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Schedule must be weighed in predicting outcomes

beerlover

Hall of Fame
Pro Football Weely writer Eric Edholm came up with a slightly different angle to rate the Texans chances this year & the brutel truth is I agree until the Texans can prove differently http://www.profootballweekly.com/2010/05/24/schedule-must-be-weighed-in-predicting-outcomes

who will be hurt by the schedule

Texans

How’s this for an opening trio? They get the Colts, winners of all but one of the franchise’s games in Houston, at home. Then it’s a road trip to Washington to face their former play-caller in Kyle Shanahan and what should be a much better Redskins team. And third, they get the Cowboys in Houston, and you can bet that Jerry Jones hasn’t forgotten that Sunday night game, the first regular-season contest in Texans history, in which Jones’ Cowboys were embarrassed. Mind you, these all will be played without star LB Brian Cushing, who will miss the first four. It doesn’t let up much at all. There are home games against the Giants, Chargers and Ravens, plus tough road assignments at the Jets and Eagles, as well as the Colts rematch in Indy, where the team’s record is awful. Those ready to vault the Texans up to the next level had better consider this thorny schedule before doing so.
 

thunderkyss

Just win baby!!!
Staff member
Contributor's Club
Pro Football Weely writer Eric Edholm came up with a slightly different angle to rate the Texans chances this year & the brutel truth is I agree until the Texans can prove differently http://www.profootballweekly.com/2010/05/24/schedule-must-be-weighed-in-predicting-outcomes
Sorry, I'm not seeing anything different about that article. Saying the same thing I've been hearing since the schedule was announced.

Let me ask you this.. If you watch an athlete training, working out, getting stronger everyday, do you say "I won't believe he can press 225, until I see it?"

Truth is, that he can't do it, until he proves it. But If you're watching him train, he's doing the right things, he's making steady progress, you should have a reasonable idea when he's ready to lift 225 right?

I understand there are some differences, lifting 225, isn't going to be any harder than it is today. 225, is 225, right? The schedule does present a different challenge, and will determine the outcome.

But if the Colts had our schedule, and they went 9-7, and missed the play-offs, are they a bad team? Or do they still belong in that upper echelon? If you look at our schedule, and you think the Colts are so good, they'll win 12 games regardless (if they had our schedule). I think we can look at the Texans the same way. Not that we are in the same "league" with the Colts, not that we'll win 12 games, but I think we are one of the better teams in the league. I think we are a 10-12 win team. With the difficulty of our schedule, I'm predicting we'll hit the bottom of that range, with 10 wins. If we win more than 10 games, I think that will be because one or more of the teams we face, won't be as good as predicted.

Hopefully, that would be the Colts. But we'll see.
 

IDEXAN

Hall of Fame
Contributor's Club
Of course !
This is why lots of us give the Texans less of a chance to make it to the playoffs this year than they had last year, which was such a golden opportunity but which was frankly blown by Kubiak with some of his inept coaching including sideline calls during certain games and pregame preperation (opening day in reliant vs NY Jets !).
If they can somehow win 4 games (or more) in their division (last year they won ONE game in their division), they got a shot but otherwise forgetaboutit.
 

dalemurphy

Hall of Fame
Of course !
This is why lots of us give the Texans less of a chance to make it to the playoffs this year than they had last year, which was such a golden opportunity but which was frankly blown by Kubiak with some of his inept coaching including sideline calls during certain games and pregame preperation (opening day in reliant vs NY Jets !).
If they can somehow win 4 games (or more) in their division (last year they won ONE game in their division), they got a shot but otherwise forgetaboutit.
Of course I would feel better about the Texans chances if they were in the NFC west or AFC west. That being said, I find it hard to be intimidated by opponents on the schedule considering that we are an ascending team and, after week one last season, I never saw this team over-matched. We have similar schedules to Tennessee and INDY. Simply put: we just need to win the division. Indy/Tennessee/ and Houston have essentially identical schedules, except that the Texans don't have to play my pick for AFC champions in 2010... meanwhile, Indy and Tennessee both have to play that team twice!!:hurrah:
 

Thorn

Dirty Old Man
So what their schedule is tuff? It's time they step up and play hard with the big boys. If they can't, then we know Kubiac hasn't got it.

We shall know soon enough.
 

AcresHomesTexan

No Longer Arlington: Escaped From Jerry's World
Staff member
Every team in the NFC East and AFC south is in top 10 is toughest schedules, so what the Texans face is not significantly different than thier division opponents. I will save the normal we don't know if this scheulde is tough stuff for someone else.

Bottomline for me, if the Texans on the road at Washington and at home for Dallas are games that the Texans are probably slight favorites..i.e. while not easy those are games that good teams win more of than lose. The schedule is not an excuse for good teams. I am holding the Texans a standard of playoffs and the ability to win in the playoffs. If they are a good football team, there nothing about that schedule that will keep them out of the playoffs.
 

