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AFC South remaining schedules: Playoff Implications

m5kwatts

m5kwatts

Veteran
JAGUARS 6-5 overall, 2-1 vs. division, remaining opponents w-l = 26-29
at Tennessee
Oakland
at Indianapolis
Washington
at Houston

COLTS 6-5 overall, 1-2 vs. division, remaining opponents w-l = 24-31
Dallas
at Tennessee
Jacksonville
at Oakland
Tennessee

TEXANS 5-6 overall, 2-2 vs. division, remaining opponents w-l = 29-26
at Eagles
Ravens
at Titans
at Broncos
Jaguars

TITANS 5-6 overall, 1-1 vs. division, remaining opponents w-l = 30-25
Jacksonville
Indianapolis
Houston
at Kansas City
at Indianapolis

Jacksonville, Indy and Tennessee all have 3 games left vs. the AFC South and Houston has 2. I think there's a high chance that tiebreakers will be necessary to determine the division winner because it'll be a 9-7 or 10-6 tie. Needless to say the divisional games going forward are crucial for the Texans.
 
I just don't see how Indy doesn't take it. They've got no one left worth a damn to play. I think Tennessee is about to fold up like a cheap umbrella, if they haven't already.

For the Texans to have any chance the Colts will have to lose at least 1 to the Titans or Jags. Of course, that's provided the Texans take care of them themselves, and that is provided they somehow take care of business against the Eagles and Ravens.....well you get the picture. It doesn't look good.
 
Speedy said:
I just don't see how Indy doesn't take it. They've got no one left worth a damn to play. I think Tennessee is about to fold up like a cheap umbrella, if they haven't already.

For the Texans to have any chance the Colts will have to lose at least 1 to the Titans or Jags. Of course, that's provided the Texans take care of them themselves, and that is provided they somehow take care of business against the Eagles and Ravens.....well you get the picture. It doesn't look good.
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I think Dallas is going to play the Colts tough. I think the Colts win, but it won't be easy. Jacksonville has already beat the Colts once. If you think a strong running game is key to beating Indy..... Jacksonville's got it in spades.

While nobody is scared of Kerry Collins, I haven't seen them play as badly as they did with Rusty pulling the trigger. They'll be playing for the division...... & they've got a running game.

I think the Colts will lose two of those three.

Jacksonville is the team I'm worried about. If they finish 10-6, we're out.
 
I saw those schedules earlier today. That 4 game losing streak really pisses me off even more now. We blew our chance right there. Every year we blow are chances in the middle of the season. Sickening.
 
The Titans getting old man Kerry back is somewhat good. Need to root for the Titans to beat the Jaguars, and Collins is certainly an upgrade over Rusty Smith. They can potentially take Jacksonville at home here, which would be great for us.

Dallas is playing much harder now and the team seems to be making their case for Jason Garret as their head coach next year. Would not be surprised at all if the Girls take the Colts.

Assuming we take care of business (...), that would make it

Colts (6-6) (2-1 in division)
Texans (6-6) (2-2 in division)
Titans (6-6) (2-1 in division)
Jaguars (6-6) (2-2 in division)

There's no hope like false hope. :bored:
 
stingray said:
I saw those schedules earlier today. That 4 game losing streak really pisses me off even more now. We blew our chance right there. Every year we blow are chances in the middle of the season. Sickening.
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And I'm not so sure we have one of those end of the year winning streaks in us either given that remaining schedule.

It's also entirely possible the rest of the AFC South loses against their out of division opponents, split in division and the winner of the division is 8-8.
 
stingray said:
That 4 game losing streak really pisses me off even more now. We blew our chance right there. Every year we blow are chances in the middle of the season. Sickening.
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Through ten games, the Texans defense was the worst in NFL history. Forget the talk of an average defense: what pisses me off more than anything is the thought of what our record might be if we even had just last year's defense.
 
With the Colts Run D, beating the Jags one more time and sweeping the Titans is far from a sure thing.

I'm still convinced that if Arian Foster had 30 carries @ Indy we beat the Colts twice and sweep them.
 
Speedy said:
I just don't see how Indy doesn't take it. They've got no one left worth a damn to play. I think Tennessee is about to fold up like a cheap umbrella, if they haven't already.

