Gomes, Eric Haggs, or one of the guys from TCU, or whoever that has certain quality that the coaches think they can use.

Then if we can find another FA, it will be a plus.
 
76Texan said:
IMO, this line-up is already better than what we have last year.
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The funny thing about that is last year was so bad the unknown is assumed to be better.

At ss "whoever" has to be an upgrade over Pollard in coverage but they wont be in run support. Nolan made 1 splash play near then end of the season and suddenly people ignored everything before hand. He was not good last year -perhaps the best of a bad bunch - but not good.

Quin has better range and man coverage skills then Wilson ,but how disciplined is he going to be guarding areas when he's never played safety before? You can't get help over the top if your safety is out of position. As a cornerback hes a better then average tackler. As a safety hes probably less then average. He has no ball skills at all - and thats something I always want out of the safety positions. i want to see him play as a free safety before i can honestly think of him as a solution there. i want to be wrong about this one.

76Texan said:
I know that quite a few people thought that Quin was our best CB last year.
I didn't see it that way.
When I break down the game tape, Jackson was most suited at CB, even though he had some rough edges as a rookie.
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Jackson has superior athleticism to Quin no doubt. But Quin was more consistent and played with more attitude last year. I haven't given up on Jackson yet. Something i saw a lot was that our cornerbacks commited their hips to one side or another BEFORE a reciever made his break in the route tree. If our corner opened his hips to the inside then the reciever was wide open on a break outside. I guess this is due to the "shuffle technique" David Gibbs taught. I dont know enough about the intracacies of cornerback technique to be sure - but i do know the end result sucked.

Jason Allen is not the answer. His play is to sporadic to be considered a long term solution.
 
powda said:
The funny thing about that is last year was so bad the unknown is assumed to be better.

At ss "whoever" has to be an upgrade over Pollard in coverage but they wont be in run support. Nolan made 1 splash play near then end of the season and suddenly people ignored everything before hand. He was not good last year -perhaps the best of a bad bunch - but not good.

Quin has better range and man coverage skills then Wilson ,but how disciplined is he going to be guarding areas when he's never played safety before? You can't get help over the top if your safety is out of position. As a cornerback hes a better then average tackler. As a safety hes probably less then average. He has no ball skills at all - and thats something I always want out of the safety positions. i want to see him play as a free safety before i can honestly think of him as a solution there. i want to be wrong about this one.



Jackson has superior athleticism to Quin no doubt. But Quin was more consistent and played with more attitude last year. I haven't given up on Jackson yet. Something i saw a lot was that our cornerbacks commited their hips to one side or another BEFORE a reciever made his break in the route tree. If our corner opened his hips to the inside then the reciever was wide open on a break outside. I guess this is due to the "shuffle technique" David Gibbs taught. I dont know enough about the intracacies of cornerback technique to be sure - but i do know the end result sucked.

Jason Allen is not the answer. His play is to sporadic to be considered a long term solution.
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Quin is a good tackler and I think you underrate his ball skills. He will be a major upgrade at S. With something he's never had. (Good coaching)

Jackson will be a good #2 CB. It's up to BoB/Gary/Rick to find a competent CB either in FA or the draft.
 
I remember when Quin was drafted Kubiak was saying they really liked the way he played and had him specifically in mind for nickle situations.

I can see him playing FS in our normal defense. Then when the offense puts out an extra WR, he moves up to the line of scrimmage to cover him (nickle corner)... then they have another safety step in to take over the FS spot. Have Nolan and a draft pick as our two safeties or have Nolan/draft pick and a veteran FA as our two safeties.
 
steelbtexan said:
Quin is a good tackler and I think you underrate his ball skills.
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I dont think i underate his ball skills at all. People will cite his 3 interception game (against 3rd string qb Rusty Smith i think) ,but those were all fly balls like an infielder in baseball would catch. He did little else all season. I would agree he *should* be an upgrade over Wilson.

steelbtexan said:
Jackson will be a good #2 CB. It's up to BoB/Gary/Rick to find a competent CB either in FA or the draft.
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I think that's Jackson's ceiling. A good #2. Did anyone ever think he had the potential to be a shutdown corner? Why would they use a first round pick on a guy with a low ceiling?
 
