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PLAYOFFS?! Optimism?

Air Canada

Waterboy
Hey it can still happen, but we need some things to play out for us....

The Eagles needed similar things to happen to make the playoffs when they were struggling last year. They went 9-6-1 to get in.

There situation was

■The Eagles were mathematically eliminated from winning the division, so they had to take one of the two wild card spots to get in.
■They had to win the last 3 games to get in.
■The final 3 spots came down to the Eagles, Cowboys, Bucs, Panthers and Falcons. They had to look at the 7-6 Redskins, Saints and Bears to see if it is possible for them to make it a 9-6-1 and needed them all to lose.

The got lucky, got in and had a deep run in the postseason. Can't we?
 
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treduke

Rookie
eagles got lucky plain and simple but stranger things have happened.
but let's not start making plans for the playoffs just yet!
 

Kimmy

RealGirls LvFB!
Hey it can still happen, but we need some things to play out for us....

The Eagles needed similar things to happen to make the playoffs when they were struggling last year. They went 9-6-1 to get in.

There situation was

■The Eagles were mathematically eliminated from winning the division, so they had to take one of the two wild card spots to get in.
■They had to win the last 3 games to get in.
■The final 3 spots came down to the Eagles, Cowboys, Bucs, Panthers and Falcons. They had to look at the 7-6 Redskins, Saints and Bears to see if it is possible for them to make it a 9-6-1 and needed them all to lose.

The got lucky, got in and had a deep run in the postseason. Can't we?
That's the difference between the NFC and AFC ... AFC has stronger teams to get past
 

Thorn

Dirty Old Man
The Texans won't be in the playoffs this year. Get over it. But they do have three games left to play, which is better that say......February through August.
 

Vinny

shiny happy fan
my playoff hopes died when they couldn't beat one playoff caliber or semi-playoff caliber team in the last month.
 
To have any semi-realistic hope, we must win out to finish 9-7. Here's who we're competing against:

Your current wildcards
Denver 8-5
Jacksonville 7-6
Denver still has Oakland and KC at home (and Philly on the road). In all likelihood, they are finishing at least 10-6. So they're one wildcard (or division champ if San Diego does a complete nose-dive).
Because we were swept by the Jags, they own the tiebreak. So we'll need them to lose twice. But they've got a tough closing schedule: Indy, at NE, at Cleveland. I think we'll get the losses we need from them.

Here's the other teams also in the hunt
N.Y.Jets 7-6
They own the tiebreaker over us because of week 1, so we need two losses. They close Atlanta, at Indy, Cincy. Another tough closing kick; hopefully the Colts and Bengals still have something to play for (though, for Indy, it may just be for an unbeaten season)

Miami 7-6
They're closing schedule is irrelevant to us aside from, of course, our game. If we win that one (and the other two), then Miami won't be the team to keep us out--we'll both be 9-7 and we'll have the tiebreaker. They could still get into the playoffs if we are in a three-way tiebreaker with, say, the Jets, but we'll need the Jets to finish 8-8 or worse under any scenario that would get us in.

Baltimore 7-6
This is the team that probably keeps a 9-7 Texan team out of the playoffs. If Baltimore finishes 2-1 for a 9-7 record, they'll own the tiebreaker over us because of a better conference record. So we need them to lose twice, but here's their closing: Chicago, at Pittsburgh, at Oakland.

Pittsburgh 6-7
I'm not sure how a tiebreaker would shake out between us and the Steelers because we'd both have the same conference record (6-6) if we finish 9-7. But with the way they are playing and their closing schedule, a 3-0 finish is unlikely: Green Bay, Baltimore, at Miami. And we'll need them to beat the Ravens if we are to have any realistic hope.

Tennessee 6-7
If we both get to 9-7, we'll own the tiebreaker because of a better conference record (6-6 versus 5-7). Like Miami, what they do from here on our is irrelevant to our playoff hopes.

One other team that may be worth watching:
New England 8-5
They currently lead the East, but only by a game over Miami and, more importantly for us, the Jets. If the Jets pass them (and we beat them), then we'll own the tiebreaker. But for the Jets to pull the trick off, they must lose once; but for us to then catch them, they'll need to lose twice. They close: at Buffalo, Jacksonville, at Houston. Of course, if they lose to the Jags, then that would knock us out Cleveland beats them in week 17.

If you want to know the most likely scenario, here it is:
Week 15
1. We beat St. Louis (if we can't beat the Rams, playoff are the least of our worries)
2. Indy beats the Jags (pretty much mandatory)
3. Atlanta beats the Jets (not mandatory, but most helpful)
4. Chicago beats Baltimore
5. Green Bay beats Pittsburgh (though this may not matter at all)

Week 16
1. We beat Miami
2. Pittsburgh beats Baltimore (pretty close to mandatory)
3. NE beats the Jags
4. Indy beats the Jets

Week 17
1. We beat New England
2. If the Jets have lost to either Atlanta or Indy (but not both), then Cincy beats the Jets.
3. If Baltimore has only lost one more game, then Oakland over Baltimore.

