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Which guys are locks for the first round to you and which guys are borderline?

7

76Texan

Hall of Fame
I'd like to gauge which players might be available to us at 27, so I think we can start weeding them out. Which guys do you think have little chance to go past the 20nd pick?

Personally, so far I see two receivers Keenan Allen and C Patterson; the 3 OTs (the guy from A&M, Fisher, and Lane Johnson), QB Geno Smith.

I'm not quite sure about the other guys (the two Guards, the TE Eifert, the QB Barkley, any other receiver) and especially the D since I haven't looked into them all that much.

Let's start with your locks before the 20nd pick.
 
Dion Jordan will most assuredly be gone by the 20th pick. I think Barkevious Mingo also will be gone (Also uses all of the vowels in the alphabet in his first name (Screw you people who say "Y" is a vowel)). Ezekiel Ansah will probably be gone by the 20th pick. Barkley will almost assuredly be gone as well by the 20th pick (I think he'll be the second QB taken, and usually those guys end up getting traded up for to get picked).
 
b0ng said:
Dion Jordan will most assuredly be gone by the 20th pick. I think Barkevious Mingo also will be gone (Also uses all of the vowels in the alphabet in his first name (Screw you people who say "Y" is a vowel)). Ezekiel Ansah will probably be gone by the 20th pick. Barkley will almost assuredly be gone as well by the 20th pick (I think he'll be the second QB taken, and usually those guys end up getting traded up for to get picked).
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Agree, I think Jordan and Barkley will be gone.
I defer to you guys about the other two, because I haven't watched them enough.
 
With all the speed the receivers at the combine have shown, I am praying Keenan Allen falls to 27.
 
76Texan said:
Agree, I think Jordan and Barkley will be gone.
I defer to you guys about the other two, because I haven't watched them enough.
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Ezekiel Ansah, DE, Brigham Young profile

Barkevious Mingo, DE, LSU profile

EDIT: I think Star Letelouiouioueueieue will also be gone by 20 (heart condition notwithstanding, although I think I read something that it's not as serious as first suspected), and Shariff Floyd will probably be the top 2 DT's taken. I think both have a good chance of being gone by our pick (maybe not 20 though).
 
Defensive Lineman or Outside Linebackers:

Bjoern Werner, Dion Jordan, Ezekial Ansah, Jarvis Jones, and Shariff Floyd.

Defensive Backs:

Dee Millner, Kenny Vaccaro.

Inside Linebacker:

Alec Ogletree

Offensive Lineman:

Luke Joeckel, Eric Fisher, Lane Johnson, Chance Warmack.


I feel about 95% confident that Geno Smith and Matt Barkley will both be gone by pick #20.

The wide receivers are too difficult for me to judge. I would guess that atleast 2 will have been drafted by the #20 pick.

That's 16 guys that I would bet are not going to be available at #27, maybe not even at #20.

I would also assume that a guy like Lacy, or another back, will be selected before pick #27.
 
coon said:
With all the speed the receivers at the combine have shown, I am praying Keenan Allen falls to 27.
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Come on coon; you're not answering the question. Do you think Allen will most likely be gone by the 20nd pick or not.

Many of us, including myself, hope that he'll last until our pick, but I still have to say that he probably won't.
 
TexansSeminole said:
Defensive Lineman or Outside Linebackers:

Bjoern Werner, Dion Jordan, Ezekial Ansah, Jarvis Jones, and Shariff Floyd.

Defensive Backs:

Dee Millner, Kenny Vaccaro.

Inside Linebacker:

Alec Ogletree

Offensive Lineman:

Luke Joeckel, Eric Fisher, Lane Johnson, Chance Warmack.


I feel about 95% confident that Geno Smith and Matt Barkley will both be gone by pick #20.

The wide receivers are too difficult for me to judge. I would guess that atleast 2 will have been drafted by the #20 pick.

That's 16 guys that I would bet are not going to be available at #27, maybe not even at #20.

I would also assume that a guy like Lacy, or another back, will be selected before pick #27.
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This RB class seems a lot like the class that Mark Ingram headed up in 2011. Just not really any known "studs" like Spiller in 2010 or the insane class of RB's in 2008. I could easily see Lacy being the first RB picked after #27. Like I said just not a lot of very very impressive dudes from this class.

EDIT: I'd take Jarvis Jones out right now and put Mingo in.
 
