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Reasonable price for Barwin? *UPDATE* Signed by Eagles

What is a reasonable price for Connor Barwin?


  • Total voters
    93

thunderkyss

Just win baby!!!
Staff member
Contributor's Club
This is really a gauge of Richard Smith's performance. Barwin's future with the Texans will be front & center of this year's off season. Will Smith be able to land him? Or won't he? Will he have to overpay to keep him?

In order to determine if "we" overpay or not, we need to throw some numbers out there. Most fans generally try to stay away from mentioning a specific number as most fans don't know what "fair value" is or the intricacies of the salary cap.

Most likely we'll get it wrong anyway, so let's just throw a number out there & hope the aggregate will give us something to work with. It's going to be a poll, the numbers should be simple (million per year), & we'll be able to figure an average dollar amount.

Now, when we're talking about cost, the only thing that really matters is his cap number. The cap number usually changes over the career of the athlete, so, to keep it simple, we're just talking about Barwin's avg cap number over the next three years. So if you think, like I do, that Barwin should not count against the cap more than $2M/yr over the next three years, your number is $2M/yr.

If his cap number works out to be $2M/yr for 2013, $2M/yr for 2014, and $6M/yr for 2015, his average would be $3.3M/yr & I would say Smith slightly overpaid.

There are all kinds of other implications involved with a contract which would make it good/bad, but for this exercise we're just worried about his average cap number over the next three years.

So let's get started.

What is a reasonable price for Connor Barwin?
 

IDEXAN

Hall of Fame
Contributor's Club
OK I'll bite: I expect Barwin gets a contract that averages 4 M a year over 4 to 5 years. Now only part of that will be guaranteed of course, but the "total compensation" will average 'bout 4 M a year. And that's market prices, so that meets my definition of "reasonable".
 

Playoffs

Hall of Fame
Some team will overpay for Barwin, methinks.

It's not like it would be difficult to outbid us since we're up against the cap.
 

Lucky

Ride, Captain, Ride!
Staff member
OK I'll bite: I expect Barwin gets a contract that averages 4 M a year over 4 to 5 years.
Jarret Johnson got a 4 year $19 million deal from the Chargers last year. Barwin will certainly get more than that, because he's 5 years younger. I just think he will be overpayed but some needy team. Barwin is not even the 6th best player on this defense. Not worth pursuing.
 
I think they have to consider the future when they offer whatever they offer next year to keep anyone. After his rookie deal Watt is going to get PAID. Maybe the largest contract for a defensive player EVER. If he wins D player of the year again or breaks the sack record then Marios contract will pale in comparison.

So they need to make sure they are ready for that and not blow it.

They'll never let Watt's rookie deal end, IMO. He'll get an extension beforehand, I'd say.
 

infantrycak

Hall of Fame
Jarret Johnson got a 4 year $19 million deal from the Chargers last year. Barwin will certainly get more than that, because he's 5 years younger. I just think he will be overpayed but some needy team. Barwin is not even the 6th best player on this defense. Not worth pursuing.
Not disagreeing but I have to say concerned because if they do move Reed to ILB that looks like they need to acquire 2 new OLB's - one starter and one rotation/depth and that is hoping Mercilus makes a healthy 2nd year leap.
 

IDEXAN

Hall of Fame
Contributor's Club
Jarret Johnson got a 4 year $19 million deal from the Chargers last year. Barwin will certainly get more than that, because he's 5 years younger.I just think he will be overpayed but some needy team.
I agree, if anything I might have understated Barwin's market value. But where's
your vote up there, mine is the only one > 3 M a year ?
Barwin is not even the 6th best player on this defense. Not worth pursuing.
Possibly, but next to maybe only CB, he's plays the most important position in the 3-4. Obviously it therefor commands more cap space, maybe much more cap space than other positions.
 

Lucky

Ride, Captain, Ride!
Staff member
I agree, if anything I might have understated Barwin's market value. But where's
your vote up there, mine is the only one > 3 M a year ?

