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KC Joyner Talks Texans, Duane Brown

Texans_Chick

Texans_Chick

Utopian Dreamer
KC Joyner aka the Football Scientist of NYT NFL Blog, ESPN insider, etc, just put up his Houston Texans Lab Results.

He basically reviews tapes of all the teams and then puts all that information together for his book Scientific Football. He is revealing some of his metrics on the NYT Fifth Down blog and asked me to ask him a question.

I gave him a bunch of questions to choose from and he chose those. I am hoping to get follow ups for the rest of the questions on my Chron blog.

I strongly suggest you go over there and read it. I also suggest that you go over there and leave some intelligent thoughtful comments about the post. For two reasons:

1. I believe that if we are to encourage thoughtful analysis of the team, we need to contribute to it. News is a marketplace. If writers know that if they write another Favre piece and it will get lots of page hits, then they will write a lot of fluffy garbage. Comments given to thoughtful Texans talk will encourage more of that sort of talk happening.

2. It's nice to leave comments on blog posts about subjects you have an interest in because those blog posts can educate fans that may not know as much about the team. I enjoy reading thoughtful comments made about other teams, and I am sure teams who are interested in the Texans would want to hear from fans who follow the team closely.
 
excellent stuff, thanks.

the question I would ask him would be what do the metrics say about Dunta Robinson pre/post injury POA? His impact on the defensive unit as he returned from ACL surgery, do his numbers reflect better POA week to week as well as the entire secondary unit?
 
beerlover said:
excellent stuff, thanks.

the question I would ask him would be what do the metrics say about Dunta Robinson pre/post injury POA? His impact on the defensive unit as he returned from ACL surgery, do his numbers reflect better POA week to week as well as the entire secondary unit?
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That was one of the questions. He has talked about Robinson's performance in the past but this is before he looked at all of last year's tapes.

Interview with ESPN's KC Joyner - dated January 19, 2009

KC: "I've had good and bad things to say about Robinson over the years but in the case of a franchise tag, all I can say is look at his YPA metrics over the past five seasons:

2008 - 7.5
2007 - 8.0
2006 - 7.4
2005 - 9.3
2004 - 6.6

To put these into perspective, consider that a YPA of 7.5 or better will typically rank a cornerback in the upper half of the league. Robinson's YPA has been at or near the 7.5 mark twice, has been below it once and has been above it twice. If that's a franchise level cornerback, I'm a Pulitzer prize winner. He's worth re-signing at the right price but I wouldn't break the bank on him."
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I don't understand this comment:

I also have reservations about Brown’s pass-blocking skills because all but two of his sacks allowed were of the one-on-one variety. Those sacks are when the blocker is beaten in a one-on-one matchup and the defender gets to the quarterback within three seconds of the snap. They are the most difficult sacks to get
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No, being double teamed is more difficult than going mano a mano. Mario would love it if everyone singled him because "that made things more difficult." Now for the LT, mano o mano is the hardest to defend because he is left on an island with no help. Bass ackwards.
 
really great stuff (would rep you but have to spread around).

pretty much settles that situation (Dunta) for me at least.

regarding Brown I don't think he was mentally & physically ready for his rookie season, trial by error, his performance did taper off as the season wore him down. this year he should be improved in every area (reflected in his POA) so I'm looking foward see how well he does this season then comparing metrics, I think we'll all have a better understanding just how good of selection Duane Brown was/is?
 
Good article. Had to hurt the former Sage for Pres. fans to read about his lack of good decision making.

I left a post asking about Chris Myer's place on the line and if he thinks Caldwell will push him sooner then later.

I also mentioned two reasons that Brown could improve in that he's working on his conditioning in the off-season and OL coach Alex gibbs.

I know he says a 7.5 is upper tier, but I can't help but wonder how his numbers compare to an Elite CB like Nnamdi or Champ Bailey.
 
infantrycak said:
I don't understand this comment:



No, being double teamed is more difficult than going mano a mano. Mario would love it if everyone singled him because "that made things more difficult." Now for the LT, mano o mano is the hardest to defend because he is left on an island with no help. Bass ackwards.
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Leave that as a comment over there.
 
certainly am excited to see how Brown performs in year two. I feel like that rookie baptism was as good as you can hope for. He's seen the best. Now we get to see if his conditioning and 1 year of experience under his belt can show large improvement.
 
barrett said:
certainly am excited to see how Brown performs in year two. I feel like that rookie baptism was as good as you can hope for. He's seen the best. Now we get to see if his conditioning and 1 year of experience under his belt can show large improvement.
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I have followed Joyner for years. I even bought his book one year. I love the indepth statistical work that he does. Having said that, his conclusions are often very poor. For instance, his book that I bought after the '04 season predicted that David Carr and Kyle Boller would be the two next great quarterbacks. So, when reading his stuff, I kind of ignore his opinion and conclusions but focus on all the statistics that he compiled- they can be helpful.
 
