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Potential reasons for not drafting a FS

gtexan02

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For the last 3 years, Ive been harping on the importance of good safety play to NFL teams.

My points have centered around the following:

1. More sacks does not lead to more turnovers. Good defensive back play leads to more turnovers. Ive shown this statistically.

2. The most successful teams of the past few seasons have had stellar safety play. Winning and safety play correlates.


This year came and went, and again, no impact FS was drafted. At first I was upset, and then I realized why it had happened. Here are a few of my hypotheses:

1. Our biggest need this offseason was CB. We play a very difficult scheudle this season with a lot of pass happy teams. Starting a rookie CB along side a rookie FS is a recipe for disaster. You can get away with starting a rookie CB against teams like Indy if you use a veteran safety over the top as an insurance policy.

2. Eugene Wilson is coming along a lot better than we believe. If he played up to 100% of his ability, safety isn't such a glaring need for us. Maybe he's a lot healthier than we think.

3. The coaching staff has reason to be confident in development of Nolan, Barber, etc. Weve had good luck with 7th round picks in the past, so its not unprecedented that Nolan could have made progress and be in the works.

4. One of our current CBs is looking to switch to safety. Molden is 6-1 200+ pounds, and would make the best fit. Maybe its him.

5. The safeties we wanted in each round were chosen before us.
I wanted Earl Thomas in the 1st. He went at 14
In the second, I wanted Taylor Mays. He went 2 spots before us.
I like Major Wright in the 3rd, and he went right before us.
I have no explanation for Reshad Jones, who I also liked. He was there for us in the 5th, and we passed on him. We chose McMannis instead, who I had never heard of. Jones was supposed to go earlier, so maybe there was an issue there we didn't know about


Anyway, just some food for thought. The Texans may have been targeting a safety all along, but had them picked out from under them. Not willing to trade up 5-10 spots to secure the picks, they may just have not had any available. Better not to choose one who isnt oging to make a difference than reach for a project player just to draft a need
 
For the last 3 years, Ive been harping on the importance of good safety play to NFL teams.

My points have centered around the following:

1. More sacks does not lead to more turnovers. Good defensive back play leads to more turnovers. Ive shown this statistically.

2. The most successful teams of the past few seasons have had stellar safety play. Winning and safety play correlates.


This year came and went, and again, no impact FS was drafted. At first I was upset, and then I realized why it had happened. Here are a few of my hypotheses:

1. Our biggest need this offseason was CB. We play a very difficult scheudle this season with a lot of pass happy teams. Starting a rookie CB along side a rookie FS is a recipe for disaster. You can get away with starting a rookie CB against teams like Indy if you use a veteran safety over the top as an insurance policy.

2. Eugene Wilson is coming along a lot better than we believe. If he played up to 100% of his ability, safety isn't such a glaring need for us. Maybe he's a lot healthier than we think.


3. The coaching staff has reason to be confident in development of Nolan, Barber, etc. Weve had good luck with 7th round picks in the past, so its not unprecedented that Nolan could have made progress and be in the works.

4. One of our current CBs is looking to switch to safety. Molden is 6-1 200+ pounds, and would make the best fit. Maybe its him.

5. The safeties we wanted in each round were chosen before us.
I wanted Earl Thomas in the 1st. He went at 14
In the second, I wanted Taylor Mays. He went 2 spots before us.
I like Major Wright in the 3rd, and he went right before us.
I have no explanation for Reshad Jones, who I also liked. He was there for us in the 5th, and we passed on him. We chose McMannis instead, who I had never heard of. Jones was supposed to go earlier, so maybe there was an issue there we didn't know about


Anyway, just some food for thought. The Texans may have been targeting a safety all along, but had them picked out from under them. Not willing to trade up 5-10 spots to secure the picks, they may just have not had any available. Better not to choose one who isnt oging to make a difference than reach for a project player just to draft a need

First bolded statement. I think Wilson is a pitfall. I keep hearing if he can stay healthy, he hasn't been able to in several years now.

Second bolded part. Not sure how they can be confident in Nolan. He was injured and saw no real meaningful time last year. We've done good at other positions later in the draft but terrible with safety. Don't see that changing.

