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The Bills game should show us how Schaub's decision making has progressed

T

TheRealJoker

Hall of Fame
The Buffalo Bills are currently 10th in the league in yards allowed against the pass (190.4 ypg) but what stands out the most about them is that they are tied for the league lead with 13 INTs and the average QB rating for opponents is 58.0 (2nd best in the NFL). Their pass rush is pretty solid as well (tied for 6th with 16 sacks).

This game will show us how far Schaub has come in his decision making against a very good pass defense. The Bills allowed Delhomme to throw for over 300 yards against them but he also threw 3 INTs. The week before they forced Sanchez to throw 5 picks. I'd like to see Schaub take what they give him like he did yesterday when he was under pressure against the 49ers. He got the ball to OD early and often because they were setting up to stop AJ and he didn't hurt the team with turnovers. If AJ is out or is clearly not healthy enough to be the beast we've become accustomed to its even more important that Schaub does not force things.

We cant count on our running game to get going this week even though all indications are the Bills have a week run defense, allowing a league worst 172.4 ypg on the ground, but it sure would be nice if this were the week our running game all of a sudden turned the corner because we cant count on the passing game to carry the offense with a less than 100% AJ against this team.

It looks like the Texans defense will get to have their rubbermatch against the infamous Ryan Fitzpatrick. With the way our run defense is performing I think we can shut down two good RBs. Now we've gotta see if we can stop that speedster Lee Evans and make sure TO doesn't have a resurgence against our team.

The thing that should concern us most though is their ballhawking secondary against our high powered passing game that can be prone to turnovers from time to time.
 
the reason buffalo is so 'good' against the pass is that they are pretty bad against the run plus the wind means most teams dont throw that much up there because it turns into a bit of a lottery as seen by their high int total

buffalo kinda stinks imo. it will be a season altering blow if we cant beat them
 
Maddict5 said:
the reason buffalo is so 'good' against the pass is that they are pretty bad against the run plus the wind means most teams dont throw that much up there because it turns into a bit of a lottery as seen by their high int total

buffalo kinda stinks imo. it will be a season altering blow if we cant beat them
Click to expand...

That kinda talk is a recipe for a trap game. We haven't earned the right to say any team other than the Oakland Raiders stink. Lucky for us we had a close call against SF giving up an early lead and Buffalo has won 2 in a row just like us which means that there is less of a chance for a trap game.

We need to be 5-3 heading into Indy. Tough division game on the road with a 3 game winning streak would give us some great momentum heading into that game!!!
 
Schaub's and Slaton's turnover problems might be the keys to winning this game. If they can keep from making those costly mistakes, I think we stand a good chance of pulling out a win in Buffalo.
 
Maddict5 said:
the reason buffalo is so 'good' against the pass is that they are pretty bad against the run plus the wind means most teams dont throw that much up there because it turns into a bit of a lottery as seen by their high int total

buffalo kinda stinks imo. it will be a season altering blow if we cant beat them
Click to expand...

Buffalo is allowing a 58 passer rating against them. That has nothing to do with the run. If the only reason people didn't pass against them was because running was so effective, they'd be giving up a normal passer rating.
 
Double Barrel said:
Schaub's and Slaton's turnover problems might be the keys to winning this game. If they can keep from making those costly mistakes, I think we stand a good chance of pulling out a win in Buffalo.
Click to expand...

Buffalos offense doesn't scare me at all. They score points off of other teams mistakes. If we can limit our turnovers, there is zero reason this shouldn't be a blowout
 
gtexan02 said:
Buffalos offense doesn't scare me at all. They score points off of other teams mistakes. If we can limit our turnovers, there is zero reason this shouldn't be a blowout
Click to expand...

My thoughts exactly. I think if we win the turnover battle, we win the game. Maybe that's a simplistic look, but I do not see the Bills as a team that can make a run from a large deficit.
 
Double Barrel said:
My thoughts exactly. I think if we win the turnover battle, we win the game. Maybe that's a simplistic look, but I do not see the Bills as a team that can make a run from a large deficit.
Click to expand...

