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Puzzling AJ Stats

CloakNNNdagger

CloakNNNdagger

Hall of Fame
This thread is in no way to diss AJ and his accomplishments. However, I was curious about an impression that I have borne over the years and wanted to look into. Outside of some scattered "highlight reel" moments of AJ dragging several tacklers with him after a catch, it seemed to me that over the years, AJ not uncommonly has gone down quickly after the catch.

I found this interesting set of NFL stats published by STATS LLC which left me asking myself more questions.


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AJ is 3rd in the AFC for receiving yards.

AJ is 4th in the NFL for receiving yards.


AJ is tied for 4th (3 way) in the AFC for big catches (>25 yards).

AJ is tied for 5th (6 way) in the NFL for big catches (>25 yards).


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AJ is tied (2 way) for only 16th in the AFC for receiver yards after the catch. (BTW, Arian Foster is #1)

AJ is not even ranked within the top 20 in the NFL for receiver yards after the catch (Arian Foster is #4)


AJ is only 13th in the AFC for receiver yards per catch.

AJ is not even ranked within the top 20 in the NFL for receiver yards per catch.


AJ is tied for 2nd (5 way) in the AFC for receiver dropped catches.

AJ is tied for 3rd (9 way) in the NFL for receiver dropped catches.


AJ is tied for 15th (6 way) in the AFC for touchdown receptions.

AJ is not even ranked within the top 20 in the NFL for touchdown receptions.


AJ is not even ranked with the top 20 in the AFC for % passes caught/target.

AJ is not even ranked with the top 20 in the NFL for % passes caught/target.


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*There are other receiving stats that you can pull up on the above linked site if you wish.
 
CloakNNNdagger said:
This thread is in no way to diss AJ and his accomplishments. However, I was curious about an impression that I have borne over the years and wanted to look into. Outside of some scattered "highlight reel" moments of AJ dragging several tacklers with him after a catch, it seemed to me that over the years, AJ not uncommonly has gone down quickly after the catch.

I found this interesting set of NFL stats published by STATS LLC which left me asking myself more questions.


******************************


AJ is 3rd in the AFC for receiving yards.

AJ is 4th in the NFL for receiving yards.


AJ is tied for 4th (3 way) in the AFC for big catches (>25 yards).

AJ is tied for 5th (6 way) in the NFL for big catches (>25 yards).


******************************


AJ is tied (2 way) for only 16th in the AFC for receiver yards after the catch. (BTW, Arian Foster is #1)

AJ is not even ranked within the top 20 in the NFL for receiver yards after the catch (Arian Foster is #4)

Now how many of those with higher yards after catch are RB? They are always getting the ball on screens etc where they have running room ahead of them. How many WRs are ahead of him?

AJ is only 13th in the AFC for receiver yards per catch.

AJ is not even ranked within the top 20 in the NFL for receiver yards per catch.

I expect many of those above him are stretch the field guys, AJ is our workhouse reciever.

AJ is tied for 2nd (5 way) in the AFC for receiver dropped catches.

AJ is tied for 3rd (9 way) in the NFL for receiver dropped catches.

Not surprising given all the times Schaub forces bad passes into coverage to him.

AJ is tied for 15th (6 way) in the AFC for touchdown receptions.

AJ is not even ranked within the top 20 in the NFL for touchdown receptions.


AJ is not even ranked with the top 20 in the AFC for % passes caught/target.

AJ is not even ranked with the top 20 in the NFL for % passes caught/target.

Again this is on Schaub forcing balls at AJ.
*************************


*There are other receiving stats that you can pull up on the above linked site if you wish.
Click to expand...

All easily accounted for I feel. Responses above in Red.
 
Between AJ's bum ankle and unwise use of the offensive talent on this team, I'm not suprised.
 
If you notice when AJ is thrown the ball, there is a guy on him or right next to him just about every time. I would consider this more or less a result of double-teaming in terms of YACs.

On top of that, guys that tend to have high YACs like Kenny Britt or DeSean Jackson have QBs who can throw a bomb 60 yards down the field in stride, leaving the DBs unable to catch up. AJ, on the other hand, consistently has to turn and wait for the ball.

I would be willing to bet that a guy like Peyton/Vick/Rivers/Brady would be unbelievably scary with AJ. Unfortunately, our QB is above average, but is a typical WCO QB in that he is very good at the short-medium throws, but suffers on the long ball.
 