Seminole, I'm not sold on the UT guy, but it looks like he's quite high on several boards. I think I'll go back and watch him some more. Well, maybe I'll wait to hear from others first.
 
b0ng said:
This RB class seems a lot like the class that Mark Ingram headed up in 2011. Just not really any known "studs" like Spiller in 2010 or the insane class of RB's in 2008. I could easily see Lacy being the first RB picked after #27. Like I said just not a lot of very very impressive dudes from this class.

EDIT: I'd take Jarvis Jones out right now and put Mingo in.
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Honestly, I think Jarvis Jones is top 10. Jones is such a playmaker, just a fantastic football player overall. Mingo is kind of on the light side, so I feel that he may not be targeted by some 4-3 teams. Of course, I wouldn't be surprised at all if he wasn't available at #20.

I agree with you about the running backs. I wouldn't be surprised if a guy like Lacy jumps up and is taken in the 1st round though.
 
Should Jarvis Jones' medical condition keep him out of the first round?

Or at least not making him a lock for top 20?
 
TexansSeminole said:
Honestly, I think Jarvis Jones is top 10. Jones is such a playmaker, just a fantastic football player overall. Mingo is kind of on the light side, so I feel that he may not be targeted by some 4-3 teams. Of course, I wouldn't be surprised at all if he wasn't available at #20.

I agree with you about the running backs. I wouldn't be surprised if a guy like Lacy jumps up and is taken in the 1st round though.
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I think Cleveland and Jacksonville moving to the 3-4 (along with the Saints, I believe) will mean that Mingo goes higher, and with Jones have Spinal Stenosis I think Mingo jumped him on a lot of draft boards for 3-4 teams looking for an OLB.

Kniles Davis ran a blistering 4.3 at 227lbs, he might jump up but I think he's going to be a second rounder and I think Lacy will get into the bottom of the first round at best.
 
76Texan said:
Should Jarvis Jones' medical condition keep him out of the first round?

Or at least not making him a lock for top 20?
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I think that is the only thing that will drop him from a top 10 selection. I haven't read anything concrete about the injury at this point. Most articles just repeat that "some teams seem to have taken him off their board," yet I am not really sure where that report originally came from.

We would have to get some more concrete information if we were going to allow the injury to change his stock.
 
76Texan said:
Seminole, aren't you concerned about Ogletree's off-the-field problems?
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If he isn't, I am & I would be willing to bet so are the Texans. I truly doubt he is an option for them. This kid is nothing but a knucklehead IMO. He's not someone who has made mistakes early & turned it around to redeem himself. No, this goofball decides to go & get a DUI right before he goes to the biggest job interview(NFL Combine) of his life. Not very smart & not worth the risk, IMO, if he doesn't at least have enough sense to steer clear of trouble before the combine. He is Cowturd, Raider, Bengal, or Jets material w/ that kind of track record.
 
tru80texan said:
If he isn't, I am & I would be willing to bet so are the Texans. I truly doubt he is an option for them. This kid is nothing but a knucklehead IMO. He's not someone who has made mistakes early & turned it around to redeem himself. No, this goofball decides to go & get a DUI right before he goes to the biggest job interview(NFL Combine) of his life. Not very smart & not worth the risk, IMO, if he doesn't at least have enough sense to steer clear of trouble before the combine. He is Cowturd, Raider, Bengal, or Jets material w/ that kind of track record.
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Man, what a waste!

I've been watching his tapes (2 games at the end of last season and 5 games this year) and he has a lot of potential.

There were some inconsistency when he first came back (after the injury and the suspension), but the good plays were still there.

What I like the most (that I don't hear enough from draftniks) is his coverage skills - next to his versatility as either an ILB or OLB in the 3-4.

In his first game back (I think) against Tyler Bray and the Vols, he had his hands on the ball 5 or 6 times (don't know why he was credited for only 2). His ball skill as a former safety was quite evident.

I think I'll take a flier on him if I was Rick Smith.
He would fit the Texans scheme very nicely, having played in a similar defense and coverage scheme as Wade's.
 
OT
LUKE JOECKEL
Texas A&M
ERIC FISHER
Central Michigan
LANE JOHNSON
Oklahoma

DT
SHARRIF FLOYD
Florida
STAR LOTULELEI
Utah
SHELDON RICHARDSON
Missouri

DE
DION JORDAN
Oregon
ZIGGY ANSAH
BYU
BARKEVIOUS MINGO
LSU

CB
DEE MILLINER
Alabama
XAVIER RHODES
Florida St.

