Ravens @Texans game probability

[76Texan]

Brian Burke is one of the stats genius.
He has his own website AdvancedNFLStats.com
This article is his regular contribution with the New York Times Weekly NFL Blog.

He put the Texans probability to win the game at 67%

If you love stats, you will love his studies at the site I mention above.
(TX Mike, have I ever mentioned this to you?
I'm sure you will love the site.)

Baltimore and Houston, the top two A.F.C teams by win-loss record, meet this Sunday. No other conference rival is above .500. But while Houston has been dominant so far this season, Baltimore has been exceptionally lucky.

The Ravens’ 5-1 record is misleading, and if there is anything I’ve learned from studying team fortunes, early season records can be very poor indicators of future success. The Ravens are three plays and another 3 points from being 1-5. Justin Tucker’s field goal barely made it over the right upright to win the game against New England. The Browns rookie quarterback Brandon Weeden missed on two passes into the end zone, handing the Ravens a win. The Cowboys mismanaged the final seconds and missed a 51-yard field-goal attempt last Sunday to give Baltimore another win. And the Ravens barely escaped Kansas City, 9-6, one of the worst teams in the league. Such is the razor-thin margin between elite and doormat this season.

The Ravens aren’t the team we all remember, the one that won defense/punt competitions, 13-10. This year’s team features a top offensive squad and a below-average defensive unit. And the Ravens’ defense is now without three of its best players: the pass rusher Terrell Suggs, who has been out all year with an off-season Achilles’ injury; cornerback Lardarius Webb, who tore an anterior cruciate ligament; and the all-world linebacker Ray Lewis, who may have played his last game after tearing his right triceps in the final minutes of last Sunday’s game.

Until last weekend’s loss to the Packers, Houston had been one of the most complete teams in the league. Strong and balanced on both sides of the ball, the Texans look destined to dominate the A.F.C. South. The Texans are above average in nearly every category, barely dipping into average territory in the running game. With home-field advantage, Houston should be expected to be the substantial favorite this Sunday.

 

[Bulls on Parade]

I just watched the Dallas Cowboys go up into Baltimore last Sunday and out-play them, had over 220 rushing yards, and did everything right except win the game. Bottom Line: I'd rather win ugly than lose pretty. Just beat the damn Ravens for the first time in franchise history. I'm more pissed off going into this game for some reason. But anger is good and I hope the team plays with a lot of swagger in this game.

 

[NastyNate]

Good teams find ways to win close games, bad teams find ways to lose them. They could just as easily be 6-0 if it weren't for some atrocious calls against them vs Philly. This is a tough, tough, test.

 

[76Texan]

Ordinarily, I would call this game a tough test, but with all their recent injuries, we should win this one.

Of course, that's why they play the game.

I just have a lot of confidence that we will get it done!

 

[PandapuffTexan]

just like we should of won the packers game..texans are notroious for choking when it matters...this game matters lets see if anyone besides jj watt shows up

 

[Stemp]

just like we should of won the packers game..texans are notroious for choking when it matters...this game matters lets see if anyone besides jj watt shows up

Texans didn't choke that game. Packers played out of their minds. No one was going to beat the Packers the way they played.

 

[Thorn]

Texans didn't choke that game. Packers played out of their minds. No one was going to beat the Packers the way they played.

The Packers were having a good day while the Texans were having an off day. But second guessing the past won't do any good anyway, just like saying the Ravens are lucky to be 5-1. The only thing that matters is who is playing the best that day. There is no reason to think that either team can't win tomorrow. I just hope it's the Texans.

 

[PandapuffTexan]

Texans didn't choke that game. Packers played out of their minds. No one was going to beat the Packers the way they played.

i dont agree if we didnt have pointless penatlys like barwin trying to jump the line...ect...we could of shut alot more packers drives down and it would of been a closer game..but im glad they lost helps them sober up for a game that truly matters

 

[Lucky]

Good teams find ways to win close games, bad teams find ways to lose them. They could just as easily be 6-0 if it weren't for some atrocious calls against them vs Philly. This is a tough, tough, test.