The only thing that has ever bothered me about AJ, besides the occasional drop, is his yardage to TD ratio. IMO, he isn't targeted enough in the redzone. We hardly ever throw fade routes to him when he obviously has every advantage over CBs.

You have to feed the beast for the beast to beast.
 
AJ has never been a YAC or TD machine. And the QB argument doesn't hold up, because the greatest YAC WR in the history of the NFL had a QB that wouldn't be described as strong-armed by anyone. In fact, "typical WCO QB" was invented by the man, pretty much.

HOU-TEX said:
The only thing that has ever bothered me about AJ, besides the occasional drop, is his yardage to TD ratio. IMO, he isn't targeted enough in the redzone. We hardly ever throw fade routes to him when he obviously has every advantage over CBs.

You have to feed the beast for the beast to beast.
Click to expand...

This is the part that bothers me. Perhaps they know something we don't. Maybe AJ sucks at running the fade route. I don't know. I just know that if I were an OC, AJ would be a prime weapon in the EZ.
 
Bad ankle and Schaub underthrowing! Does Schaub think AJ is slow or something? AJ is freaking 4.3 speed!!! The Jags game, AJ burned Mathis on the post corner route and had him beat at least 10 yards.
 
qman_tx said:
Bad ankle and Schaub underthrowing! Does Schaub think AJ is slow or something? AJ is freaking 4.3 speed!!! The Jags game, AJ burned Mathis on the post corner route and had him beat at least 10 yards.
Click to expand...

The problem is that by the time Matt gets back and set to throw, AJ has already out run his arm.
 
JB said:
The problem is that by the time Matt gets back and set to throw, AJ has already out run his arm.
Click to expand...

That might be true, but AJ usually gets that wide open due to play-action. IMO, Schaub is very good with his play-action fakes and he might take a bit more time than normal.

I's just piggy-backin on your post cuz we pretty much agree
 
HOU-TEX said:
That might be true, but AJ usually gets that wide open due to play-action. IMO, Schaub is very good with his play-action fakes and he might take a bit more time than normal.

I's just piggy-backin on your post cuz we pretty much agree
Click to expand...

I think you said it better than I did.
 
Texan_Bill said:
Stump-humper?? Okay Mr. Solidity! :ahhaha:
Click to expand...

That's me!

"Now it’s solid
Solid as a rock [Ooh]
That’s what this love is (Oh…oh…)
That’s what we’ve got [Oh…oh…] (Yes, it is)"

"Solid
Solid as a rock
And nothing’s changed it [Oh…]
The thrill is still hot, hot, hot, hot, hot, hot, hot, hot"
 
silvrhand said:
And the fact that Matt can't hit a receiver in stride on a long throw consistently..
Click to expand...

I'm a fan of Schaub, but this is one of his glaring weaknessess. Drives me crazy, because you can see open field just waiting to be taken if he'd just hit his WR in stride.

TheCD said:
If you notice when AJ is thrown the ball, there is a guy on him or right next to him just about every time. I would consider this more or less a result of double-teaming in terms of YACs.

On top of that, guys that tend to have high YACs like Kenny Britt or DeSean Jackson have QBs who can throw a bomb 60 yards down the field in stride, leaving the DBs unable to catch up. AJ, on the other hand, consistently has to turn and wait for the ball.

I would be willing to bet that a guy like Peyton/Vick/Rivers/Brady would be unbelievably scary with AJ. Unfortunately, our QB is above average, but is a typical WCO QB in that he is very good at the short-medium throws, but suffers on the long ball.
Click to expand...

I have absolutely no doubt that if AJ were matched up with a Brady or Manning he would get multiple rings. And he'd probably get at least one with the other QBs you mentioned, especially when you consider that they have coaches that know how to game plan and work within the ebb and flow during games.
 
HOU-TEX said:
I think we all would, stump-humper. We're just looking at faults in his game, which are likely not really his fault.
Click to expand...

His biggest fault?

He hasn't managed to mentor another receiver to be exactally like him in every way.

Other than that, the guy is a stud receiver.
 
AJ was actually high on YAC his first couple seasons. Scheme has a lot to do with it. All the HWWNBN really short fast passes he would run out for additional yardage. Now he is generally targeted much further down the field and closer to the safety coverage.

HOU-TEX said:
That might be true, but AJ usually gets that wide open due to play-action. IMO, Schaub is very good with his play-action fakes and he might take a bit more time than normal.
Click to expand...

