Understanding Talent and need using the Bengals as a negative example.
http://www.nationalfootballpost.com/2009/03/diner-morning-news-bengals-draft-talk/
http://www.nationalfootballpost.com/2009/03/diner-morning-news-bengals-draft-talk/
The Bengals have so many needs that its not unreasonable to think they could draft a back. They have to prepare for all options, and even if a wide receiver that they graded high were still on the board, they would probably select him. The Bengals rely on their coaches to grade the players correctly, and they rely on what they believe they need to determine whom theyll pick. Theyre all about team needs, so no matter where they pick in the round, they go with their predetermined need.
The problem with how the Bengals approach the draft is that no one has seen all the players and can determine who is actually a better player, not necessarily someone who fills a need. They have no one who can look at the draft board and make a horizontal determination as it relates to all the positions. The position coaches make a vertical determination, but theres no one who can look across the board and make the right call as it relates to talent. Therefore, the Bengals allow the debate to begin but are really locked into their team needs. Typically, whoever can argue the loudest and has the strongest opinion will be the voice heard in this kind of situation. So the Bengals course of action in the draft will be determined by team needs and by the coach with the strongest opinion, regardless of his position.
This is why, when you hear someone say a player is a good fourth-round pick, or this person is a third rounder, it really makes no sense. As someone in the league said to me last week about the draft, When you hear scouts or executives talk about rounds and where they would draft them, they really do not get the draft concept. Scouts should describe the player, and based on that description, it will indicate the round. Unless you have seen all the players at every position, its impossible to talk about rounds. Rounds should equate to what a player does during his NFL career. So first and second rounders should be starters, third and fourth are potential starters and fifth through seventh rounders are more likely back-up/role players and developmental players. Nevertheless, no one is a fourth rounder. Art Modell, the former owner of the Browns, used to say about the draft process, When they come out of their mother, they do not say theyre a second rounder. We make them a second rounder.
A player whos picked in the second round is only a good pick if he starts. Its not where the player is picked but how he plays once he enters the league. The critical aspect is to make sure the evaluation matches the selection. I used to laugh after the draft when scouts would come into the draft room, look over the board and say, I thought that player was a second, thought he was a fourth and thought he was a free agent. What does that mean?
Describe the player, describe his role for the team this year and next year, and that will tell you where he should go in the draft. Its all about how they play, not where we pick them.