barrett
All Pro
Very interesting look at the Texans inability to get stops going into the half and closing out leads.
4) Will the Red Carpet Prevent Zone be put away?
There were many fair criticisms of Frank Bush's first year as defensive coordinator. His blitzes were uninspired, his scheme was vanilla, and his first three games might rank right up there with the worst three game stretch any defense has had in NFL history.
However, the most glaring and obvious flaw, one that was being pointed out as early as the Arizona game, was this team's tendency to be absolutely horrendous during end of half and prevent situations. Here is some evidence of this effect:
Game 2 @ Tennessee: End of first half drive for Tennessee: 10 plays, 59 yards, 2:11 elapsed, Field Goal.
Game 5 @ Arizona: End of first half drives for Arizona: 7 plays, 68 yards, 2:35 elapsed, Touchdown. Then after a quick three and out, 3 plays, 48 yards, 0:53 elapsed, Touchdown.
Game 6 @ Cincinnati: End of first half drives for Cincinnati: 6 plays, 69 yards, 1:31 elapsed, Touchdown. After a Schaub interception at nearly midfield, the Bengals had a one play drive to tack on a field goal.
Game 7 vs. San Francisco: Texans go up 21-0 at halftime, spend the entire second half getting murdered by Alex Smith and Vernon Davis, barely win.
Game 8 @ Buffalo: End of first half drive for Buffalo: 8 plays, 32 yards, 2:00 elapsed, Field Goal. (Okay, this seems pretty tame, but remember that it was the Bills.)
Game 10 vs. Tennessee: End of first half drive for Tennessee: 8 plays, 75 yards, 3:11 elapsed, Touchdown. End of second half drive for Tennessee: 9 plays, 56 yards, 2:05 elapsed. Field Goal (GW).
Game 11 vs Indianapolis: Texans lead 17-0 after the first drive of the second quarter, 20-7 at halftime. Spend the entire second half getting murdered by Peyton Manning (although that happens to everyone), with a little help from a Schaub pick six and the offense giving away field position like Kerns gives it up for Ben Tate, lose 35-27.
Game 12 @ Jacksonville: End of first half drive for Jacksonville: 9 plays, 52 yards, 1:51 elapsed. Field Goal.
Game 13 vs Seattle: End of first half drive for Seattle: 6 plays, 84 yards, 2:15 elapsed, Touchdown. This was their only score of the entire game.
Game 14 @ St. Louis: End of first half drive for St. Louis: 7 plays, 25 yards, 2:33 elapsed. Touchdown. With a little help from bad punt coverage.
Game 15 @ MIami: Texans go up 27-0, then give up an 18 play, 61 yard end of first half drive that takes off 4:18, Miami kicks a field goal. Texans then spend the entire rest of the second half laying down arms and getting pummeled by Chad Henne and Lex Hilliard, barely hold on to win 27-20.
Game 16 vs. New England. End of first half drive for New England: 10 plays, 47 yards, 3:55 elapsed. Field Goal. With Brian Hoyer leading the charge.
Add it all up and that's three games that the Texans defense turned from blowouts into close games (yes, they were helped by the offense, but they still gave up the points) and by my count, 63 of our 333 points allowed came on drives that could have ended a half or a game. Trust me, I'm wincing typing it, so I know how it must feel to read it.
So while there were many critiques of Bush, this is the one that the Texans have to work on most: stop giving away points at the end of the half. Stop breathing new life into dead teams.
5) Can Gary Kubiak start closing out close games against good teams?
Kubiak took a ton of heat after the Texans dropped to 5-7 and he seemed to be on the verge of being fired. Perhaps the most telling statistic that fans have pointed out is his 7-17 career record against the AFC South, with 3 of those wins coming in 2006. While that's certainly a damning statistic, I'd like to point out one of my own:
The Texans are, by my count, 16-17 in games decided by less than 8 points under Gary Kubiak. That doesn't seem so bad, does it? In fact, after watching the middle of last year, I bet that sounds damn great, huh? However, if we expand this a little farther, we can see the true culprit is that the Texans just aren't winning the close games against good teams. The combined win-loss record of the teams that the Texans have beaten by 8 or less points in the Kubiak era is 108-148, or as a percentage: .421. The combined win-loss record of the teams the Texans have lost to by 8 or less points in the Kubiak era is 163-109, or as a percentage, .599.
The Texans have beaten five teams over .500 under Kubiak's watch in a close game. They have lost nine. If you kick out the teams that were just a game over .500, it drops to 4-9. That might have been good enough for the Texans in 2006, but now that they are a team with a real chance at the playoffs, they simply can't afford to drop that many close games to good teams and make the playoffs. Yes, Kubiak had some help from Kris Brown last year, but in the end, your record is your record. The Texans aren't going to be better than a near .500 team until they start closing out against good teams, especially against the schedule the NFL has drawn up for them this year.
Looks like sustained one heck of alot of Red Carpet Burns.
