kastofsna
Hall of Fame
per KC Joyner, ESPN:
Suh is a seemingly clear-cut choice for the Bucs, Browns or whomever ends up with the No. 1 pick this April.
One of the rarest things to find in a defensive player is the ability to dominate a game. In seven seasons of breaking down NFL games, I have seen multiple skill position players carry their teams, but in that time I have seen only two defensive players -- Dwight Freeney in 2003 and Jason Taylor in 2006 -- impact the game like the Tom Bradys and Peyton Mannings of the world.
After looking at tape from six games of Ndamukong Suh's season (vs. Texas Tech, vs. Iowa State, vs. Oklahoma, at Kansas, vs. Kansas State and at Colorado), I can now add a collegiate-level defender to that list. To say that his performance in these games was superb doesn't even do it justice.
To illustrate the specifics, let's start with running game. The fifty runs directed at Suh's Point of Attack (POA) gained a meager 116 yards, or only 2.3 yards per attempt. That is impressive enough -- but Suh also won 18 of the POA blocks. That equates to an outstanding 35.3% POA win rate overall, but it gets even better when the 23 double-team blocks are taken out of the equation. Suh won 14 of 32 POA blocks when single teamed, which equates to a ridiculously high 43.8% one-on-one POA win rate.
It didn't even matter what kind of run teams directed at him. He won seven of the nineteen slant play POA blocks and six of the fifteen counter play POA blocks. Iowa State got the bright idea to try to trap him but he won two of the four trap POA blocks and the Cyclones ended up gaining only four yards on those runs.
As lights out as his run totals were, it was his consistent impact against the pass that stood out the most. To get a sense of just how great Suh was here, consider the splash play totals of the two other defensive tackles covered in the Draft Lab series up to this point (splash plays being defined as when a defender does something to negatively impact a passing play). Gerald McCoy had 10 splash plays in five games and Marvin Austin had three splash plays in five games; both ended up getting TFS Draft Lab seals of approval.
Suh had 25 splash plays in his six games, or double the combined total of McCoy and Austin over a 10-game period. As insanely impressive as the overall total is, what was most amazing was Suh's per game consistency in this metric. He posted three splash plays against Texas Tech, four against Iowa State, five against Oklahoma, two against Kansas, five against Kansas State and six against Colorado.
The overall splash play numbers are great, but it also worth noting that ten of them came against some form of a double or triple team. That indicates Suh can beat multiple blockers but the fifteen single-blocking splash plays he racked up proves it is simply foolhardy to attempt to keep him out of the backfield with one blocker.
Suh also had an impact on special teams with two blocked field goals and a blocked point after touchdown attempt.
That should be enough, but my scouting eye also noted that -- believe it or not -- Suh may actually have some untapped upside potential as a pass rusher. He has a good swim move but he leans on the bull rush very heavily. It's almost as if he wants to do the bull move every time out and then decides to add a couple of extra moves on the fly if the bull isn't working. A guy like Albert Haynesworth can get away with that type of approach in the NFL because he's 6-foot-5 and 350 pounds. Suh is 6-foot-4 and 300 pounds, which is big in real life but isn't overwhelming for a pro defensive tackle. Suh will need to learn mastery of other pass rush moves, but when he does that he'll be even better than he is today.
The Football Scientist Lab Result: Suh is hands down the best player I have graded in the Draft Lab series. It is said that this is one of the deepest defensive line drafts in NFL history and the metrics say Suh is head and shoulders above his positional competition. He should be the No. 1 pick in the draft and, if I had a vote, I would nominate him for the Heisman Trophy without hesitation. He easily gets a TFS seal of approval.
Suh is a seemingly clear-cut choice for the Bucs, Browns or whomever ends up with the No. 1 pick this April.
One of the rarest things to find in a defensive player is the ability to dominate a game. In seven seasons of breaking down NFL games, I have seen multiple skill position players carry their teams, but in that time I have seen only two defensive players -- Dwight Freeney in 2003 and Jason Taylor in 2006 -- impact the game like the Tom Bradys and Peyton Mannings of the world.
After looking at tape from six games of Ndamukong Suh's season (vs. Texas Tech, vs. Iowa State, vs. Oklahoma, at Kansas, vs. Kansas State and at Colorado), I can now add a collegiate-level defender to that list. To say that his performance in these games was superb doesn't even do it justice.
To illustrate the specifics, let's start with running game. The fifty runs directed at Suh's Point of Attack (POA) gained a meager 116 yards, or only 2.3 yards per attempt. That is impressive enough -- but Suh also won 18 of the POA blocks. That equates to an outstanding 35.3% POA win rate overall, but it gets even better when the 23 double-team blocks are taken out of the equation. Suh won 14 of 32 POA blocks when single teamed, which equates to a ridiculously high 43.8% one-on-one POA win rate.
It didn't even matter what kind of run teams directed at him. He won seven of the nineteen slant play POA blocks and six of the fifteen counter play POA blocks. Iowa State got the bright idea to try to trap him but he won two of the four trap POA blocks and the Cyclones ended up gaining only four yards on those runs.
As lights out as his run totals were, it was his consistent impact against the pass that stood out the most. To get a sense of just how great Suh was here, consider the splash play totals of the two other defensive tackles covered in the Draft Lab series up to this point (splash plays being defined as when a defender does something to negatively impact a passing play). Gerald McCoy had 10 splash plays in five games and Marvin Austin had three splash plays in five games; both ended up getting TFS Draft Lab seals of approval.
Suh had 25 splash plays in his six games, or double the combined total of McCoy and Austin over a 10-game period. As insanely impressive as the overall total is, what was most amazing was Suh's per game consistency in this metric. He posted three splash plays against Texas Tech, four against Iowa State, five against Oklahoma, two against Kansas, five against Kansas State and six against Colorado.
The overall splash play numbers are great, but it also worth noting that ten of them came against some form of a double or triple team. That indicates Suh can beat multiple blockers but the fifteen single-blocking splash plays he racked up proves it is simply foolhardy to attempt to keep him out of the backfield with one blocker.
Suh also had an impact on special teams with two blocked field goals and a blocked point after touchdown attempt.
That should be enough, but my scouting eye also noted that -- believe it or not -- Suh may actually have some untapped upside potential as a pass rusher. He has a good swim move but he leans on the bull rush very heavily. It's almost as if he wants to do the bull move every time out and then decides to add a couple of extra moves on the fly if the bull isn't working. A guy like Albert Haynesworth can get away with that type of approach in the NFL because he's 6-foot-5 and 350 pounds. Suh is 6-foot-4 and 300 pounds, which is big in real life but isn't overwhelming for a pro defensive tackle. Suh will need to learn mastery of other pass rush moves, but when he does that he'll be even better than he is today.
The Football Scientist Lab Result: Suh is hands down the best player I have graded in the Draft Lab series. It is said that this is one of the deepest defensive line drafts in NFL history and the metrics say Suh is head and shoulders above his positional competition. He should be the No. 1 pick in the draft and, if I had a vote, I would nominate him for the Heisman Trophy without hesitation. He easily gets a TFS seal of approval.