Ole Miss Texan

Hall of Fame
We were Top 5 in Offensive Yards and Top 10 in Points Per Game last year with a TERRIBLE offensive line (season ending injuries to both starting Guards), NO running game whatsoever and a Pro Bowl TE that was out the last half of the season.

I'm going to go out on a limb and say that our Offensive Line is going to be better in both Run and Pass blocking, our RB's are going to be MUCH more successful and Daniels comes back healthy. I think our offense is going to be better and keep us in a lot of games and outright win others. Particularly these early season games that are tough, I think our Offense steps up and takes care of business.

Schaub and Andre have developed into REALLY big leaders for this team. They are so hungry to win and not repeat mistakes from previous seasons. Everyone is saying how tough our schedule is... but I think this is going to be a really successful year for us.
 

IDEXAN

Hall of Fame
Contributor's Club
We have similar schedules to Tennessee and INDY. Simply put: we just need to win the division.
Obviously, but saying it and doing it are 2 different things for the Texans.
If we are > .500 in the Division, then we got a shot at the playoffs. This year Kubiak had better get the season opener in Reliant vs Indy right !
 

Texan_Bill

Hall of Fame
Obviously, but saying it and doing it are 2 different things for the Texans.
If we are > .500 in the Division, then we got a shot at the playoffs. This year Kubiak had better get the season opener in Reliant vs Indy right !
YUP!! We better not see a turd like last year's season opener v. the Jets. :foottap:
 

Grforces

Waterboy
I agree with you guys, that the scheduale dosent mean as much as some people are making it out to be. Yeah its hard, but this team can handle it. Every game means something during the reg. season. If we can make it to the play offs with this hard scheduale then we can go all the way. We need something like this to set the standard on how hard we play.
Besides its going to make the games that much more fun to watch, and when we win its gonna be great to hear the douche bags on tv talk about how the texans are a team on the rise.
 

Goldensilence

hipster elite
Of course I would feel better about the Texans chances if they were in the NFC west or AFC west. That being said, I find it hard to be intimidated by opponents on the schedule considering that we are an ascending team and, after week one last season, I never saw this team over-matched. We have similar schedules to Tennessee and INDY. Simply put: we just need to win the division. Indy/Tennessee/ and Houston have essentially identical schedules, except that the Texans don't have to play my pick for AFC champions in 2010... meanwhile, Indy and Tennessee both have to play that team twice!!:hurrah:
I don't know, I saw them totally over-matched week 1 out of the gates against the Jets. Unless something changes during the off-season this team just isn't very physical on the offensive side of the ball. The defense is going to lose a big portion of its physical presence the first 4 games of the season as well.

What bothered me wasn't that the team was over matched in general, but it was often out-coached or was subject to questionable playcalling and keeping questionable players on the roster.

This should really be Gary's year. No excuses. He's had plenty of time to fill out the roster with his guys. Playoffs or get fired.

Obviously, but saying it and doing it are 2 different things for the Texans.
If we are > .500 in the Division, then we got a shot at the playoffs. This year Kubiak had better get the season opener in Reliant vs Indy right !
Considering the Texans have had one year of being .500 in the division this is going to be no small feat. I agree though if we can manage to go 3-3 or better we'll have a good shot at making the wildcard.
 

badboy

Hall of Fame
We were Top 5 in Offensive Yards and Top 10 in Points Per Game last year with a TERRIBLE offensive line (season ending injuries to both starting Guards), NO running game whatsoever and a Pro Bowl TE that was out the last half of the season.

I'm going to go out on a limb and say that our Offensive Line is going to be better in both Run and Pass blocking, our RB's are going to be MUCH more successful and Daniels comes back healthy. I think our offense is going to be better and keep us in a lot of games and outright win others. Particularly these early season games that are tough, I think our Offense steps up and takes care of business.

Schaub and Andre have developed into REALLY big leaders for this team. They are so hungry to win and not repeat mistakes from previous seasons. Everyone is saying how tough our schedule is... but I think this is going to be a really successful year for us.
There you go. :goodpost:Confidence in themselves especially the newer guys like Quin, Foster,Barwin, Cush, McCain and also with Slaton will be helpful for the entire team. I expect the D to step up immensely.

I fear no team on this schedule. The only fear is the unknown such as injuries.
Lace 'em up and play some ball.
 

beerlover

Hall of Fame
for the record:

09 hammered by Jets in season opener 7-24
08 hammered by Steelers in season opener 17-38
07 pounded KC not exactly a heavyweight 20-3
06 hammered by Eagles in season opener 10-24
05 hammerd by Buffalo in season opener 7-22
04 miffed by Chargers in season opener 20-27
03 squeeked by Dolphins (who have never beaten the Texans) in opener 21-20
02 of course the all time landmark victory over the Cowboys in franchise opening game 19-10


so what, we open against the Colts? the Texans record vs. Colts is 1-14. fast forward game 2 against Washington, now have a real weapon @ QB in Donovan McNabb along with Texans former OC Kyle Shanahan plus Mike who taught Kubiak a thing or two about the same system in Washington coming off a big game against the Cowboys. Then we get the Cowboys, coming into Relient needing to win all without Brian Cushing? I just find it very difficult given this early slate to rationalize how the Texans can come out with a winning record, including the next game against Oakland. the scheduling is predicting more hard times, like it or not.