Possibly, but next to maybe only CB, he's plays the most important position in the 3-4. Obviously it therefor commands more cap space, maybe much more cap space than other positions.
I didn't vote because I don't feel the Texans should make a long term investment in Barwin. I just would rather see the Texans go with Mercilus and Reed at OLB next season.
 

Lucky

Ride, Captain, Ride!
Staff member
Watt
Cushing
J Jo
Ninja
Manning

I don't know ... who you got at 6th?
I would pay Jackson or Quin before I invested in Barwin. And I'm not huge fans of theirs (though Jackson made big strides in 2012). I expect Mercilus to be at least as good, if not better than Barwin in 2013. And Reed and Barwin are probably a push, with Reed still on his rookie deal.
 

76Texan

Hall of Fame
OK I'll bite: I expect Barwin gets a contract that averages 4 M a year over 4 to 5 years. Now only part of that will be guaranteed of course, but the "total compensation" will average 'bout 4 M a year. And that's market prices, so that meets my definition of "reasonable".
I also voted 4, but I think he may command more than that.

Wade should go after Shaun Phillips who might be looking at his last contract.
He's been taking 5; he might go for 4 or a little less with a long term deal. ???
 
The way alot of teams get burned in free agency is paying for a guys outlier performance instead of his average one.

We shouldn't pay for 2011 Conner Barwin...but someone probably will.
 

JCTexan

Hall of Fame
Watt
Cushing
J Jo
Ninja
Manning

I don't know ... who you got at 6th?

I say close between Barwin and Reed?
I would rather have Jackson, Quin & possibly Reed over Barwin.

For this discussion I will say anything over four million a year and he's no longer a Texan. I think another team will possibly spend 5M for him though. Four to five million is what he will get IMO.
 

Lucky

Ride, Captain, Ride!
Staff member
I looked at the upcoming free agent list for DE/3-4 OLB, and Barwin has a lot of competition. Anthony Spencer, Michael Johnson, Osi Umenyiora, Cliff Avril, Matt Shaughnessy, Paul Kruger, Shaun Phillips. Where does Barwin fit on that list? How much $$$ is really out there for these pass rushers? This might not have been the best year for Connor to test free agency.

If he doesn't get a blow your socks offer, maybe Barwin would consider a one year deal in Houston. I doubt it, but I guess there's a bigger possibility than I had originally thought.
 

htowntexans1985

1st Round Pick
I voted 3 mil. But honestly i hope they let him walk. His and cody's antics have grown thin. No need to mention the embarrasing "Letterman debacle". Hopefully he gets his bank i just hope it isnt here. The worlds largest hipster can shine elsewhere
 

76Texan

Hall of Fame
I looked at the upcoming free agent list for DE/3-4 OLB, and Barwin has a lot of competition. Anthony Spencer, Michael Johnson, Osi Umenyiora, Cliff Avril, Matt Shaughnessy, Paul Kruger, Shaun Phillips. Where does Barwin fit on that list? How much $$$ is really out there for these pass rushers? This might not have been the best year for Connor to test free agency.

If he doesn't get a blow your socks offer, maybe Barwin would consider a one year deal in Houston. I doubt it, but I guess there's a bigger possibility than I had originally thought.
I think the Cowboys just put a franchise tag on Spencer.
Is that right or is it too early to do so?
I just glanced through that piece so I wasn't sure.