In Phillips system the S have to be able to cover. This is why Wilson and Pollard were cut. Quin should be really good at this.

As far as the Jackson question, it's par for the course of the Rick/Gay regime. Reach to fill a need in rds 1-2 and hope for the best appears to be their draft strategy.
 
powda said:
I think that's Jackson's ceiling. A good #2. Did anyone ever think he had the potential to be a shutdown corner? Why would they use a first round pick on a guy with a low ceiling?
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I don't think you really mean that Jackson needs to be a shutdown corner to deserve his draft status.
I mean, Dunta was drafted at #10, and he was never a shutdown corner.

Even Asomugha can't shut down AJ (even Asomugha had help covering AJ - I had a couple of posts regarding this a way back when I broke down the game tapes against the Raiders - the two games before last year.)
This last year, AJ didn't play (ankle injury) and Aso didn't shut down our receivers either. (We'll get to that when I break down that game.)

There's no such thing as a shutdown corner so why worry about it?

Fabian Washington was drafted at #23 to play along side Asomugha in Oakland, and guess what?
Why didn't they resign him after 3 years?
Was it because he played so well he wanted more money as the #2 CB?
No, he only started 28 games in 3 years for them (45 games played in).
With his new team (Baltimore) he started 30 of the 36 games he played in, and look at his production (one lone INT in all those 36 games.)

How about Leodis McKelvin (the Bills #11 pick in 2008)?
He only started 22 of the 35 games he played in the last 3 years (with 4 Ints to show for.)

Jonathan Joseph #24 (Bengals) only started 9 games his rookie year in 06 (Zero Int).
Leon Hall #18, started 10 games in 07

The list goes on and on (check it out, all of you who thinks that a CB can step in and be successful right away.)

On a different note, I've mentioned:

- how the Pats used McCourty exclusively as a cover two corner (at least in first 7 starts) and he was baby-sat the whole way (and was still torched by the receivers from time to time, pretty much every time the safety was "a little far off".)

- how Kyle Wilson was playing so poorly for the Jets that he got demoted to the bench.

The other guy I hadn't mentioned was Joe Haden, who was drafted at #7 by the Browns. Well, he only started 7 games for them.
I had wanted to watch some of his games to see how he perform but probably won't have time.
So I just watched his first game.
Guess what, they started him out at nickel.
In a couple of plays where they first had him play CB, they sent him in on blitzes (he came no where near the QB).
Basically, he didn't have any coverage responsibility.
They gave him a rest every third series, it looks like.
While he was at CB, he received plenty of help from the safety.
On his first one-on-one situation (with about 7 mins left in the game when the Browns brought the blitz), he gave up a 34-yd TD pass.

In he meantime, Jackson was thrown into the fire from the start.
He was treated as a regular veteran in the secondary and received no special treatment/protection.
 
all this maybe true, point taken but doesn't change draft grade coming into the NFL. you have to make a grade to evaluate net worth to a team in each particular draft slot, via teams big board. sometimes it happens even in the first round but I wonder just how true teams stick to their boards when things turn out differently draft day? My draft grade may not (no probably will not) match up with your draft grade for a particular player, even in game film we may differ in what we see, or how they perform @ the combine or pro days.

That said Kareem was a borderline 1st round CB prospect. the general consensus was late 1st to early 2nd. What's done is done. Question now is will Texans "reach" for need once again or if you don't want to use the term "reach" adjust their big board to weight needs purposely higher than BPA NFL grades moving forward? Take Brandon Harris, CB Miami he is closer to #20 grade, IMO than Kareem was last draft, but now the Texans are selecting #11 so do they reach again in a similar scenero?
 
beerlover said:
all this maybe true, point taken but doesn't change draft grade coming into the NFL. you have to make a grade to evaluate net worth to a team in each particular draft slot, via teams big board. sometimes it happens even in the first round but I wonder just how true teams stick to their boards when things turn out differently draft day? My draft grade may not (no probably will not) match up with your draft grade for a particular player, even in game film we may differ in what we see, or how they perform @ the combine or pro days.