Piece of cake, right???
 

tedr

Rookie
Tennessee 6-7
If we both get to 9-7, we'll own the tiebreaker because of a better conference record (6-6 versus 5-7). Like Miami, what they do from here on our is irrelevant to our playoff hopes.


I wish the above was true, but, unfortunately, since we're in the same division, after head-to-head, division record is the next tiebreaker, even if it's for a wildcard, and not the division.

That said, I don't think the Titans will run the table. If they do, they probably deserve to get the last spot.
 

awtysst

Draft Guru
So coming into today, the Texans needed to sweep their games and get some luck. They had a 0.56% chance of making the playoffs.

Now, lets see where they are now. Again, I am saying there is a 50:50 chance per game. So, they have a .125 of winning all three games.

Tennessee: won by 40. So we still need at least 1 loss. This would be .875

Steelers: still .875

Dolphins: won. need 2 losses of 3=0.50

Jets: won. also need 2 losses=0.5

Ravens won: also 0.5

Jags: 0.5

Texans:=0.68%
 

Norg

-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-
Balty is the team that scares me


Balty and the Jags control there own destiny all they need 2 do is win
 

sakebomb

Veteran
The bottom line is that the Texans must learn how to win games in their division. We do that then we will start realistically challenging for playoff spots.
 

BIG TORO

TERADACTYL #23
Balty is the team that scares me


Balty and the Jags control there own destiny all they need 2 do is win
I agree the biggest problem is baltimore loosing two games and there playing chicago, pitts, and oakland, they might win out the rest of the season!
 

BIG TORO

TERADACTYL #23
Anything Can Happen!


Teams................Losses needed..............Teams to Play

Jacksonville..................2........................Indy, New England, Cleveland

Steelers.......................1........................Green Bay, Baltimore, Miami

Baltimore......................2........................Chicago, Pittsburg, Oakland

Jets.............................2........................Atlana, Indy, Cincinnati

Miami...........................2........................Titans, Texans, Pittsburg

Titans..........................1........................Miami, San diego, Seattle

If all this happens and we beat the RAMS, Dolphins, and Patriots we are in the playoffs
 

HoustonFrog

Dallas Frog
No. The reason why is the Dolphins. Not because of their position with the Texans. But because of their position with NE. The Texans play the Dolphins and then will play a NE team that has to win for their own division. NE isn't what they used to be but I don't see the Texans beating the Dolphins and NE.
 

tedr

Rookie
Anything Can Happen!


Teams................Losses needed..............Teams to Play

Jacksonville..................2........................Indy, New England, Cleveland

Steelers.......................1........................Green Bay, Baltimore, Miami

Baltimore......................2........................Chicago, Pittsburg, Oakland

Jets.............................2........................Atlana, Indy, Cincinnati

Miami...........................2........................Titans, Texans, Pittsburg

Titans..........................1........................Miami, San diego, Seattle

If all this happens and we beat the RAMS, Dolphins, and Patriots we are in the playoffs
Thanks for the information. However, if we beat Miami, we wouldn't need them to lose another game, right?
 

Runner

Hubcap Diamond
Staff member
This scenario is being made to sound somehow more plausible than it would have been for the Texans to win two of those four division games they had in weeks 9-13 and really set themselves up for a playoff run.

I don't know what's sadder - being forced to grab at this final straw, or the fact that this scenario really was the more likely to occur.
 

HOU-TEX

Ah, Football!
Have we ever had a 4 game winning streak in our existence? :spit:

To me, our playoff chances died after the titans game.

Side note: All the players saying they're coming together and playing for the team after an inspirational speech by Kubiak in week 14 is par for the course.
 

bckey

All Pro
This scenario is being made to sound somehow more plausible than it would have been for the Texans to win two of those four division games they had in weeks 9-13 and really set themselves up for a playoff run.

I don't know what's sadder - being forced to grab at this final straw, or the fact that this scenario really was the more likely occur.
I'm not even thinking about grabbing the always elusive Texan playoff straw. Most fans have enough sense to know that the Texans are not going anywhere. This was by far the easiest schedule for them and the most talent that they have ever fielded and they blew it. No pressure any more so win away against the Seahawks and Rams and feel good about yourselves. You should have taken care of business when it mattered. Four division losses in a row. Wow. As long as Kubiak and the Texans continue to lose against the AFC South they will always be mired in mediocrity and out of playoff contention. Mathmatically alive only to give those diehard koolaid drinkers a rallying cry.