I say if we can get Shaun Phillips for less, we should do it and save the cap to roll over to take care of Watt and Cushing when the time comess
 

TheDream34

Waterboy
Barwin's antics really statred to get on my nerves. I have no problem with a team wanting to have some fun, but throwing around letterman jackets for the world to see before a game against the New England Patriots is just unacceptable and it just shows that this team is not mentally ready play with the big boys of the NFL. No need to give good money to an average player with goofy looking hair.
 

dc_txtech

All Pro
Barwin's antics really statred to get on my nerves. I have no problem with a team wanting to have some fun, but throwing around letterman jackets for the world to see before a game against the New England Patriots is just unacceptable and it just shows that this team is not mentally ready play with the big boys of the NFL. No need to give good money to an average player with goofy looking hair.
Who gives a crap about hipster haircuts and letterman jackets? All I care about is how he performs on the field and last year he didn't play up to a big contract. I think the Texans offer him 3 to 4 million dollars a year and hope he takes the hometown discount.
 

Lucky

Ride, Captain, Ride!
Staff member
I think the Cowboys just put a franchise tag on Spencer.
Is that right or is it too early to do so?
I just glanced through that piece so I wasn't sure.

I say if we can get Shaun Phillips for less, we should do it and save the cap to roll over to take care of Watt and Cushing when the time comess
The season isnt over yet and the tag numbers havent been released yet.
 

Big Lou

Hall of Fame
This is really a gauge of Richard Smith's performance. Barwin's future with the Texans will be front & center of this year's off season. Will Smith be able to land him? Or won't he? Will he have to overpay to keep him?

Did we fire Wade? Richard Smith is back?
 

Norg

-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-
we based on production and skill and future protentional


so that saying lets just let him walk and get it over with
 

Insideop

All Pro
I agree and should have said they cant discuss it until after the third year, which is next year.

After next year they will need to give him MAJOR money, or he could potentially hold out.
This should be the Texans top concern for next year but they have to start planning now. And who they resign this year will probably have a huge impact in what they can give to Watt next year. If Barwin or any of the others are asking too much the Texans should let them go test the market. If there are no takers for some then they can come back for lesser $$$. Personally, I would rather the Texans try to sign Quin and McCain than Barwin. Realistically, I know the Texans are going to lose some players every year they don't want to from now on because of the cap. They'll just have to keep restocking through the draft. But, they cannot lose Watt! He's just too good. A "once in a lifetime" player that's a game changer! :swatter:
 

BigBull17

Hall of Fame
OK I'll bite: I expect Barwin gets a contract that averages 4 M a year over 4 to 5 years. Now only part of that will be guaranteed of course, but the "total compensation" will average 'bout 4 M a year. And that's market prices, so that meets my definition of "reasonable".
If they give his sorry ass 4m/year we're fooked. That would be a terrible contract.
 

thunderkyss

Just win baby!!!
Staff member
Contributor's Club
Chose the lowest price because i couldn't go lower.

Do not want.
I've seen this at least three times.... interesting.

So far, we've got 37 votes for $119M for an average of $3.2M

Which I could live with. However, if I were Barwin, I'd hold out for at least a 1 year $5M deal & get a do over. I'd probably do it if I were a Texan, if Wade wants him, but he would be the SOLB. If he's not good with playing that position, I'd let him walk.

I think he can get 5 to 8 sacks from that position. Probably the same as WOLB, but we need double digits from the WOLB & Barwin just isn't that guy.

Anyway. Thought I'd look up T-Sizzle's Contract. 6 Years, $62M or $10.3M/yr.
 

HOU-TEX

Ah, Football!
He'd test the market if he's wise. He should get someone to bite on a decent payday even with all the FA's Lucky pointed out. Considering he supposedly turned down an previous offer from the Texans, I highly doubt he'll like what he'll be offered this season. He made a mistake not accepting that offer and he likely lost out on millions.

I like the guy, but he's not producing up to what the position requires of him. I mean, Watt and Smith inside are taking the double teams leaving the outside with one on ones. I understand you can't win them all, but dadgum
 

Dutchrudder

Hall of Fame
I'd offer him a 1 year 4 million dollar deal as a "prove it" type of contract. If he really wants to stay in Houston, he can do well in 2013 and we can negotiate again next year. There's no point in giving him 4 years, 24 million with 12 guaranteed, which is what I think he will get offered by a needy team with lots of capspace. I don't think he's worth that much to the Texans right now.
 