Schaub has one of the best play actions in the league but as an example of this AJ was wide open against the Hags when Rashean Mathis bit hook, line and sinker on play action. Two steps toward the LOS and AJ was gone.

Double Barrel said:
I'm a fan of Schaub, but this is one of his glaring weaknessess. Drives me crazy, because you can see open field just waiting to be taken if he'd just hit his WR in stride.
Click to expand...

The phenomenon is definitely there but the cause is uncertain to me. Schaub has indicated on several occasions that what people have thought were poorly thrown balls were intentional placement by him. He has talked about throwing it if anything short rather than long to make sure the WR has a play on the ball. He has talked about throwing low (lots of TE passes over the middle) or high (AJ on the sidelines) even though it makes the catch more difficult in order to minimize the chance of an INT. Not sure if it is his idea or his coaching. The arm seems least likely to me as it happens on 30 yard in the air passes and then he'll chuck one 50 yards. He clearly does not have the zip of Vick or McNabb, etc. though.
 
kiwitexansfan said:
All easily accounted for I feel. Responses above in Red.
Click to expand...

I don't believe it's that easy. I've been harping on the offense all season long, because something just doesn't look right & hasn't since the season started.

It's not just a Matt issue, but the OL (WTF... they were better last year with the back-ups), the receivers & the TEs....... doesn't make a lot of sense, unless you think something is going on in the locker room.........


like a mutiny. & for some reason, they are screaming for a change.
 
JB said:
The problem is that by the time Matt gets back and set to throw, AJ has already out run his arm.
Click to expand...

They didn't have that problem last year.

Did Schaub's arm shrink, or is AJ faster with the bum ankle?
 
thunderkyss said:
You're right, about 1500 yards of it.
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Schaub has not been able to hit AJ in stride on a long pass that I can remember. No one is saying they are not completing passes, it;s that AJ does not get a lot of YAC. And he did not get a lot last year, considering how many receptions he had.
 
Anyone consider that all these problems might come from, you know, the brand new offensive coordinator who was an Oline coach and has been a coordinator for all of 2 years? Doesn't exactly scream powerhouse offense.
 
infantrycak said:
The phenomenon is definitely there but the cause is uncertain to me. Schaub has indicated on several occasions that what people have thought were poorly thrown balls were intentional placement by him. He has talked about throwing it if anything short rather than long to make sure the WR has a play on the ball. He has talked about throwing low (lots of TE passes over the middle) or high (AJ on the sidelines) even though it makes the catch more difficult in order to minimize the chance of an INT. Not sure if it is his idea or his coaching. The arm seems least likely to me as it happens on 30 yard in the air passes and then he'll chuck one 50 yards. He clearly does not have the zip of Vick or McNabb, etc. though.
Click to expand...

Very interesting points, 'cak, and something I did not really consider. I can see how threading the needle with passes will give someone the impression that he's throwing behind WRs. Another aspect is that leading receivers can often take them right into big hits, so perhaps part of it is to place the ball in a position to make a catch and hold onto it without running full steam into a waiting defender. Thanks for the heads up on Schaub's comments. I haven't heard that before now.
 
I don't think Schaub really has the arm to fully take advantage of AJ (And JJ's) talents.

He doesn't have zip on his passes and often times the receivers are being contacted as the balls arrive.

It's ok to let your receivers go and get some passes. They shouldn't always have to slow up for a ball or turn completley around to catch it. Also, our short yardage passing would be much more efficient with some zip on the ball.

Matt is really accurate and he always keeps his head down field, but his arm keeps him from making some throws.

Doesn't mean you can't win with him, just means that the offense as a whole has to be clicking.

Matt isn't going to ever be a Peyton Manning, Tom Brady or Phillip Rivers type QB. Those guys can go out an perform despite missing players...despite the O-lines giving up pressure...Despite having low end receivers to throw the ball to...Despite what the running game is doing.

Matt needs to be in a good system and he needs to get in a rythm.


As far as AJ...He is not really a big YAC guy, so I'm not surprised about that. He can turn up field and get what he can get, but I think he'd be a lot better if he were able to catch some balls in stride and not have to stop or slow down as much.
 
Texas T said:
He drops balls just fine with how Schaub throws!
Click to expand...

Let Jacoby get to a team with a coach who knows what he's doing, and
you'll get a decent example of what he can do. We have yet to see
any player improve under Kubiak. They come in, and are gangbusters
in their first year. After that, it's all dramatic decline.
 
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