the positive is going to be in week five when the Texans get the Giants @ home along with their best defensive player. if they finish strong like expected look for them to win 7 or 8 games, if they can just split the first two than should give em a 10-6 season. this will be my pre-season predicition based off the strength of schedule & impact of Cushing four game suspension :roast:
 

thunderkyss

Just win baby!!!
Staff member
Contributor's Club
of course i would feel better about the texans chances if they were in the nfc west or afc west. That being said, i find it hard to be intimidated by opponents on the schedule considering that we are an ascending team and, after week one last season, i never saw this team over-matched. We have similar schedules to tennessee and indy. Simply put: We just need to win the division. Indy/tennessee/ and houston have essentially identical schedules, except that the texans don't have to play my pick for afc champions in 2010... Meanwhile, indy and tennessee both have to play that team twice!!:hurrah:
qft
 

thunderkyss

Just win baby!!!
Staff member
Contributor's Club
This should really be Gary's year. No excuses. He's had plenty of time to fill out the roster with his guys. Playoffs or get fired.



Considering the Texans have had one year of being .500 in the division this is going to be no small feat. I agree though if we can manage to go 3-3 or better we'll have a good shot at making the wildcard.
What's it going to take to win a wild card this season?

I can't bring myself to say something as stupid as we'll make the play-offs, or Gary is fired. We may go 12-4, or 11-5 and not make the play-offs.

If we go 10-6 (4-2 in division games) and we miss the play-offs because Baltimore has a better conference record than we do... why throw the baby out with the bath water?
 

Goldensilence

hipster elite
What's it going to take to win a wild card this season?

I can't bring myself to say something as stupid as we'll make the play-offs, or Gary is fired. We may go 12-4, or 11-5 and not make the play-offs.

If we go 10-6 (4-2 in division games) and we miss the play-offs because Baltimore has a better conference record than we do... why throw the baby out with the bath water?
It's highly unlikely we go 11-5 or better and miss the playoffs. I guess you'll point to the Patriots missing out a few seasons ago when they went 11-5. I think that's the one time in NFL history that has happened.

Far as what it's going to take to make the wildcard...I guess you have to break down where the possible division winners and who is likely to get wild card births.

As of this moment I have it looking like this:

Pats and Jets battling it out for the division with the loser getting wildcard #1. Dolphins can make things interesting and challenge for a wildcard as well.

Chargers winning the AFC West. Denver might challenge for a spot, but I just see an epic drop off coming without their best WR and not really having a replacement. Also have big QB questions going into TC.

AFC North is going to be interesting. Can Cinci repeat as division champs? How will Ben's suspension affect the first 4-6 games of the Steelers season? Is Boldin's acquisition the final piece of what could be a Super Bowl run for the Ravens? Personally I think so and the Ravens win the division. Steelers and Cinci will challenge for a WC spot.

I have the Colts winning the division again. I think the Texans have to prove they are mentally tough enough this season and be more physical upfront on offense. We'll challenge for a WC spot. I think the Titans will as well.

I think 10-6 should get us in. Texans will have chances to knock dents in other contender's bids. They need to take advantage of those opportunities.

Question becomes if we have another repeat 9-7 season where Gary has the team win the last 3-4 games to finish there after giving away games would you keep him?

If we finish 10-6, losing the last game of the season (and miss the playoffs in your scenario) on a questionable play call do you keep him?
 

badboy

Hall of Fame
for the record:

09 hammered by Jets in season opener 7-24
08 hammered by Steelers in season opener 17-38
07 pounded KC not exactly a heavyweight 20-3
06 hammered by Eagles in season opener 10-24
05 hammerd by Buffalo in season opener 7-22
04 miffed by Chargers in season opener 20-27
03 squeeked by Dolphins (who have never beaten the Texans) in opener 21-20
02 of course the all time landmark victory over the Cowboys in franchise opening game 19-10


so what, we open against the Colts? the Texans record vs. Colts is 1-14. fast forward game 2 against Washington, now have a real weapon @ QB in Donovan McNabb along with Texans former OC Kyle Shanahan plus Mike who taught Kubiak a thing or two about the same system in Washington coming off a big game against the Cowboys. Then we get the Cowboys, coming into Relient needing to win all without Brian Cushing? I just find it very difficult given this early slate to rationalize how the Texans can come out with a winning record, including the next game against Oakland. the scheduling is predicting more hard times, like it or not.

the positive is going to be in week five when the Texans get the Giants @ home along with their best defensive player. if they finish strong like expected look for them to win 7 or 8 games, if they can just split the first two than should give em a 10-6 season. this will be my pre-season predicition based off the strength of schedule & impact of Cushing four game suspension :roast:
I hear your concerns and agree with everything you say. IMO Kubes was responsible for the team not being ready against Jets last season. Bush has had a year to get team use to him and I think he is right man for the job. Offense should be ready despite changes and that is Gary's specialty. I expect a well played game even if we do not get a win. If the Texans play like game1, McNair should chew Kubiak's butt. We will only be intergrating one new player as a starter, Jackson. If Smith wins a starter spot, he is a vet and I have no concerns. Cush's replacement for game 1 may be an area of concern but we should be ok.