Corrosion

Idealist
Staff member
Watt
Cushing
J Jo
Ninja
Manning

I don't know ... who you got at 6th?

I say close between Barwin and Reed?
I'd put Glover Quin and Kareem Jackson ahead of Barwin .... TBH , Im more concerned with resigning Quin than Barwin.

I do believe that Barwin's role changed significantly after Cushing went down .... prior to that , he was almost always in attack mode going after the QB , post Cushing injury we saw him in coverage quite often chasing RB's around (not so much TE's) .... and he did a reasonably good job.

He didnt put up big sack numbers but he was getting pressure often getting there a half step late. I dont think he had as bad a year as some others do .... and wouldnt mind him returning at the right price (~3m-3.5m) tho I'd really have to see how that affects other positions - especially Quin.
 

BullBlitz

Section 331
I voted on the basis of what would be reasonable to pay Barwin within the Texans organization and their pay scale.

So, I voted $7 million, given the contract that they gave Matt Schaub last year on a hope and a dream that he would miraculously have a great 2012.

On the other hand, it would also be like them to just let him go like they did Leach. If they do, I hope he goes to the Colts, Patriots, Ravens or Broncos and be on a fast path to a Ring.
 

thunderkyss

Just win baby!!!
Staff member
Contributor's Club
So, I voted $7 million, given the contract that they gave Matt Schaub last year on a hope and a dream that he would miraculously have a great 2012.
If Schaub played as well as we had hoped & we won the Super Bowl he'd be looking for $20M/yr like Flacco. Instead, we payed Schaub $12M/yr

How much do you think we should be paying a 12 win QB, a division champion QB, who played in the divisional round of the play offs?

He's had a 90% QBr since 2008, better than 60% completions since 2007. 4000 yards a season (even in winning seasons) or on pace for 4000 yards since the day he started for the Houston Texans.

How much do you think he should have been paid? Should we have just let him go?

Connor Barwin doesn't do crap in a contract year & you want to pay him $7M/yr or you hope he goes to another team & compete for a ring... how much do you think we should have paid Matt Schaub who has consistently been a better QB than Barwin has been a pass rusher over a longer period of time?
 

BullBlitz

Section 331
If Schaub played as well as we had hoped & we won the Super Bowl he'd be looking for $20M/yr like Flacco. Instead, we payed Schaub $12M/yr

How much do you think we should be paying a 12 win QB, a division champion QB, who played in the divisional round of the play offs?

He's had a 90% QBr since 2008, better than 60% completions since 2007. 4000 yards a season (even in winning seasons) or on pace for 4000 yards since the day he started for the Houston Texans.

How much do you think he should have been paid? Should we have just let him go?

Connor Barwin doesn't do crap in a contract year & you want to pay him $7M/yr or you hope he goes to another team & compete for a ring... how much do you think we should have paid Matt Schaub who has consistently been a better QB than Barwin has been a pass rusher over a longer period of time?
I couldn't care less about Schaub's QBR, his passing stats, or his pro bowls.

I see a QB that has been here for several years, wins low pressure regular season games, loses under the bright lights, and hasn't been enough of a difference to get the team to an AFC Title game, much less a Super Bowl.

I wouldn't have extended him last year. His contract wasn't up.
 

BullBlitz

Section 331
Still... if you think Barwin is worth $7M/yr, how much do you think Schaub is worth?
I didn't communicate it well. I don't that either is really worth keeping.

I was saying that since we are paying Schaub the big contract and not getting much in return for it, then why not overpay Barwin too?
 

BullBlitz

Section 331
Much clearer..... thanks.

How much should we pay for a starting QB?
I freely admit that I have no idea. I don't follow salaries. My sense is that you do, and I would be interested in hearing your view.

