Stats on the Texans DBs in 2009

Latest blog post at the Chronicle:

More on Dunta Robinson and the Texans cornerbacks

It's a Q&A with Bill Barnwell of Football Outsiders. I thought it was interesting, and I learned some things (which is one goal of my favorite blog posts).

Not sure that it gives us any answers to anything but it certainly explains a lot of our ambivalence on the topic.

Also contains a discussion of what is a little off with the ProFootballFocus numbers that people like to use.

The points you make about how difficult it is to pinpoint his production are accurate. I feel like I was very realistic about his production last year. I tried not to look at him for anything other than his actual production and I believe that it was towards the second half of the season that I really began to notice the difference between the tackling of Quin, Cushing, Ryans and Pollard compared to #23. My realization wasn't about him in coverage but rather the fact that it was becoming clear that our best CB was suddenly the worst tackler in the back 7 and THAT WAS HUGE TO ME. That's what I was seeing on the TV when I would rewatch.

The second thing to me was watching Quin making plays on the ball in comparison to Robinson and again thinking that he was simply doing a better job. Other than what you can see "on the ball" on TV there's no way to judge them in pass defense I don't think. At least not accurately.

Rick Smith always talks about "value" and that in my mind is the only thing that is really easy to judge. If he would be come one of the top 4 highest paid players on this team it wouldn't seem to be a good value and I think that is really all that can be said with any confidence about the impact of the decision.

I think his pass defense will be missed more than people are willing to admit though.

barrett said:

The points you make about how difficult it is to pinpoint his production are accurate. I feel like I was very realistic about his production last year. I tried not to look at him for anything other than his actual production and I believe that it was towards the second half of the season that I really began to notice the difference between the tackling of Quin, Cushing, Ryans and Pollard compared to #23. My realization wasn't about him in coverage but rather the fact that it was becoming clear that our best CB was suddenly the worst tackler in the back 7 and THAT WAS HUGE TO ME. That's what I was seeing on the TV when I would rewatch.

The second thing to me was watching Quin making plays on the ball in comparison to Robinson and again thinking that he was simply doing a better job. Other than what you can see "on the ball" on TV there's no way to judge them in pass defense I don't think. At least not accurately.

Rick Smith always talks about "value" and that in my mind is the only thing that is really easy to judge. If he would be come one of the top 4 highest paid players on this team it wouldn't seem to be a good value and I think that is really all that can be said with any confidence about the impact of the decision.

I think his pass defense will be missed more than people are willing to admit though.

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I've been missing his pass defense for the last three years!

As a part of the PFF puzzle I think there are some things of the mark regarding some comments regarding our website. Player participation isn't easy, but it isn't impossible and we're up around the 99.7% mark on stuff we've had verified. We make mistakes, but like I say its not impossible and while we're not gospel nor trying to eliminate subjectivity, I think there's merit in what we do as people who spends hours on every single game (plus our stats are more accurate than anything out there - we do thinks retrospectively which is the difference between getting a tackler right or given someone who is not even on the field credit)

On point (and I'm happy to deal with any concerns regarding PFF - we're not perfect at all, but strive to be as perfect as the science of football analysis allows us) it will be harder to replace Robinson than some believe, but at the same time the drop off that could come isn't going to be all that much because Robinson hasn't been playing to a high level.

He did follow a teams number one receiver around and didn't do to bad in truth, but it wasn't anywhere near the kind of money he wanted. Maybe half it. As it is some team is going to overpay him - just be glad it isn't you guys. I don't see why Quin and Reeves cant be a decent duo, the big problem is going to be generating consistent pressure up the middle.

Kal said:

As a part of the PFF puzzle I think there are some things of the mark regarding some comments regarding our website. Player participation isn't easy, but it isn't impossible and we're up around the 99.7% mark on stuff we've had verified. We make mistakes, but like I say its not impossible and while we're not gospel nor trying to eliminate subjectivity, I think there's merit in what we do as people who spends hours on every single game (plus our stats are more accurate than anything out there - we do thinks retrospectively which is the difference between getting a tackler right or given someone who is not even on the field credit)

On point (and I'm happy to deal with any concerns regarding PFF - we're not perfect at all, but strive to be as perfect as the science of football analysis allows us) it will be harder to replace Robinson than some believe, but at the same time the drop off that could come isn't going to be all that much because Robinson hasn't been playing to a high level.

He did follow a teams number one receiver around and didn't do to bad in truth, but it wasn't anywhere near the kind of money he wanted. Maybe half it. As it is some team is going to overpay him - just be glad it isn't you guys. I don't see why Quin and Reeves cant be a decent duo, the big problem is going to be generating consistent pressure up the middle.

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It remains "the big problem". Real disruptive pressure in the middle would take our defense to an entirely new level and make Quin/Reeves look like a quality starting duo. As long as the front of the pocket continues to be impossible to penetrate we're going to continue to see our secondary have trouble on third down and our DE's being hearded wide right/left.

Hervoyel said:

It remains "the big problem". Real disruptive pressure in the middle would take our defense to an entirely new level and make Quin/Reeves look like a quality starting duo. As long as the front of the pocket continues to be impossible to penetrate we're going to continue to see our secondary have trouble on third down and our DE's being hearded wide right/left.

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So true and this represents the reason teams are searching high & low for DTs
who are effective at penetrating the pocket. These type of pass rushers are almost more in vogue now than edge rushers because of the QBs abilty to push up into the front of the pocket. Most CBs "look like a quality starting duo" with that kind of QB pressure up front.

Great stuff Steph as always!

I think its important to focus on the part about not being able to rely on all these statistics being thrown around. We don't know what players assignments are always and some can look to be doing their jobs but aren't (the center/defensive tackle example in the article). The best way to judge players are watching them on tape, numbers can't possibly quantify what a guy does out there. Rick has the luxury of having Gibbs or Bush there with him while evaluating Dunta's season on tape, I'm sure asking after every play "did he do his assignment properly" etc etc.

I think the Dunta decision has less to do with his actual football production though and more to do with wanting to spend that money elsewhere, and the fact that this draft is ultra deep in corners. So basically the decision was Quinn/Reeves can replace Dunta and a draftee can replace Quinn/Reeves.