I would agree but most people said the same thing about the 49ers. Any team with Lee Evans scares the crud out of me. I will never forget his back to back 80 yard TD's.
 
Double Barrel said:
My thoughts exactly. I think if we win the turnover battle, we win the game. Maybe that's a simplistic look, but I do not see the Bills as a team that can make a run from a large deficit.
Click to expand...

I think this games hinges on the weather. If it's raining and windy I think we might be screwed. I don't think we'll be able to keep opposing offenses off the field with our running game. Yes, the Bills have a horrible run defense, but still.
 
I think the wind will dictate turnovers, which will determin the game (shouldn't be a shocker). Right now I'm seeing predictions of 15-20mph WSW winds, partly cloudy with a 30% chance of rain dropping to 20% closer to game time with temps in the mid 40s to low 50s. Obviously it's way to early to determine, but you have to imagine that is pretty much a realistic idea of what the weather will be.

If the wind is going to stiff come game time, your going to see a heavy dose of running...I just hope that they throw in some screens to Slaton, hell, some to OD right over the middle would be nice too (have he gotten one of those yet?)

Just have to wait and see I guess.
 
...well that was a little off topic...but to respond to Joker, yes...we'll see if Schaub avoids going deep into the wind and letting the ball float away from the receiver.
 
It also helps the INT ratio when you face Delhomme (3) and catch Sanchez (5) when he is not playing well.

Schaub has played well on the road, but if the weather is bad he may struggle and the running game will have to improve 10 fold. Mainly if its really windy, because we know Schaub can play in the cold (see 08 Packers W).

Projected Weather for Sunday in Buffalo, NY (Weather.com)
Few Showers
High 51°F
Precip 30%
Wind: From WSW at 16 mph

Their offense kind of scares me only because of the history we have had with a few players, notably Fitzpatrick when he was with the Rams and Evans when he had like 3 80+ yard TD catches (I think it was Evans).

They have actually done OK this season:

@ NE L 25-24
vs TB W 33-20
vs NO L 27-7
@ MIA L 38-10
vs CLE L 3-6
@ NYJ W 16-13 OT
@ CAR W 20-9

I haven't really watched a full game of Bills football this season, but I know they have had some injury issues on the defense and their offense seems inept at times. We have to start this game the same way we started vs the 49ers because their fans will turn on them quicker than VY's career. There was a story I read where a fan raised enough money to buy billboard space to advertise such messages as "It's time to clean house Ralph!"

This is a tough spot for us to be in with a big game @INDY followed by a bye week. We need this win to carry some more momentum into the Colts game.
 
Double Barrel said:
Schaub's and Slaton's turnover problems might be the keys to winning this game. If they can keep from making those costly mistakes, I think we stand a good chance of pulling out a win in Buffalo.
Click to expand...

Schaub's interceptions are a problem? Granted he has 5 this year in six games, but if you consider his 250 pass attempts, that is one interception every 50 pass attempts. Look at the rest of the QB's that lead the lead in rating:

Brees = 1 INT per 40 attempts
Manning = 1 INT per 53 attempts
Big Ben = 1 INT per 43 attempts

Do you consider these three to also have turnover problems, because Brees and Big Ben turn it over at a higher rate than Schaub.

Outside of the INT against Arizona, you can't point to any of the other 4 as having had a significant impact on the game.
 
sandman said:
Schaub's interceptions are a problem?
Click to expand...

Offensive turnovers are ALWAYS a problem. Football 101.

What other teams or players are doing is irrelevant to this organization unless we are playing them this week.

If you think the pick 6 against Arizona helped our cause, please elaborate.
 
Double Barrel said:
Offensive turnovers are ALWAYS a problem. Football 101.

What other teams or players are doing is irrelevant to this organization unless we are playing them this week.

If you think the pick 6 against Arizona helped our cause, please elaborate.
Click to expand...

Thanks for using extreme logic. Of course the best case scenario is that there would no interceptions, but the reality of the situation is that it is not going to happen.

My point was that his interception to attempt ratio is better than most of the other top rated QB's, which is a good thing considering how we have had to rely on the passing game so much in this first half of the season.