That said Kareem was a borderline 1st round CB prospect. the general consensus was late 1st to early 2nd. What's done is done. Question now is will Texans "reach" for need once again or if you don't want to use the term "reach" adjust their big board to weight needs purposely higher than BPA NFL grades moving forward? Take Brandon Harris, CB Miami he is closer to #20 grade, IMO than Kareem was last draft, but now the Texans are selecting #11 so do they reach again in a similar scenero?
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If a guy is considered a late 1st/early 2nd, then someone taking him at #20 isn't much of a reach. I mean, what do you consider late 1st? #25?

With the CBs that were still on the board when the Texans picked, it couldn't have been an issue of them getting desperate to find a CB and reaching. They HAD to have had a higher grade on KJ than they did for the CBs that were drafted shortly after him. They went after their guy and they got him. And if they had him graded that high, they didn't reach.

The only thing is that most people who were creating Mocks didn't have him rated so high. Just like no one with a public had Tyson Alualu rated as a 1st round pick. And it doesn't matter what a bunch of guys outside the 32 war rooms think of a pick, it only matters what those guys in the war rooms think. Theirs is the only opinions that really matter.

As a Mocker, you can have two basic approaches. The first is that you try to look at the tape and create a grade for each player based on how well you think they're going to do. But that's just your grade. And the second approach is to try to guess how the teams are going to have these guys rated so that you can figure out what to expect when they pick.


Personally, I'm in the second group. I find it interesting to see how different the rankings that the teams obviously have on players is different than the rankings that the amateurs have on those players.

So, to sum up, saying a player like KJ is a reach is just saying that some team had him rated higher than you did. Mel Kiper saying "they could have had this guy in the next round" is just Mel Kiper saying that he wouldn't have drafted that guy before the next round and nothing else. It could easily be that several teams had him on their radar.
 
The Pencil Neck said:
If a guy is considered a late 1st/early 2nd, then someone taking him at #20 isn't much of a reach. I mean, what do you consider late 1st? #25?

With the CBs that were still on the board when the Texans picked, it couldn't have been an issue of them getting desperate to find a CB and reaching. They HAD to have had a higher grade on KJ than they did for the CBs that were drafted shortly after him. They went after their guy and they got him. And if they had him graded that high, they didn't reach.

The only thing is that most people who were creating Mocks didn't have him rated so high. Just like no one with a public had Tyson Alualu rated as a 1st round pick. And it doesn't matter what a bunch of guys outside the 32 war rooms think of a pick, it only matters what those guys in the war rooms think. Theirs is the only opinions that really matter.

As a Mocker, you can have two basic approaches. The first is that you try to look at the tape and create a grade for each player based on how well you think they're going to do. But that's just your grade. And the second approach is to try to guess how the teams are going to have these guys rated so that you can figure out what to expect when they pick.


Personally, I'm in the second group. I find it interesting to see how different the rankings that the teams obviously have on players is different than the rankings that the amateurs have on those players.

So, to sum up, saying a player like KJ is a reach is just saying that some team had him rated higher than you did. Mel Kiper saying "they could have had this guy in the next round" is just Mel Kiper saying that he wouldn't have drafted that guy before the next round and nothing else. It could easily be that several teams had him on their radar.
Click to expand...

Spot On

I'm a combination of the 2.

I've got my ratings and when a player goes higher than my ranking then hopefully the scouts know more than I do.

I had Jackson going in the 40-50 range. (I had the Texans taking him in the 2nd rd) The Texans scouts ranked him higher. So that was a reach based on my rankings.

But as you said my rankings dont mean squat. But I enjoy seeing how thing turn out. So far I would trust guys like rmartin65 and BL's ratings more than Gary and Ricks ratings.

The Texans have done a really poor job drafting the last 4 yrs and this is the root of the on the field problems. Maybe this will change with a new voice (Phillips) in the war room.

I really have no confidence in Gary and Ricks war room capabilities.

In fact part timers like rmartin and BL do a better job than Rick and Gary and they dont have near the resources that Rick and Gary do. Hell last yr Gary couldn't even be bothered with going to the combine. It makes me ? his committment of the amount of time he's willing to put in to make this franchise the best it can be.

Of course with his job on the line tis yr he managed to find time to make it to the combine. BTW, what's Smiths job? Nobody really knows. It must be the best job in the world. He doesn't have to answer for the crappy drafts over the last 4 yrs. Even though he's the GM.
 
The Pencil Neck said:
If a guy is considered a late 1st/early 2nd, then someone taking him at #20 isn't much of a reach. I mean, what do you consider late 1st? #25?
Click to expand...