Third bolded statement. Totally agree. I think that despite what Kubiak is saying one of the CBs on this team are going to likely be looked at to ask to try and move over. Molden physically fits the part and is likely in danger of being cut. Bennett might be asked as well as a last ditch effort.
 
With the overcrowded CB position I have to believe that at least one of them will move to FS, and Molden is the most likely IMO. They also picked up 2 Safeties after the draft (UDFA), Nick Polk and Aaron Webster. I don't expect either to be players right away, but they could be developed on the PS.
 
It appears that the Texans 1) just ran out of draft picks and 2) are not in as bad a shape at this position as some people seem to think.

If all goes well, the Texans may finally be in a position of taking a FS early in next years draft. If one of the guys on their roster (probably Wilson or Barber) has not already solidified himself into the position, that is.
 
Well I thought Molden was going to be moved to FS whenever we drafted him and didn't we also draft Quin to play FS? He played well at CB last year so maybe he'll stay there, but I think at least one of our CB's will get looks at FS during camp.
 
rmartin65 & badboy discussed this with me early on so I will give you the same reasoning I gave them. the Texans like Dominique Barber along with Eugene Wilson that's a solid 1-2 (assuming both are healthy). If not by drafting a CB in the first round (gotta believe Kareem will earn the starting position in pre-season) Glover Quinn can easily bump down inside. he has the physcial presence, good in coverage & sound tackle technique in run support needed, so that's three deep, not to mention the rest here already.
 
Since we're listing potential reasons, I'm going to go ahead and throw out stupid. I mean, it's possible, right?

:stirpot:
 
It appears that the Texans 1) just ran out of draft picks and 2) are not in as bad a shape at this position as some people seem to think.

The Texans didn't think they were in bad shape at ss last year until opposing running backs kept breaking off long td runs on us in preseason and the begining of the regular season. The Texans just got flat out lucky last year getting Pollard. Can you imagine the season they would have had without him? My point is the Texans were planning on playing the 2009 season with the crap they had at ss.

Eugene Wilson has missed so much football in the last 3 years that he just can't be counted on to complete a season. He is a bandaid at this point in his career. It baffles me why fs has been the arm pit of the defense going on 9 years. A really good fs can change games and it would go a long way to helping us finally break the stranglehold the colts have on the Texans and the division.
 
The Texans didn't think they were in bad shape at ss last year until opposing running backs kept breaking off long td runs on us in preseason and the begining of the regular season. The Texans just got flat out lucky last year getting Pollard. Can you imagine the season they would have had without him? My point is the Texans were planning on playing the 2009 season with the crap they had at ss.

Eugene Wilson has missed so much football in the last 3 years that he just can't be counted on to complete a season. He is a bandaid at this point in his career. It baffles me why fs has been the arm pit of the defense going on 9 years. A really good fs can change games and it would go a long way to helping us finally break the stranglehold the colts have on the Texans and the division.

See, the interesting part about this is that the coaches profess to be comfortable with the situation at FS. They profess to be comfortable with the interior OL, despite the injuries that have befallen the team there. But get an injured TE or two and they stockpile the roster, citing concerns about injury.
 
The Texans didn't think they were in bad shape at ss last year until opposing running backs kept breaking off long td runs on us in preseason and the begining of the regular season. The Texans just got flat out lucky last year getting Pollard. Can you imagine the season they would have had without him? My point is the Texans were planning on playing the 2009 season with the crap they had at ss.

Eugene Wilson has missed so much football in the last 3 years that he just can't be counted on to complete a season. He is a bandaid at this point in his career. It baffles me why fs has been the arm pit of the defense going on 9 years. A really good fs can change games and it would go a long way to helping us finally break the stranglehold the colts have on the Texans and the division.

My issue with this argumet is, where are the front seven? It's not a good thing when you have to rely on safeties making tackles. That said, it's nice to know they can, but if you are relying on them for that, there are much bigger issues.
 
My issue with this argumet is, where are the front seven? It's not a good thing when you have to rely on safeties making tackles. That said, it's nice to know they can, but if you are relying on them for that, there are much bigger issues.

I agree with what you are saying. But there are always going to be times when a rb breaks through and those are the times when no matter who the Texans had back there they were caught out of position. Now when Pollard came along he starting knocking the piss outta some running backs.
 