Compare that to Slaton's issues with not only fumbling, but his overall lack of rushing production that has led the Texans to rely heavily on the passing game. It is simply not the same context.

And as far as the Arizona INT goes, clearly you decided not to read to the end of my post. Only two of the other picks resulted in scores on the subsequent drive by the other teams. Both were FG's and neither had an impact on the final outcome of the games.
 
sandman said:
Thanks for using extreme logic.
Click to expand...

Extreme logic? BWAHAHAHAHAHA!! yeah, offensive turnovers are a problem for any team is pretty extreme logic... :ok: ...not

Look, last season Schaub threw 10 INTS and had 10 fumbles (losing 4) in 11 games (9 INT, 7 fumbles the year before that in 11 games). His history is what it is, and while he seems to be improving this season (with the exception of the Ariz pick 6), my statement still stands: "Schaub's and Slaton's turnover problems might be the keys to winning this game."

I'm not discounting how well Schaub has been playing through 7 games, and it is admirable that he can be compared to the better QBs in the league.

But, that still doesn't change the simple fact that the Bills have won the past two games by winning the turnover margin and they will try to do the same to us next Sunday. The two key players will be Schaub and Slaton in that regard (you know, the two players that will most likely get the most touches). If they can prevent turnovers, we have a good shot of winning this game.

Is that really extreme? I thought it was rather obvious. :um:
 
As good as his numbers have been, Schaub has thrown his share passes which were lucky not to be intercepted. They've come in the form of throwing behind receivers, throwing over receivers, throwing short of receivers. But what I worry most concerns his thowing a good deal of medium range and, certainly, long range rainbow "floaters." Add that to the the Bill's turnover geared secondary in a wind affected environment..........it, frankly, scares me.:headhurts:
 
Double Barrel said:
Extreme logic? BWAHAHAHAHAHA!! yeah, offensive turnovers are a problem for any team is pretty extreme logic... :ok: ...not

Look, last season Schaub threw 10 INTS and had 10 fumbles (losing 4) in 11 games (9 INT, 7 fumbles the year before that in 11 games). His history is what it is, and while he seems to be improving this season (with the exception of the Ariz pick 6), my statement still stands: "Schaub's and Slaton's turnover problems might be the keys to winning this game."

I'm not discounting how well Schaub has been playing through 7 games, and it is admirable that he can be compared to the better QBs in the league.

But, that still doesn't change the simple fact that the Bills have won the past two games by winning the turnover margin and they will try to do the same to us next Sunday. The two key players will be Schaub and Slaton in that regard (you know, the two players that will most likely get the most touches). If they can prevent turnovers, we have a good shot of winning this game.

Is that really extreme? I thought it was rather obvious. :um:
Click to expand...

Exactly. The Bills have won two games in a row that they had no business winning because they were able to cause turnovers. While it isn't all on Schaub, turnovers are an Achille's Heel this team is still struggling with.

We've looked pretty good on the road, not just this year but for a while. At this point I'm more optimistic than I was against the Niners because I think the 49ers are a slightly better organization than Buffalo. Still, while we have a tendency to play a more complete game on the road (Tennessee and Cincy from this year, GB from last), we often lay utter stinkers (Oakland '08 anyone?). This can definitely be a trap game, especially with bad weather. I'm not so certain we have the strength between the tackles to do much offensively.
 
sandman said:
Schaub's interceptions are a problem? Granted he has 5 this year in six games, but if you consider his 250 pass attempts, that is one interception every 50 pass attempts. Look at the rest of the QB's that lead the lead in rating:

Brees = 1 INT per 40 attempts
Manning = 1 INT per 53 attempts
Big Ben = 1 INT per 43 attempts

Do you consider these three to also have turnover problems, because Brees and Big Ben turn it over at a higher rate than Schaub.

Outside of the INT against Arizona, you can't point to any of the other 4 as having had a significant impact on the game.
Click to expand...

How about the opening drive INT in scoring range against Jacksonville? We score there that could've greatly changed the playcalling late in the game...especially if we were tied in that position where Brown allegedly fumbled (I still think his knee was down and/or he was in the endzone)...
 