It is a big deal if you can upgrade position. nobody had a #20 grade on Kareem other than the Texans. why they didn't just franchise Dunta is beyond me too both frustrating & led to Texan secondary demise.

The Pencil Neck said:
With the CBs that were still on the board when the Texans picked, it couldn't have been an issue of them getting desperate to find a CB and reaching. They HAD to have had a higher grade on KJ than they did for the CBs that were drafted shortly after him. They went after their guy and they got him. And if they had him graded that high, they didn't reach.
Click to expand...

Then the Texans Big Board is a joke. absurd to make the moves they did to get in that position in first place.

The Pencil Neck said:
The only thing is that most people who were creating Mocks didn't have him rated so high. Just like no one with a public had Tyson Alualu rated as a 1st round pick. And it doesn't matter what a bunch of guys outside the 32 war rooms think of a pick, it only matters what those guys in the war rooms think. Theirs is the only opinions that really matter.
Click to expand...

Of course, this is only a fantasy of projecting college football players to the NFLfor us amature mock geeks to think anything different would be dillusional, but its still fun entertainment for some who like to know as much as possible about their team & sport they love.

The Pencil Neck said:
As a Mocker, you can have two basic approaches. The first is that you try to look at the tape and create a grade for each player based on how well you think they're going to do. But that's just your grade. And the second approach is to try to guess how the teams are going to have these guys rated so that you can figure out what to expect when they pick.
Click to expand...

As stated earlier its pure fantasy so we can mock whatever the flip we want. there are more than two approaches, in fact who really know how many different ways there are to approach this thing. Sometimes I care about who teams draft other times think about who they should draft regardless, depends more on how much I like the team if I really want to invest time & effort. Texans are a no brainer.


The Pencil Neck said:
Personally, I'm in the second group. I find it interesting to see how different the rankings that the teams obviously have on players is different than the rankings that the amateurs have on those players.
Click to expand...

I respect that, its whats fun for you so go with it. I enjoy reading your thoughts & projections.

The Pencil Neck said:
So, to sum up, saying a player like KJ is a reach is just saying that some team had him rated higher than you did. Mel Kiper saying "they could have had this guy in the next round" is just Mel Kiper saying that he wouldn't have drafted that guy before the next round and nothing else. It could easily be that several teams had him on their radar.
Click to expand...

the stuff that keeps discussion alive & well :goodpost:
 
steelbtexan said:
Spot On

I'm a combination of the 2.

I've got my ratings and when a player goes higher than my ranking then hopefully the scouts know more than I do.

I had Jackson going in the 40-50 range. (I had the Texans taking him in the 2nd rd) The Texans scouts ranked him higher. So that was a reach based on my rankings.

But as you said my rankings dont mean squat. But I enjoy seeing how thing turn out. So far I would trust guys like rmartin65 and BL's ratings more than Gary and Ricks ratings.

The Texans have done a really poor job drafting the last 4 yrs and this is the root of the on the field problems. Maybe this will change with a new voice (Phillips) in the war room.

I really have no confidence in Gary and Ricks war room capabilities.

In fact part timers like rmartin and BL do a better job than Rick and Gary and they dont have near the resources that Rick and Gary do. Hell last yr Gary couldn't even be bothered with going to the combine. It makes me ? his committment of the amount of time he's willing to put in to make this franchise the best it can be.

Of course with his job on the line tis yr he managed to find time to make it to the combine. BTW, what's Smiths job? Nobody really knows. It must be the best job in the world. He doesn't have to answer for the crappy drafts over the last 4 yrs. Even though he's the GM.
Click to expand...

gee thanks, as always a great post (even though it says only good) :goodpost:
 
beerlover said:
all this maybe true, point taken but doesn't change draft grade coming into the NFL. you have to make a grade to evaluate net worth to a team in each particular draft slot, via teams big board. sometimes it happens even in the first round but I wonder just how true teams stick to their boards when things turn out differently draft day? My draft grade may not (no probably will not) match up with your draft grade for a particular player, even in game film we may differ in what we see, or how they perform @ the combine or pro days.