Added note. Slaton is penciled in to start on my roster.
 

beerlover

Hall of Fame
Question becomes if we have another repeat 9-7 season where Gary has the team win the last 3-4 games to finish there after giving away games would you keep him?
this is not about Kubiak, the players or anyone else giving away games, its about weighing in on a difficult schedule imposed on Texans along with suspension of Brian Cushing which the Texans must overcome to be successful, not internal (for a change) its external.

As a fan & for the players we all must look forward to the challenge. Being a Texan we like nothing better than to compete against the best, the national spotlight will be upon our team, how they respond & compete against the Colts, Redskins & Cowboys (before Cushing even steps on the field) will define this season, the future of Kubiak his staff & players alike.
 
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Goldensilence

hipster elite
this is not about Kubiak, the players or anyone else giving away games, its about weighing in on a difficult schedule imposed on Texans along with suspension of Brian Cushing which the Texans must overcome to be successful, internal (for a change) its external.

As a fan & for the players we all must look forward to the challenge. Being a Texan we like nothing better than to compete against the best, the national spotlight will be upon our team, how they respond & compete against the Colts, Redskins & Cowboys (before Cushing even steps on the field) will define this season, the future of Kubiak his staff & players alike.
Wait what? No this all IS totally about Gary Kubiak and his players. This is HIS roster. This is HIS staff.

Sure the schedule looks tough and it probably will be, but it's all on Gary to prepare his players as best as he can and up to him to make good in game decisions. It's up to the players as well individually to be in the best physical shape and prepare the best they can as well.

Sorry, I just can't buy how some people are already trying to divorce Gary's ability to shape a roster, call plays and have his guys ready to play, away from a tough schedule and Brian Cushing's absence.
 

beerlover

Hall of Fame
Wait what? No this all IS totally about Gary Kubiak and his players. This is HIS roster. This is HIS staff.

Sure the schedule looks tough and it probably will be, but it's all on Gary to prepare his players as best as he can and up to him to make good in game decisions. It's up to the players as well individually to be in the best physical shape and prepare the best they can as well.

Sorry, I just can't buy how some people are already trying to divorce Gary's ability to shape a roster, call plays and have his guys ready to play, away from a tough schedule and Brian Cushing's absence.
suggest you find another thread then to trash Kubiak, this is not about him its about the Texans 2010 schedule. don't see how you got all confused over that one but oh well :bubbles:
 

Goldensilence

hipster elite
suggest you find another thread then to trash Kubiak, this is not about him its about the Texans 2010 schedule. don't see how you got all confused over that one but oh well :bubbles:
Right because Gary Kubiak as the Texans HEAD COACH has nothing to do with the 2010 schedule?

Pardon me for thinking maybe he's supposed to be there on game day.

So Brian Cushing absence on the first four games of the season can be weighed in as factor that makes this tough schedule even tougher, but we can't talk about the head coach? :mcnugget:

Dude read my posts. I'm not "trashing" Gary. I'm asking him to do his job and do it well. Like I'm the only one in this thread that has asked for that.
 

ChampionTexan

Hall of Fame
for the record:

09 hammered by Jets in season opener 7-24
08 hammered by Steelers in season opener 17-38
07 pounded KC not exactly a heavyweight 20-3
06 hammered by Eagles in season opener 10-24
05 hammerd by Buffalo in season opener 7-22
04 miffed by Chargers in season opener 20-27
03 squeeked by Dolphins (who have never beaten the Texans) in opener 21-20
02 of course the all time landmark victory over the Cowboys in franchise opening game 19-10


so what, we open against the Colts? the Texans record vs. Colts is 1-14. fast forward game 2 against Washington, now have a real weapon @ QB in Donovan McNabb along with Texans former OC Kyle Shanahan plus Mike who taught Kubiak a thing or two about the same system in Washington coming off a big game against the Cowboys. Then we get the Cowboys, coming into Relient needing to win all without Brian Cushing? I just find it very difficult given this early slate to rationalize how the Texans can come out with a winning record, including the next game against Oakland. the scheduling is predicting more hard times, like it or not.

the positive is going to be in week five when the Texans get the Giants @ home along with their best defensive player. if they finish strong like expected look for them to win 7 or 8 games, if they can just split the first two than should give em a 10-6 season. this will be my pre-season predicition based off the strength of schedule & impact of Cushing four game suspension :roast:
One thing that is different (whether it matters or not remains to be seen) is that our week one opponent is a team we are extremely familiar with. Kubiak has prepared for them 8 times as a HC - and even if you throw in the change at HC for the Colts (which has far less impact than most HC changes), he's prepared for them twice. Obviously, the record has been dismal, but I don't believe most of us think we were unprepared in the recent matchups. Yeah, it works both ways, and my point isn't that this gives us any sort of advantage. My point is that if you believe the coaching staff has been caught unaware from a strategy standpoint on opening weekend in years past, that should not be a reason/excuse/criticism this year. If you think they've not been properly motivated in openers past, maybe a divisional opponent will change that.