Double Barrel said:
Extreme logic? BWAHAHAHAHAHA!! yeah, offensive turnovers are a problem for any team is pretty extreme logic... :ok: ...not

Look, last season Schaub threw 10 INTS and had 10 fumbles (losing 4) in 11 games (9 INT, 7 fumbles the year before that in 11 games). His history is what it is, and while he seems to be improving this season (with the exception of the Ariz pick 6), my statement still stands: "Schaub's and Slaton's turnover problems might be the keys to winning this game."

I'm not discounting how well Schaub has been playing through 7 games, and it is admirable that he can be compared to the better QBs in the league.

But, that still doesn't change the simple fact that the Bills have won the past two games by winning the turnover margin and they will try to do the same to us next Sunday. The two key players will be Schaub and Slaton in that regard (you know, the two players that will most likely get the most touches). If they can prevent turnovers, we have a good shot of winning this game.

Is that really extreme? I thought it was rather obvious. :um:
Click to expand...

My reference to your extreme logic was that ANY turnovers was a problem.
Again, I am not saying that I wouldn't want Schaub to throw a single INT, but it's not going to happen. It is how you manager the turnovers that dictates success in games. The Texans have only lost the turnover battle in two games this year, so like the Bills, the Texans are also going into the game having won the turnover battle the last two games and will try to do so again.

In the context of the 5 he has thrown, with only one having a direct impact on the outcome of a game, I don't see those 5 interceptions as being one of the main problems that has kept this team from being a better team. If we have to pass more to make up for our lack of a run game, we should expect more INT's, just like we expect more passing TD's. It's the nature of the game.

Ranked up against an awful run game, Slaton's fumbles, an ineffective O-line, a defense that can't seem to adjust, can't get to the QB and got their passing defense exposed even though their run defense has improved, and suspect play calling, I would say those 5 INT's are quite a bit lower on the "problem" scale for this team to overcome if they want to make the playoffs.
 
TheRealJoker said:
How about the opening drive INT in scoring range against Jacksonville? We score there that could've greatly changed the playcalling late in the game...especially if we were tied in that position where Brown allegedly fumbled (I still think his knee was down and/or he was in the endzone)...
Click to expand...

You can't assume a score was lost because of an INT, only a scoring opportunity. When you consider that they were only 4-10 on 3rd down and punted the ball 4 times, punted from inside JAX territory twice in the first half, settled for a FG late in the 3rd when they couldn't score a TD from the JAX 13, and the pass interference call on Walter on the TD that would have completely avoided the Brown fumble, and there were more than enough opportunities to make up for a first possession INT that they failed to capitalize on.
 
I was watching the NFL Redzone replays from Sunday. Two of the Bills picks were tipped and the other was badly overthrown by Delhome.

Out of curiosity I went back and watched their INTs against the Jets. The 1st pick was tipped, but was a good INT. The 2nd, 3rd and 5th were very bad throws by Sanchez. The 4th pick was tipped after a bad throw by Sanchez.

I understand a pick is a pick, but 4 of the 8 were tipped balls. I reckon Schaub's ball is a bit tighter than Delhome and Sanchez (definitely a bad day for him). Again, an INT is an INT. Just like a sack is sack. I was just curious.
 
I think the game against the 9'ers showed us A LOT about Schaub's
decision making. Early last year, even when his receivers were WELL
covered, he would launch the ball anyway. If you go back and see his
picks from early last season, that was the case.

His interior o-line consists of two young starters, and a mediocre center with
a high-ankle sprain. Schaub avoided AT LEAST 5 sacks by chucking the
ball out of bounds, or running past the line of scrimmage. I believe he
was sacked 3 times yesterday. One of them, he was hit blind-side by
a linebacker, in the arm he had the ball in. Miraculously, he held on to it.

The other couple times, his receivers were covered and he had no time
to throw it out of bounds without getting called for "intentional grounding."

In those instances, it was smart to eat the sack. It seems that for the first
time as a Houston Texan, he's getting Kubiak's message: "PROTECT THE
BALL. LIVE TO FIGHT ANOTHER DOWN."