I agree, there is something to be said for winning while not playing your best football. The Texans could have lost in Denver or at the Jets, but they made the plays they had to to win. I like the Texans to win this game, but the running game must improve and the defense needs to bounce back.

 

[dream_team]

Texans didn't choke that game. Packers played out of their minds. No one was going to beat the Packers the way they played.

Packers played out of their minds, but the Texans certainly helped them out. If it wasn't for the two dumb penalties (Posey & Barwin/Manning), it's potentially 17-17 heading into the 4th quarter. Alot different ball game and who knows what happens in that last quarter?

 

[Corrosion]

just like we should of won the packers game..texans are notroious for choking when it matters...this game matters lets see if anyone besides jj watt shows up

In the grand scheme of things .... the Packers game means less than this one as conference games carry more weight when it comes to tie breakers and such. If there was a game they could afford to lose , it was the Packers game.

 

[Grams]

We should have beat the Packers. With all their injuries, they were a team ripe for defeat. They came out ready to play and we did not.

I think this game will show us if the Texans are ready for prime time or have a reasonable chance of making it to the Super Bowl.

We need to be able to beat the good teams, the teams with a winning record.

Most of us agree that we would have beaten the Ravens if we had Matt Schaub as QB. Well this game will show us.

 

[BullBlitz]

Brian Burke is one of the stats genius.
He has his own website AdvancedNFLStats.com
This article is his regular contribution with the New York Times Weekly NFL Blog.

He put the Texans probability to win the game at 67%

If you love stats, you will love his studies at the site I mention above.
(TX Mike, have I ever mentioned this to you?
I'm sure you will love the site.)

Baltimore and Houston, the top two A.F.C teams by win-loss record, meet this Sunday. No other conference rival is above .500. But while Houston has been dominant so far this season, Baltimore has been exceptionally lucky.

The Ravens’ 5-1 record is misleading, and if there is anything I’ve learned from studying team fortunes, early season records can be very poor indicators of future success. The Ravens are three plays and another 3 points from being 1-5. Justin Tucker’s field goal barely made it over the right upright to win the game against New England. The Browns rookie quarterback Brandon Weeden missed on two passes into the end zone, handing the Ravens a win. The Cowboys mismanaged the final seconds and missed a 51-yard field-goal attempt last Sunday to give Baltimore another win. And the Ravens barely escaped Kansas City, 9-6, one of the worst teams in the league. Such is the razor-thin margin between elite and doormat this season.

The Ravens aren’t the team we all remember, the one that won defense/punt competitions, 13-10. This year’s team features a top offensive squad and a below-average defensive unit. And the Ravens’ defense is now without three of its best players: the pass rusher Terrell Suggs, who has been out all year with an off-season Achilles’ injury; cornerback Lardarius Webb, who tore an anterior cruciate ligament; and the all-world linebacker Ray Lewis, who may have played his last game after tearing his right triceps in the final minutes of last Sunday’s game.

Until last weekend’s loss to the Packers, Houston had been one of the most complete teams in the league. Strong and balanced on both sides of the ball, the Texans look destined to dominate the A.F.C. South. The Texans are above average in nearly every category, barely dipping into average territory in the running game. With home-field advantage, Houston should be expected to be the substantial favorite this Sunday.

Thanks for the post. I wouldn't have thought the Texans to be such a lopsided favorite. This is the most interesting game of the year to me, so far.

 

[76Texan]

Thanks for the post. I wouldn't have thought the Texans to be such a lopsided favorite. This is the most interesting game of the year to me, so far.

Every statistical sites that I've seen, including Football Outsiders, Football Cold Hard Facts, the Linemakers (Sporting News), have the Texans ahead of the Ravens, some by a little, some by a lot.

Each has a different way of approaching these stats, so when we combine them all, we have a pretty unbiased view of the teams.

And remember, the Ravens played with some of their best players while accumulating these stats (and the Texans with Cushing for most of the games so far.)

So overall, I don't think it's too surprising to see the Texans being considered as a pretty heavy favorite.