I'm glad the Texans did not force the issue just to address the FS position. Darrell Stuckey in the 4th was the only one I was really interested in who was available when the Texans took Sharpton. I guess the value in Sharpton is his versatility, he is an everydown LB, a special teams leader & a physical downhill defensive playmaker. Stuckey selected 10 picks later (San Diego) was a much higher rated prospect in most books, would have fit right into Bushes scheme as well. But he's about it, without giving up some of the other picks or reaching too early for a Nate Allen or Morgan Burnett, of course would have had to trade up like San Diego did for Mathews to get Earl Thomas.
 
One thing with Eugene Wilson is he's a smart safety. I put a high value on that when facing Manning and other great quarterbacks. Do you know how bad Manning would tear apart one of those mid to late round safetys?
 
One thing with Eugene Wilson is he's a smart safety. I put a high value on that when facing Manning and other great quarterbacks. Do you know how bad Manning would tear apart one of those mid to late round safetys?

In their rookie season? Or after they've had a couple years to learn the ropes behind Wilson?

One other thing that disturbs me about the Texans is that they never develop secondary players. Going back to Glenn Earl and CC Brown, and including the new regime's picks of Harrison and Barber. The CBs don't get any better here, either. Reeves didn't even hold down a starter's position last season most of the year, and Bennett busted out after his rookie year. So Quin is the latest rookie success story, but will he get any better?
 
I watched the draft special on Sunday night on Ch 13, where Bob Allen talked about the draft with Smith and Kubiak and Allen brought up the fact that some people were questioning why they had not picked any safeties and their reply was that they were satisfied with the safeties they already had and did not see it as an area of need.
 
I've said it about 300 times already but...since there is a thread about it....

I don't know how FS or FS depth is not a top 9 area of need on THIS team. Especially after CB, RB and DT get addressed.....damn I'd love to see a 4th spent on the back end.
 
I've said it about 300 times already but...since there is a thread about it....

I don't know how FS or FS depth is not a top 9 area of need on THIS team. Especially after CB, RB and DT get addressed.....damn I'd love to see a 4th spent on the back end.

Just because they didn't draft a guy with a 4th or later pick doesn't mean they don't see it as a need. It may mean they felt they could get a comparable talent as an UDFA.

I also agree that we've done a poor job of developing DBs... hopefully, that will change since we've picked up David Gibbs. He's only had a year to work. We've given him Brandon Harris (2007), Dominique Barber (2008) and Troy Nolan (2009).

I don't know if it's true, but did we take Aaron Webster from Cincinnati as an UDFA? and Nick Polk from Indiana?

Polk has the solid build of a strong safety, but the speed and athleticism to play a centerfielder role in the NFL. He has the distinction of being one of the few players in recent memory to be a regular starter at a skill position on both sides of the ball during his career.

As a redshirt freshman, Polk started nine games at wideout, catching 33 balls for 335 yards and a score. The following spring, however, coaches decided to use his physicality on defense, and he wound up starting every game at free safety (74 tackles, 2.5 for loss, two interceptions, five pass break-ups).

Knee injuries, including a season-ending torn ACL, limited him to seven starts in eight games as a junior (52 tackles, interception, two forced fumbles). He then started all but one game (concussion) in 2009, fighting through lingering shoulder and ankle injuries, making 53 tackles, intercepting two passes and breaking up four others.

Injuries have stunted Polk's growth as a player the past couple of seasons, and his inconsistent tackling is worrisome. His athleticism and upside, however, will have scouts pushing for their team to select him sometime on Saturday, the last day of the 2010 draft.
 
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In their rookie season? Or after they've had a couple years to learn the ropes behind Wilson?

One other thing that disturbs me about the Texans is that they never develop secondary players. Going back to Glenn Earl and CC Brown, and including the new regime's picks of Harrison and Barber. The CBs don't get any better here, either. Reeves didn't even hold down a starter's position last season most of the year, and Bennett busted out after his rookie year. So Quin is the latest rookie success story, but will he get any better?

We have just completed the first year under a new DB coach. Let's see how they develop now.
 
The Texans didn't think they were in bad shape at ss last year until opposing running backs kept breaking off long td runs on us in preseason and the begining of the regular season. The Texans just got flat out lucky last year getting Pollard. Can you imagine the season they would have had without him? My point is the Texans were planning on playing the 2009 season with the crap they had at ss.