I'm not afraid of Schaub f-ing this game up for us. It's a matter of this team
putting TWO good halves of football together. When they do, there are
only a handful of teams good enough to still win against them.
 
sandman said:
My reference to your extreme logic was that ANY turnovers was a problem.
Click to expand...

ahhhh, I see the problem is one of communication. Your extreme assumption is the breakdown, simply because I never said "ANY".

I said offensive turnovers are ALWAYS a problem. Not necessarily because of points, but also because of momentum, too many reps for your defense, and player confidence.

I still don't understand the crux of your original point, because it is a strange jump to my quote that you were replying to:

I said: "Schaub's and Slaton's turnover problems might be the keys to winning this game. If they can keep from making those costly mistakes, I think we stand a good chance of pulling out a win in Buffalo."

You replied: "Schaub's interceptions are a problem?"

Do you see the lack of context on your part? You built a straw man argument, and for whatever reason(s), I decided to play along.

But, back to my original point, do you NOT think that turnovers might be a key to winning this game?
Key word: "MIGHT"

sandman said:
Ranked up against an awful run game, Slaton's fumbles, an ineffective O-line, a defense that can't seem to adjust, can't get to the QB and got their passing defense exposed even though their run defense has improved, and suspect play calling, I would say those 5 INT's are quite a bit lower on the "problem" scale for this team to overcome if they want to make the playoffs.
Click to expand...

PLAYOFFS? Now you're just being delusional. Let's beat the Bills first, okay?

p.s. You're not Schaub's brother, are you? :shades:
 
JWarren14 said:
It also helps the INT ratio when you face Delhomme (3) and catch Sanchez (5) when he is not playing well.

Schaub has played well on the road, but if the weather is bad he may struggle and the running game will have to improve 10 fold. Mainly if its really windy, because we know Schaub can play in the cold (see 08 Packers W).

Projected Weather for Sunday in Buffalo, NY (Weather.com)
Few Showers
High 51°F
Precip 30%
Wind: From WSW at 16 mph

Their offense kind of scares me only because of the history we have had with a few players, notably Fitzpatrick when he was with the Rams and Evans when he had like 3 80+ yard TD catches (I think it was Evans).

They have actually done OK this season:

@ NE L 25-24
vs TB W 33-20
vs NO L 27-7
@ MIA L 38-10
vs CLE L 3-6
@ NYJ W 16-13 OT
@ CAR W 20-9

I haven't really watched a full game of Bills football this season, but I know they have had some injury issues on the defense and their offense seems inept at times. We have to start this game the same way we started vs the 49ers because their fans will turn on them quicker than VY's career. There was a story I read where a fan raised enough money to buy billboard space to advertise such messages as "It's time to clean house Ralph!"

This is a tough spot for us to be in with a big game @INDY followed by a bye week. We need this win to carry some more momentum into the Colts game.
Click to expand...

The NO score is deceiving.

That game was close for three quarters but our offense couldn't stay on the field, and eventually the flood gates opened up in the fourth quarter for the Saints.

Trent had two abysmal outings back to back against Miami and Cleveland. I can't begin to tell you how badly Edwards played against Cleveland other than to mention we lost to a team whose opposing quarterback had 26 yards on two completions.

This will not be a blowout. There is absolutely nothing to suggest this game will be a blowout, either way.
 
BillsFan6 said:
The NO score is deceiving.

That game was close for three quarters but our offense couldn't stay on the field, and eventually the flood gates opened up in the fourth quarter for the Saints.

Trent had two abysmal outings back to back against Miami and Cleveland. I can't begin to tell you how badly Edwards played against Cleveland other than to mention we lost to a team whose opposing quarterback had 26 yards on two completions.

This will not be a blowout. There is absolutely nothing to suggest this game will be a blowout, either way.
Click to expand...

I'll give you this: I imagine it will be a good game. However, I'm thinking this might be Slatons chance for a breakout on the ground. You can't just cover all the weapons we have, and all the ways we will utilize them.

Try to blitz us, watch us screen it, I don't think you have enough up the middle to worry us too much.