As far as the second game goes - again, it's not necessarily a good indicator of future outcomes, but the only time Kubiak has squared off against his former boss, he won pretty easily, and IMO, that was with a Texans team that wasn't as talented as the '10 version should be (Even sans Cushing), and against a Broncos team that was more talented than I believe the '10 Redskins will be.

In regard to Cushing's suspension, I've said before that we should be able to beat the Redskins and Raiders with or without Cushing. And yeah, it's possible that Cushing's suspension could cost us a win vs. Indy and/or Dallas, but given that neither of those games were going to be anything close to easy even with Cushing, we'll never really know what sort of impact Cushing's absence had on our record (unless we go 4-0 to start the season, in which case we'll know it had zero impact).

I see this as a team on the rise - maybe not as fast as most would like, but consistently, and steadily. If that trend doesn't continue in 2010, I'm not going to blame it on the schedule, I'm not going to blame it on a 4 game suspension for one guy, I'm not going to blame it on any injuries that may or may not occur over the course of the season. To quote a tired old cliche you play the hand your dealt. If the trend doesn't continue, or reverses, I will look at no outside/uncontrollable forces as the reason.
 

El Tejano

Hall of Fame
As for the whole bashing Kubiak thing, I don't think it's bashing Kubiak to say he needs to do a better job of coaching. A)It's true B) It's true for every game we play from here on out C) His getting the team prepared to play is going to be VERY crucial considering our teams circumstances of available players to qualifying for the playoffs. D) We lost to Indy last year because of when he elected to let the clock run down to the two minute warning when Moats fumbled. That's an example that if we got better in game decisions made, we have a better chance of winning.

Again, that' not bashing him. That's saying he's got to do his part and he along with everyone has to be on their A game. If we come out on the first day and look like we did against NYJ last year, then it will "be on him" and we don't want that again.
 

Ole Miss Texan

Hall of Fame
We can theoretically discuss Kubiak's abilities/inabilities as a Head Coach, Smith's ability as a GM, the Scheme this staff has implemented, player development and player skillsets, scouting, free agents, McNair being cheap, past failures and place blame on each an every one of them in every single thread on here. Football and all its aspects are so intricately weaved that each aspect of the team DIRECTLY effects all the others.

Secondary isn't up to snuff? Let's blame McNair for being cheap and not spending $12MM on an average CB or Kubiak for not getting a better secondary coach or the Defensive Line not getting enough pressure on the QB which exposes the secondary or our RB's for not establishing a running game that prolongs drives and eats up clock while our defense/secondary can rest or our Offensive Line for not being able to run block worth a damn and not opening any holes for the RBs or the Scouting department for not being able to scout players as well or find gems on the 2nd day that come in and become all pros in the 1st or 2nd season.

That stuff is all debatable on a higher level. Cushing gone the first 4 games is FACT. Certain players missing during the time due to injury is a FACT. Our schedule is FACT - set in stone.
 

b0ng

Bad Hombre
One thing that SoS doesn't take into account is changes the other 14 teams you play have gone through during the off-season. Marshall gone from the donkeys, Philly/Washington, no more fatty Russell, etc etc. It's just so silly to say "Oh this sched is too tough we are going 4-12!" Based on last seasons records.
 

infantrycak

Hall of Fame
One thing that SoS doesn't take into account is changes the other 14 teams you play have gone through during the off-season. Marshall gone from the donkeys, Philly/Washington, no more fatty Russell, etc etc. It's just so silly to say "Oh this sched is too tough we are going 4-12!" Based on last seasons records.
Yup. How is Shanahan going to use McNabb? It looks like he's trying to get every vet RB to throw at opposing teams possible whereas Reid essentially ignored running for a decade. How is the transition to a 3-4 going to go, particularly with a pissed off NT fighting off a paternity suit? Is Kolb going to step smoothly in for McNabb (and who the heck is their #1 RB) or is Reid going to start mixing in more Vick since they are paying so much for that little experiment?
 

badboy

Hall of Fame
I think everyone needs to read the thread again. Beerlover wanted to talk about the schedule and we should stick to that. Several things effect the record. Injuries, rookies, FAs, coaches, owner, strength and conditioning, etc. This thread is about the schedule.
 

Goldensilence

hipster elite
I think everyone needs to read the thread again. Beerlover wanted to talk about the schedule and we should stick to that. Several things effect the record. Injuries, rookies, FAs, coaches, owner, strength and conditioning, etc. This thread is about the schedule.
JMO but, I think all the things you listed go hand in hand with the schedule.

Perhaps I should've clarified my stance. I don't know fully what other teams on our schedule are going to look like at this point in the off-season. As it progresses I think I'll get a better idea of what to expect from our first 4 games without Cushing and beyond.