Eugene Wilson has missed so much football in the last 3 years that he just can't be counted on to complete a season. He is a bandaid at this point in his career. It baffles me why fs has been the arm pit of the defense going on 9 years. A really good fs can change games and it would go a long way to helping us finally break the stranglehold the colts have on the Texans and the division.

I think that was due to SS play as well as WLB play....

Adibi was not getting it done when he was originally given the starting nod...Zach Diles was a part of the cure as well...
 
For the last 3 years, Ive been harping on the importance of good safety play to NFL teams.

My points have centered around the following:

1. More sacks does not lead to more turnovers. Good defensive back play leads to more turnovers. Ive shown this statistically.

2. The most successful teams of the past few seasons have had stellar safety play. Winning and safety play correlates.


This year came and went, and again, no impact FS was drafted. At first I was upset, and then I realized why it had happened. Here are a few of my hypotheses:

1. Our biggest need this offseason was CB. We play a very difficult scheudle this season with a lot of pass happy teams. Starting a rookie CB along side a rookie FS is a recipe for disaster. You can get away with starting a rookie CB against teams like Indy if you use a veteran safety over the top as an insurance policy.
who is Darren Sharper
 
Just because they didn't draft a guy with a 4th or later pick doesn't mean they don't see it as a need. It may mean they felt they could get a comparable talent as an UDFA.
Dude, come on. The evidence is there. They don't draft them or they'll get a 6th or 7th round guy. They sign vets as stopgaps and lucked out picking up Pollard because of the Gibbs/Chiefs ties.
 
I'm glad the Texans did not force the issue just to address the FS position. Darrell Stuckey in the 4th was the only one I was really interested in who was available when the Texans took Sharpton. I guess the value in Sharpton is his versatility, he is an everydown LB, a special teams leader & a physical downhill defensive playmaker. Stuckey selected 10 picks later (San Diego) was a much higher rated prospect in most books, would have fit right into Bushes scheme as well. But he's about it, without giving up some of the other picks or reaching too early for a Nate Allen or Morgan Burnett, of course would have had to trade up like San Diego did for Mathews to get Earl Thomas.
We could have gotten Sharpton with our first in the 4th and my guys Owusu-Ansah(second 4th) and Robert Johnson (5th) would have looked pretty good to me.
 
Let's face it guys. This regime just doesn't care about the position just like the previous regime thought a Tight End was what happened when someone cute bent over. OTOH, this regime loves TE's like they were candy at a kids party, while totally ignoring Safety.

As already pointed out, they lucked into Pollard who is a plus player but not all world. Wilson is servicable/decent with good range when healthy which happens about as often as me going to Tahiti. Both guys were scrap heap players who were waived from other teams, and both were lucked into more than some great plan. Behind the two starters they have the equivelent of 5 day old bread - moldy, smelly and something you want to throw away at the sight of it. Is THAT a great plan for a team wanting to make the playoffs I ask? If one of these guys goes down for any length of team, Barber and his merry band of clueless losers masquerading as legit NFL backups gets to have the teams fate in thier hands. Oh joy.

Their plan for safety's appears to be other teams sloppy seconds. Way to go Smithiak. :cool:
 
There are some potential 1st round FS that I like in the upcoming draft...

he says, running from the thread
 
One thing with Eugene Wilson is he's a smart safety. I put a high value on that when facing Manning and other great quarterbacks. Do you know how bad Manning would tear apart one of those mid to late round safetys?

Smart? I can't vouch for that, but I can vouch that the guy can't stay healthy.

I would say I can't believe they're relying on Wilson to stay healthy this year, but that would be a lie.

As far as tearing apart late round safeties.... do we know how bad? Um well seeing as how we've tended to put late round safeties out there. Yes, yes we know all too well.
 
Dude, come on. The evidence is there. They don't draft them or they'll get a 6th or 7th round guy. They sign vets as stopgaps and lucked out picking up Pollard because of the Gibbs/Chiefs ties.

& we'd never use a 1st or 2nd on a RB either.... :kitten:

We could have gotten Sharpton with our first in the 4th and my guys Owusu-Ansah(second 4th) and Robert Johnson (5th) would have looked pretty good to me.