Once Slaton gets going on the ground, weather permiting, our passing game will improve tenfold. Watch out! Texans comin to town!
 
DexmanC said:
I think the game against the 9'ers showed us A LOT about Schaub's
decision making. Early last year, even when his receivers were WELL
covered, he would launch the ball anyway. If you go back and see his
picks from early last season, that was the case.

His interior o-line consists of two young starters, and a mediocre center with
a high-ankle sprain. Schaub avoided AT LEAST 5 sacks by chucking the
ball out of bounds, or running past the line of scrimmage. I believe he
was sacked 3 times yesterday. One of them, he was hit blind-side by
a linebacker, in the arm he had the ball in. Miraculously, he held on to it.

The other couple times, his receivers were covered and he had no time
to throw it out of bounds without getting called for "intentional grounding."

In those instances, it was smart to eat the sack. It seems that for the first
time as a Houston Texan, he's getting Kubiak's message: "PROTECT THE
BALL. LIVE TO FIGHT ANOTHER DOWN."

I'm not afraid of Schaub f-ing this game up for us. It's a matter of this team
putting TWO good halves of football together. When they do, there are
only a handful of teams good enough to still win against them.
Click to expand...
Schaub was sacked twice, by himself!

Both sacks came after 4 secs.
 
76Texan said:
Schaub was sacked twice, by himself!

Both sacks came after 4 secs.
Click to expand...

I stand corrected, but he took both of those because he couldn't turn
it over, or risk getting flagged. Go watch Peyton Manning. I used to
wonder why he never got hurt. Last year, when he played the Texans,
there was a play when Mario and Amobi came free. Rather than chuck
the ball away (risking a flag or an interception,) he dives into the dirt!

Sometimes, the smartest play a QB can make, is to take the damn sack.
 
DexmanC said:
I stand corrected, but he took both of those because he couldn't turn
it over, or risk getting flagged. Go watch Peyton Manning. I used to
wonder why he never got hurt. Last year, when he played the Texans,
there was a play when Mario and Amobi came free. Rather than chuck
the ball away (risking a flag or an interception,) he dives into the dirt!

Sometimes, the smartest play a QB can make, is to take the damn sack.
Click to expand...

No, Schaub did not have to take those two sacks.
He had options!
 
sandman said:
You can't assume a score was lost because of an INT, only a scoring opportunity. When you consider that they were only 4-10 on 3rd down and punted the ball 4 times, punted from inside JAX territory twice in the first half, settled for a FG late in the 3rd when they couldn't score a TD from the JAX 13, and the pass interference call on Walter on the TD that would have completely avoided the Brown fumble, and there were more than enough opportunities to make up for a first possession INT that they failed to capitalize on.
Click to expand...

But the fact is the INT took away ANY points they might have had. If they weren't down by 7 the playcalling may have changed. You say the pick 6 in AZ was the only time one of Schaub's INTs had an impact on the game. We had 3 losses and "lost by a yard" in 2 of them. Schaub threw INTs in both of those losses we "lost by a yard" in...I'd say that has an impact on the game.
 
TheRealJoker said:
That kinda talk is a recipe for a trap game. We haven't earned the right to say any team other than the Oakland Raiders stink. Lucky for us we had a close call against SF giving up an early lead and Buffalo has won 2 in a row just like us which means that there is less of a chance for a trap game.

We need to be 5-3 heading into Indy. Tough division game on the road with a 3 game winning streak would give us some great momentum heading into that game!!!
Click to expand...

this has nothing to do with the texans really. ive watched a couple bills games and i dont think they're much good at all.

gtexan02 said:
Buffalo is allowing a 58 passer rating against them. That has nothing to do with the run. If the only reason people didn't pass against them was because running was so effective, they'd be giving up a normal passer rating.
Click to expand...

the wind etc. like kastof said they've gotten crazy turnover luck the last few week with their int's.
 
76Texan said:
No, Schaub did not have to take those two sacks.
He had options!
Click to expand...

The sack before half was a good decision on his play. They had max protect and he was trying to let his 2 or 3 receivers get downfield (and probably across it. He could've thrown it away but was wise to take the sack and let the clock run, in my opinion.

