2006
This year is the year that makes Houston look fantastic at drafting, and the greatest part is that it's also the year that initially made Houston look like drafting fools due to the Mario Williams/Reggie Bush controversy. Has BSPN eaten enough crow yet? Anyway, I also think that this year shows that draft success needs about a three year history before reflecting on successes and failures. This is something that I take issue with over the assessment posted in the initial link.
Successes: Mario Williams, DeMeco Ryans, Eric Winston, Owen Daniels, David Anderson
Failures: Charles Spencer, Wali Lundy
Williams, Ryans, and Daniels are all Pro Bowlers. They are excellent examples of Houston's good drafting ability and examples of Pro Bowlers being the primary criteria for good drafting.
Winston is a starter. Some people think he is on the verge of being a Pro Bowler.
Anderson contributes a lot and was a 7th round draft choice. However, I'm not so sure that this isn't more of an example of our roster not being great than our drafting ability being great. Actually, Anderson kind of highlights the lack of practical significance to the question. Maybe we have a bad roster but Anderson is playing and producing.
Spencer may have been a good tackle, but he was injured. Woulda, coulda, and shoulda can not factor into whether or not we are good at drafting IMO. Otherwise, I think he would have been counted as a success as well.
Wali Lundy started for us at one point, and Lundy is an example of our roster not being good. I think Lundy emphasizes the importance of whether or not a player is still contributing to your team versus how your roster quality affects the number of drafted players starting for you.
2007
There are still a lot of questions from the 2007 draft. Maybe it's too early to tell, or maybe it just wasn't a great draft for Houston. All of these "pending" category players are contributors. Many of them have even started. But, they all have question marks, and I can not confidently say that they are successes or failures at this point. All of the questions related to this year illustrate that the third year is probably a more reasonable time to begin evaluations being that the hopes for players in the first year have been tested and still need time for triumph. Dramatic, huh.
Successes: Fred Bennett
Failures: Brandon Frye
Pending: Amobi Okoye, Jacoby Jones, Brandon Harrison, Kasey Studdard, Zac Diles
Bennett is a fourth round cornerback and is quality depth. He's even shown flashes of being a quality starter. If he was drafted any higher, I would list him as pending with many of the other players from this draft.
Frye is not on the team anymore and did not contribute when he was on the team.
Okoye had a good rookie year and a rough sophomore year. I think he will be much improved next season under our new coaching staff, but the jury is still out on Okoye.
Jones has had fumble problems, has not developed as a wide receiver, and is rumored to not be focused on football. Jones was a third round pick, so I think this level of scrutiny is appropriate. Jones has also shown that he can be amazing as a kick/punt returner. However, unlike Okoye, I do not think Jones will be working out for us, but I hope that he proves me wrong.
I would consider Harrison and Studdard failures, but they were drafted in later rounds. I do not know of anyone that thinks of either of them as quality backups at this point, but I am finding it hard to categorize either of them as failures just yet. Let's just say that they are not making Houston look like drafting gurus.
If Diles returns from his injury without any problems, Diles is a success. If Diles doesn't return, he's similar to Spencer. I wish Diles a successful recovery. I have not heard of any injury updates on Diles, and he may already be well on his way or even perfectly healthy at this time. We may need to upgrade at Dile's position, but he is still a success as a seventh round starter. Like Anderson, I think Diles is an example of the debate over the quality of the roster.
2008
In the first year, we are probably evaluating too soon. I think it's interesting that the draft looks so much more promising after one year than after two years, but it could also be that 2008 was a better draft than 2007. Only time will tell of course.
Successes: Duane Brown, Steve Slaton, Xavier Adibi, Frank Okam, Dominique Barber,
Failures: N/A
Pending: Antwaun Molden, Alex Brink
Brown is a success at this point IMO. I like Brown's attitude. Brown is a great run blocker and held up pretty well as a rookie against some tough competition. The release of Ephraim Salaam indicates that the Houston front office feels the same way. However, there are still some questions about Brown's conditioning although the HT.com news is careful to report that Brown is better conditioned already.
It would be hard, and foolish, to argue that Slaton was anything but a success, and Slaton is another excellent example of what Houston is capable of in the draft.
Adibi proved to be a good weak side linebacker last year prior to his injury, and he seems to be healthy now.
Okam is a good backup for us since we need his size which is not bad for a fifth round defensive tackle, and Barber seems to be a quality backup as a sixth round safety. Both have some fans that want to see more playing time for them, and Barber even has a potential to start.
Molden has been a good special teams player, but as a third round selection, he needs to develop into a starting cornerback for Houston.
Brink is a seventh round quarterback project, and I believe he is on the practice squad. He may or may not end up contributing to the team in the future, but so far, he hasn't.
Overall
Houston has had success with late round contributors like David Anderson, Zac Diles, and Dominique Barber. Maybe Houston's roster quality led to their opportunities to contribute but, in the end, they are still helping the team succeed, and this kind of drafting ability is one reason why Houston continues to get better and better under Rick Smith and Gary Kubiak.
Even more importantly, Houston has also had major successes like Mario Williams, DeMeco Ryans, Owen Daniels, and Steve Slaton. These are Pro Bowl level players (c'mon Slaton should be in the Pro Bowl). I don't think anyone can deny Houston's drafting prowess with these guys in their portfolio.
If the third year is the best time to evaluate the success of a draft, then I think it is fair to say that Houston is excellent when it comes to selecting players that will contribute. The next couple of years will determine if that 2006 draft was a fluke or not, but I'm believing there will be at least a couple more Pro Bowlers out of these drafts.