That said Kareem was a borderline 1st round CB prospect. the general consensus was late 1st to early 2nd. What's done is done. Question now is will Texans "reach" for need once again or if you don't want to use the term "reach" adjust their big board to weight needs purposely higher than BPA NFL grades moving forward? Take Brandon Harris, CB Miami he is closer to #20 grade, IMO than Kareem was last draft, but now the Texans are selecting #11 so do they reach again in a similar scenero?
Click to expand...

Well, I had stated that I didn't think Haden deserves where he was picked at if based solely on game tapes. He had some pretty bad tapes. However, there was no denying that he has some ball skills; even though sometimes ha gambled and lost when there was no safety support close enough to allow for a mistake.
Then he ran a terrible time at the combine (4'50s); he did improve on it at his proday to 4.45 (which was a mere .03) faster than Jackson and McCourty.
So, Haden at #7 was a reach unless your coaching statf think that they can teach him to play more in control and to improve on his read so he can get better in run support.

When I went through all these points, I didn't see how Haden can be a better prospect than Jackson (except for the ball skills and perhaps a little more quickness.)

If Haden wasn't a reach, than Jackson definitely wasn't a reach.

Harris is not a better prospect than Jackson.
Unlike Hadden, Harris had nothing over Jackson while playing against weaker competition.
He doesn't have better ball skill; he doesn't run better with receivers; he's not better in run support; he doesn't play better man coverage.
He simply didn't do anything better than Jackson;
he didn't face better competition.
He's not taller; he's not faster; he's not quicker; he doesn't have more flexibility in the hip; he's not more physical.
Nothing!

So if one rated Jackson low 1st, early 2nd; it only makes sense that Harris is considered a mid-to-late second round prospect; which is where I have him at.

So, if the Texans take a guy like Harris at #44, it's still a reach to me; but if there's some need, I would think #44 is fine.
However, with Jackson already on board, I would rather that they go after a big corner or a guy who can really stick to the receiver like glue. (Harris is neither.)
 
steelbtexan said:
Spot On

I'm a combination of the 2.

I've got my ratings and when a player goes higher than my ranking then hopefully the scouts know more than I do.

I had Jackson going in the 40-50 range. (I had the Texans taking him in the 2nd rd) The Texans scouts ranked him higher. So that was a reach based on my rankings.

But as you said my rankings dont mean squat. But I enjoy seeing how thing turn out. So far I would trust guys like rmartin65 and BL's ratings more than Gary and Ricks ratings.

The Texans have done a really poor job drafting the last 4 yrs and this is the root of the on the field problems. Maybe this will change with a new voice (Phillips) in the war room.

I really have no confidence in Gary and Ricks war room capabilities.

In fact part timers like rmartin and BL do a better job than Rick and Gary and they dont have near the resources that Rick and Gary do. Hell last yr Gary couldn't even be bothered with going to the combine. It makes me ? his committment of the amount of time he's willing to put in to make this franchise the best it can be.

Of course with his job on the line tis yr he managed to find time to make it to the combine. BTW, what's Smiths job? Nobody really knows. It must be the best job in the world. He doesn't have to answer for the crappy drafts over the last 4 yrs. Even though he's the GM.
Click to expand...

It seems like there were quite a few folks rating Kyle Wilson way over Jackson; I wonder where you, rmartin, BL, badboy, etc. had Wilson at.

If you had Jackson between 40-50, you definitely had to have Wilson in the 3rd-4th round as to avoid not to reach on the guy!
icon7.gif
 
76Texan said:
Well, I had stated that I didn't think Haden deserves where he was picked at if based solely on game tapes. He had some pretty bad tapes. However, there was no denying that he has some ball skills; even though sometimes ha gambled and lost when there was no safety support close enough to allow for a mistake.
Then he ran a terrible time at the combine (4'50s); he did improve on it at his proday to 4.45 (which was a mere .03) faster than Jackson and McCourty.
So, Haden at #7 was a reach unless your coaching statf think that they can teach him to play more in control and to improve on his read so he can get better in run support.

When I went through all these points, I didn't see how Haden can be a better prospect than Jackson (except for the ball skills and perhaps a little more quickness.)

If Haden wasn't a reach, than Jackson definitely wasn't a reach.