In lieu of all of that, the bottom line is Gary's got to have HIS guys ready to go no matter who is healthy, not suspended, or any off the field issues surrounding the team.
 

beerlover

Hall of Fame
I think everyone needs to read the thread again. Beerlover wanted to talk about the schedule and we should stick to that. Several things effect the record. Injuries, rookies, FAs, coaches, owner, strength and conditioning, etc. This thread is about the schedule.
excatly.

as is often the case everyone has their own agenda & thats fine. coaching has been a huge issue, no doubt about that but doesn't it seem like its being systematicly upgraded & improved? yes Kubiak has made mistakes & yes he's paid for them but its also part of a franchises growth.

internally discussing Texans I feel we as fans have just as good of understanding if not better than the national media. the reason I posted Eric Edholm article is it represents an outside national media perspective in regards to rest of the league. Mike Wilkening another Pro Football Weekly columnist already states that Vegas gives the edge to a Cowboys vs. Colts Superbowl, teams Texans open the year with.

I realize every team have their hurdles to vault over including the Super Bowl Champion New Orleans Saints http://www.profootballweekly.com/2010/04/20/2010-schedule-wont-thrill-saints but on paper even they do not compare to the Texans strength of schedule, well at least the Tacks are up there with us -

2010 Strength Of Schedule




Winning % Opp............. Total Wins Opp ......... Total Losses
Titans 0.547................ 140.......................... 116
Texans 0.547............... 140.......................... 116
Cowboys 0.543............. 139.......................... 117
Bengals 0.539............... 138.......................... 118
Jaguars 0.535............... 137.......................... 119
Patriots 0.531............... 136.......................... 120
Giants 0.527................. 135.......................... 121
Redskins 0.523.............. 134.......................... 122
Eagles 0.520................. 133.......................... 123
Browns 0.516................ 132.......................... 124
Colts 0.516................... 132.......................... 124
 

Goldensilence

hipster elite
excatly.

as is often the case everyone has their own agenda & thats fine. coaching has been a huge issue, no doubt about that but doesn't it seem like its being systematicly upgraded & improved? yes Kubiak has made mistakes & yes he's paid for them but its also part of a franchises growth.

internally discussing Texans I feel we as fans have just as good of understanding if not better than the national media. the reason I posted Eric Edholm article is it represents an outside national media perspective in regards to rest of the league. Mike Wilkening another Pro Football Weekly columnist already states that Vegas gives the edge to a Cowboys vs. Colts Superbowl, teams Texans open the year with.

I realize every team have their hurdles to vault over including the Super Bowl Champion New Orleans Saints http://www.profootballweekly.com/2010/04/20/2010-schedule-wont-thrill-saints but on paper even they do not compare to the Texans strength of schedule, well at least the Tacks are up there with us -
Perhaps I am a bit confused here. I mean what are we supposed to do? Talk about the schedule at face value?

Yes, at face value it's tied for the toughest schedule in the league this year. For the most part we play our hardest non-divisional games at home. At face value that's pretty much about all you can say really.

Now if you want the meat of a conversation you're going to have to get into other team's off-season acquisitions, injuries, coaching changes, players who retired, got released, or whatever. Obviously as well we don't know how this team or any other team yet is going to shape up so we have to base guesses or speculation to how a team will perform based on the prior year. All those things badboy listed are intimately tied with a team's schedule.

That as much goes for other teams as well as our own. I think even with last year's weak schedule it proved we have acquired enough talent to compete with just about anyone league wide. However, I think you'd be putting your head in the sand if you can't admit the coaching staff made some costly in game errors and some bad roster decisions.

Just because you're tired of hearing about the same questions or don't like the answers you're getting doesn't mean people have an agenda.
 

Meloy

Veteran
JMO but, I think all the things you listed go hand in hand with the schedule.
Perhaps I should've clarified my stance. I don't know fully what other teams on our schedule are going to look like at this point in the off-season. As it progresses I think I'll get a better idea of what to expect from our first 4 games without Cushing and beyond.

In lieu of all of that, the bottom line is Gary's got to have HIS guys ready to go no matter who is healthy, not suspended, or any off the field issues surrounding the team.
Absolutely not GS. I understand what you are saying but that is not the topic of the thread. We could say if zero fans showed up it could effect outcome of the game but again not the topic.
 

Meloy

Veteran
Perhaps I am a bit confused here. I mean what are we supposed to do? Talk about the schedule at face value?

Yes, at face value it's tied for the toughest schedule in the league this year. For the most part we play our hardest non-divisional games at home. At face value that's pretty much about all you can say really.

Now if you want the meat of a conversation you're going to have to get into other team's off-season acquisitions, injuries, coaching changes, players who retired, got released, or whatever. Obviously as well we don't know how this team or any other team yet is going to shape up so we have to base guesses or speculation to how a team will perform based on the prior year. All those things badboy listed are intimately tied with a team's schedule.

That as much goes for other teams as well as our own. I think even with last year's weak schedule it proved we have acquired enough talent to compete with just about anyone league wide. However, I think you'd be putting your head in the sand if you can't admit the coaching staff made some costly in game errors and some bad roster decisions.