Brown is one of the players I think will have a very good year this season, especially if we have a solid running back corps.
 
dalemurphy said:
I have followed Joyner for years. I even bought his book one year. I love the indepth statistical work that he does. Having said that, his conclusions are often very poor. For instance, his book that I bought after the '04 season predicted that David Carr and Kyle Boller would be the two next great quarterbacks. So, when reading his stuff, I kind of ignore his opinion and conclusions but focus on all the statistics that he compiled- they can be helpful.
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I've learned that the the only way you are going to read someone that you always agree with is to write stuff yourself. Same thing applies for candidates for public office--won't agree with someone's position 100% of the time unless you are running. Of course, some writers and politicians flip flop a lot and contradict themselves, which further complicates things. :cool:

Your advice is good about picking out the stats from the opinion from all those NFL stat peoples. That's sort of what I'm trying to do with the Football Outsiders Almanac series of posts. Get the numbers out for greater discussion. Trying to connect the numbers to the people who know about the team.

After the 2004 season wasn't a completely delusional time to be high on David Carr. His early season stats that season were very good until teams figured out that he was a nicklehead and couldn't throw against Cover-2.

Then the 2005 team was a full team implosion and the staff on the 2006 team learned that he couldn't read defenses and didn't have the work ethic they expected in an NFL QB.

/not intending for this to become an ocho viejo thread
//don't do it.
///seriously
 
infantrycak said:
I don't understand this comment:



No, being double teamed is more difficult than going mano a mano. Mario would love it if everyone singled him because "that made things more difficult." Now for the LT, mano o mano is the hardest to defend because he is left on an island with no help. Bass ackwards.
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Maybe he was talking about the "within three seconds" part as being difficult?
 
infantrycak said:
I don't understand this comment:

I also have reservations about Brown’s pass-blocking skills because all but two of his sacks allowed were of the one-on-one variety. Those sacks are when the blocker is beaten in a one-on-one matchup and the defender gets to the quarterback within three seconds of the snap. They are the most difficult sacks to get
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No, being double teamed is more difficult than going mano a mano. Mario would love it if everyone singled him because "that made things more difficult." Now for the LT, mano o mano is the hardest to defend because he is left on an island with no help. Bass ackwards.
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I think he's right, but he said it in a funny way...

I bet if you looked at the numbers then his statement would be true...

I think it's more likely that a defender gets a sack going against a double team when the QB is sitting in the pocket for a while trying to decide where to go with the ball vs. getting a quick '3 second sack'...

Of course for a defender it is easier to face single covg. vs double covg. but I don't think that's what he was getting at...

As an offensivelineman, if you're giving up a lot of quick sacks then that is really bad...That's 100% on you..

Atleast when you are double teaming on longer developing passing plays you can say that other factors came in to play as to why you are being credited with giving up a sack...
 
Hill may be our most important pick. I still don't think Brown will cut it compared to his draft position. He had a pretty bad year by that breakdown. I know he's only a rookie, so I'm holding out hope, but I don't have much. I've said it a million times: I think he can be an adequate or slightly better NFL LT by his second contract. I don't think he will reach that status while on his first contract.
 
beerlover said:
regarding Brown I don't think he was mentally & physically ready for his rookie season, trial by error, his performance did taper off as the season wore him down. this year he should be improved in every area (reflected in his POA) so I'm looking foward see how well he does this season then comparing metrics, I think we'll all have a better understanding just how good of selection Duane Brown was/is?
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My thoughts on Brown:

1. The best thing he has going for him is being signed off by Alex Gibbs and starting with him week one. Everybody talks about Steve Slaton, and they should, but I'm not sure he has the same sort of season as he did last year without Gibbs. I am not saying Gibbs = magic fairy dust that fixes all tackles, but it is the closest thing to magic out there. If Brown has it in him to be a LT, Gibbs will find it. Gibbs likes converted tight ends, and so do a lot of teams that rely on quick offensive linemen.