Schaub was here for years prior to 2012 and really hadn't done much. Why they believed that they had to extend his contract just doesn't make sense to me.
 

thunderkyss

Just win baby!!!
Staff member
Contributor's Club
I freely admit that I have no idea. I don't follow salaries. My sense is that you do, and I would be interested in hearing your view.

Schaub was here for years prior to 2012 and really hadn't done much. Why they believed that they had to extend his contract just doesn't make sense to me.
Even though they are three years younger, neither Matt Ryan or Joe Flacco set themselves apart from the avg QB before January 2013. But watching them play, you know they get it & will be better QBs in the future. There were of course questions, but the smart move was to lock these QBs up for the foreseeable future.

There were questions about Ryan's & Flacco's leadership. For Flacco there were & remain questions about his consistency. Schaub, like Ryan are pretty consistent QBs. There were questions about their big game ability, less so for Flacco... both have been answered (more or less) this year, but not for Schuab. This was the year we were going to find out how the three of them would perform on the big stage. But keep in mind both Flacco & Ryan have been in more big games, and failed, than Schaub.

If they passed with flying colors, their respective franchises would have to pay out the Wazoo to keep them. If they locked them up before this "breakout" season, they may get out with a deal. So to offer them the contract before the season is pretty much the franchise saying we have faith in you & your ability.

If you're in the "only thing that matter's is the W" group, then you're going to think Matt Schaub failed miserably. If you understand winning is a team thing & that Peyton Manning & Aaron Rogers were knocked out in the divisional round just like Matt Schaub, then you're going to look deeper, you're going to pull up your list of expectations & guage Matt next to those expectations.

Chances are rocket laser arm & run like a gazelle were not on Rick Smith/Kubiak's list. On the forum Matt's getting an F for the season. Chances are he's getting a B from the front office.

$12M/yr is a little more than competent starting QB money. It is nowhere near elite QB or even top 10 QB money. Top 10 QBs have salaries in the $10M/yr range, but their cap numbers are going to be closer to the $20M/yr that Flacco is asking for. With the cap rules & bonuses & contract structures, it is possible for a savy GM to keep that cap number down as long as possible, but sooner or later they've got to pay the piper.
 

thunderkyss

Just win baby!!!
Staff member
Contributor's Club
Man just let Barwin go...He's not all that...
Eh.... I want Barwin to stay on the Strong side, I want to move Reed next to Cushing & I want to acquire an outside pass rusher.

If we get rid of Barwin, Reed stays at OLB, we need to acquire an ILB & an outside pass rusher.
 

Rey

Guest
Eh.... I want Barwin to stay on the Strong side, I want to move Reed next to Cushing & I want to acquire an outside pass rusher.

If we get rid of Barwin, Reed stays at OLB, we need to acquire an ILB & an outside pass rusher.
I don't really like the thought process of keeping guys just so you don't have to find new guys. I the guys you have are not good, they aren't good.

I think Reed is a bout the same as Barwin is tbh and I really dislike the thought of Reed being an ILB and bringing Barwin back.

I'd rather Reed stay at OLB, draft and bring in some good free agent ILB'...and draft an OLB....

I'm not a big Merciless fan either but sadly I think he has the most upside out of the top top three OLB's from this past year.

But yeah...I don't want Barwin back because I know he's not coming back for a low amount of money. He'd be a good back up though...
 

thunderkyss

Just win baby!!!
Staff member
Contributor's Club
I don't really like the thought process of keeping guys just so you don't have to find new guys. I the guys you have are not good, they aren't good.

I think Reed is a bout the same as Barwin is tbh and I really dislike the thought of Reed being an ILB and bringing Barwin back.
Neither Barwin or Reed are pass rushers, but I think they're good football players. I think Barwin is better than Reed at SOLB, but Reed deserves to be on the field. So it's not that I think Barwin isn't any good, I just don't think he's a pass rusher & shouldn't be paid like one.

But he's a good football palyer.
 
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