For the last 3 years, Ive been harping on the importance of good safety play to NFL teams.
My points have centered around the following:
1. More sacks does not lead to more turnovers. Good defensive back play leads to more turnovers. Ive shown this statistically.
2. The most successful teams of the past few seasons have had stellar safety play. Winning and safety play correlates.
This year came and went, and again, no impact FS was drafted. At first I was upset, and then I realized why it had happened. Here are a few of my hypotheses:
1. Our biggest need this offseason was CB. We play a very difficult scheudle this season with a lot of pass happy teams. Starting a rookie CB along side a rookie FS is a recipe for disaster. You can get away with starting a rookie CB against teams like Indy if you use a veteran safety over the top as an insurance policy.
2. Eugene Wilson is coming along a lot better than we believe. If he played up to 100% of his ability, safety isn't such a glaring need for us. Maybe he's a lot healthier than we think.
3. The coaching staff has reason to be confident in development of Nolan, Barber, etc. Weve had good luck with 7th round picks in the past, so its not unprecedented that Nolan could have made progress and be in the works.
4. One of our current CBs is looking to switch to safety. Molden is 6-1 200+ pounds, and would make the best fit. Maybe its him.
5. The safeties we wanted in each round were chosen before us.
I wanted Earl Thomas in the 1st. He went at 14
In the second, I wanted Taylor Mays. He went 2 spots before us.
I like Major Wright in the 3rd, and he went right before us.
I have no explanation for Reshad Jones, who I also liked. He was there for us in the 5th, and we passed on him. We chose McMannis instead, who I had never heard of. Jones was supposed to go earlier, so maybe there was an issue there we didn't know about
Anyway, just some food for thought. The Texans may have been targeting a safety all along, but had them picked out from under them. Not willing to trade up 5-10 spots to secure the picks, they may just have not had any available. Better not to choose one who isnt oging to make a difference than reach for a project player just to draft a need
My points have centered around the following:
1. More sacks does not lead to more turnovers. Good defensive back play leads to more turnovers. Ive shown this statistically.
2. The most successful teams of the past few seasons have had stellar safety play. Winning and safety play correlates.
This year came and went, and again, no impact FS was drafted. At first I was upset, and then I realized why it had happened. Here are a few of my hypotheses:
1. Our biggest need this offseason was CB. We play a very difficult scheudle this season with a lot of pass happy teams. Starting a rookie CB along side a rookie FS is a recipe for disaster. You can get away with starting a rookie CB against teams like Indy if you use a veteran safety over the top as an insurance policy.
2. Eugene Wilson is coming along a lot better than we believe. If he played up to 100% of his ability, safety isn't such a glaring need for us. Maybe he's a lot healthier than we think.
3. The coaching staff has reason to be confident in development of Nolan, Barber, etc. Weve had good luck with 7th round picks in the past, so its not unprecedented that Nolan could have made progress and be in the works.
4. One of our current CBs is looking to switch to safety. Molden is 6-1 200+ pounds, and would make the best fit. Maybe its him.
5. The safeties we wanted in each round were chosen before us.
I wanted Earl Thomas in the 1st. He went at 14
In the second, I wanted Taylor Mays. He went 2 spots before us.
I like Major Wright in the 3rd, and he went right before us.
I have no explanation for Reshad Jones, who I also liked. He was there for us in the 5th, and we passed on him. We chose McMannis instead, who I had never heard of. Jones was supposed to go earlier, so maybe there was an issue there we didn't know about
Anyway, just some food for thought. The Texans may have been targeting a safety all along, but had them picked out from under them. Not willing to trade up 5-10 spots to secure the picks, they may just have not had any available. Better not to choose one who isnt oging to make a difference than reach for a project player just to draft a need