2. When Brown came into the draft, he didn't know what sort of team wanted him. There are fat man linemen teams and less-fat man linemen teams. It's hard to prepare for a draft when you don't know how fat a team wants you to be. Even with his girthiness, he had nice measurables through the combine. From the moment of the draft to all the stuff rookies have to do in the offseason isn't much time to drop weight in a quality way.

He says he has dropped weight prior to this camp while maintain muscle. I guess the Texans believe in him, otherwise they would have kept a vet behind him, though the turnstile qualities of Salaam left some to be desired.
 
Texans_Chick said:
My thoughts on Brown:

1. The best thing he has going for him is being signed off by Alex Gibbs and starting with him week one. Everybody talks about Steve Slaton, and they should, but I'm not sure he has the same sort of season as he did last year without Gibbs. I am not saying Gibbs = magic fairy dust that fixes all tackles, but it is the closest thing to magic out there. If Brown has it in him to be a LT, Gibbs will find it. Gibbs likes converted tight ends, and so do a lot of teams that rely on quick offensive linemen.

2. When Brown came into the draft, he didn't know what sort of team wanted him. There are fat man linemen teams and less-fat man linemen teams. It's hard to prepare for a draft when you don't know how fat a team wants you to be. Even with his girthiness, he had nice measurables through the combine. From the moment of the draft to all the stuff rookies have to do in the offseason isn't much time to drop weight in a quality way.

He says he has dropped weight prior to this camp while maintain muscle. I guess the Texans believe in him, otherwise they would have kept a vet behind him, though the turnstile qualities of Salaam left some to be desired.
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I have some doubts about my own ability to recognize a great LT prospect early since I was very high on Seth Wand in 2004. That being said, I'm excited about Brown because of his athleticism, work ethic, intelligence, desire to be good, and what I thought was a good rookie season- particularly considering his lack of college experience at the position. By the way, if something happens to Brown, I have supreme confidence in Rashod Butler to step in and be an above average starting LT.
 
dalemurphy said:
I have some doubts about my own ability to recognize a great LT prospect early since I was very high on Seth Wand in 2004. That being said, I'm excited about Brown because of his athleticism, work ethic, intelligence, desire to be good, and what I thought was a good rookie season- particularly considering his lack of college experience at the position. By the way, if something happens to Brown, I have supreme confidence in Rashod Butler to step in and be an above average starting LT.
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I think there are few players who are inherently great players or are inherently busts. Most players need to be in good situations for them.

Duane Brown is in a perfect situation for him. If he can't succeed, well then it is on him. (and on the Texans for their scouting).

As for Rashad Butler, what gives you "supreme confidence" in him in being an "above average starting LT?" He hasn't played much. If he sees much playing time, I am hoping for "don't get the QB killed" or "don't derail the offense." As I understand it, preparing as a swing tackle isn't easy.
 
Texans_Chick said:
I think there are few players who are inherently great players or are inherently busts. Most players need to be in good situations for them.

Duane Brown is in a perfect situation for him. If he can't succeed, well then it is on him. (and on the Texans for their scouting).

As for Rashad Butler, what gives you "supreme confidence" in him in being an "above average starting LT?" He hasn't played much. If he sees much playing time, I am hoping for "don't get the QB killed" or "don't derail the offense." As I understand it, preparing as a swing tackle isn't easy.
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Here's my Rashod Butler arguments:

1. He looked excellent playing almost every snap of preseason last year.
2. He would immediately become our most athletic player on our OLIne.
3. Very Quick feet, explosive. I actually saw dive through the air in order to cut LBs downfield last preseason.
4. Was a pretty highly rated prospect coming out of college until his illness caused massive weight loss... That has been corrected.
 
dalemurphy said:
Here's my Rashod Butler arguments:

1. He looked excellent playing almost every snap of preseason last year.
2. He would immediately become our most athletic player on our OLIne.
3. Very Quick feet, explosive. I actually saw dive through the air in order to cut LBs downfield last preseason.
4. Was a pretty highly rated prospect coming out of college until his illness caused massive weight loss... That has been corrected.
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special teams player, kept for depth purposes & cost savings only. I do remember watching him play in College (Miami) & liked him as developmental prospect. Bombed out of Carolina, picked up off waivers by Houston. As TC states your "supreme confidence" is a little overstated based on actual production in the league. Actually I like him more @ Guard, fits Gibbs system (undersized/athletic) if Winston is inactive for any reason I would think he would also be 1st off bench to back him up, but I hope we never have to find out.
 