 
K

ktplaya

Guest
The team with the easiest schedule is baltimore everybody else I think can lose what we need them to
 

barrett

All Pro
I think the biggest kink may end up being that Indy can actually start sitting their players now. They play several of the teams that we need to have loose 1 or more games and if they're playing a 3rd string QB that could become more difficult.

edit:
Caldwell said "healthy" starters would play Thursday. He plans to revisit the debate for each of the final two games.
So that should help us for at least 1 more week.


http://www.nfl.com/news/story?id=09000d5d814f7b15&template=with-video-with-comments&confirm=true
 
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Kaiser Toro

Native Mod
I am very disappointed in this season to date, especially the coaching. However, that does not take away from the novelty of this being the first time I have been able to look in the paper after week 13 and still be mathematically in the playoff race.

In those darkest of hours a small light at the end of the tunnel is priceless. :bubbles:
 

dalemurphy

Hall of Fame
Anything Can Happen!


Teams................Losses needed..............Teams to Play

Jacksonville..................2........................Indy, New England, Cleveland

Steelers.......................1........................Green Bay, Baltimore, Miami

Baltimore......................2........................Chicago, Pittsburg, Oakland

Jets.............................2........................Atlana, Indy, Cincinnati

Miami...........................2........................Titans, Texans, Pittsburg
Titans..........................1........................Miami, San diego, Seattle

If all this happens and we beat the RAMS, Dolphins, and Patriots we are in the playoffs
If we beat Miami, we'd have the head to head against them, even if they win the other two games. So, I don't think they have to lose another one.
 

Texecutioner

Hall of Fame
I'm not even thinking about grabbing the always elusive Texan playoff straw. Most fans have enough sense to know that the Texans are not going anywhere. This was by far the easiest schedule for them and the most talent that they have ever fielded and they blew it. No pressure any more so win away against the Seahawks and Rams and feel good about yourselves. You should have taken care of business when it mattered. Four division losses in a row. Wow. As long as Kubiak and the Texans continue to lose against the AFC South they will always be mired in mediocrity and out of playoff contention. Mathmatically alive only to give those diehard koolaid drinkers a rallying cry.

This right here. ^^^^^^^^^^
 

Giant Tiger

Veteran
Anything Can Happen!


Teams................Losses needed..............Teams to Play

Jacksonville..................2........................Indy, New England, Cleveland

Steelers.......................1........................Green Bay, Baltimore, Miami

Baltimore......................2........................Chicago, Pittsburg, Oakland

Jets.............................2........................Atlana, Indy, Cincinnati

Miami...........................2........................Titans, Texans, Pittsburg

Titans..........................1........................Miami, San diego, Seattle

If all this happens and we beat the RAMS, Dolphins, and Patriots we are in the playoffs
Isn't there another longshot? What if Baltimore wins their last 3 to finish 10-6 & Cincinnati loses out & finishes 9-7? Don't we own the tie-breaker over Cincinnati? If they lose to San Diego, that's 2 losses in a row. Who do they play before the Jets? The Jets would have to lose their first 2, then beat Cincinnati, but this is possible.
 
Idk this is all so complicated we arent really going to know what is going on till we beat the dolphins. The last week of the season is when we would get in anyways if it happens.
 

tedr

Rookie
Isn't there another longshot? What if Baltimore wins their last 3 to finish 10-6 & Cincinnati loses out & finishes 9-7? Don't we own the tie-breaker over Cincinnati? If they lose to San Diego, that's 2 losses in a row. Who do they play before the Jets? The Jets would have to lose their first 2, then beat Cincinnati, but this is possible.
The Bengals play KC at Cincy in game 15, so not much chance of a loss there, but you never know.

However, there is a scenario where the Jets would only have to lose one game. Here's how.

If the Jets lose one more game they'll finish 9-7. If the Dolphins only lose to the Texans, they'll be 9-7 as well. Let's say that those two teams, along with the Texans, tie for the last spot. NFL tiebreaking procedures say that the first step is eliminating all but the highest ranked team in each division. The Texans, being the only team from the AFC South, would represent that division. Since the Dolphins swept the Jets, they would represent the East. Then, since the Jets have been eliminated, the tiebreaking procedures would revert back to the two-team format. Since the Texans would have defeated the Dolphins, they would advance as the wildcard.

Not the most likely of scenarios, but you never know.

http://www.nfl.com/standings/tiebreakingprocedures
 
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dbruder44

Practice Squad
To have any semi-realistic hope, we must win out to finish 9-7. Here's who we're competing against:

Your current wildcards
Denver 8-5
Jacksonville 7-6
Denver still has Oakland and KC at home (and Philly on the road). In all likelihood, they are finishing at least 10-6. So they're one wildcard (or division champ if San Diego does a complete nose-dive).
Because we were swept by the Jags, they own the tiebreak. So we'll need them to lose twice. But they've got a tough closing schedule: Indy, at NE, at Cleveland. I think we'll get the losses we need from them.