Can't argue with that.
 
Let's face it guys. This regime just doesn't care about the position just like the previous regime thought a Tight End was what happened when someone cute bent over. OTOH, this regime loves TE's like they were candy at a kids party, while totally ignoring Safety.

As already pointed out, they lucked into Pollard who is a plus player but not all world. Wilson is servicable/decent with good range when healthy which happens about as often as me going to Tahiti. Both guys were scrap heap players who were waived from other teams, and both were lucked into more than some great plan. Behind the two starters they have the equivelent of 5 day old bread - moldy, smelly and something you want to throw away at the sight of it. Is THAT a great plan for a team wanting to make the playoffs I ask? If one of these guys goes down for any length of team, Barber and his merry band of clueless losers masquerading as legit NFL backups gets to have the teams fate in thier hands. Oh joy.

Their plan for safety's appears to be other teams sloppy seconds. Way to go Smithiak. :cool:
All good points, Porky, but hard to argue with how Pollard did compared to his cost and what next season's cost will be. We basically got a starter for peanuts for 2 years.
 
Has it occurred to anyone that the front office avoided FS because after Nate Allen came off the board there wasn't anyone who could step in and start now or down the line and that no one after Nate Allen presented an upgrade to Eugene Wilson? Why draft a 5th safety when you could add the best talent?
 
& we'd never use a 1st or 2nd on a RB either.... :kitten:
Pfft...what does that have to do with anything? The Texans have at least shown interest and willingness to spend on RB before: Slaton in the 3rd and supposed interest in D Williams/R Matthews in the 1sts. Next time this regime spends (or even thinks of spending) a 1st, 2nd or 3rd on a safety it will be the first time.

06 07 08 09 10
DE DT OL LB CB
LB QB QB DE RB
OL WR RB OL DT

The first 3 picks in every year of this regime includes: ZERO safeties and oddly enough, zero TEs. Other than those two (and at least TE gets addressed over and over and over in later rounds) every other position group has been addressed with a high round pick. If not for K Jack in their 5th(!) draft they would have not spent on the 2ndary at all in the first 3 rounds. From C.C./Earl to Demps/Ferguson to Pollard/Wilson they have used stop gap and band aid tactics to patch up safety and I've been sick of it for a while but now I'm absolutely floored. Counting on Wilson's health is unacceptable and if/when he goes out who is ACTUALLY going to be able to pick up slack? Barber is not good, even if he ended up looking better than god-****ing-awful. Busing is god-****ing-awful and Troy Nolan is about an afterthought if I ever had one. Lord, God Almighty help us if Pollard goes down.

Has it occurred to anyone that the front office avoided FS because after Nate Allen came off the board there wasn't anyone who could step in and start now or down the line and that no one after Nate Allen presented an upgrade to Eugene Wilson? Why draft a 5th safety when you could add the best talent?

Because you have no need for the best talent if the best talent ends up 6th on your depth chart where a safety, even if not BPA would likely sit right behind your current starter who has injury issues.
 
Pfft...what does that have to do with anything? The Texans have at least shown interest and willingness to spend on RB before: Slaton in the 3rd and supposed interest in D Williams/R Matthews in the 1sts. Next time this regime spends (or even thinks of spending) a 1st, 2nd or 3rd on a safety it will be the first time.

06 07 08 09 10
DE DT OL LB CB
LB QB QB DE RB
OL WR RB OL DT

The first 3 picks in every year of this regime includes: ZERO safeties and oddly enough, zero TEs. Other than those two (and at least TE gets addressed over and over and over in later rounds) every other position group has been addressed with a high round pick. If not for K Jack in their 5th(!) draft they would have not spent on the 2ndary at all in the first 3 rounds.

Uh... good points. Maybe... okay it's just silly to add the maybe at this point. Our front office don't value safeties.

I don't agree with your assessment of Barber & Nolan. I do trust Smithiak enough to believe if David Gibbs said he needed more than just bodies, they would have got him one. Not addressing Safety in this draft confirms what I saw, and that was Barber making improvements, and playing well to close the season. Going back and reading the reports on Nolan makes me believe he is part of their plan going forward, and we picked up 2 UDFA safeties.