QB
GENO SMITH
West Virginia

OLB
JARVIS JONES
Georgia

OG
JONATHAN COOPER
North Carolina
CHANCE WARMACK
Alabama

WR
CORDARRELLE PATTERSON
Tennessee
KEENAN ALLEN
California

SS
KENNY VACCARO
Texas

ILB
ALEC OGLETREE
Georgia

TE
TYLER EIFERT
Notre Dame


I'm leaning for Barkley to rise past us like QBs tend to do as the draft approaches.
 
Nice, you provide me with a lock for all 20 top spots; now I just have to work on the rest to see who could fit the Texans...

But, are you really confident (90% sure or something like that) all those guys will be gone by the time the Texans pick?

(I kinda agree, but maybe Ogletree will fall due to off-the-field concerns.)
 
76Texan said:
But, are you really confident (90% sure or something like that) all those guys will be gone by the time the Texans pick?

(I kinda agree, but maybe Ogletree will fall due to off-the-field concerns.)
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At this time, yes. Free agency, pro days, trades can shake it up.

I think Ogletree has fallen alot and seems to be a knucklehead, but someone will draft his talent.

76Texan said:
According to Seminole (and I think I agree with him), Bjoerne Werner will also be gone.
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Yeah, I'm on the fence about him.
 
Side notes.

Kipper has now put Barkley ahead of Geno Smith.

CB Desmond Trufant appears on a lot of mock drafts in the first round.
I only consider the 4 guys from NFL, CBS Scouts Inc., ESPN, USA Today, and the top 5 rankings by Mayock and Kiper.
 
Playoffs said:
Yeah, I'm on the fence about him.
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He is a really good player and his game is balanced; he plays the run and pass well. He has a chance to be a stud edge player. He can play in either the 3-4 or the 4-3. No way he lasts to 20 and if for some reason he is available at our pick, I am running to the podium as if my selection card is on fire. Top 10-15 player.

This guy is German born and is coming late to football. His growth at Florida State was scary good. Every year he got ALOT better.
 
76Texan said:
Seminole, I'm not sold on the UT guy, but it looks like he's quite high on several boards. I think I'll go back and watch him some more. Well, maybe I'll wait to hear from others first.
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I'm a UT fan and I'm not sold on him, but every mock I've seen have him going top 20. He has great skills and can be a great player, but he has poor leadership and off the field issues.
 
I'm not too terribly concerned with Ogletree's DUI, perhaps I should be but people do make mistakes. He got in trouble for stealing a bike helmet in September of 2010, less than one month after classes started in his first year. They seem like pretty minor issues that can easily be dealt with. I would pay special attention to his interview and make my decision based on that but I don't think he is a trouble maker.

I wouldn't think that Xavier Rhodes would go before the #20 pick. Perhaps someone will go after him between #20 and #27 but I don't think he is a top 20 player. Having said that, if he has a good pro day with his 40 and quickness tests, he could move up into the top 20 players drafted because of how rare his height, weight, speed combo is for a player at his position with his experience and production. He is still my favorite Seminole.
 
TexansSeminole said:
He is a really good player and his game is balanced; he plays the run and pass well. He has a chance to be a stud edge player. He can play in either the 3-4 or the 4-3. No way he lasts to 20 and if for some reason he is available at our pick, I am running to the podium as if my selection card is on fire. Top 10-15 player.

This guy is German born and is coming late to football. His growth at Florida State was scary good. Every year he got ALOT better.
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I like Werner from the little I saw of him; I just didn't want to look further at that position.
 
SteveSlaton20 said:
I'm a UT fan and I'm not sold on him, but every mock I've seen have him going top 20. He has great skills and can be a great player, but he has poor leadership and off the field issues.
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This one perplexed me. I think he has skills, but I don't quite see a first round grade.
 
Playoffs said:
I think CBs may creep up the boards closer to the draft.
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It always seems to happen. Trufant and Rhodes going around 27 is a pretty good bet. I don't think the Texans will take a corner in round 1, especially if we lose Quin, so it would be helpful if all three went off the board before our pick.

I think wide receiver and safety are going to provide the best value for a need position if we can't retain Quin. A pass rusher that drops would also be exciting considering we are going to need somebody to replace Barwin or compete for snaps at OLB.
 
TexansSeminole said:
It always seems to happen. Trufant and Rhodes going around 27 is a pretty good bet. I don't think the Texans will take a corner in round 1, especially if we lose Quin, so it would be helpful if all three went off the board before our pick.