For the Texans to have any chance the Colts will have to lose at least 1 to the Titans or Jags. Of course, that's provided the Texans take care of them themselves, and that is provided they somehow take care of business against the Eagles and Ravens.....well you get the picture. It doesn't look good.
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FWIW, I think the Texans are likely to win the division if they can finish 4-1... with two of the wins being against Tennessee and Jacksonville, that would give the Texans a 4-2 division record with a split against Jacksonville and Indy and a sweep vs. Tennessee. If the Colts were to go 3-2 in that stretch, the Texans would win the tiebreaker (either by divisional record if Indy has a loss to Tennessee or Jacksonville, or by conference record). If the Texans take care of Tennessee and Jacksonville and win two of their other three games, that would eliminate Tennessee automatically and Jacksonville could only achieve a 9-7 tie if they swept their other 4 games heading into their week seventeen contest.

All that being said, I have no clue how the Texans beat Phillie or Baltimore. I do think, even with the mediocre schedule facing the Colts, that this Indy team could easily lose two more games.
 
m5kwatts said:
JAGUARS 6-5 overall, 2-1 vs. division, remaining opponents w-l = 26-29
at Tennessee W
Oakland W
at Indianapolis W
Washington W/L
at Houston L

Probably 10-6

COLTS 6-5 overall, 1-2 vs. division, remaining opponents w-l = 24-31
Dallas W/L
at Tennessee W
Jacksonville L
at Oakland W/L
Tennessee W

Superbowl Losers Curse L

Probably 9-7
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I have a feeling that the rebuilding Jags are going to come out on top in the un-opportunistic, AFCS. The one year where the Colts shows weakness and what do the challenger, Titans and Texans do? One implodes on the field while the other implodes off. No doubt in my mind we could of won the AFCS if only our November didn't consist of yet, ANOTHER, 4 games losing. The Tits on the other hand would of been the victor of the AFCS had not their star QB were a bit cranky after not receiving cookies and milk upon waking up from his daily nap time in a game.

I fully believe in this superbowl curse, just like I do the Madden, the Heisman, and the NFCS curses. Some things in the world you just can't explain, this being one of them. So far, since the realignment of the divisions, only one division had gave the curse the big FU. Ironically, that division is the worst in NFL history, and will be sending a probably 8-8 team to the playoffs this year.
I don't think the Colts are going to the post-season this year, but then again the Cowboys, Bills, and Titans have also beaten the curse, so who knows.

So, in the end, I see the baby Jags standing after the dust has settled, which is absolutely pathetic in our part. A year after having a fairly easy schedule, and we choke away the chance of going to the playoffs after choking multiple games away. And now in a year where our division is in shambles and we can't rise up to the occasions and win games unless there's a Brad Lee Van Pelt V.2 starting on the opposite teams. We had our chances against every team we've faced in November and we pissed it away.

I have no doubt whatsoever that the Texans are going to disappoint us in one of the next two games. Any fans with hope of PO is going to get scorned for the umpteenth time again this season, and I feel bad for them. I know we've been red-hot in post-November games, in the past, but this year it looks like everything is going to come collapsing onto us.

However, I will make this observation, every year we beat a dominant team late in the season that I thought we didn't stand a chance.

'06 INDY
'07 TB
'08 TEN
'09 NE

All being at home. If up surviving Philly, we might even have a better chance than I thought against Balty. I hope that the punches AJ, rocketed against Innergan, fires this damn team up. I would just hate to see that another year of AJ's passion, commitment, loyalty, and fight (no pun intended) is wasted again on these bunch of losers.

I'll just wait and see how they do this Thursday before deciding to be hood-winked, again, by those chokers.
 
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Indy is banged up right now and are a shell of what they usually are. I could see them loosing 2 or 3 more games easily.
 
In order to make the playoffs, it's all but certain we have to win our division. And in order to do that, we pretty much have to win these 5 remaining games. Even if we go undefeated, we have to hope for a loss (or more) from our division opponents and even begin rooting for some unlikely AFC/NFC teams.

For this exercise, I went with the Colts as the most likely to give us a run for our money. I think the Titans are done, but the Jags could prove to be a team that comes out on top. Colts have 2 games against the Titans and 1 against the Jags left which will really have an effect on our chances for the playoffs.

Now check out these assumptions and the tie-breaking procedures:

Texans win our remaining 5 games.
Colts lose to Dallas and then win remaining 4 games.