Just because you're tired of hearing about the same questions or don't like the answers you're getting doesn't mean people have an agenda.
Using your thery we can't talk about any player for the entire year because no way we know if he will be hurt or end up in dog house like Bennett. Most of us realize that injuries, etc can happen but Beerlover wanted to talk about the schedule as we know it as if all starters will play. Like mocks, some think it is ridiculous to do what I do. Ok, stay out of my mock. No disrespect meant to you but think about it.
 

Goldensilence

hipster elite
Using your thery we can't talk about any player for the entire year because no way we know if he will be hurt or end up in dog house like Bennett. Most of us realize that injuries, etc can happen but Beerlover wanted to talk about the schedule as we know it as if all starters will play. Like mocks, some think it is ridiculous to do what I do. Ok, stay out of my mock. No disrespect meant to you but think about it.
Ok so my questions is what is there to talk about the schedule ITSELF other than well umm we play 16 games. The bye week comes at a good time. It's cool that we got a few prime times games. The Thursday than Monday night game gives us extra practice time.

I think you misunderstood me. When I said I don't know how teams are going to shape up, it is a growing process over the off-season as I get more information I'll get a better guess how things will effect teams we play. For example I'm curious to see how having possibly Jason Campbell as the starter in Oakland changes the dynamic of it as opposed to Frye.

My point has been if we're sticking strictly to talk of the schedule as opposed to players or coaches who will affect the schedule we're pretty limited to my first paragraph.
 

junior

Waterboy
our playoff chances comes down to one thing, Matt Schaub.

He had a great season but the one thing we have not done with him is win in division, he is an awful 2-11 as a starter and 2-9 in games he started and finished, even the old #8 thinks that sucks, I am not saying they are all his fault but for whatever reason he hasnt won in division play.

Look even deeper into division games under Kubiak we are 7-17

QB's starting divisions games under Kubiak

The old #8 3-3
Rosenfels 2-3
Schaub 2-11

These are just numbers and dont tell the whole story but Schaub has never beaten the Colts or Jags.
 

thunderkyss

Just win baby!!!
Staff member
Contributor's Club
I put this together, to take a closer look at the 2010 SoS. IMHO, it makes the case for those who say our schedule is going to kill us.


We have 7 games against teams who had a tougher schedule than we did in 2009, yet still improved their win percentage (over their 2008 win %). That includes the Jaguars.

Four games will be against teams that had a tougher schedule than we did in 2009, that finished better than we did. I don't like that. 2 games against the Colts, vs the Cowboys, vs the Eagles. One game, will be against the Jets, who finished as well as we did, yet had a tougher schedule.

We have three games against teams who had a stronger schedule in 2009, whose win percentage got worse vs their 2008 %. Giants, and the Titans (x2).

Raiders and Broncos pretty much went sideways, and they had easier schedules.

The Chargers kicked ass, with a slightly easier schedule than ours.

The most interesting opponent, I think, are the Ravens. They finished same as we did, but their schedule was much easier.
 

thunderkyss

Just win baby!!!
Staff member
Contributor's Club
Are there any mathmeticians out there who would know how to give the 2009 SoS and the 2009 results the proper weight so we can compare these numbers on a more apples to apples comparison?
 

thunderkyss

Just win baby!!!
Staff member
Contributor's Club
Here is another one, I know a lot of people won't like. This one shows our team, and a couple of others, with their 2009 regular season schedule, and the 2009 W/L% for 2009... It would be the actual W/L percentage for the year they played.


Using this method, it would appear our schedule was actually tougher than we thought, going into the year, the Colts, the Saints, and the Cowboys schedule would appear easier. I don't know if that is true, but a case can be made.

At the very least, I think it does show that teams change from year to year, and it's difficult to base next year predictions on last years schedule. I understand we gotta do something... I'm just saying. The Giants, Eagles, and Titans may implode in 2010 for all we know.
 
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thunderkyss

Just win baby!!!
Staff member
Contributor's Club
If you are wondering what the colors mean, when I first made the spreadsheet, I highlighted the Texans in Yellow. Teams below the yellow line had an easier schedule, teams above the yellow had a tougher schedule than the Texans (based on 2008 results).

The blue meant the team had a better W/L % after 2009, than they did after 2008, with easier schedules than the Texans. Maybe they got better. The team with red or pinkish color got worse. Look at how many pink squares are on the Saints schedule. Was that because they played the Saints?

The green shows teams that got better, even though they had a tougher schedule than we did. The heavy green are teams that "improved," had a tougher schedule, and finished better than we did.

The teams that finished better than we did, with schedules tougher than ours, were the Patriots, Falcons, Jets, Saints, Eagles, Cowboys, & Colts. 3 AFC teams, 4 NFC teams.

The teams that finished with a better record, and had an easier schedule (using 2008 W/L%) Chargers, Bengals, Cardinals, Packers, Vikings.