Harris is not a better prospect than Jackson.
Unlike Hadden, Harris had nothing over Jackson while playing against weaker competition.
He doesn't have better ball skill; he doesn't run better with receivers; he's not better in run support; he doesn't play better man coverage.
He simply didn't do anything better than Jackson;
he didn't face better competition.
He's not taller; he's not faster; he's not quicker; he doesn't have more flexibility in the hip; he's not more physical.
Nothing!

So if one rated Jackson low 1st, early 2nd; it only makes sense that Harris is considered a mid-to-late second round prospect; which is where I have him at.

So, if the Texans take a guy like Harris at #44, it's still a reach to me; but if there's some need, I would think #44 is fine.
However, with Jackson already on board, I would rather that they go after a big corner or a guy who can really stick to the receiver like glue. (Harris is neither.)
Click to expand...

disagree with your grade (once again) but understand your point. Brandon has much better hips, smoother in transition, better corner skills in back peddle & ability to close. I'll give you the run support, more physical @ scrimmage but he is dead once he moves backward instead of forward, gets off his man to far & cannot recover, must grab & clutch to remain contact, similar more to Prince I think.
 
76Texan said:
It seems like there were quite a few folks rating Kyle Wilson way over Jackson; I wonder where you, rmartin, BL, badboy, etc. had Wilson at.

If you had Jackson between 40-50, you definitely had to have Wilson in the 3rd-4th round as to avoid not to reach on the guy!
icon7.gif
Click to expand...

I liked Wilson actually, and still do. I had him as a solid pick where we were.

Jackson I had ranked in the mid second. I liked the pick because it was a CB, but was not thrilled with the player. I felt that while he was the most pro ready (whoops!), he had the lowest ceiling (somewhere between a 2 and and a 3 corner).

It is still way too early to call either player a bust. In 2 more years we will have a better idea.
 
Had the Texans taken Wilson at #20, imagine what the fans would have called him as he sit on the bench after a few games; imagine how they would have jumped on Rick Smith. Oh no, they couldn't; because that was a pick many of them actually wanted!
 
76Texan said:
Had the Texans taken Wilson at #20, imagine what the fans would have called him as he sit on the bench after a few games; imagine how they would have jumped on Rick Smith. Oh no, they couldn't; because that was a pick many of them actually wanted!
Click to expand...

Meh. I will say that different players have success in different situations, thus it is hard to say how Wilson would have done with the Texans, and KJ with the Jets.
 
Personally, I was surprised by the KJ pick. I had other guys that were still on the board rated higher than him. Like most people, I was expecting the pick to be Wilson or McCourty.

But I'm not as down on the KJ pick as a lot of people are and I haven't given up on him, yet. I really felt that a lot of the times where it looked like he got pantsed was really him doing exactly what he was supposed to do but getting screwed by the safeties. (Not all the times but some of the times.)

He also made some gutsy stops, too. I think it was in the Jaguar game where his guy caught the ball and it looked like he could easily pick up the first but KJ stonewalled him and brought him up short. I thought that was a pretty big play in that game.

I think that if we get better safety play, KJ will be fine.
 
powda said:
If we dont have the opportunity to sign free agents prior to the draft i think we have to draft CB Amukamara (or the next best thing - Smith / Harris) with our first pick.

We cant assume anyone will want to come here in free agency.

The bottom line is we need more talent in the secondary.
Click to expand...
If Smithiak can't lure anyone to Houston in free agency, they should be fired on the spot. That is absurd and unacceptable. It doesn't have to be Nnamdi. But, it has to be someone.

And yes, the Texans need more talent in the secondary. What about talent at 3-4 OLB? Currently, the Texans have Conner Barwin coming off a broken ankle and never playing the position. Mark Anderson, Tim Jamison, & Jesse Nading never having played the position. And no one else. Which is why I find placing Cushing inside as puzzling and why OLB is the absolute most desperate need on this team. Even if the Texans do have the worst secondary in the NFL.
 
Lucky said:
If Smithiak can't lure anyone to Houston in free agency, they should be fired on the spot. That is absurd and unacceptable. It doesn't have to be Nnamdi. But, it has to be someone.

