I've been quiet so far this year. Very quiet. I was watching unsure of what to think. Are we the team that got blown out by the Jets? Are we the team that beat the Bengals? WHAT ARE WE? Well we're at that familiar time again. Its December and we are going to play 4 more meaningless games. Fans will shell out $50+ to go watch a team that is stuck in the mud. And so begins the disagreement.
In one corner you have the fire Kubiak crowd. Weighing in at a mighty 55% (ok that's a completely random number) the voice is loud and the reasons are sound. Below .500, dissapointing losses, one play short over and over. The learning curve can't be this big, we can't continue to rely on any variation of Chris Brown, yet we do. I'm sympathetic with this group, no really, I am. I'm sick of dressing my entire family in Texans Uni's only to have drop my head in shame as time expires and we come up a yard or two short or to the left. MAN I'm sick of it. I hate the closeups of Kubiak after a bad play. Why can't we have Jessica Alba as our coach? At least that cod-fished mouth open clueless look would be enticing. FIRE HIS @SS!!!
In the other corner you have the Kubiak apologists. Weighing in at a hefty 45% they are still a force to be rekoned with. They point to the fact that the team Kubes took over couldn't have competed in the WAC, much less the NFL. Now we expect to win every week. (ok we expect to find a new way to lose a game we should have won). The injuries and contract situations have been difficult and your prized rb declined faster than Glenn Davis. (If you know who that is you're a TRUE Houston fan). The list of reasons is long. You can call them excuses, you can call them reasons I don't care... some of them are legitimate and others aren't. The problem is... I agree with them too.
So what to do? I've thought about it a lot. I go back and forth. Monday I was calling for Cower's head (assuming he will come here and fail in 3 years too... that seems to be the pattern). Tuesday I just wanted Kubiaks on a platter stuffed with pink soap. But its hump day now. Its time to start thinking instead of reacting (which is ironic don't you think?... players need to react and not think while fans should think and not react). And here is my suggestion.
First, lets consider the real situation.
This is a young team that is loaded with talent. Johnson, Schaub, Daniels (pre-injury), Mario, Demeco and Cushing are all BIG time players. At every position but RB and CB and the interior OL you have average or better talent. Its not just a young team, it is THE YOUNGEST team in the league. You are not in a situation that you will be losing key players and you don't expect a decline any time soon.
You have drafted VERY well over the last 4 years. You took a team that had a lot of mid-major FBS talent on it and turned it into a very talented team in 4 years. You should be able to add a DT and/or a RB and some secondary help easily.
You lack leadership on the field. Even the veterans on this team have never really played in a winning culture. I know, we brought in someone from a superbowl team this last offseason. Really? Are you going to tell me Arizona has a winning culture? They had a nice 6 game stretch, other than that they are the Texans of the NFC. You MUST go get some veteran leadership at a position that matters. Maybe a center on the OL? Maybe bring in a DT or a LB? They can be backups on the cusp of starting, or maybe even a grizzled vet who is the PITs of the world see as "too expensive to keep". You need that guy who can deliver a "Miracle-esque" speach on cue, especially when the wheels start falling off.
You are very close to being good. This team isn't a "bad team". The are a frustrating team. With Capers, we were hoping to hang around until the 4th and steal one, those days are gone. This team expects to win every week, the problem is they just don't know how. (see comment above)
Realistically, the worst you could see from this team next year is this year. This team has too much talent. Barring injury, the absolute worst this team could do next year is repeat this year. Do I want to go through this? No. In order to get a "known commodity" from what's out there this year we would wind up switching our defense at the very least.
The upside for this team? Very deep into the playoffs. If you draft well (check) and if you get good coaching (not checked yet) this team's first forray into the playoffs could be a deep run. If/when this team gets into the playoffs its not going to be a 9-7 sneak. This team is bound to figure it out at some point, and bust out with a 11-5/12-4 season.
That brings me to my next point, this team doesn't know how to win (also tied to the veteran issue above). That might be the hardest thing about coming back from a 2-14 team. Changing the culture.
So what do you do with all of this? Here's my plan, yours may differ. Tell Kubes he has 20+ games to win his next contract. Don't make him a lame duck coach, explain to the coaches and the team that he is on a 20 game contract. He essentially has 8 preseason games (4 reg this year and 4 real preseason games). Evaluate and find what parts you are really missing. Next year it is playoffs, or no new contract.
Why? Why? Why? The bottom line is this. You are going to add talent, and there aren't many players you risk losing this offseason. The likelyhood that you look any worse to a potential coach (I think Dungy will coach the year after next) is little to none. You need to call Kubes in and tell him to start coaching. Its time for him to stop thinking and start coaching. You'll get him the RB that can hold onto the ball, you'll give Smith the money to go grab a Safety and a Corner and a DT. Right or wrong, its clear that Kubes had the wrong guy as his DC. That is no longer an issue, Bush has this defense playing like it should. On offense we are an interior lineman and a dependable rb away from rivaling the greatest show on turf. You potentially lose 1 year of rebuilding time by keeping him. You have him under contract anyway and there is a good chance that he will figure it out. When Kubiak sits down and evaluates this season, I think he's going to see he was coaching like he didn't have the talent to win. He'll see that he didn't need the gimmiks, the HB passes. He is close to being a premier coach, we are close to being a premier franchise.