Texans_Chick said:
That was one of the questions. He has talked about Robinson's performance in the past but this is before he looked at all of last year's tapes.

Interview with ESPN's KC Joyner - dated January 19, 2009
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Did he figure in his run stopping ability, his onfield leadership skills, his toughness, or his locker room presence?

That's the problem I have when I look at these types of things. You cannot just take some raw stats and prove a players total value. It's a great start, but it's not the total picture.
 
Porky said:
Did he figure in his run stopping ability, his onfield leadership skills, his toughness, or his locker room presence?
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Did Joyner factor in the lack of pass rush in front of Robinson during his career as a Texan. If the opposing QB had less time to throw, I bet Dunta's YPA number would go down. I would really like to see the CB YPA numbers correlated with the pass rush.
 
Lucky said:
Did Joyner factor in the lack of pass rush in front of Robinson during his career as a Texan. If the opposing QB had less time to throw, I bet Dunta's YPA number would go down. I would really like to see the CB YPA numbers correlated with the pass rush.
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We did a variation of that that in a thread last year, right? But, I think we did rush (counted as sacks) correlated to interceptions and found no correlation. We could maybe do sacks vs. total YPA given up or possibly even sacks vs. passer rating.
 
Texans_Chick said:
Leave that as a comment over there.
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I did, right after you suggested it. Guess they didn't like it since it seems not to have made the cut for posting.

Runner said:
Maybe he was talking about the "within three seconds" part as being difficult?
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That's possible, but I would still differ with him. Often the under 3 second sack is the easiest. Run through James Harrison's sacks last year and see how many he actually physically beat someone v. how often the scheme wasn't accounted for, an assignment was missed, etc. where he ended up just sprinting to the QB unimpeded. That doesn't necessarily say a lot about the OL.

Bottom line, what does a coach do to counter an excellent pass rusher? It isn't put less people on him, it is double team him.
 
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dalemurphy said:
I have some doubts about my own ability to recognize a great LT prospect early since I was very high on Seth Wand in 2004. That being said, I'm excited about Brown because of his athleticism, work ethic, intelligence, desire to be good, and what I thought was a good rookie season- particularly considering his lack of college experience at the position. By the way, if something happens to Brown, I have supreme confidence in Rashod Butler to step in and be an above average starting LT.
Click to expand...

Texans_Chick said:
I think there are few players who are inherently great players or are inherently busts. Most players need to be in good situations for them.

Duane Brown is in a perfect situation for him. If he can't succeed, well then it is on him. (and on the Texans for their scouting).

As for Rashad Butler, what gives you "supreme confidence" in him in being an "above average starting LT?" He hasn't played much. If he sees much playing time, I am hoping for "don't get the QB killed" or "don't derail the offense." As I understand it, preparing as a swing tackle isn't easy.
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Everytime there is some sort of discussion involving LT, I kind of tear up and feel that hard lump in my throat thinking about what might have been with Charles Spencer.:crying:Damn Ron Dayne! I'll always hate you!
 
Lucky said:
Did Joyner factor in the lack of pass rush in front of Robinson during his career as a Texan. If the opposing QB had less time to throw, I bet Dunta's YPA number would go down. I would really like to see the CB YPA numbers correlated with the pass rush.
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Yeah, I don't think anybody claims that just stats or just YPA is the whole story on a player. But it is interesting to look at YPA over time, and YPA in the context of a particular team. Any number or stat can be an agreed starting point for a more contextual discussion.

Pretty certain that the pass rush has been garbage for the last four years.

Also, the flips side is that the Texans have gotten little help for the line with coverage sacks. How many times have you seen teams just dump off-slant pass their way down the field?
 
I found the exchange between Augustus and TT in the comments section truly informative about Duane Brown. Not taking sides but both guys came to the discussion armed to the teeth with information on such a nationally respected publication as the NY Times. I really enjoyed it and will check back in hopes that their discussion gets on.

It was a nice change of pace from the usual "No you're stupid" gunk that gets flung around on many sites.
 
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