And yes, the Texans need more talent in the secondary. What about talent at 3-4 OLB? Currently, the Texans have Conner Barwin coming off a broken ankle and never playing the position. Mark Anderson, Tim Jamison, & Jesse Nading never having played the position. And no one else. Which is why I find placing Cushing inside as puzzling and why OLB is the absolute most desperate need on this team. Even if the Texans do have the worst secondary in the NFL.
Click to expand...

excellent point regarding free agency. the Texans/Rick Smith must do a better job addressing needs via free agency, they MUST.

I agree there biggest need is OLB, would even trade up to get their guy if only a few picks away (Quin/Miller) but I don't like projecting some of the guys commonly suggested (aldon, kerrigan, houston) to satisfy need.

I want & we should want a blue chip quality talent that makes his groups position the strongest on the team. To me nobody is safe & everyone open for discussion.
 
rmartin65 said:
Meh. I will say that different players have success in different situations, thus it is hard to say how Wilson would have done with the Texans, and KJ with the Jets.
Click to expand...

Of course they had different situations.
But they also had some similarities.
It's too much to go into details.
I had studied all his game tapes with the Jets until he got benched (just as I had studied McCourty's game tapes with the Pats - the first seven plus the playoffs game).

A Wilson square would be double trouble (neither Pollard nor Nolan would have been able to help Kyle).
I guarantee you would not have liked the results!
 
The Pencil Neck said:
Personally, I was surprised by the KJ pick. I had other guys that were still on the board rated higher than him. Like most people, I was expecting the pick to be Wilson or McCourty.

But I'm not as down on the KJ pick as a lot of people are and I haven't given up on him, yet. I really felt that a lot of the times where it looked like he got pantsed was really him doing exactly what he was supposed to do but getting screwed by the safeties. (Not all the times but some of the times.)

He also made some gutsy stops, too. I think it was in the Jaguar game where his guy caught the ball and it looked like he could easily pick up the first but KJ stonewalled him and brought him up short. I thought that was a pretty big play in that game.

I think that if we get better safety play, KJ will be fine.
Click to expand...

I was not surprised at all.
The wish lish that I posted on the board had either Jackson or McCourty.
And as they had comparable measurables (overall tests at the combine and pro days), Jackson remains my choice over McCourty.
The guy is simply a better overall player.
 
Lucky said:
If Smithiak can't lure anyone to Houston in free agency, they should be fired on the spot. That is absurd and unacceptable. It doesn't have to be Nnamdi. But, it has to be someone.

And yes, the Texans need more talent in the secondary. What about talent at 3-4 OLB? Currently, the Texans have Conner Barwin coming off a broken ankle and never playing the position. Mark Anderson, Tim Jamison, & Jesse Nading never having played the position. And no one else. Which is why I find placing Cushing inside as puzzling and why OLB is the absolute most desperate need on this team. Even if the Texans do have the worst secondary in the NFL.
Click to expand...

Barwin, Jamison, and Nading all had played OLB in the 3-4 for the Texans the last couple of years, especially Barwin and Nading.
Anderson didn't have a lot of snaps at that position since he's been here only one year, but yes, he also did play OLB in the 3-4 for us.

On top of that, the Weak side DE in the 4-3 is only a hand-down difference from a 3-4 WILL.

Cushing, as the 3-4 Mike, will have opportunities to blitz.
(And Wade had said that Cushing can also see time as the 3-4 SAM.)

However, I do think they can use another LB.
 
Lucky said:
If Smithiak can't lure anyone to Houston in free agency, they should be fired on the spot. That is absurd and unacceptable. It doesn't have to be Nnamdi. But, it has to be someone.

And yes, the Texans need more talent in the secondary. What about talent at 3-4 OLB? Currently, the Texans have Conner Barwin coming off a broken ankle and never playing the position. Mark Anderson, Tim Jamison, & Jesse Nading never having played the position. And no one else. Which is why I find placing Cushing inside as puzzling and why OLB is the absolute most desperate need on this team. Even if the Texans do have the worst secondary in the NFL.
Click to expand...

I agree with this.

We HAVE to get a FA CB and at least 1 FA S this offseason. We cannot draft to fill those positions... IMO.

The biggest need we have is a Rush LB. Although Barwin, Anderson, and Jamison have dabbled with the position, I think we can get someone in this draft who is a serious upgrade at that position. And rushing the QB needs to be our highest priority from the draft... IMO.