The Chargers and the Colts are the only teams within 15 points of our SoS, that did exceptionally well in 2009. I believe that is what many people expected us to do... but we obviously aren't there yet.
 

badboy

Hall of Fame
I think in building a team, as far as schedule goes, you know you play against teams in your division twice each year and of course that is the focus. Then as you play different teams you go with your coach's philosophy of offense (ZBS, Power, two TEs, whatever) and same with defense. Your offense should be able to score on any team & defense stop any team. A player slipping, missing a block, fumbling or a QB throwing just out of reach is football and causes all of us heartburn. We just have to get the best players we can at each position with good back up. The week before the game is when tweaking for the opponent occurs. It is then a chess match. I do not pay much attention to the schedule and have a difficult time with pre-season predictions. Eric Winston said last season when questioned about effectiveness of ZBS in Red Zone "if we (each player) do what we are supposed to, the play will work."
 

beerlover

Hall of Fame
I put this together, to take a closer look at the 2010 SoS. IMHO, it makes the case for those who say our schedule is going to kill us.


We have 7 games against teams who had a tougher schedule than we did in 2009, yet still improved their win percentage (over their 2008 win %). That includes the Jaguars.

Four games will be against teams that had a tougher schedule than we did in 2009, that finished better than we did. I don't like that. 2 games against the Colts, vs the Cowboys, vs the Eagles. One game, will be against the Jets, who finished as well as we did, yet had a tougher schedule.

We have three games against teams who had a stronger schedule in 2009, whose win percentage got worse vs their 2008 %. Giants, and the Titans (x2).

Raiders and Broncos pretty much went sideways, and they had easier schedules.

The Chargers kicked ass, with a slightly easier schedule than ours.

The most interesting opponent, I think, are the Ravens. They finished same as we did, but their schedule was much easier.
excellent stuff, thanks.

if there is one thing I'm not thats a mathmetician but this would indicate last season our opponnets winning % was 0.497% but based off last years records of teams the Texans will face in 2010 its more like 0.547%. which only tells the story based off last years data but does show an upward rising trend.

Colts will be the Colts, don't really see them changning much up or down they are the epitome of stablility.
Redskins are a differernt story, with revamped coaching staff, help in draft & a new franchise QB I would expect them to at least double their total wins frorm a year ago from 4-12 to 8-8 would improve winning percentage to 0.562% so wash out the rest & the schedule is actually harder than projected.

Bottom line as we move closer & closer to season opener I would just hope people be a little more realistic with expectations, I know its been frustrating & taken seemingly far too long to make the playoffs, but just a simple thing like a tougher schedule can make all the difference (completly out of the Texans control). So now all they can do is prepare, make adjustments & be who they & we as fans hope them to be...a playoff contender :logo:
 

thunderkyss

Just win baby!!!
Staff member
Contributor's Club
Colts will be the Colts, don't really see them changning much up or down they are the epitome of stablility.
& Pats will be Pats. They'll win 10 games every year. I hope the Texans will be there one day. I feel the team is good enough, but to do that year in, and year out, the coach has to be there too. I think our coach can do that, I think that is what he's building, but we'll have to wait and see.
Bottom line as we move closer & closer to season opener I would just hope people be a little more realistic with expectations

:logo:
So.... what would be realistic? Our expectations for this team are a little higher than others. Ravens, Dolphins, and NYJets are considered better teams than ours, by our own fans. They faced tougher schedules, finished 9-7.... and everything is great. That won't be allowed for this franchise... no excuses.
 

beerlover

Hall of Fame
& Pats will be Pats. They'll win 10 games every year. I hope the Texans will be there one day. I feel the team is good enough, but to do that year in, and year out, the coach has to be there too. I think our coach can do that, I think that is what he's building, but we'll have to wait and see.


So.... what would be realistic? Our expectations for this team are a little higher than others. Ravens, Dolphins, and NYJets are considered better teams than ours, by our own fans. They faced tougher schedules, finished 9-7.... and everything is great. That won't be allowed for this franchise... no excuses.
I beleive 10-6 is both realistic & attainable even with one of the most difficult schedules, I expect the Texans to be much improved despite only a one game increase in wins.
 

thunderkyss

Just win baby!!!
Staff member
Contributor's Club
I beleive 10-6 is both realistic & attainable even with one of the most difficult schedules, I expect the Texans to be much improved despite only a one game increase in wins.
It's not just 1 game though... we're playing most of the better teams in the league next year.
 

beerlover

Hall of Fame
It's not just 1 game though... we're playing most of the better teams in the league next year.
I love the fact the Texans are playing premier NFL name brands instead of past seasons non divisional foes scheduled. Not only do I expect the Texans to compete they must compete there is no other option, even with one hand (Cushing) tied behind their back. While the season is still some time off its hard not to look @ the docket of match-ups facing Texans.

Would y'all be happy with 10-6 factoring in the NFL toughest schedule?

Would y'all be happy if the Texans (regardless of record) just made the playoffs?

Would y'all be happy if the Texans won the division but lost against the wildcard winner?

Or does Kubiak & Texans have to do more?
 
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