The reality is, whenever you let him go, you are going to be at the top of a short list of proven coache's desires. You're going to have a ton of talent and an owner with a history of loyalty. You'll basically have your pick and can go in whatever direction you want. Its not a fun position to be in, but this team is in a much better position than it has been.
Mike
In one corner you have the fire Kubiak crowd. Weighing in at a mighty 55% (ok that's a completely random number) the voice is loud and the reasons are sound. Below .500, dissapointing losses, one play short over and over. The learning curve can't be this big, we can't continue to rely on any variation of Chris Brown, yet we do. I'm sympathetic with this group, no really, I am. I'm sick of dressing my entire family in Texans Uni's only to have drop my head in shame as time expires and we come up a yard or two short or to the left. MAN I'm sick of it. I hate the closeups of Kubiak after a bad play. Why can't we have Jessica Alba as our coach? At least that cod-fished mouth open clueless look would be enticing. FIRE HIS @SS!!!
In the other corner you have the Kubiak apologists. Weighing in at a hefty 45% they are still a force to be rekoned with. They point to the fact that the team Kubes took over couldn't have competed in the WAC, much less the NFL. Now we expect to win every week. (ok we expect to find a new way to lose a game we should have won). The injuries and contract situations have been difficult and your prized rb declined faster than Glenn Davis. (If you know who that is you're a TRUE Houston fan). The list of reasons is long. You can call them excuses, you can call them reasons I don't care... some of them are legitimate and others aren't. The problem is... I agree with them too.
So what to do? I've thought about it a lot. I go back and forth. Monday I was calling for Cower's head (assuming he will come here and fail in 3 years too... that seems to be the pattern). Tuesday I just wanted Kubiaks on a platter stuffed with pink soap. But its hump day now. Its time to start thinking instead of reacting (which is ironic don't you think?... players need to react and not think while fans should think and not react). And here is my suggestion.
First, lets consider the real situation.
This is a young team that is loaded with talent. Johnson, Schaub, Daniels (pre-injury), Mario, Demeco and Cushing are all BIG time players. At every position but RB and CB and the interior OL you have average or better talent. Its not just a young team, it is THE YOUNGEST team in the league. You are not in a situation that you will be losing key players and you don't expect a decline any time soon.
You have drafted VERY well over the last 4 years. You took a team that had a lot of mid-major FBS talent on it and turned it into a very talented team in 4 years. You should be able to add a DT and/or a RB and some secondary help easily.
You lack leadership on the field. Even the veterans on this team have never really played in a winning culture. I know, we brought in someone from a superbowl team this last offseason. Really? Are you going to tell me Arizona has a winning culture? They had a nice 6 game stretch, other than that they are the Texans of the NFC. You MUST go get some veteran leadership at a position that matters. Maybe a center on the OL? Maybe bring in a DT or a LB? They can be backups on the cusp of starting, or maybe even a grizzled vet who is the PITs of the world see as "too expensive to keep". You need that guy who can deliver a "Miracle-esque" speach on cue, especially when the wheels start falling off.
You are very close to being good. This team isn't a "bad team". The are a frustrating team. With Capers, we were hoping to hang around until the 4th and steal one, those days are gone. This team expects to win every week, the problem is they just don't know how. (see comment above)
Realistically, the worst you could see from this team next year is this year. This team has too much talent. Barring injury, the absolute worst this team could do next year is repeat this year. Do I want to go through this? No. In order to get a "known commodity" from what's out there this year we would wind up switching our defense at the very least.
The upside for this team? Very deep into the playoffs. If you draft well (check) and if you get good coaching (not checked yet) this team's first forray into the playoffs could be a deep run. If/when this team gets into the playoffs its not going to be a 9-7 sneak. This team is bound to figure it out at some point, and bust out with a 11-5/12-4 season.
That brings me to my next point, this team doesn't know how to win (also tied to the veteran issue above). That might be the hardest thing about coming back from a 2-14 team. Changing the culture.
So what do you do with all of this? Here's my plan, yours may differ. Tell Kubes he has 20+ games to win his next contract. Don't make him a lame duck coach, explain to the coaches and the team that he is on a 20 game contract. He essentially has 8 preseason games (4 reg this year and 4 real preseason games). Evaluate and find what parts you are really missing. Next year it is playoffs, or no new contract.
Why? Why? Why? The bottom line is this. You are going to add talent, and there aren't many players you risk losing this offseason. The likelyhood that you look any worse to a potential coach (I think Dungy will coach the year after next) is little to none. You need to call Kubes in and tell him to start coaching. Its time for him to stop thinking and start coaching. You'll get him the RB that can hold onto the ball, you'll give Smith the money to go grab a Safety and a Corner and a DT. Right or wrong, its clear that Kubes had the wrong guy as his DC. That is no longer an issue, Bush has this defense playing like it should. On offense we are an interior lineman and a dependable rb away from rivaling the greatest show on turf. You potentially lose 1 year of rebuilding time by keeping him. You have him under contract anyway and there is a good chance that he will figure it out. When Kubiak sits down and evaluates this season, I think he's going to see he was coaching like he didn't have the talent to win. He'll see that he didn't need the gimmiks, the HB passes. He is close to being a premier coach, we are close to being a premier franchise.
The reality is, whenever you let him go, you are going to be at the top of a short list of proven coache's desires. You're going to have a ton of talent and an owner with a history of loyalty. You'll basically have your pick and can go in whatever direction you want. Its not a fun position to be in, but this team is in a much better position than it has been.
Mike
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