I think wide receiver and safety are going to provide the best value for a need position if we can't retain Quin. A pass rusher that drops would also be exciting considering we are going to need somebody to replace Barwin or compete for snaps at OLB.
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Trufant is worth at least #20 if not higher. Rhodes is a bit more risky but #27 for him seems about right. It will be interesting to see how Texans deal with Barwin & Quin, I wouldn't be surprised if both stay lessening need to take safety early or another high level pass rusher. I think at some point regardless Texans should pull both positions (CB/S) via this deep class.
 
Playoffs said:
I think Tavon Austin is effectively gonzo after today.
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This happens every year doesn't it? You just start to fall in love with this guy to bolster predictable offense to balance attack adding to Schaub, Johnson & Foster, then his stock rises to a point Texans would need to trade up to acquire his services.
 
TexansSeminole said:
It always seems to happen. Trufant and Rhodes going around 27 is a pretty good bet. I don't think the Texans will take a corner in round 1, especially if we lose Quin, so it would be helpful if all three went off the board before our pick.

I think wide receiver and safety are going to provide the best value for a need position if we can't retain Quin. A pass rusher that drops would also be exciting considering we are going to need somebody to replace Barwin or compete for snaps at OLB.
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If Quin walks and Rhodes is there at 27 he would be my pick. Rhodes is a good tackler who would make a great S. There would be no problems covering the TE's. Plus he has great hands and that should help create more turnovers. I dont see Rhodes falling past the Saints at 15.

This is coming from a guy who wants a WR at 27. It's time to fix the offense. But you dont pass on a guy as talented as Rhodes.
 
steelbtexan said:
If Quin walks and Rhodes is there at 27 he would be my pick. Rhodes is a good tackler who would make a great S. There would be no problems covering the TE's. Plus he has great hands and that should help create more turnovers. I dont see Rhodes falling past the Saints at 15.

This is coming from a guy who wants a WR at 27. It's time to fix the offense. But you dont pass on a guy as talented as Rhodes.
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Rhodes is enticing, I even mocked him somewhere back in early November to Texans but @ CB. While I agree his natural position next level may be Safety I'm not real high on drafting a guy then changing positions.

If Texans lose Glover Quin via free agency the Texans should trade down & look at taking best safety prospect on the board, Cyprien or Phillip Thomas. Both would make excellent replacement.
 
SteveSlaton20 said:
I'm a UT fan and I'm not sold on him, but every mock I've seen have him going top 20. He has great skills and can be a great player, but he has poor leadership and off the field issues.
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76Texan said:
This one perplexed me. I think he has skills, but I don't quite see a first round grade.
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Are we talking about Alex Okafor? He's a good prospect but he wasn't as fast as everybody made him seem IMO. Also, I think he got lucky a few times during their bowl game where he was easily able to get sacks.
 
Texan4Ever said:
Are we talking about Alex Okafor? He's a good prospect but he wasn't as fast as everybody made him seem IMO. Also, I think he got lucky a few times during their bowl game where he was easily able to get sacks.
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No, we're talking abou Kenny V.

It looks to me that some of the plays he made were in a scheme where they allow him to play agressive underneath with safety help over the top .
Heck, even a low-round pick (Alsonso Dennard - Nebraska - Patriots) can do that.
 
steelbtexan said:
If Quin walks and Rhodes is there at 27 he would be my pick. Rhodes is a good tackler who would make a great S. There would be no problems covering the TE's. Plus he has great hands and that should help create more turnovers. I dont see Rhodes falling past the Saints at 15.

This is coming from a guy who wants a WR at 27. It's time to fix the offense. But you dont pass on a guy as talented as Rhodes.
Click to expand...

beerlover said:
Rhodes is enticing, I even mocked him somewhere back in early November to Texans but @ CB. While I agree his natural position next level may be Safety I'm not real high on drafting a guy then changing positions.

If Texans lose Glover Quin via free agency the Texans should trade down & look at taking best safety prospect on the board, Cyprien or Phillip Thomas. Both would make excellent replacement.
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It sure looks like we can still get a play maker at #27.

I don't think there's a need to trade up.
 
steelbtexan said:
If Quin walks and Rhodes is there at 27 he would be my pick. Rhodes is a good tackler who would make a great S. There would be no problems covering the TE's. Plus he has great hands and that should help create more turnovers. I dont see Rhodes falling past the Saints at 15.

This is coming from a guy who wants a WR at 27. It's time to fix the offense. But you dont pass on a guy as talented as Rhodes.
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I'd love to have him, he is my favorite Seminole of the last 3 years. He definitely has the size and athleticism for safety, but you just never know who will make that change or not. If we could make it work, I am all for it.
 
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