I agree with you that sacks are rarely, if ever, the ideal play. But, sometimes taking a sack shows maturity, decision making, and game management awareness that you want from your starting QB. Clearly, he has developed in these areas.
 
Double Barrel said:
Schaub's and Slaton's turnover problems might be the keys to winning this game. If they can keep from making those costly mistakes, I think we stand a good chance of pulling out a win in Buffalo.
Click to expand...

Schaub's turnover problems? Is there another Schaub on the Texans?
 
I think this game could be a problem only because we tend to play down to our competition. The Bills have played some of the worst teams in the NFL at passing this season, so that plays a large part in the defensive pass rating. They are absolutely awful against the run, so hopefully we can get that going. If SS isn't getting it done, I want to see Moats and Brown getting the carries. I'm not overly worried aabout the Bills O. This Texans D has taken a whole new attitude towards stopping the run and Fitzpatrick looks a whole lot like Shaun Hill. All in all, this is a good yardstick game to see if we will beat a team, on the road, that would should beat.
 
Maddict5 said:
this has nothing to do with the texans really. ive watched a couple bills games and i dont think they're much good at all.



the wind etc. like kastof said they've gotten crazy turnover luck the last few week with their int's.
Click to expand...
Funny thing about luck is it tends to be governed by the law of averages. Turnovers seem like they come in bunches for most teams. Get a few in a row, then turn it over a few times in a row. Maybe the other shoe will drop for the Bills this week and Lady Luck will smile on us and we will get some of the tipped ball INT's we've been missing by inches this season. All in all, IMO the Bills have been much more lucky than good so far. I'm not saying this will be a cakewalk of a game, but this is a team we should beat handily if we're thinking playoffs. They're nowhere near as bad as the Raiders, but definitely in the bottom 3rd of the league.
 
DocBar said:
I think this game could be a problem only because we tend to play down to our competition. The Bills have played some of the worst teams in the NFL at passing this season, so that plays a large part in the defensive pass rating. They are absolutely awful against the run, so hopefully we can get that going. If SS isn't getting it done, I want to see Moats and Brown getting the carries. I'm not overly worried aabout the Bills O. This Texans D has taken a whole new attitude towards stopping the run and Fitzpatrick looks a whole lot like Shaun Hill. All in all, this is a good yardstick game to see if we will beat a team, on the road, that would should beat.
Click to expand...

We have also played some of the worst in the league ourselves. Titans are winless and Oakland isn't really wowing anybody this year. Argument could also be made that Jacksonville and Arizona are two below average to average teams. We got into a "NO YOUR TEAM IS WORST" argument with a couple of 49er fans and many Raider fans. It's a telling sign.
 
JWarren14 said:
It also helps the INT ratio when you face Delhomme (3) and catch Sanchez (5) when he is not playing well.

Schaub has played well on the road, but if the weather is bad he may struggle and the running game will have to improve 10 fold. Mainly if its really windy, because we know Schaub can play in the cold (see 08 Packers W).

Projected Weather for Sunday in Buffalo, NY (Weather.com)
Few Showers
High 51°F
Precip 30%
Wind: From WSW at 16 mph

Their offense kind of scares me only because of the history we have had with a few players, notably Fitzpatrick when he was with the Rams and Evans when he had like 3 80+ yard TD catches (I think it was Evans).

They have actually done OK this season:

@ NE L 25-24
vs TB W 33-20
vs NO L 27-7
@ MIA L 38-10
vs CLE L 3-6
@ NYJ W 16-13 OT
@ CAR W 20-9

I haven't really watched a full game of Bills football this season, but I know they have had some injury issues on the defense and their offense seems inept at times. We have to start this game the same way we started vs the 49ers because their fans will turn on them quicker than VY's career. There was a story I read where a fan raised enough money to buy billboard space to advertise such messages as "It's time to clean house Ralph!"

This is a tough spot for us to be in with a big game @INDY followed by a bye week. We need this win to carry some more momentum into the Colts game.
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I'm happy that the wind is only going to be 16 MPH. I was worried about Schaubs accuracy in a strong gusty wind.