Here's the other teams also in the hunt
N.Y.Jets 7-6
They own the tiebreaker over us because of week 1, so we need two losses. They close Atlanta, at Indy, Cincy. Another tough closing kick; hopefully the Colts and Bengals still have something to play for (though, for Indy, it may just be for an unbeaten season)

Miami 7-6
They're closing schedule is irrelevant to us aside from, of course, our game. If we win that one (and the other two), then Miami won't be the team to keep us out--we'll both be 9-7 and we'll have the tiebreaker. They could still get into the playoffs if we are in a three-way tiebreaker with, say, the Jets, but we'll need the Jets to finish 8-8 or worse under any scenario that would get us in.

Baltimore 7-6
This is the team that probably keeps a 9-7 Texan team out of the playoffs. If Baltimore finishes 2-1 for a 9-7 record, they'll own the tiebreaker over us because of a better conference record. So we need them to lose twice, but here's their closing: Chicago, at Pittsburgh, at Oakland.

Pittsburgh 6-7
I'm not sure how a tiebreaker would shake out between us and the Steelers because we'd both have the same conference record (6-6) if we finish 9-7. But with the way they are playing and their closing schedule, a 3-0 finish is unlikely: Green Bay, Baltimore, at Miami. And we'll need them to beat the Ravens if we are to have any realistic hope.

Tennessee 6-7
If we both get to 9-7, we'll own the tiebreaker because of a better conference record (6-6 versus 5-7). Like Miami, what they do from here on our is irrelevant to our playoff hopes.

One other team that may be worth watching:
New England 8-5
They currently lead the East, but only by a game over Miami and, more importantly for us, the Jets. If the Jets pass them (and we beat them), then we'll own the tiebreaker. But for the Jets to pull the trick off, they must lose once; but for us to then catch them, they'll need to lose twice. They close: at Buffalo, Jacksonville, at Houston. Of course, if they lose to the Jags, then that would knock us out Cleveland beats them in week 17.

If you want to know the most likely scenario, here it is:
Week 15
1. We beat St. Louis (if we can't beat the Rams, playoff are the least of our worries)
2. Indy beats the Jags (pretty much mandatory)
3. Atlanta beats the Jets (not mandatory, but most helpful)
4. Chicago beats Baltimore
5. Green Bay beats Pittsburgh (though this may not matter at all)

Week 16
1. We beat Miami
2. Pittsburgh beats Baltimore (pretty close to mandatory)
3. NE beats the Jags
4. Indy beats the Jets

Week 17
1. We beat New England
2. If the Jets have lost to either Atlanta or Indy (but not both), then Cincy beats the Jets.
3. If Baltimore has only lost one more game, then Oakland over Baltimore.

Piece of cake, right???
I'd like to see Miami beat Tennessee this week, if for no other reason than to get Tenn out of the way. If we beat Miami, that takes care of our tiebreaker with the Dolphins.

Honestly, the only two teams that we're competing with that have to have two more losses are the Jags and Ravens. In a three way tie for the last wildcard between the Texans, Dolphins, and Jets at 9-7, we'd get the spot, because:

...according to the NFL tiebreaking procedures, in the above situation, all but the top team from each division is eliminated first (using divisional tiebreakers). Since Miami swept the Jets, Miami would come from the East and we would be from the South (assuming the Jags and Titans have more than 7 losses each). Since we would have the head-to-head advantage over the Dolphins, we'd get the spot.

http://www.nfl.com/standings/tiebreakingprocedures

Clear as mud, huh?
 

Insideop

All Pro
I'd like to see Miami beat Tennessee this week, if for no other reason than to get Tenn out of the way. If we beat Miami, that takes care of our tiebreaker with the Dolphins.

Honestly, the only two teams that we're competing with that have to have two more losses are the Jags and Ravens. In a three way tie for the last wildcard between the Texans, Dolphins, and Jets at 9-7, we'd get the spot, because:

...according to the NFL tiebreaking procedures, in the above situation, all but the top team from each division is eliminated first (using divisional tiebreakers). Since Miami swept the Jets, Miami would come from the East and we would be from the South (assuming the Jags and Titans have more than 7 losses each). Since we would have the head-to-head advantage over the Dolphins, we'd get the spot.

http://www.nfl.com/standings/tiebreakingprocedures

Clear as mud, huh?
Well, for those of us still clinging to a thread of hope, the first domino just fell. Indy beat Jac (35-31)! Wohoo! :yahoo::jumpbanan:wow::marionaner:

Now, if the rest of the dominos fall......
 
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