Both teams would have a 10-6 overall record and tie for AFC South champion.
1. Head to Head: Both 1-1
2. Division Games: Both 4-2
3. Common Games: Both 8-4
4. Conference Games: Both 8-4
5. Strength of Victory.

If this is the case, it comes dow the 5th tie-breaker which is Strength of Victory. To factory this, we combine the records of the opponents of each teams' WINS.

We will have wins against: IND, WAS, OAK, KC, TEN, PHI, BAL, TEN, DEN & JAC.

Colts will have wins against: NYG, DEN, KC, WAS, HOU, CIN, TEN, JAC, OAK & TEN.

By my calculation (as of today) the opponents we have won against have a 57-53 record while Indy's has a 51-59 record. I believe I added these right. Obviously by the end of the season this will change. Right now we'd win the tie-breaker.

So what we all need to be rooting for are obviously our division foes to lose whenever possible. If it comes to us and Indy, we need the opponents we won against to keep winning and the opponents Indy won against to lose. We have several common opponents we have both won against which will wash each other out.

The following teams are the uncommon games that our teams have won against. We need to root for ours to win and Indy's to lose. THey are as follows:

Texans - Philadelphia Eagles and Baltimore Ravens
Colts - New York Giants and Cincinnati Bengals

The good news is that the Eagles and Ravens are good teams and should continue winning, they will help our SoV percentage while the Giants are good... the Bengals suck (2 wins) and are hurting the Colts SoV percentage. All of the other wins we have and the Colts have are against the same teams.

Obviously there are a lot of scenarios that can unfold over the next 5 weeks but the most important thing is that WE need to win our games. If Jacksonville wins out (save our game) we'd both be 10-6, 1-1 head to head, 4-2 in the division but we would win the common game tiebreaker with 8 wins to their 7.
 
if we are going to lose a game it needs to be against balt. the third tie breaker is common games(ahead of conference games) and that is the team that we play and they dont.
 
BetaV1 said:
Through ten games, the Texans defense was the worst in NFL history. Forget the talk of an average defense: what pisses me off more than anything is the thought of what our record might be if we even had just last year's defense.
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Thats the thing , they have last years defense minus Pay Me Rick for the most part - outside of suspensions and injuries.


Did one player have this great an effect upon the defense to go from pretty damn good to the worst defense in history ? I dont think so. I think its a lack of adjustments on the part of the same guy who gets credit for turning around last years defense.
 
I was just bored so I went to look at the strength of schedule up to this point so far in the season. Our Texans have played the toughest shechule in the division. The W-L records for the teams we have faced so far is 65-56, then followed by the Colts with a 62-59, then Titians w/ 60-61 and followed by the Jags with a 55-66.

This team seems to wake up in December the last couple of years and if they roll off a 5-0 or a 4-1, I can see us winning the division. Payton is getting hit more times ever in his carrer and your starting to see he doesn't like it with the 7 INT's over the last 2 games. I believe the Jags and Titans just suck and are going to fall by the wayside!

HAVE FAITH!!!
 
DX-TEX said:
http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/playoffscenario?algorithm=yahooranker

Used this last year to follow playoff scenarios. Great lottle tool.

Wont let you start changing things until week 14 for some reason though.
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Cool program. Looks like they have us losing to the Eagles on lock. :(

Good news is we can still make it. Bad news is it looks like we'll be facing the Jets/Patriots in the 1st round and if we make it to the 2nd it'd be Patriots/Steelers. yikes.
 
Ole Miss Texan said:
Cool program. Looks like they have us losing to the Eagles on lock. :(

Good news is we can still make it. Bad news is it looks like we'll be facing the Jets/Patriots in the 1st round and if we make it to the 2nd it'd be Patriots/Steelers. yikes.
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They also have Indy, Pitts, Phi , NE, Atl & SD winning out, Jacksonville going 4-1 ...

I can't put a whole lot of faith in this as of now.
 
BetaV1 said:
Dallas is playing much harder now and the team seems to be making their case for Jason Garret as their head coach next year. Would not be surprised at all if the Girls take the Colts.
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I'll be rooting for the gurls, but when was the last time the Colts lost 3 in a row?
 
JB said:
They also have Indy, Pitts, Phi , NE, Atl & SD winning out, Jacksonville going 4-1 ...