I agree we messed up last year, and our Safeties at that time weren't good enough to start the season. But we are arguing about a future replacement for Eugene Wilson. If we were talking about getting someone who could replace Wilson now I could understand a week long conversation.

Major Wright
Chad Jones

Both FSs taken before our 3rd round pick. I'll be more than happy to watch them this year, to see what kind of impact they'll have on their perspective teams. No other safeties were taken in the third.

Darrell Stuckey

Chargers took him before our 4th round pick. He's the only safety taken between our 3rd and 4th round picks. I'll watch for him too. No safeties taken after our 4th round pick.

Cam Chancellor
Kendrick Lewis

were taken in the 5th round, before our pick. I really don't see the benefit of drafting a guy here to develop, if we've got 2 guys in development already, that we like. I also don't see the difference between drafting a developmental guy here or getting a couple of guys as UDFA. Their developmental guys.
 
Can someone find out exactly how many games Pollard And E. Wilson played together last year?

Pollard joined the Texans before game 3, but didn't play/start until game 4. Pollard and Wilson both started games 4-10 (7 games together), and then Wilson was out injured games 11-16.
 
I don't agree with your assessment of Barber & Nolan. I do trust Smithiak enough to believe if David Gibbs said he needed more than just bodies, they would have got him one. Not addressing Safety in this draft confirms what I saw, and that was Barber making improvements, and playing well to close the season. Going back and reading the reports on Nolan makes me believe he is part of their plan going forward, and we picked up 2 UDFA safeties.

I agree we messed up last year, and our Safeties at that time weren't good enough to start the season. But we are arguing about a future replacement for Eugene Wilson. If we were talking about getting someone who could replace Wilson now I could understand a week long conversation.
We'll agree to disagree about Barber but Nolan...there is no assessment. He hasn't even been to a practice yet has he?

Wilson's time here is coming to an end, the thing about being a placeholder is that eventually someone takes that place from you. His replacement needs to be on the roster sooner than later because of his injury problem and age. Is it really Barber? That's the only player you can possibly consider.

I really don't see the benefit of drafting a guy here to develop, if we've got 2 guys in development already, that we like. I also don't see the difference between drafting a developmental guy here or getting a couple of guys as UDFA. Their developmental guys.
True.
Can someone find out exactly how many games Pollard And E. Wilson played together last year?
Pollard joined the Texans before game 3, but didn't play/start until game 4. Pollard and Wilson both started games 4-10 (7 games together), and then Wilson was out injured games 11-16.

Nice work. Double points if anyone feels like stat-ing it up to show their effectiveness together and Wilson's true impact (we know Pollard's). If not I'll do it later.
 
These are the drafted safeties from the 2010 draft. I bolded the teams that took 2 safeties. Notice the top four teams that took a safety ended up drafting another one later. I think once Taylor Mays (who we wouldn't have drafted anyway)went ahead of the Texans that Morgan Burnett should have been targeted. The Texans would have had to move up 11 spots in the 3rd to get him costing them a te or a special teams player. If by chance Earl Mitchell was gone (which I doubt) when we picked then Geno Atkins was still there. I think we took cb too early because there was so much depth at that position in this draft that potential starting quality cb's were still going in the late rounds.

1-5 Kansas City Chiefs Berry, Eric
1-14 Seattle Seahawks Thomas, Earl
2-37 Philadelphia Eagles Allen, Nate
2-38 Cleveland Browns Ward, T. J.
2-49 San Francisco 49ers Mays, Taylor
3-71 Green Bay Packers Burnett, Morgan
3-75 Chicago Bears Wright, Major
3-76 New York Giants Jones, Chad
4-110 San Diego Chargers Stuckey, Darrell
5-133 Seattle Seahawks Chancellor, Kam
5-136 Kansas City Chiefs Lewis, Kendrick
5-148 Tennessee Titans Johnson, Robert
5-160 Cleveland Browns Asante, Larry
5-163 Miami Dolphins Jones, Reshad
6-171 Atlanta Falcons Schillinger, Shann
6-207 Tennessee Titans Rolle, Myron
7-210 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Grimm, Cody
7-244 Philadelphia Eagles Coleman, Kurt
7-251 Oakland Raiders Brown, Stevie
 
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