I worry that this could be a trap game. AJ being hurt, the press pumping the Texans up, playing a team with a good defense on the road with a fumble prone RB and struggling running game. I also think that Fitzpatrick is an upgrade over Edwards. Not that that is saying much.
 
TheRealJoker said:
The Buffalo Bills are currently 10th in the league in yards allowed against the pass (190.4 ypg) but what stands out the most about them is that they are tied for the league lead with 13 INTs and the average QB rating for opponents is 58.0 (2nd best in the NFL). Their pass rush is pretty solid as well (tied for 6th with 16 sacks).

This game will show us how far Schaub has come in his decision making against a very good pass defense. The Bills allowed Delhomme to throw for over 300 yards against them but he also threw 3 INTs. The week before they forced Sanchez to throw 5 picks. I'd like to see Schaub take what they give him like he did yesterday when he was under pressure against the 49ers. He got the ball to OD early and often because they were setting up to stop AJ and he didn't hurt the team with turnovers. If AJ is out or is clearly not healthy enough to be the beast we've become accustomed to its even more important that Schaub does not force things.

We cant count on our running game to get going this week even though all indications are the Bills have a week run defense, allowing a league worst 172.4 ypg on the ground, but it sure would be nice if this were the week our running game all of a sudden turned the corner because we cant count on the passing game to carry the offense with a less than 100% AJ against this team.

It looks like the Texans defense will get to have their rubbermatch against the infamous Ryan Fitzpatrick. With the way our run defense is performing I think we can shut down two good RBs. Now we've gotta see if we can stop that speedster Lee Evans and make sure TO doesn't have a resurgence against our team.

The thing that should concern us most though is their ballhawking secondary against our high powered passing game that can be prone to turnovers from time to time.
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I havent read the entire thread yet , but something I didnt see mentioned :

The Bills seem to be playing from behind quite often which may skew the numbers a bit .... teams generally run the ball to eat up clock while they are ahead. I dont think they are quite as bad against the run as these numbers show. Their defense isnt a bad unit , its their offense than cant get much done.
 
I get a different vibe with this team this year, especially during their
road games. They've got a player in Brian Cushing, who made his
ENTIRE COLLEGE CAREER by destroying SEC, Big 10, and ACC schools
in big road games. The vets on this team were here last year, when
they started taking road games after the return of Schaub.

Schaub himself, has been NAILS on the road, and only needed our
defense to play mediocre for us to win. Our defense looks like it has
settled down, and guys like Demeco know how important it is to
win on the road.

Andre Johnson is key, because he opens up EVERY SECONDARY WE PLAY.
Our offense could put up 30 on EVERY DEFENSE just because the man
demands a constant triple-team. Most receivers are about their own stats.
Not Dre. He tells coach Kubes to use him in any manner to get that 'W.'

The key to victory, is getting Slaton to NOT put the ball down. They need
to understand the situations, and not allow for huge momentum swings.
Texans play their best ball, against the Bills playing THEIR best ball, the
Texans still win in a rout.

Win the turnover battle, win the game. It's really that simple, folks.
 
NitroHonda said:
We have also played some of the worst in the league ourselves. Titans are winless and Oakland isn't really wowing anybody this year. Argument could also be made that Jacksonville and Arizona are two below average to average teams. We got into a "NO YOUR TEAM IS WORST" argument with a couple of 49er fans and many Raider fans. It's a telling sign.
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I'll go with you on the Raiders and, to an extent, the Niners, but when we played the Tacks, they were coming off a tough loss to the Steelers and hadn't completely cratered. IMO, that game really took the starch out of them. Division games, regardless of the division, are tough ones to call when you're in the "NO YOUR TEAM IS WORST" argument, because most teams build to win their respective divisions and, because of familiarity, play each other extremely tough. The Cards have been one of the hottest teams in the league the last few weeks, so I hardly see anyone calling them a bad team. Out of 7 games, we've played 2 teams that are really awful and lost 1 of those. This Texans team seems to be trying like hell to turn the corner and learn how to win consistently in this league.
 
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