I can't put a whole lot of faith in this as of now.
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You can change the outcomes of the games manually. You did realize that didnt you?
 
JB said:
No, I didn't. I was just going by what they had.
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Right now it defaults to Yahoo Sports power rankings. You can switch that and then go in and manually picke winners of each game for each week.
 
Ole Miss Texan said:
Cool program. Looks like they have us losing to the Eagles on lock. :(

Good news is we can still make it. Bad news is it looks like we'll be facing the Jets/Patriots in the 1st round and if we make it to the 2nd it'd be Patriots/Steelers. yikes.
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True...but if we can make it, I'll take my chances. I'll just be happy we're in the mix.
 
DX-TEX said:
http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/playoffscenario?algorithm=yahooranker

Used this last year to follow playoff scenarios. Great lottle tool.

Wont let you start changing things until week 14 for some reason though.
Click to expand...

In the last few weeks of the 2009 season, I was on there every day seeing what it would take for us to make it. Everything worked out perfectly for us except the Colts laying down against the Jets. Wish we could've taken care of business ourselves (last year and this), but it is a pretty cool tool.
 
Am I the only one who thinks this division could be won with an 8-8 record? The whole AFC South is playing like crap and that very well could continue to til seasons end.
 
m5kwatts said:
Am I the only one who thinks this division could be won with an 8-8 record? The whole AFC South is playing like crap and that very well could continue to til seasons end.
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It's possible but HIGHLY unlikely. The Texans mathematically could still win the division outright with an 8-8 record.

Jacksonville - lose to @ TEN, OAK, WAS and @HOU; win @ IND
Indianapolis - lose to DAL, @TEN, JAC, @OAK; win TEN
Tennessee - lose to HOU, @KC, @IND; win JAC, IND
Texans - lose @PHI, BAL; win @TEN, @DEN, JAC

That puts us at 8-8 and the rest of the AFC South at 7-9.

Heck we could lose @DEN and have a 7-9 record. There'd be a 4 way tie, all of us with losing records but we'd go to the playoffs because of a 4-2 division record.

Now I wonder :thinking:... what would the Kubiak haters think? If at the beginning and throughout the season they said "playoffs or bust", if the Texans were to make the playoffs with a 7-9 record, he automatically stays? LOL
 
Ole Miss Texan said:
It's possible but HIGHLY unlikely. The Texans mathematically could still win the division outright with an 8-8 record.

Jacksonville - lose to @ TEN, OAK, WAS and @HOU; win @ IND
Indianapolis - lose to DAL, @TEN, JAC, @OAK; win TEN
Tennessee - lose to HOU, @KC, @IND; win JAC, IND
Texans - lose @PHI, BAL; win @TEN, @DEN, JAC

That puts us at 8-8 and the rest of the AFC South at 7-9.

Heck we could lose @DEN and have a 7-9 record. There'd be a 4 way tie, all of us with losing records but we'd go to the playoffs because of a 4-2 division record.

Now I wonder :thinking:... what would the Kubiak haters think? If at the beginning and throughout the season they said "playoffs or bust", if the Texans were to make the playoffs with a 7-9 record, he automatically stays? LOL
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Lol see, this is exactly my point. It's more important for the Texans to be lucky right now than good.

And in terms of Kubiak, I think if the team made the playoffs even at 7-9, Bob would have too hard of a time firing him. However I can't see Frank Bush saving his job unless the defense continues pitching shutouts to finish the year and plays out of its mind.
 
m5kwatts said:
Lol see, this is exactly my point. It's more important for the Texans to be lucky right now than good.

And in terms of Kubiak, I think if the team made the playoffs even at 7-9, Bob would have too hard of a time firing him. However I can't see Frank Bush saving his job unless the defense continues pitching shutouts to finish the year and plays out of its mind.
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And I hope that's not enough! He needs to go.
 
Colts and Jags have nobody left to play. Besides the Cowgirls, Indy should win them all. The Texans play the Eagles and Ravens. Not looking good IMO.
 
Super Mario said:
Colts and Jags have nobody left to play. Besides the Cowgirls, Indy should win them all. The Texans play the Eagles and Ravens. Not looking good IMO.
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IF we're a play-off team, we'll have to beat teams like the Eagles & Ravens.

If we don't beat them, we have no business talking about play-offs, & everyone saying Kubiak needs to go..........






would be right.
 
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