I'd also like for us to go after a good inside LB although I'm hoping that Sharpton can step up and be the second ILB and that Cushing can play SAM. If we're not going to play Cushing outside, then I think we have to pick up a SAM LB as well.

So, for me, I think we have to pick up at least 1 and possibly 2 outside linebackers in this draft depending on what we do with Cushing.
 
76Texan said:
Barwin, Jamison, and Nading all had played OLB in the 3-4 for the Texans the last couple of years, especially Barwin and Nading.
Anderson didn't have a lot of snaps at that position since he's been here only one year, but yes, he also did play OLB in the 3-4 for us.
Click to expand...
The Texans played a lot of 3-4 the past few years? Really? I would say that 99% of the time these players had their hand on the ground.

And while I agree that most of the time, a 3-4 weakside OLB will be a pass rusher, who on the Texans has the skills to play the strongside OLB over the TE? Other than Cushing, who is slated to play inside. This is huge black hole that has been created by the shift to the 3-4.
 
The Pencil Neck said:
We HAVE to get a FA CB and at least 1 FA S this offseason. We cannot draft to fill those positions... IMO.

The biggest need we have is a Rush LB. Although Barwin, Anderson, and Jamison have dabbled with the position, I think we can get someone in this draft who is a serious upgrade at that position. And rushing the QB needs to be our highest priority from the draft... IMO.

I'd also like for us to go after a good inside LB although I'm hoping that Sharpton can step up and be the second ILB and that Cushing can play SAM. If we're not going to play Cushing outside, then I think we have to pick up a SAM LB as well.

So, for me, I think we have to pick up at least 1 and possibly 2 outside linebackers in this draft depending on what we do with Cushing.
Click to expand...
I'd like to see folks help updating the list of players who are definitely will be in Texans uni before we can talk about things like this.

That's why I started a thread in the main forum.

Now we know that Allen still has one year remaining on his contract, it's debatable whether that position is important short-term.
Without Allen, it would have been an absolute must in finding a vet CB that can play the same or better.

A high caliber FA free safety is more of a need, the way I see it.
 
76Texan said:
...Jackson remains my choice over McCourty.
The guy is simply a better overall player.
Click to expand...
Rick Smith, is that you?

That's patently absurd. McCourty was one of the top rookies in the league and a legitimate starting NFL corner. Kareem Jackson was the worst CB in the league.
 
Lucky said:
The Texans played a lot of 3-4 the past few years? Really? I would say that 99% of the time these players had their hand on the ground.

And while I agree that most of the time, a 3-4 weakside OLB will be a pass rusher, who on the Texans has the skills to play the strongside OLB over the TE? Other than Cushing, who is slated to play inside. This is huge black hole that has been created by the shift to the 3-4.
Click to expand...

Where in my post did you find the word "A LOT"???

And NO, it's far from 99% of the time that you find them with hand on the ground.
There was maybe something like 70 plays (or some number near that figure), all it took is one play with them play standing up to make the figure 99% all screwed-up!
 
76Texan said:
I'd like to see folks help updating the list of players who are definitely will be in Texans uni before we can talk about things like this.

That's why I started a thread in the main forum.

Now we know that Allen still has one year remaining on his contract, it's debatable whether that position is important short-term.
Without Allen, it would have been an absolute must in finding a vet CB that can play the same or better.

A high caliber FA free safety is more of a need, the way I see it.
Click to expand...

you know then that Wade wants Glover in the middle of field meaning a move to safety though there is still some speculation if he meant SS or FS which creates vacancy @ CB.
 
Lucky said:
Rick Smith, is that you?

That's patently absurd. McCourty was one of the top rookies in the league and a legitimate starting NFL corner. Kareem Jackson was the worst CB in the league.
Click to expand...

This is beyond absurd.
Some of the worst CBs in the league are the ones out of their jobs! :mariopalm:

But nevermind, we don't need to squabble over things like children.

All I will continue to say is that whenever I bring up a position, I will back it up with game breakdown and stuffs like that.
I won't count on "memory", because obviously, memory had failed a lot of people, myself included.
 
beerlover said:
you know then that Wade wants Glover in the middle of field meaning a move to safety though there is still some speculation if he meant SS or FS which creates vacancy @ CB.
Click to expand...

True; however, I've brought up in another post that finding a guy to play nickel is easier than to find a CB.
 
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